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Volume 13, issue 14
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7153–7182, 2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7153-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7153-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7153–7182, 2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7153-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7153-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 29 Jul 2013
Research article | 29 Jul 2013
E pluribus unum*: ensemble air quality predictions
S. Galmarini et al.
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The main uncertainties regarding the estimation of changes in the Earth’s energy budget are related to the role of atmospheric aerosols. Our study evaluates the representation of aerosol optical properties by different atmospheric chemistry models against remote-sensing observations in order to reduce this uncertainty. Results show that the representation of aerosol optical properties is strongly dependent on the used model.
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Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols are able to absorb solar radiation and they continue to contribute some of the largest uncertainties in projected climate change. One important detail is how the chemical species are arranged inside each particle, i.e. the knowledge of their mixing state. We use an ensemble of regional model simulations to test different mixing state assumptions and found that a combination of internal and external mixing may better reproduce sunphotometer observations.
Rocío Baró, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Martin Stengel, Dominik Brunner, Gabriele Curci, Renate Forkel, Lucy Neal, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nicholas Savage, Martijn Schaap, Paolo Tuccella, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stefano Galmarini
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Particles in the atmosphere, such as pollution, desert dust, and volcanic ash, have an impact on meteorology. They interact with incoming radiation resulting in a cooling effect of the atmosphere. Today, the use of meteorology and chemistry models help us to understand these processes, but there are a lot of uncertainties. The goal of this work is to evaluate how these interactions are represented in the models by comparing them to satellite data to see how close they are to reality.
Marina Astitha, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ghezae Araya Fisseha, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jesper H. Christensen, Owen R. Cooper, Stefano Galmarini, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Bryan Johnson, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Efisio Solazzo, David W. Tarasick, and Greg Yarwood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13925–13945, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13925-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13925-2018, 2018
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This work is unique in the detailed analyses of modeled ozone vertical profiles from sites in North America through the collaboration of four research groups from the US and EU. We assess the air quality models' performance and model inter-comparison for ozone vertical profiles and stratospheric ozone intrusions. Lastly, we designate the important role of lateral boundary conditions in the ozone vertical profiles using chemically inert tracers.
Ulas Im, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jørgen Brandt, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8929–8952, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, 2018
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We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air pollutant levels over Europe and North America, using a multi-model ensemble of regional chemistry and transport models. Results show that ozone levels are largely driven by long-range transport over both continents while other pollutants such as carbon monoxide or aerosols are mainly controlled by domestic sources. Use of multi-model ensembles can help to reduce the uncertainties in individual models.
Stefano Galmarini, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bellasio, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Joergen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Yanko Davila, Xinyi Dong, Johannes Flemming, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Joshua Fu, Daven K. Henze, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jan Eiof Jonson, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Rohit Mathur, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marie Prank, Martin Schultz, Rajeet S. Sokhi, Kengo Sudo, Paolo Tuccella, Toshihiko Takemura, Takashi Sekiya, and Alper Unal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8727–8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, 2018
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An ensemble of model results relating to ozone concentrations in Europe in 2010 has been produced and studied. The novelty consists in the fact that the ensemble is made of results of models working at two different scales (regional and global), therefore contributing in detail two different parts of the atmospheric spectrum. The ensemble defined as a hybrid has been studied in detail and shown to bring additional value to the assessment of air quality.
Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Jason West, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5967–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, 2018
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The impacts of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 ared modeled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of 3. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impact on premature deaths, compared to foreign sources.
Efisio Solazzo, Christian Hogrefe, Augustin Colette, Marta Garcia-Vivanco, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10435–10465, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, 2017
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The work here is conducted within the frame of AQMEII3 and promotes the use of diagnostic methods for the evaluation of air quality models. We highlight the need to move away from aggregated error metrics and to focus on the quality of the information that can be extracted from the model and the observation. This aids the understanding of the causes of model error, providing more useful information to model developers and users than can be gained from common evaluations.
Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Christian Hogrefe, Gabriele Curci, Paolo Tuccella, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augistin Colette, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Astrid Manders, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Alper Unal, Greg Yarwood, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3001–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, 2017
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Stefano Galmarini, Brigitte Koffi, Efisio Solazzo, Terry Keating, Christian Hogrefe, Michael Schulz, Anna Benedictow, Jan Jurgen Griesfeller, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Greg Carmichael, Joshua Fu, and Frank Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1543–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1543-2017, 2017
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We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012–2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives, the experiment organization is presented.
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ulas Im, Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Alba Badia, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Dominik Brunner, Charles Chemel, Gabriele Curci, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Flemming, Renate Forkel, Lea Giordano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marcus Hirtl, Oriol Jorba, Astrid Manders-Groot, Lucy Neal, Juan L. Pérez, Guidio Pirovano, Roberto San Jose, Nicholas Savage, Wolfram Schroder, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Dimiter Syrakov, Paolo Tuccella, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15629–15652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, 2016
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Four ensemble methods are applied to two annual AQMEII datasets and their performance is compared for O3, NO2 and PM10. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill at each station over the single models and the ensemble mean. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way.
Efisio Solazzo and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6263–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6263-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6263-2016, 2016
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A new technique to assess the quality of model results from a regional-scale air quality model is presented. The techniques are based on standard statistical parameters but work on spectral decomposition of model and measurement time series. This allows for the identification of scale-related processes for which the largest divergency between model and observed data is found. The technique is applied to the data collected during the second phase of the AQMEI Initiative.
E. Solazzo and S. Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2535–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2535-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2535-2015, 2015
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Ensembles of results from multiple models require systematic screening according to well-defined and analytical principles described in the paper. The screening guarantees more robust conclusions especially in the case of scenario analysis.
I. Kioutsioukis and S. Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11791–11815, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11791-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11791-2014, 2014
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
E. Solazzo, A. Riccio, I. Kioutsioukis, and S. Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8315–8333, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8315-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8315-2013, 2013
E. Solazzo, R. Bianconi, G. Pirovano, M. D. Moran, R. Vautard, C. Hogrefe, K. W. Appel, V. Matthias, P. Grossi, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, C. Chemel, J. H. Christensen, R. Forkel, X. V. Francis, A. B. Hansen, S. McKeen, U. Nopmongcol, M. Prank, K. N. Sartelet, A. Segers, J. D. Silver, G. Yarwood, J. Werhahn, J. Zhang, S. T. Rao, and S. Galmarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, 2013
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Philippe Ciais, Francesco N. Tubiello, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Adrian Leip, Gema Carmona-Garcia, Wilfried Winiwarter, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Dirk Günther, Efisio Solazzo, Anja Kiesow, Ana Bastos, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Giulia Conchedda, Roberto Pilli, Robbie M. Andrew, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, and Albertus J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 961–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, 2020
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up GHG anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the EU28. The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, aiming at reconciling GHG budgets with official country-level UNFCCC inventories. We provide comprehensive emission assessments in support to policy, facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Margarita Choulga, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ingrid Super, Anna Agusti-Panareda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Nicolas Bousserez, Monica Crippa, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Richard Engelen, Diego Guizzardi, Jeroen Kuenen, Joe McNorton, Gabriel Oreggioni, Efisio Solazzo, and Antoon Visschedijk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-68, 2020
Preprint under review for ESSD
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People are worried that growing man-made carbon dioxide concentrations lead to the climate-change. Global models, use of observations and datasets can help us better understand behaviour of carbon dioxide. Here we separated all sources of man-made carbon dioxide into 7 groups (energy, industry, humans, transport and others), and calculated how certain these yearly and monthly values per each country are. Calculated values will be used in the model to predict carbon dioxide concentrations.
Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, Marilena Muntean, Edwin Schaaf, Frank Dentener, Peter Bergamaschi, Valerio Pagliari, Jos G. J. Olivier, Jeroen A. H. W. Peters, John A. van Aardenne, Suvi Monni, Ulrike Doering, A. M. Roxana Petrescu, Efisio Solazzo, and Gabriel D. Oreggioni
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 959–1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-959-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-959-2019, 2019
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In support of the Paris Agreement, EDGARv4.3.2 provides global annual estimates, broken down into IPCC-compliant source-sector levels, from 1970 to 2012. The anthropogenic CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions were calculated bottom up with international statistics and emission factors for 226 countries and spatially distributed. EDGARv4.3.2 is input for the top-down modelling of the Global Carbon Project and EU policy-making, needing GHG emission estimates for each country at the climate negotiations.
Laura Palacios-Peña, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Rocío Baró, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bianconi, Gabriele Curci, Tony Christian Landi, Guido Pirovano, Marje Prank, Angelo Riccio, Paolo Tuccella, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2965–2990, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2965-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2965-2019, 2019
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The main uncertainties regarding the estimation of changes in the Earth’s energy budget are related to the role of atmospheric aerosols. Our study evaluates the representation of aerosol optical properties by different atmospheric chemistry models against remote-sensing observations in order to reduce this uncertainty. Results show that the representation of aerosol optical properties is strongly dependent on the used model.
Gabriele Curci, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Rocio Barò, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Aidan Farrow, Xavier Francis, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Peng Liu, Astrid Manders, Laura Palacios-Peña, Marje Prank, Luca Pozzoli, Ranjeet Sokhi, Efisio Solazzo, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, 2019
Short summary
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Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols are able to absorb solar radiation and they continue to contribute some of the largest uncertainties in projected climate change. One important detail is how the chemical species are arranged inside each particle, i.e. the knowledge of their mixing state. We use an ensemble of regional model simulations to test different mixing state assumptions and found that a combination of internal and external mixing may better reproduce sunphotometer observations.
Rita Van Dingenen, Frank Dentener, Monica Crippa, Joana Leitao, Elina Marmer, Shilpa Rao, Efisio Solazzo, and Luana Valentini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16173–16211, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16173-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16173-2018, 2018
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The evaluation of air pollution impacts, including on human health, vegetation, climate, and ecosystem health, is an essential component in the design of policies that affect air quality directly or indirectly. We have developed a tool that allows for a fast screening of relevant air pollution impacts from given emission scenarios at the regional to global scale, bypassing expensive numerical modelling of complex atmospheric processes. This paper provides a full documentation of the methodology.
Rocío Baró, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Martin Stengel, Dominik Brunner, Gabriele Curci, Renate Forkel, Lucy Neal, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nicholas Savage, Martijn Schaap, Paolo Tuccella, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15183–15199, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the atmosphere, such as pollution, desert dust, and volcanic ash, have an impact on meteorology. They interact with incoming radiation resulting in a cooling effect of the atmosphere. Today, the use of meteorology and chemistry models help us to understand these processes, but there are a lot of uncertainties. The goal of this work is to evaluate how these interactions are represented in the models by comparing them to satellite data to see how close they are to reality.
Marina Astitha, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ghezae Araya Fisseha, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jesper H. Christensen, Owen R. Cooper, Stefano Galmarini, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Bryan Johnson, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Efisio Solazzo, David W. Tarasick, and Greg Yarwood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13925–13945, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13925-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13925-2018, 2018
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This work is unique in the detailed analyses of modeled ozone vertical profiles from sites in North America through the collaboration of four research groups from the US and EU. We assess the air quality models' performance and model inter-comparison for ozone vertical profiles and stratospheric ozone intrusions. Lastly, we designate the important role of lateral boundary conditions in the ozone vertical profiles using chemically inert tracers.
Marta G. Vivanco, Mark R. Theobald, Héctor García-Gómez, Juan Luis Garrido, Marje Prank, Wenche Aas, Mario Adani, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Camilla Andersson, Roberto Bellasio, Bertrand Bessagnet, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Gabriele Curci, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cornelis Cuvelier, Massimo D'Isidoro, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Camilla Geels, Kaj M. Hansen, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Oriol Jorba, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Noelia Otero, Maria-Teresa Pay, Luca Pozzoli, Efisio Solazzo, Svetlana Tsyro, Alper Unal, Peter Wind, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10199–10218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, 2018
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European wet and dry atmospheric deposition of N and S estimated by 14 air quality models was found to vary substantially. An ensemble of models meeting acceptability criteria was used to estimate the exceedances of the critical loads for N in habitats within the Natura 2000 network, as well as their lower and upper limits. Scenarios with 20 % emission reductions in different regions of the world showed that European emissions are responsible for most of the N and S deposition in Europe.
Ulas Im, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jørgen Brandt, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8929–8952, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air pollutant levels over Europe and North America, using a multi-model ensemble of regional chemistry and transport models. Results show that ozone levels are largely driven by long-range transport over both continents while other pollutants such as carbon monoxide or aerosols are mainly controlled by domestic sources. Use of multi-model ensembles can help to reduce the uncertainties in individual models.
Stefano Galmarini, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bellasio, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Joergen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Yanko Davila, Xinyi Dong, Johannes Flemming, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Joshua Fu, Daven K. Henze, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jan Eiof Jonson, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Rohit Mathur, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marie Prank, Martin Schultz, Rajeet S. Sokhi, Kengo Sudo, Paolo Tuccella, Toshihiko Takemura, Takashi Sekiya, and Alper Unal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8727–8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, 2018
Short summary
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An ensemble of model results relating to ozone concentrations in Europe in 2010 has been produced and studied. The novelty consists in the fact that the ensemble is made of results of models working at two different scales (regional and global), therefore contributing in detail two different parts of the atmospheric spectrum. The ensemble defined as a hybrid has been studied in detail and shown to bring additional value to the assessment of air quality.
Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Jason West, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5967–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, 2018
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The impacts of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 ared modeled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of 3. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impact on premature deaths, compared to foreign sources.
Efisio Solazzo, Christian Hogrefe, Augustin Colette, Marta Garcia-Vivanco, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10435–10465, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, 2017
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The work here is conducted within the frame of AQMEII3 and promotes the use of diagnostic methods for the evaluation of air quality models. We highlight the need to move away from aggregated error metrics and to focus on the quality of the information that can be extracted from the model and the observation. This aids the understanding of the causes of model error, providing more useful information to model developers and users than can be gained from common evaluations.
Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Christian Hogrefe, Gabriele Curci, Paolo Tuccella, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augistin Colette, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Astrid Manders, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Alper Unal, Greg Yarwood, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3001–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, 2017
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As part of the third phase of AQMEII, this study uses timescale analysis to apportion error to the responsible processes, detect causes of model error, and identify the processes and scales that require dedicated investigations. The analysis tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of model biases for ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature over Europe and North America.
Stefano Galmarini, Brigitte Koffi, Efisio Solazzo, Terry Keating, Christian Hogrefe, Michael Schulz, Anna Benedictow, Jan Jurgen Griesfeller, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Greg Carmichael, Joshua Fu, and Frank Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1543–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1543-2017, 2017
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We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012–2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives, the experiment organization is presented.
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ulas Im, Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Alba Badia, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Dominik Brunner, Charles Chemel, Gabriele Curci, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Flemming, Renate Forkel, Lea Giordano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marcus Hirtl, Oriol Jorba, Astrid Manders-Groot, Lucy Neal, Juan L. Pérez, Guidio Pirovano, Roberto San Jose, Nicholas Savage, Wolfram Schroder, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Dimiter Syrakov, Paolo Tuccella, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15629–15652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, 2016
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Four ensemble methods are applied to two annual AQMEII datasets and their performance is compared for O3, NO2 and PM10. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill at each station over the single models and the ensemble mean. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way.
Efisio Solazzo and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6263–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6263-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6263-2016, 2016
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A new technique to assess the quality of model results from a regional-scale air quality model is presented. The techniques are based on standard statistical parameters but work on spectral decomposition of model and measurement time series. This allows for the identification of scale-related processes for which the largest divergency between model and observed data is found. The technique is applied to the data collected during the second phase of the AQMEI Initiative.
E. Solazzo and S. Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2535–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2535-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2535-2015, 2015
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Ensembles of results from multiple models require systematic screening according to well-defined and analytical principles described in the paper. The screening guarantees more robust conclusions especially in the case of scenario analysis.
I. Kioutsioukis and S. Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11791–11815, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11791-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11791-2014, 2014
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
E. Solazzo, A. Riccio, I. Kioutsioukis, and S. Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8315–8333, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8315-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8315-2013, 2013
E. Solazzo, R. Bianconi, G. Pirovano, M. D. Moran, R. Vautard, C. Hogrefe, K. W. Appel, V. Matthias, P. Grossi, B. Bessagnet, J. Brandt, C. Chemel, J. H. Christensen, R. Forkel, X. V. Francis, A. B. Hansen, S. McKeen, U. Nopmongcol, M. Prank, K. N. Sartelet, A. Segers, J. D. Silver, G. Yarwood, J. Werhahn, J. Zhang, S. T. Rao, and S. Galmarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-791-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040
Attribution of ground-level ozone to anthropogenic and natural sources of nitrogen oxides and reactive carbon in a global chemical transport model
Characterizing sources of high surface ozone events in the southwestern US with intensive field measurements and two global models
An inversion of NOx and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions using satellite observations during the KORUS-AQ campaign and implications for surface ozone over East Asia
Influences of hydroxyl radicals (OH) on top-down estimates of the global and regional methane budgets
Evaluation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) sources and sinks and ozone production in Colombia and surrounding areas
The impact of biomass burning on upper tropospheric carbon monoxide: a study using MOCAGE global model and IAGOS airborne data
Temporal and spatial analysis of ozone concentrations in Europe based on timescale decomposition and a multi-clustering approach
Why is the Indo-Gangetic Plain the region with the largest NH3 column in the globe during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons?
Improving the prediction of an atmospheric chemistry transport model using gradient-boosted regression trees
Attributing ozone and its precursors to land transport emissions in Europe and Germany
Nonstationary modeling of NO2, NO and NOx in Paris using the Street-in-Grid model: coupling local and regional scales with a two-way dynamic approach
Constraining remote oxidation capacity with ATom observations
H migration in peroxy radicals under atmospheric conditions
Variability and past long-term changes of brominated very short-lived substances at the tropical tropopause
Quantifying sources of Brazil's CH4 emissions between 2010 and 2018 from satellite data
Atmospheric chemical loss processes of isocyanic acid (HNCO): a combined theoretical kinetic and global modelling study
Inverse modeling of SO2 and NOx emissions over China using multisensor satellite data – Part 2: Downscaling techniques for air quality analysis and forecasts
Worsening urban ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2017 – Part 1: The complex and varying roles of meteorology
Worsening urban ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2017 – Part 2: The effects of emission changes and implications for multi-pollutant control
Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005–2018
Meteorology-normalized impact of COVID-19 lockdown upon NO2 pollution in Spain
Spatial–temporal variations and process analysis of O3 pollution in Hangzhou during the G20 summit
Model simulations of atmospheric methane (1997–2016) and their evaluation using NOAA and AGAGE surface and IAGOS-CARIBIC aircraft observations
The role of plume-scale processes in long-term impacts of aircraft emissions
On the role of trend and variability of hydroxyl radical (OH) in the global methane budget
Evaluation of the CAMS global atmospheric trace gas reanalysis 2003–2016 using aircraft campaign observations
2013–2019 increases of surface ozone pollution in China: anthropogenic and meteorological influences
Quantification and evaluation of atmospheric ammonia emissions with different methods: a case study for the Yangtze River Delta region, China
Improving NO2 and ozone simulations through global NOx emission inversions
Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry–climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: exploring model diversity
Comprehensive isoprene and terpene gas-phase chemistry improves simulated surface ozone in the southeastern US
Evaluating China's anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventories: a northern China case study using continuous surface observations from 2005 to 2009
Modeling stratospheric intrusion and trans-Pacific transport on tropospheric ozone using hemispheric CMAQ during April 2010 – Part 1: Model evaluation and air mass characterization for stratosphere–troposphere transport
Modeling stratospheric intrusion and trans-Pacific transport on tropospheric ozone using hemispheric CMAQ during April 2010 – Part 2: Examination of emission impacts based on the higher-order decoupled direct method
The long-term trend and production sensitivity change in the US ozone pollution from observations and model simulations
Comparison of tropospheric NO2 columns from MAX-DOAS retrievals and regional air quality model simulations
Street-scale air quality modelling for Beijing during a winter 2016 measurement campaign
CRI-HOM: A novel chemical mechanism for simulating Highly Oxygenated Organic Molecules (HOMs) in global chemistry-aerosol-climate models
Northwestward Cropland Expansion and Growing Urea-Based Fertilizer Use Enhanced NH3 Emission Loss in the Contiguous United States
Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015
On the limit to the accuracy of regional-scale air quality models
Effect of changing NOx lifetime on the seasonality and long-term trends of satellite-observed tropospheric NO2 columns over China
A machine learning examination of hydroxyl radical differences among model simulations for CCMI-1
Peroxy radical chemistry and the volatility basis set
The impact of weather pattern and related transport processes on aviation's contribution to ozone and methane concentrations from NOx emissions
Evaluation of a multi-model, multi-constituent assimilation framework for tropospheric chemical reanalysis
Investigation of the global methane budget over 1980–2017 using GFDL-AM4.1
Trends in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime since 1850 from AerChemMIP
Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions
Martin O. P. Ramacher, Lin Tang, Jana Moldanová, Volker Matthias, Matthias Karl, Erik Fridell, and Lasse Johansson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10667–10686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10667-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10667-2020, 2020
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The effects of shipping emissions on air quality and health in the harbour city of Gothenburg were simulated for different scenarios for the year 2040 with coupled regional and city-scale chemistry transport models to evaluate the impact of regional emission regulations and onshore electricity for ships at berth. The results show that contributions of shipping to exposure and associated health impacts from particulate matter and NO2 decrease significantly compared to 2012 in all scenarios.
Tim Butler, Aurelia Lupascu, and Aditya Nalam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10707–10731, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10707-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10707-2020, 2020
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Ground-level ozone (O3) is not directly emitted; it is formed chemically in the atmosphere. Some ground-level O3 is transported from the stratosphere, but most O3 is produced from reactive precursors that are emitted by both natural and anthropogenic sources. We present the results of a novel source apportionment method for ground-level O3. Our results are consistent with previous work and also provide new insights. In particular, we highlight the roles of methane and international shipping.
Li Zhang, Meiyun Lin, Andrew O. Langford, Larry W. Horowitz, Christoph J. Senff, Elizabeth Klovenski, Yuxuan Wang, Raul J. Alvarez II, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Patrick Cullis, Chance W. Sterling, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Steven S. Brown, Zachary C. J. Decker, Guillaume Kirgis, and Stephen Conley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10379–10400, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10379-2020, 2020
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Measuring and quantifying the sources of elevated springtime ozone in the southwestern US is challenging but relevant to the implications for control policy. Here we use intensive field measurements and two global models to study ozone sources in the region. We find that ozone from the stratosphere, wildfires, and Asia is an important source of high-ozone events in the region. Our analysis also helps understand the uncertainties in ozone simulations with individual models.
Amir H. Souri, Caroline R. Nowlan, Gonzalo González Abad, Lei Zhu, Donald R. Blake, Alan Fried, Andrew J. Weinheimer, Armin Wisthaler, Jung-Hun Woo, Qiang Zhang, Christopher E. Chan Miller, Xiong Liu, and Kelly Chance
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9837–9854, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9837-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9837-2020, 2020
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For the first time, we provide a joint nonlinear optimal estimate of NOx and NMVOC emissions during the KORUS-AQ campaign by simultaneously incorporating SAO's new product of HCHO columns from OMPS and OMI tropospheric NO2 columns into a regional model. Results demonstrate a promising improvement in the performance of the model in terms of HCHO and NO2 concentrations, which in turn enables us to quantify the impact of the emission changes on different pathways of ozone formation and loss.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Ray L. Langenfelds, Michel Ramonet, Doug Worthy, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9525–9546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, 2020
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The hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the dominant sink of methane (CH4), plays a key role in closing the global methane budget. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical can influence top-down estimates of CH4 emissions based on 4D Bayesian inversions with different OH fields and the same surface observations. We show that uncertainties in CH4 emissions driven by different OH fields are comparable to the uncertainties given by current bottom-up and top-down estimations.
Johannes G. M. Barten, Laurens N. Ganzeveld, Auke J. Visser, Rodrigo Jiménez, and Maarten C. Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9441–9458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9441-2020, 2020
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Combining satellite and urban air pollution measurements with a meteorology and air quality model, we present the state of air quality in Colombia. We found four distinctly different emission regimes. The simulated pollution levels compare well with satellite data, but the comparison also indicates misrepresentation of prescribed fire emissions and simulated lightning emissions. Comparison of urban measurements requires careful consideration of (nocturnal) boundary layer dynamics and advection.
Martin Cussac, Virginie Marécal, Valérie Thouret, Béatrice Josse, and Bastien Sauvage
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9393–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9393-2020, 2020
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Biomass burning emissions are a major source of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere. Here, the vertical transport that these emissions can undergo until the upper troposphere is investigated, as well as their contribution to carbon monoxide concentrations. It was found that boreal forest emissions were specific to the occurrence of pyroconvection directly above the fires, whereas biomass burning emissions from other regions of the globe relied more on the occurrence of deep convection.
Eirini Boleti, Christoph Hueglin, Stuart K. Grange, André S. H. Prévôt, and Satoshi Takahama
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9051–9066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9051-2020, 2020
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Long-term temporal evolution of ozone concentrations between 2000 and 2015 in Europe was estimated using a signal decomposition technique. The seasonal cycles are correlated with local climate conditions and vary according to geographic region, while ozone levels are indicative of distance to emission sources. The site's environment plays a key role in ozone trends, with the most polluted environments showing the least reduction in ozone, while in less polluted areas ozone has decreased.
Tiantian Wang, Yu Song, Zhenying Xu, Mingxu Liu, Tingting Xu, Wenling Liao, Lifei Yin, Xuhui Cai, Ling Kang, Hongsheng Zhang, and Tong Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8727–8736, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8727-2020, 2020
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Satellite measurements have revealed that the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) has the global maximum ammonia concentrations, with a peak from June to August. Here, we studied the reasons for this phenomenon through computer simulations. Low sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions and high air temperature over the IGP weaken the swallowing of gaseous ammonia by acidic gases. Additionally, the barrier effects of the Himalayas, like a windshield, are also conducive to the accumulation of ammonia.
Peter D. Ivatt and Mathew J. Evans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8063–8082, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8063-2020, 2020
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We investigate the potential of using a decision tree algorithm to identify and correct the tropospheric ozone bias in a chemical transport model. We train the algorithm on 2010–2015 ground and column observation data and test the algorithm on the 2016–2017 data using the ground data as well as independent flight data. We find the algorithm is successfully able to identify and correct the bias, improving the model performance.
Mariano Mertens, Astrid Kerkweg, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Robert Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7843–7873, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7843-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7843-2020, 2020
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We investigate the contribution of land transport emissions to ozone and ozone precursors in Europe and Germany. Our results show that land transport emissions are one of the most important contributors to reactive nitrogen in Europe. The contribution to ozone is in the range of 8 % to 16 % and varies strongly for different seasons. The hots-pots with the largest ozone concentrations are the Po Valley, while the largest concentration to reactive nitrogen is located mainly in western Europe.
Lya Lugon, Karine Sartelet, Youngseob Kim, Jérémy Vigneron, and Olivier Chrétien
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7717–7740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7717-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7717-2020, 2020
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This study presents a new version of the multi-scale model Street-in-Grid (SinG) that interconnects regional and local scales in air-quality modeling in urban areas. The new version of SinG performs the finest coupling between transport and chemistry, leading to a numerically stable partitioning between NO and NO2. Multi-scale, local-scale and regional-scale simulations of NO, NO2 and NOx over Paris are compared to observations, and SinG shows good performance for both local and regional scales.
Katherine R. Travis, Colette L. Heald, Hannah M. Allen, Eric C. Apel, Stephen R. Arnold, Donald R. Blake, William H. Brune, Xin Chen, Róisín Commane, John D. Crounse, Bruce C. Daube, Glenn S. Diskin, James W. Elkins, Mathew J. Evans, Samuel R. Hall, Eric J. Hintsa, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Prasad S. Kasibhatla, Michelle J. Kim, Gan Luo, Kathryn McKain, Dylan B. Millet, Fred L. Moore, Jeffrey Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Tomás Sherwen, Alexander B. Thames, Kirk Ullmann, Xuan Wang, Paul O. Wennberg, Glenn M. Wolfe, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7753–7781, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7753-2020, 2020
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Atmospheric models overestimate the rate of removal of trace gases by the hydroxyl radical (OH). This is a concern for studies of the climate and air quality impacts of human activities. Here, we evaluate the performance of a commonly used model of atmospheric chemistry against data from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) over the remote oceans where models have received little validation. The model is generally successful, suggesting that biases in OH may be a concern over land.
Luc Vereecken and Barbara Nozière
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7429–7458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7429-2020, 2020
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Alkyl peroxy radicals, RO2, are important intermediates in the oxidation of organic material in the atmosphere. It was shown earlier that hydrogen atom migration within RO2 can be important and results in the formation of additional oxidants and large highly oxygenated molecules that lead to more and larger aerosols. In this work we propose a method for predicting the chemical rate for these H migrations in RO2, helping atmospheric models to correctly include these reactions.
Susann Tegtmeier, Elliot Atlas, Birgit Quack, Franziska Ziska, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7103–7123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7103-2020, 2020
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We investigate emissions of brominated gases from the ocean and their contribution to stratospheric ozone depletion. Once in the atmosphere, these gases usually break down in less than 6 months. Their impact on the ozone layer depends on the prevailing atmospheric circulation, since transport to the stratosphere requires uplift. We combine aircraft and ship observations with atmospheric modelling to analyse how, where, and when these gases are transported from the ocean into the stratosphere.
Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Anita L. Ganesan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Nicola Gedney, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Jošt V. Lavrič, David Walter, Matthew Rigby, Stephan Henne, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-438, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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This study quantifies Brazil’s emissions of a potent atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane. The study is in the field of atmospheric modelling and uses remotely sensed and surface measurements of methane concentrations and an atmospheric transport model to interpret the data. Because of Brazil’s large emissions from wetlands, agriculture and biomass burning, these emissions affect global methane concentrations and thus are of global significance.
Simon Rosanka, Giang H. T. Vu, Hue M. T. Nguyen, Tien V. Pham, Umar Javed, Domenico Taraborrelli, and Luc Vereecken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6671–6686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6671-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6671-2020, 2020
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Isocyanic acid, HNCO, is a toxic chemical compound emitted to the atmosphere by biomass burning and by unwanted release in NOx mitigation systems in vehicles such as the AdBlue system. We have studied the loss processes of HNCO, finding that it is unreactive to most atmospheric oxidants and thus has a long chemical lifetime. The main removal is then by deposition on surfaces and transition to aqueous phase, such as clouds. The long lifetime also allows it to be transported to the stratosphere.
Yi Wang, Jun Wang, Meng Zhou, Daven K. Henze, Cui Ge, and Wei Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6651–6670, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6651-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6651-2020, 2020
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We developed four different methods to downscale SO2 and NO2 emissions derived from OMPS satellite observations (in Part 1) for regional air quality modeling at a spatial resolution that is finer than satellite observations. The VIIRS (city lights), TROPOMI, and OMI satellite data as well as surface data are used to evaluate the model. The method of using the top-down emissions from the past month for the air quality forecast in the present month is also shown to have practical merit.
Yiming Liu and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6305–6321, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6305-2020, 2020
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This study revealed the effects of changes in meteorology and anthropogenic emissions on the summer ozone variations from 2013 to 2017 across China by conducting numerical experiments. We highlighted the important but varying roles of meteorology in ozone variations attributed to the synergistic or counteracting effects from individual meteorological factors. Developing future ozone pollution mitigation policies should consider the counteracting impact of meteorological changes.
Yiming Liu and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6323–6337, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6323-2020, 2020
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Surface ozone levels in urban areas of China were increasing despite the implementation of stringent emission control measures since 2013. Our modeling results show that the decrease in NOx, SO2, and PM emissions and increase in VOC emissions contributed to the urban ozone increases due to the nonlinear ozone chemistry and complex aerosol affects. VOC reduction measures should be implemented in the current and future policies to achieve the goal of improving the overall air quality.
Rui Li, Yilong Zhao, Wenhui Zhou, Ya Meng, Ziyu Zhang, and Hongbo Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6159–6175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6159-2020, 2020
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The Tibetan Plateau lacks ground-level O3 observation due to its unique geographical environment. It is imperative to employ modelling methods to simulate the O3 level. The present study proposed a novel technique for estimating the surface O3 level in remote regions. The result captured long-term O3 concentration on the Tibetan Plateau, which was beneficial for assessing the effects of O3 on climate change and ecosystem safety, especially in a vulnerable area of the ecological environment.
Hervé Petetin, Dene Bowdalo, Albert Soret, Marc Guevara, Oriol Jorba, Kim Serradell, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-446, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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To control the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, the Spanish Government recently implemented a strict lockdown of the population, which has strongly reduced the levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), one of the most critical air pollutant in Spain. This study quantifies the contribution of the lockdown on these reduced NO2 levels in Spain, taking into account the confounding effect of meteorology with artificial intelligence techniques.
Zhi-Zhen Ni, Kun Luo, Yang Gao, Xiang Gao, Fei Jiang, Cheng Huang, Jian-Ren Fan, Joshua S. Fu, and Chang-Hong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5963–5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5963-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5963-2020, 2020
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The Weather Research Forecast with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was used to simulate spatial and temporal O3 evolution in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Various atmospheric processes were analyzed to determine the influential factors of ozone formation through the integrated process rate method. This paper provides insight into urban O3 formation and dispersion during tropical cyclone events and supports the Model Intercomparison Study Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia Phase III).
Peter H. Zimmermann, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, Andrea Pozzer, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Andreas Zahn, Sander Houweling, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5787–5809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5787-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5787-2020, 2020
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The atmospheric abundance of the greenhouse gas methane is determined by interacting emission sources and sinks in a dynamic global environment. In this study, its global budget from 1997 to 2016 is simulated with a general circulation model using emission estimates of 11 source categories. The model results are evaluated against 17 ground station and 320 intercontinental flight observation series. Deviations are used to re-scale the emission quantities with the aim of matching observations.
Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Raymond L. Speth, and Steven R. H. Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5697–5727, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5697-2020, 2020
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Aircraft exhaust drives formation of ozone and is a dominant anthropogenic influence in the upper troposphere. These impacts are mitigated by non-linear chemistry inside the aircraft plume, which cuts off part of the ozone production pathway and reduces the long-term impact of aircraft in a way which is not captured by current models. The ice clouds which form in aircraft exhaust ("contrails") also play a role, converting emitted nitrogen oxides into more stable forms such as nitric acid.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-308, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Decadal trends and variations in the OH are critical for understanding the atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on decadal-scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years, and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in ~ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
Yuting Wang, Yong-Feng Ma, Henk Eskes, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, and Guy P. Brasseur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4493–4521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4493-2020, 2020
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The paper presents an evaluation of the CAMS global reanalysis of reactive gases performed for the period 2003–2016. The evaluation is performed by comparing concentrations of chemical species gathered during airborne field campaigns with calculated values. The reanalysis successfully reproduces the observed concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide but generally underestimates the abundance of hydrocarbons. Large discrepancies exist for fast-reacting radicals such as OH and HO2.
Ke Li, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Xiao Lu, Isabelle De Smedt, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-298, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Surface summer ozone has been increasing in China over 2013–2019, despite new governmental efforts targeting ozone pollution. We find the ozone increase is mostly due to anthropogenic drivers, although meteorology also plays a role. Further analysis for North China Plain shows that PM2.5 continued to decrease through 2019 while emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) stayed flat. This can explain the anthropogenic increase in ozone because PM2.5 scavenges the radical precursors of ozone.
Yu Zhao, Mengchen Yuan, Xin Huang, Feng Chen, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4275–4294, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4275-2020, 2020
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We estimated the ammonia emissions based on the constant emission factors and those characterizing the agricultural processes for the Yangtze River Delta, China. The discrepancies between the two estimates and their causes were analyzed. Based on ground and satellite observations, the two estimates were evaluated with air quality modeling. This work indicates ways to improve the emission estimation and helps better understand the necessity of multi-pollutant control strategy.
Zhen Qu, Daven K. Henze, Owen R. Cooper, and Jessica L. Neu
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-307, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-307, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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We use satellite observations and chemical transport modeling to quantify sources of NOx, a major air pollutant, over the past decade. We find improved simulations of the magnitude, seasonality and trends of NO2 and ozone concentrations using these derived emissions. Changes in ozone pollution driven by human and natural sources are identified in different regions. This work shows the benefits of remote sensing data and inverse modeling for more accurate ozone simulations.
Oliver Wild, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Fiona O'Connor, Jean-François Lamarque, Edmund M. Ryan, and Lindsay Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4047–4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020, 2020
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Global models of tropospheric chemistry and transport show a persistent diversity in results that has not been fully explained. We demonstrate the first use of global sensitivity analysis consistently across three independent models to explore these differences and reveal both clear similarities and surprising differences which have important implications for our assessment of future atmospheric composition change.
Rebecca H. Schwantes, Louisa K. Emmons, John J. Orlando, Mary C. Barth, Geoffrey S. Tyndall, Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Jason M. St. Clair, Donald R. Blake, Armin Wisthaler, and Thao Paul V. Bui
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3739–3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3739-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3739-2020, 2020
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Ozone is a greenhouse gas and air pollutant that is harmful to human health and plants. During the summer in the southeastern US, many regional and global models are biased high for surface ozone compared to observations. Here adding more complex and updated chemistry for isoprene and terpenes, which are biogenic hydrocarbons emitted from trees and vegetation, into an earth system model greatly reduces the simulated surface ozone bias compared to aircraft and monitoring station data.
Archana Dayalu, J. William Munger, Yuxuan Wang, Steven C. Wofsy, Yu Zhao, Thomas Nehrkorn, Chris Nielsen, Michael B. McElroy, and Rachel Chang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3569–3588, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3569-2020, 2020
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China has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP by 60–65 % relative to 2005 levels, and to peak carbon emissions overall by 2030. Disagreement among available inventories of Chinese emissions makes it difficult for China to track progress toward its goals and evaluate the efficacy of regional control measures. This study uses a unique set of historical atmospheric observations for the key period from 2005 to 2009 to independently evaluate three different CO2 emission estimates.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3373–3396, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3373-2020, 2020
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The state-of-the-science Community Multiscale Air Quality model extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ) is used to model the trans-Pacific transport which has been recognized as a potential source of air pollutants over the US. In Part 1, modeled ozone is evaluated with observations at surface, by ozonesonde and airplane, and by satellite across the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, a newly developed air mass characterization method to estimate stratospheric intrusion is presented.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, Sergey L. Napelenok, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3397–3413, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3397-2020, 2020
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The state-of-the-science Community Multiscale Air Quality model extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ) is used to model the trans-Pacific transport which has been recognized as a potential source of air pollutants over the US. In Part 2, the higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) is applied to investigate the emission impacts from east Asia and the US during April 2010. Furthermore, changes in trans-Pacific transport caused by the recent emissions are examined.
Hao He, Xin-Zhong Liang, Chao Sun, Zhining Tao, and Daniel Q. Tong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3191–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3191-2020, 2020
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We studied the trend of US ozone pollution from 1990 to 2015 using EPA observations and computer simulations. Observations indicated a decrease in peak ozone at noon due to regulations and a slight increase in ozone in early morning and late afternoon possibly. Our modeling system confirmed these findings and provided detailed information about ozone photochemistry. These results revealed the success of previous control measures and provide scientific evidence for the future regulations.
Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Joaquim Arteta, Adriana Coman, Lyana Curier, Henk Eskes, Gilles Foret, Clio Gielen, Francois Hendrick, Virginie Marécal, Frédérik Meleux, Jonathan Parmentier, Enno Peters, Gaia Pinardi, Ankie J. M. Piters, Matthieu Plu, Andreas Richter, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Álvaro M. Valdebenito, Michel Van Roozendael, Julius Vira, Tim Vlemmix, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2795–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2795-2020, 2020
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MAX-DOAS tropospheric NO2 vertical column retrievals from a set of European measurement stations are compared to regional air quality models which contribute to the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Correlations are on the order of 35 %–75 %; large differences occur for individual pollution plumes. The results demonstrate that future model development needs to concentrate on improving representation of diurnal cycles and associated temporal scalings.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, David Carruthers, Jie Li, Qiang Zhang, Ruili Wu, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Freya A. Squires, James Lee, and Zongbo Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2755–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, 2020
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Ambient air pollution is a major cause of premature death in China. We examine the street-scale variation of pollutant levels in Beijing using air pollution dispersion and chemistry model ADMS-Urban. Campaign measurements are compared with simulated pollutant levels, providing a valuable means of evaluating the impact of key processes on urban air quality. Air quality modelling at such fine scales is essential for human exposure studies and for informing choices on future emission controls.
James Weber, Alexander Archibald, Paul Griffiths, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Torsten Berndt, Michael Jenkin, Hamish Gordon, and Christoph Knote
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-154, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Highly oxygenated organic molecules(HOMs) are important for aerosol growth and new particle formation, particularly in air masses with less sulphuric acid. This new chemical mechanism reproduces measured [HOM] and [HOM-precursors] and is concise enough for use in global climate models. The mechanism also reproduces the observed suppression of HOMs by isoprene, suggesting enhanced emissions may not necessarily lead to more aerosol. The greater importance of HOMs in the PI is also illustrated.
Peiyu Cao, Chaoqun Lu, Jien Zhang, and Avani Khadilkar
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-97, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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In this study, we estimate monthly ammonia emission from synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use across the contiguous U.S. from 1900 to 2015. The results indicate the important role that cropland expansion and nitrogen fertilizer enrichment played in enhancing NH3 emissions. It shows such long-term human activities have dramatically changed the spatiotemporal and seasonal patterns of NH3 emission, impacting air pollution and public health in the U.S.
Karl M. Seltzer, Drew T. Shindell, Prasad Kasibhatla, and Christopher S. Malley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1757–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1757-2020, 2020
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Long-term exposure to ambient ozone is associated with a variety of impacts, including adverse human-health effects and reduced commercial crop yields. We apply machine learning to empirically model long-term O3 exposure over the continental United States from 2000 to 2015 and generate a measurement-based assessment of impacts on human health and crop yields. Notably, our results illustrate how different conclusions regarding historical impacts can be drawn through the use of varying metrics.
S. Trivikrama Rao, Huiying Luo, Marina Astitha, Christian Hogrefe, Valerie Garcia, and Rohit Mathur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1627–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1627-2020, 2020
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Since numerical air quality models do not explicitly simulate stochastic variations in the atmosphere, there will always be differences between modeled and measured pollutant levels even when the model's physics, chemistry, numerical analysis, and its input data are perfect. This paper quantifies the inherent uncertainty in regional models due to the stochastic nature of the atmosphere. A knowledge of the expected error helps model developers in evaluating the real progress in improving models.
Viral Shah, Daniel J. Jacob, Ke Li, Rachel F. Silvern, Shixian Zhai, Mengyao Liu, Jintai Lin, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1483–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1483-2020, 2020
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We analyze 15 years of satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and use an atmospheric chemistry model to understand the seasonal changes and trends in nitrogen oxides (NOx) over China. We show that the seasonal changes in NO2 occur due to changes in the NOx oxidation lifetime. We find that Chinese NOx emissions peaked in 2011 and had decreased by about 25 % by 2018. But the decrease in NO2 in winter was larger, likely because of a simultaneous decrease in the NOx oxidation lifetime.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Meredith Schervish and Neil M. Donahue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1183–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1183-2020, 2020
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Gas-phase autoxidation of organics can generate highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) and thus increase secondary organic aerosol production and enable new-particle formation. Here we explicitly represent the generation of HOMs via peroxy radical chemistry and resolve the products based on volatility and O : C. Using experimentally constrained assumptions about autoxidation and dimerization reactions, we see suppression of HOM formation under low-temperature and high-NOx conditions.
Simon Rosanka, Christine Frömming, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-46, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Aviation attributed nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions lead to an increase in ozone and a depletion of methane. In this study we investigate the impact of weather related transport processes on these induced composition changes. Subsidence in high pressure systems leads to earlier ozone maxima due to elevated temperatures. Background NOx and hydroperoxyl radicals limit the total ozone change during summer and winter, respectively. High water vapor concentrations lead to a high methane depletion.
Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Kevin W. Bowman, Keiya Yumimoto, Thomas Walker, and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 931–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-931-2020, 2020
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We introduce a multi-model, multi-constituent chemical data assimilation framework that directly accounts for model error in transport and chemistry by integrating a portfolio of forward chemical transport models. The assimilation was able to reduce ensemble forward model spread and bias relative to independent measurements. Diagnostic information readily available from the framework has the potential to improve chemical predictions through relationships such as emergent constraints.
Jian He, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Ed Dlugokencky, and Kirk Thoning
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-805-2020, 2020
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In this work, methane representation in AM4.1 is improved by optimizing CH4 emissions to match surface observations. We find increases in CH4 sources balanced by increases in sinks lead to CH4 stabilization during 1999–2006, and anthropogenic sources (e.g., agriculture, energy, and waste) are more likely major contributors to the renewed growth after 2006. Increases in CH4 emissions and decreases in OH levels during 2008–2015 prolong CH4 lifetime and amplify methane response to emission changes.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1219, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidising capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models, and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 10 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Stephen R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1065, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributed to anthropogenic climate change, however the effect of human emissions is uncertain as pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to simulate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34% lower when improved pre-industrial emissions from fires and vegetation are used.
Cited articles
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Galmarini, S., Bianconi, R., Bellasio, R., and Graziani, G.: Forecasting consequences of accidental releases from ensemble dispersion modelling, J. Environ. Radioact., 57, 203–219, 2001.
Galmarini, S., Bianconi, R., Klug, W., Mikkelsen, T., Addis, R., Andronopoulos, S., Astrup, P., Baklanov, A., Bartniki, J., Bartzis, J. C., Bellasio, R., Bompay, F., Buckley, R., Bouzom, M., Champion, H., D'Amours, R., Davakis, E., Eleveld, H., Geertsema, G. T., Glaab, H., Kollax, M., Ilvonen, M., Manning, A., Pechinger, U., Persson, C., Polreich, E., Potemski, S., Prodanova, M., Saltbones, J., Slaper, H., Sofiev, M. A., Syrakov, D., Sørensen, J. H., Van der Auwera, L., Valkama, I., and Zelazny, R.: Ensemble dispersion forecasting, Part 1: Concept, Approach and indicators, Atmos. Environ., 38, 4607–4617, 2004.
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Hogrefe, C., Vempaty, S., Rao, S. T., and Porter, P. S.: A comparison of four techniques for separating different time scales in atmospheric variables, Atmos. Environ., 37, 313–325, 2003.
Kang, D., Mathur, R., Rao, S. T., and Yu, S.: Bias Adjustment Techniques for Improving Ozone Air Quality Forecasts, J. Geophy. Res., 113, D23308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD10151, 2008.
Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., and Meehl, G.: Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models, J. Climate, 23, 2739–2758, 2010.
Kukkonen, J., Olsson, T., Schultz, D. M., Baklanov, A., Klein, T., Miranda, A. I., Monteiro, A., Hirtl, M., Tarvainen, V., Boy, M., Peuch, V.-H., Poupkou, A., Kioutsioukis, I., Finardi, S., Sofiev, M., Sokhi, R., Lehtinen, K. E. J., Karatzas, K., San José, R., Astitha, M., Kallos, G., Schaap, M., Reimer, E., Jakobs, H., and Eben, K.: A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-1-2012, 2012.
Mallet, V. and Sportisse, B.: Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D18302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006675, 2006.
Masson, D. and Knutti, R.: Climate model genealogy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L08703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046864, 2011.
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Papanastasiou, D. K., Melas, D., and Bartzanas, T.: Estimation of Ozone Trend in Central Greece, Based on Meteorologically Adjusted Time Series. Environ. Model. Assess., 17, 353–361, 2012.
Peuch V.-H. and Razinger, M.: ENSEMBLE: Products, Quality and Background Information, MACC Report D_R-ENS_3.1.6, 2011.
Pirtle, Z., Meyer, R., and Hamilton, A.: What does it mean when climate models agree? A case for assessing independence among general circulation models. Environ. Sci. Pol., 799, 2010.
Potempski, S. and Galmarini, S.: Est modus in rebus: analytical properties of multi-model ensembles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9471–9489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-9471-2009, 2009.
Potempski, S., Galmarini, S., Addis, R., Astrup, P., Bader, S., Bellasio, R., Bianconi, R., Bonnardot, F., Buckley, R., D'Amours, R., van Dijk, A., Geertsema, G., Jones, A., Kaufmann, P., Pechinger, U., Persson, C., Polreich, E., Prodanova, M., Robertson, L., Sørensen, J., and Syrakov, D.: Multi-model ensemble analysis of the ETEX-2 experiment, Atmos. Environ., 42, 7250–7265, 2008.
Potempski, S., Galmarini, S., Riccio, A., and Giunta, G.: Bayesian model averaging for emergency response atmospheric dispersion multimodel ensembles: Is it really better? How many data are needed? Are the weights portable?, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D21309, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014210, 2010.
Pouliot, G., Pierce, T., Denier van der Gon, H., Schaap, M., Moran, M., and Nopmongcol, U.: Comparing Emissions Inventories and Model-Ready Emissions Datasets between Europe and North America for the AQMEII Project, Atmos. Environ., 53, 4–14, 2012.
Rao, S. T., Zurbenko, I. G., Neagu, R., Porter, P. S., Ku, J. Y., and Henry, R. F.: Space and time scales in ambient ozone data, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2153, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2153:SATSIA>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Rao, S. T., Galmarini, S., and Puckett, K.: Air quality model evaluation international initiative (AQMEII): Advancing the state of the science in regional photochemical modelling and its applications, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 23–30, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3069.1, 2011.
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