Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4489-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4489-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 02 Apr 2026
| 02 Apr 2026
Improving forecasts of persistent contrails through ice deposition adjustments
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Alexei Korolev
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Jason A. Milbrandt
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5389–5404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, 2024
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Ice particles precipitating into lower clouds from an upper cloud, the seeder–feeder process, can enhance precipitation. A numerical modeling study conducted in the Swiss Alps found that 48 % of observed clouds were overlapping, with the seeder–feeder process occurring in 10 % of these clouds. Inhibiting the seeder–feeder process reduced the surface precipitation and ice particle growth rates, which were further reduced when additional ice multiplication processes were included in the model.
Zane Dedekind, Jacopo Grazioli, Philip H. Austin, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2345–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2345-2023, 2023
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Simulations allowing ice particles to collide with one another producing more ice particles represented surface observations of ice particles accurately. An increase in ice particles formed through collisions was related to sharp changes in the wind direction and speed with height. Changes in wind speed and direction can therefore cause more enhanced collisions between ice particles and alter how fast and how much precipitation forms. Simulations were conducted with the atmospheric model COSMO.
Zane Dedekind, Annika Lauber, Sylvaine Ferrachat, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15115–15134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15115-2021, 2021
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The RACLETS campaign combined cloud and snow research to improve the understanding of precipitation formation in clouds. A numerical weather prediction model, COSMO, was used to assess the importance of ice crystal enhancement by ice–ice collisions for cloud properties. We found that the number of ice crystals increased by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude when ice–ice collisions were permitted to occur, reducing localized regions of high precipitation and, thereby, improving the model performance.
Alexei V. Korolev and R. Paul Lawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 2331–2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2331-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2331-2026, 2026
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The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that aerosols and clouds are significant contributors to the rate of warming in the Arctic, which is now shown to be more than twice that of the global average. Climate model predictions suggest that the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free sometime between 2030 and 2050. The research presented here increases our knowledge of how aerosols, clouds and surface properties contribute to warming and the melting of sea ice in the Arctic.
Zhipeng Qu, Alexei Korolev, Jason A. Milbrandt, Ivan Heckman, Mélissa Cholette, Cuong Nguyen, and Mengistu Wolde
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17845–17868, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17845-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17845-2025, 2025
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This study examines the impact of incorporating secondary ice production (SIP) parameterizations into high-resolution numerical weather prediction simulations for mid-latitude continental winter conditions. Aircraft in situ and remote sensing observations are used to evaluate the simulations. Results show that including SIP improves the representation of cloud and freezing rain properties, with its impact varying based on cloud regime, such as convective or stratiform.
Alexei Korolev, Zhipeng Qu, Jason Milbrandt, Ivan Heckman, Mélissa Cholette, Mengistu Wolde, Cuong Nguyen, Greg M. McFarquhar, Paul Lawson, and Ann M. Fridlind
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11849–11881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11849-2024, 2024
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The phenomenon of high ice water content (HIWC) occurs in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) when a large number of small ice particles with typical sizes of a few hundred micrometers is found at high altitudes. It was found that secondary ice production in the vicinity of the melting layer plays a key role in the formation and maintenance of HIWC. This study presents a conceptual model of the formation of HIWC in tropical MCSs based on in situ observations and numerical simulation.
Zane Dedekind, Ulrike Proske, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Ulrike Lohmann, and David Neubauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5389–5404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Ice particles precipitating into lower clouds from an upper cloud, the seeder–feeder process, can enhance precipitation. A numerical modeling study conducted in the Swiss Alps found that 48 % of observed clouds were overlapping, with the seeder–feeder process occurring in 10 % of these clouds. Inhibiting the seeder–feeder process reduced the surface precipitation and ice particle growth rates, which were further reduced when additional ice multiplication processes were included in the model.
Zane Dedekind, Jacopo Grazioli, Philip H. Austin, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2345–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2345-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations allowing ice particles to collide with one another producing more ice particles represented surface observations of ice particles accurately. An increase in ice particles formed through collisions was related to sharp changes in the wind direction and speed with height. Changes in wind speed and direction can therefore cause more enhanced collisions between ice particles and alter how fast and how much precipitation forms. Simulations were conducted with the atmospheric model COSMO.
Sergey Y. Matrosov, Alexei Korolev, Mengistu Wolde, and Cuong Nguyen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 6373–6386, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6373-2022, 2022
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A remote sensing method to retrieve sizes of particles in ice clouds and precipitation from radar measurements at two wavelengths is described. This method is based on relating the particle size information to the ratio of radar signals at these two wavelengths. It is demonstrated that this ratio is informative about different characteristic particle sizes. Knowing atmospheric ice particle sizes is important for many applications such as precipitation estimation and climate modeling.
Alexei Korolev, Paul J. DeMott, Ivan Heckman, Mengistu Wolde, Earle Williams, David J. Smalley, and Michael F. Donovan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13103–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13103-2022, 2022
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The present study provides the first explicit in situ observation of secondary ice production at temperatures as low as −27 °C, which is well outside the range of the Hallett–Mossop process (−3 to −8 °C). This observation expands our knowledge of the temperature range of initiation of secondary ice in clouds. The obtained results are intended to stimulate laboratory and theoretical studies to develop physically based parameterizations for weather prediction and climate models.
Zhipeng Qu, Alexei Korolev, Jason A. Milbrandt, Ivan Heckman, Yongjie Huang, Greg M. McFarquhar, Hugh Morrison, Mengistu Wolde, and Cuong Nguyen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12287–12310, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12287-2022, 2022
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Secondary ice production (SIP) is an important physical phenomenon that results in an increase in the cloud ice particle concentration and can have a significant impact on the evolution of clouds. Here, idealized simulations of a tropical convective system were conducted. Agreement between the simulations and observations highlights the impacts of SIP on the maintenance of tropical convection in nature and the importance of including the modelling of SIP in numerical weather prediction models.
Yongjie Huang, Wei Wu, Greg M. McFarquhar, Ming Xue, Hugh Morrison, Jason Milbrandt, Alexei V. Korolev, Yachao Hu, Zhipeng Qu, Mengistu Wolde, Cuong Nguyen, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, and Ivan Heckman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2365–2384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2365-2022, 2022
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Numerous small ice crystals in tropical convective storms are difficult to detect and could be potentially hazardous for commercial aircraft. Previous numerical simulations failed to reproduce this phenomenon and hypothesized that key microphysical processes are still lacking in current models to realistically simulate the phenomenon. This study uses numerical experiments to confirm the dominant role of secondary ice production in the formation of these large numbers of small ice crystals.
Zane Dedekind, Annika Lauber, Sylvaine Ferrachat, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15115–15134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15115-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The RACLETS campaign combined cloud and snow research to improve the understanding of precipitation formation in clouds. A numerical weather prediction model, COSMO, was used to assess the importance of ice crystal enhancement by ice–ice collisions for cloud properties. We found that the number of ice crystals increased by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude when ice–ice collisions were permitted to occur, reducing localized regions of high precipitation and, thereby, improving the model performance.
Haoran Li, Alexei Korolev, and Dmitri Moisseev
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13593–13608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13593-2021, 2021
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Kelvin–Helmholtz (K–H) clouds embedded in a stratiform precipitation event were uncovered via radar Doppler spectral analysis. Given the unprecedented detail of the observations, we show that multiple populations of secondary ice columns were generated in the pockets where larger cloud droplets are formed and not at some constant level within the cloud. Our results highlight that the K–H instability is favorable for liquid droplet growth and secondary ice formation.
Yongjie Huang, Wei Wu, Greg M. McFarquhar, Xuguang Wang, Hugh Morrison, Alexander Ryzhkov, Yachao Hu, Mengistu Wolde, Cuong Nguyen, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Jason Milbrandt, Alexei V. Korolev, and Ivan Heckman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6919–6944, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous small ice crystals in the tropical convective storms are difficult to detect and could be potentially hazardous for commercial aircraft. This study evaluated the numerical models against the airborne observations and investigated the potential cloud processes that could lead to the production of these large numbers of small ice crystals. It is found that key microphysical processes are still lacking or misrepresented in current numerical models to realistically simulate the phenomenon.
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Short summary
We studied how airplane contrails form and persist under cold, moist conditions. Using computer simulations and real observations, we found that weather predicting models often underestimate moisture levels, limiting accurate trail prediction. Adjusting how ice grows in clouds allowed us to better simulate these contrails. Improving moisture representation in models can help predict the climate effects of these clouds.
We studied how airplane contrails form and persist under cold, moist conditions. Using computer...
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