Articles | Volume 25, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17527-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17527-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Dec 2025
Research article |
| 03 Dec 2025
| 03 Dec 2025
Quantifying the contribution of transport to Antarctic springtime ozone column variability
Hannah E. Kessenich
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Annika Seppälä
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Dan Smale
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
Craig J. Rodger
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Mark Weber
Institut für Umweltphysik, Universität Bremen FB1, Bremen, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Beatriz Herrera, Enrico Dammers, Martine De Maziere, Omaira Garcia, Michel Grutter, James W. Hannigan, Dylan B. A. Jones, Nicholas Jones, Emmanuel Mahieu, Maria Makarova, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Isamu Morino, Isao Murata, Ivan Ortega, Mathias Palm, Anatoly Poverovskii, Takashi Sekiya, Dan Smale, Hannah Sill, Wolfgang Stremme, Ralf Sussmann, Geoffrey Toon, Corinne Vigouroux, Wei Wang, Tyler Wizenberg, and Kimberly Strong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3138, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates how atmospheric ammonia changes over time using long-term observations and simulations at locations around the world. While its main sources are related to agriculture, wildfires, vehicles, and volcanoes also contribute. The results show that ammonia levels vary strongly during the day and across seasons, and are rising at most locations. These findings improve our understanding of air pollution and its impacts.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Monika E. Szelag, Natalya A. Kramarova, Robert Damadeo, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Corinne Vigouroux, Eliane Maillard Barras, Daniel Zawada, Kleareti Tourpali, Stacey M. Frith, Jeannette D. Wild, Sean M. Davis, Carlo Arosio, Mark Weber, Alexei Rozanov, Brian Auffarth, Lucien Froidevaux, Ryan Fuller, Doug Degenstein, Kimberlee Dube, Peter Effertz, Thierry Leblanc, Gérard Ancellet, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Glen McConville, Richard Querel, Dan Smale, Marie-Renee DeBacker, Emmanuel Mahieu, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 7387–7405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. Analyses confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3 % decade-1. The trends are close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant.
Brian Auffarth, Mark Weber, Alexei Rozanov, Carlo Arosio, John P. Burrows, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Sean M. Davis, Doug Degenstein, Kimberlee Dubé, Stacey M. Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, Diego Loyola, Vitali E. Fioletov, Viktoria Sofieva, Ronald van der A, and Jeannette D. Wild
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2576, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the trends of stratospheric and total ozone between 2000 and 2024, using long-term satellite datasets. Our results show positive trends in the upper stratosphere and a strong ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere, while changes in lower altitudes remain mostly small. The total and stratospheric trends show very similar results, indicating that tropospheric ozone contributes little to total column changes, while the stratospheric column is the dominant driver.
Sean Davis, William Ball, Yue Jia, Gabriel Chiodo, Justin Alsing, James Keeble, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Carlo Arosio, Ewa Bednarz, Andreas Chrysanthou, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Robert Damadeo, Sandip Dhomse, Mohamadou Diallo, Simone Dietmuller, Roland Eichinger, Stacey Frith, Birgit Hassler, Michaela Hegglin, Daan Hubert, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Natalya Kramarova, Diego Loyola, Eliane Maillard Barras, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, David Plummer, Robert Portmann, Karen Rosenlof, Alexei Rozanov, Viktoria Sofieva, Johannes Staehelin, Timofei Sukhodolov, Kleareti Tourpali, Ronald Van der A, H. J. Ray Wang, Krzysztof Wargan, Shingo Watanabe, Mark Weber, Jeannette Wild, Yousuke Yamashita, and Jerry Ziemke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-532, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how tropical ozone levels have changed since 2000 in chemistry climate models and satellite observations to determine how well they agree with one another, and to see if current trends can help predict future levels. At some, satellite records disagree significantly on the magnitude of ozone changes. The study shows a connection between recent ozone trends and future ozone levels, suggesting that satellite measurements could help constrain future ozone changes.
Haotian He, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, Shujie Chang, Yajuan Li, Mark Weber, and Saffron Heddell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-560, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Overall, in the long-term, Antarctic ozone evolution reflects the interplay of multiple processes, with dynamical drivers holding a particularly strong influence on recovery patterns. The Brewer-Dobson circulation perturbations play a significant role in the long-term ozone trend, requiring more research and continued attention to the ozone hole and dynamic processes to improve our understanding of long-term ozone variability and predict future changes in the Antarctic ozone hole.
Roeland Van Malderen, Zhou Zang, Kai-Lan Chang, Robin Björklund, Owen R. Cooper, Jane Liu, Eliane Maillard Barras, Corinne Vigouroux, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Thierry Leblanc, Valérie Thouret, Pawel Wolff, Peter Effertz, Audrey Gaudel, David W. Tarasick, Herman G. J. Smit, Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Debra E. Kollonige, Deniz Poyraz, Gérard Ancellet, Marie-Renée De Backer, Matthias M. Frey, James W. Hannigan, José L. Hernandez, Bryan J. Johnson, Nicholas Jones, Rigel Kivi, Emmanuel Mahieu, Isamu Morino, Glen McConville, Katrin Müller, Isao Murata, Justus Notholt, Ankie Piters, Maxime Prignon, Richard Querel, Vincenzo Rizi, Dan Smale, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Kimberly Strong, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9905–9935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9905-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas and an air pollutant whose distribution and time variability are mainly governed by anthropogenic emissions and dynamics. In this paper, we assess regional trends of tropospheric ozone column amounts, based on two different approaches of merging or synthesizing ground-based observations and their trends within specific regions. Our findings clearly demonstrate regional trend differences but also consistently higher pre-COVID than post-COVID trends.
Carlo Arosio, Viktoria Sofieva, Andrea Orfanoz-Cheuquelaf, Alexei Rozanov, Klaus-Peter Heue, Diego Loyola, Edward Malina, Ryan M. Stauffer, David Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, Jerry R. Ziemke, and Mark Weber
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 3247–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone affects air quality and climate, being a pollutant and a greenhouse gas. We analyze satellite data of tropospheric ozone columns obtained by combining two types of observations: one providing stratospheric and the other total ozone. We compare common climatological features and study the influence of the tropopause (troposphere to stratosphere boundary) on the results. We also examine trends over the last 20 years and compare satellite data with ozonesondes to identify drifts.
Roeland Van Malderen, Anne M. Thompson, Debra E. Kollonige, Ryan M. Stauffer, Herman G. J. Smit, Eliane Maillard Barras, Corinne Vigouroux, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Thierry Leblanc, Valérie Thouret, Pawel Wolff, Peter Effertz, David W. Tarasick, Deniz Poyraz, Gérard Ancellet, Marie-Renée De Backer, Stéphanie Evan, Victoria Flood, Matthias M. Frey, James W. Hannigan, José L. Hernandez, Marco Iarlori, Bryan J. Johnson, Nicholas Jones, Rigel Kivi, Emmanuel Mahieu, Glen McConville, Katrin Müller, Tomoo Nagahama, Justus Notholt, Ankie Piters, Natalia Prats, Richard Querel, Dan Smale, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Kimberly Strong, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7187–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas and is an air pollutant. The time variability of tropospheric ozone is mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions. In this paper, we study the distribution and time variability of ozone from harmonized ground-based observations from five different measurement techniques. Our findings provide clear standard references for atmospheric models and evolving tropospheric ozone satellite data for the 2000–2022 period.
Beata Bukosa, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Donna L. Giltrap, Lìyǐn Liáng, Stuart Moore, Rowena Moss, Sylvia Nichol, Jocelyn Turnbull, Alex Geddes, Daemon Kennett, Dóra Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, Louis A. Schipper, Aaron M. Wall, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hitoshi Mukai, and Andrea Brandon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6445–6473, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6445-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6445-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modelling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and removals from 2011 to 2020. Our study reveals that New Zealand's land absorbs more CO2 than previously estimated, particularly in areas dominated by indigenous forests. Our results highlight gaps in current national CO2 estimates and methods, suggesting a need for further research to improve emissions reports and refine approaches to track progress toward climate mitigation goals.
Ivan Ortega, James W. Hannigan, Bianca C. Baier, Kathryn McKain, and Dan Smale
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 2353–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-2353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates retrieval strategies for CH4 and N2O using high-resolution FTIR observations from Boulder, Colorado. By comparing results with independent AirCore and aircraft in situ measurements, the analysis validates retrieval accuracy and quantifies uncertainties. The findings highlight the benefits of updated spectroscopy and improved a priori profiles and highlight consistent agreement with in situ data.
Swathi Maratt Satheesan, Kai-Uwe Eichmann, Mark Weber, Roeland Van Malderen, Ryan Stauffer, and David Tarasick
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-306, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the CLCD (CHORA Local Cloud Decision) algorithm for retrieving near-global tropospheric ozone using TROPOMI data. The approach refines the Convective Cloud Differential method by using a local cloud reference sector to minimize errors from stratospheric ozone variability, particularly in mid-latitudes. Validation against ground-based data shows good accuracy, highlighting its potential for improving air quality monitoring and supporting current and future satellite missions.
Kelley C. Wells, Dylan B. Millet, Jared F. Brewer, Vivienne H. Payne, Karen E. Cady-Pereira, Rick Pernak, Susan Kulawik, Corinne Vigouroux, Nicholas Jones, Emmanuel Mahieu, Maria Makarova, Tomoo Nagahama, Ivan Ortega, Mathias Palm, Kimberly Strong, Matthias Schneider, Dan Smale, Ralf Sussmann, and Minqiang Zhou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 695–716, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-695-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) affect both air quality and climate. Satellite measurements can help us to assess and predict their global impacts. We present new decadal (2012–2023) measurements of four key VOCs – methanol, ethene, ethyne, and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) – from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder. The measurements reflect emissions from major forests, wildfires, and industry and provide new information to advance understanding of these sources and their changes over time.
Robin Björklund, Corinne Vigouroux, Peter Effertz, Omaira E. García, Alex Geddes, James Hannigan, Koji Miyagawa, Michael Kotkamp, Bavo Langerock, Gerald Nedoluha, Ivan Ortega, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Deniz Poyraz, Richard Querel, John Robinson, Hisako Shiona, Dan Smale, Penny Smale, Roeland Van Malderen, and Martine De Mazière
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6819–6849, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Different ground-based ozone measurements from the last 2 decades at Lauder are compared to each other. We want to know why different trends have been observed in the stratosphere. Also, the quality and relevance of tropospheric datasets need to be evaluated. While remaining drifts are still present, our study explains roughly half of the differences in observed trends in previous studies and shows the necessity for continuous review and improvement of the measurements.
Swathi Maratt Satheesan, Kai-Uwe Eichmann, John P. Burrows, Mark Weber, Ryan Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, and Debra Kollonige
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6459–6484, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CHORA, an advanced cloud convective differential technique, enhances the accuracy of tropospheric-ozone retrievals. Unlike the traditional Pacific cloud reference sector scheme, CHORA introduces a local-cloud reference sector and an alternative approach (CLCT) for precision. Analysing monthly averaged TROPOMI data from 2018 to 2022 and validating with SHADOZ ozonesonde data, CLCT outperforms other methods and so is the preferred choice, especially in future geostationary satellite missions.
Falco Monsees, Alexei Rozanov, John P. Burrows, Mark Weber, Annette Rinke, Ralf Jaiser, and Peter von der Gathen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9085–9099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9085-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclones strongly influence weather predictability but still cannot be fully characterised in the Arctic because of the sparse coverage of meteorological measurements. A potential approach to compensate for this is the use of satellite measurements of ozone, because cyclones impact the tropopause and therefore also ozone. In this study we used this connection to investigate the correlation between ozone and the tropopause in the Arctic and to identify cyclones with satellite ozone observations.
Nelson Bègue, Alexandre Baron, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Gwenaël Berthet, Corinna Kloss, Fabrice Jégou, Sergey Khaykin, Marion Ranaivombola, Tristan Millet, Thierry Portafaix, Valentin Duflot, Philippe Keckhut, Hélène Vérèmes, Guillaume Payen, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Pierre-François Coheur, Cathy Clerbaux, Michaël Sicard, Tetsu Sakai, Richard Querel, Ben Liley, Dan Smale, Isamu Morino, Osamu Uchino, Tomohiro Nagai, Penny Smale, John Robinson, and Hassan Bencherif
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8031–8048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the 2020 austral summer, the pristine atmosphere of the southwest Indian Ocean basin experienced significant perturbations. Numerical models indicated that the lower-stratospheric aerosol content was influenced by the intense and persistent stratospheric aerosol layer generated during the 2019–2020 extreme Australian bushfire events. Ground-based observations at Réunion confirmed the simultaneous presence of African and Australian aerosol layers.
Mark Weber
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3597–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how stable the performance of a satellite instrument has to be to be useful for assessing long-term trends in stratospheric ozone. The stability of an instrument is specified in percent per decade and is also called instrument drift. Instrument drifts add to uncertainties of long-term trends. From simulated time series of ozone based on the Monte Carlo approach, we determine stability requirements that are needed to achieve the desired long-term trend uncertainty.
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6413–6432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a homogenised ozonesonde record (1987–2020) for Lauder, a Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude site; identify factors driving ozone trends; and attribute them to anthropogenic forcings using statistical analysis and model simulations. We find that significant negative lower-stratospheric ozone trends identified at Lauder are associated with an increase in tropopause height and that CO2-driven dynamical changes have played an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends.
Matthew S. Johnson, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, Nora Mettig, John Sullivan, Michael J. Newchurch, Shi Kuang, Thierry Leblanc, Fernando Chouza, Timothy A. Berkoff, Guillaume Gronoff, Kevin B. Strawbridge, Raul J. Alvarez, Andrew O. Langford, Christoph J. Senff, Guillaume Kirgis, Brandi McCarty, and Larry Twigg
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2559–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring tropospheric ozone (O3), a harmful pollutant negatively impacting human health, is primarily done using ground-based measurements and ozonesondes. However, these observation types lack the coverage to fully understand tropospheric O3. Satellites can retrieve tropospheric ozone with near-daily global coverage; however, they are known to have biases and errors. This study uses ground-based lidars to validate multiple satellites' ability to observe tropospheric O3.
Andrea Orfanoz-Cheuquelaf, Carlo Arosio, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, Annette Ladstätter-Weißenmayer, John P. Burrows, Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, and Debra E. Kollonige
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1791–1809, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Valuable information on the tropospheric ozone column (TrOC) can be obtained globally by combining space-borne limb and nadir measurements (limb–nadir matching, LNM). This study describes the retrieval of TrOC from the OMPS instrument (since 2012) using the LNM technique. The OMPS-LNM TrOC was compared with ozonesondes and other satellite measurements, showing a good agreement with a negative bias within 1 to 4 DU. This new dataset is suitable for pollution studies.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Monika Szelag, Johanna Tamminen, Carlo Arosio, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, Doug Degenstein, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Michael Kiefer, Alexandra Laeng, Kaley A. Walker, Patrick Sheese, Daan Hubert, Michel van Roozendael, Christian Retscher, Robert Damadeo, and Jerry D. Lumpe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1881–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1881-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1881-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the updated SAGE-CCI-OMPS+ climate data record of monthly zonal mean ozone profiles. This dataset covers the stratosphere and combines measurements by nine limb and occultation satellite instruments (SAGE II, OSIRIS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, ACE-FTS, OMPS-LP, POAM III, and SAGE III/ISS). The update includes new versions of MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and OSIRIS datasets and introduces data from additional sensors (POAM III and SAGE III/ISS) and retrieval processors (OMPS-LP).
Udo Frieß, Karin Kreher, Richard Querel, Holger Schmithüsen, Dan Smale, Rolf Weller, and Ulrich Platt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3207–3232, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reactive bromine compounds, emitted by the sea ice during polar spring, play an important role in the atmospheric chemistry of the coastal regions of Antarctica. We investigate the sources and impacts of reactive bromine in detail using many years of measurements at two Antarctic sites located at opposite sides of the Antarctic continent. Using a multitude of meteorological observations, we were able to identify the main triggers and source regions for reactive bromine in Antarctica.
David F. Pollard, Frank Hase, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Darko Dubravica, Carlos Alberti, and Dan Smale
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5427–5437, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5427-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe measurements made in Antarctica using an EM27/SUN, a near-infrared, portable, low-resolution spectrometer from which we can retrieve the average atmospheric concentration of several greenhouse gases. We show that these measurements are reliable and comparable to other, similar ground-based measurements. Comparisons to the ESA's Sentinel-5 precursor (S5P) satellite demonstrate the usefulness of these data for satellite validation.
Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Niramson Azouz, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Daan Hubert, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Peter Effertz, Gérard Ancellet, Doug A. Degenstein, Daniel Zawada, Lucien Froidevaux, Stacey Frith, Jeannette Wild, Sean Davis, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Kleareti Tourpali, Robert Damadeo, Eliane Maillard Barras, René Stübi, Corinne Vigouroux, Carlo Arosio, Gerald Nedoluha, Ian Boyd, Roeland Van Malderen, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11657–11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An updated evaluation up to 2020 of stratospheric ozone profile long-term trends at extrapolar latitudes based on satellite and ground-based records is presented. Ozone increase in the upper stratosphere is confirmed, with significant trends at most latitudes. In this altitude region, a very good agreement is found with trends derived from chemistry–climate model simulations. Observed and modelled trends diverge in the lower stratosphere, but the differences are non-significant.
John T. Sullivan, Arnoud Apituley, Nora Mettig, Karin Kreher, K. Emma Knowland, Marc Allaart, Ankie Piters, Michel Van Roozendael, Pepijn Veefkind, Jerry R. Ziemke, Natalya Kramarova, Mark Weber, Alexei Rozanov, Laurence Twigg, Grant Sumnicht, and Thomas J. McGee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11137–11153, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) validation campaign (TROLIX-19) was held in the Netherlands in September 2019. The research presented here focuses on using ozone lidars from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center to better evaluate the characterization of ozone throughout TROLIX-19 as compared to balloon-borne, space-borne and ground-based passive measurements, as well as a global coupled chemistry meteorology model.
Ville Maliniemi, Pavle Arsenovic, Annika Seppälä, and Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8137–8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on Antarctic stratospheric ozone chemistry over the whole 20th century. We find a significant increase of reactive nitrogen due to EP, which can deplete ozone via a catalytic reaction. Furthermore, significant modulation of active chlorine is obtained related to EPP, which impacts ozone depletion by both active chlorine and EPP. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of ozone chemistry during the CFC era.
Mark Weber, Carlo Arosio, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Vitali E. Fioletov, Stacey M. Frith, Jeannette D. Wild, Kleareti Tourpali, John P. Burrows, and Diego Loyola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6843–6859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6843-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in column ozone have been determined from five merged total ozone datasets spanning the period 1978–2020. We show that ozone recovery due to the decline in stratospheric halogens after the 1990s (as regulated by the Montreal Protocol) is evident outside the tropical region and amounts to half a percent per decade. The ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere is however compensated for by the negative long-term trend contribution from atmospheric dynamics since the year 2000.
Nora Mettig, Mark Weber, Alexei Rozanov, John P. Burrows, Pepijn Veefkind, Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Thierry Leblanc, Gerard Ancellet, Michael J. Newchurch, Shi Kuang, Rigel Kivi, Matthew B. Tully, Roeland Van Malderen, Ankie Piters, Bogumil Kois, René Stübi, and Pavla Skrivankova
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2955–2978, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical ozone profiles from combined spectral measurements in the UV and IR spectral ranges were retrieved by using data from TROPOMI/S5P and CrIS/Suomi-NPP. The vertical resolution and accuracy of the ozone profiles are improved by combining both wavelength ranges compared to retrievals limited to UV or IR spectral data only. The advancement of our TOPAS algorithm for combined measurements is required because in the UV-only retrieval the vertical resolution in the troposphere is very limited.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Ryan Hossaini, Graham W. Mann, Michelle L. Santee, and Mark Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 903–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-903-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar flux variations associated with 11-year sunspot cycle is believed to exert important external climate forcing. As largest variations occur at shorter wavelengths such as ultra-violet part of the solar spectrum, associated changes in stratospheric ozone are thought to provide direct evidence for solar climate interaction. Until now, most of the studies reported double-peak structured solar cycle signal (SCS), but relatively new satellite data suggest only single-peak-structured SCS.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Carlo Arosio, Wuhu Feng, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5711–5729, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High-quality long-term ozone profile data sets are key to estimating short- and long-term ozone variability. Almost all the satellite (and chemical model) data sets show some kind of bias with respect to each other. This is because of differences in measurement methodologies as well as simplified processes in the models. We use satellite data sets and chemical model output to generate 42 years of ozone profile data sets using a random-forest machine-learning algorithm that is named ML-TOMCAT.
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga V. Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppälä, Kazuo Shiokawa, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 39, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
Mahesh Kumar Sha, Bavo Langerock, Jean-François L. Blavier, Thomas Blumenstock, Tobias Borsdorff, Matthias Buschmann, Angelika Dehn, Martine De Mazière, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Dietrich G. Feist, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Michel Grutter, James W. Hannigan, Frank Hase, Pauli Heikkinen, Christian Hermans, Laura T. Iraci, Pascal Jeseck, Nicholas Jones, Rigel Kivi, Nicolas Kumps, Jochen Landgraf, Alba Lorente, Emmanuel Mahieu, Maria V. Makarova, Johan Mellqvist, Jean-Marc Metzger, Isamu Morino, Tomoo Nagahama, Justus Notholt, Hirofumi Ohyama, Ivan Ortega, Mathias Palm, Christof Petri, David F. Pollard, Markus Rettinger, John Robinson, Sébastien Roche, Coleen M. Roehl, Amelie N. Röhling, Constantina Rousogenous, Matthias Schneider, Kei Shiomi, Dan Smale, Wolfgang Stremme, Kimberly Strong, Ralf Sussmann, Yao Té, Osamu Uchino, Voltaire A. Velazco, Corinne Vigouroux, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Pucai Wang, Thorsten Warneke, Tyler Wizenberg, Debra Wunch, Shoma Yamanouchi, Yang Yang, and Minqiang Zhou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6249–6304, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6249-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6249-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents, for the first time, Sentinel-5 Precursor methane and carbon monoxide validation results covering a period from November 2017 to September 2020. For this study, we used global TCCON and NDACC-IRWG network data covering a wide range of atmospheric and surface conditions across different terrains. We also show the influence of a priori alignment, smoothing uncertainties and the sensitivity of the validation results towards the application of advanced co-location criteria.
Nora Mettig, Mark Weber, Alexei Rozanov, Carlo Arosio, John P. Burrows, Pepijn Veefkind, Anne M. Thompson, Richard Querel, Thierry Leblanc, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Rigel Kivi, and Matthew B. Tully
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6057–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6057-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI is a nadir-viewing satellite that has observed global atmospheric trace gases at unprecedented spatial resolution since 2017. The retrieval of ozone profiles with high accuracy has been demonstrated using the TOPAS (Tikhonov regularised Ozone Profile retrievAl with SCIATRAN) algorithm and applying appropriate spectral corrections to TROPOMI UV data. Ozone profiles from TROPOMI were compared to ozonesonde and lidar profiles, showing an agreement to within 5 % in the stratosphere.
Viktoria J. Nordström and Annika Seppälä
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12835–12853, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The winter winds over Antarctica form a stable vortex. However, in 2019 the vortex was disrupted and the temperature in the polar stratosphere rose by 50°C. This event, called a sudden stratospheric warming, is a rare event in the Southern Hemisphere, with the only known major event having taken place in 2002. The 2019 event helps us unravel its causes, which are largely unknown. We have discovered a unique behaviour of the equatorial winds in 2002 and 2019 that may signal an impending SH SSW.
Andrea Orfanoz-Cheuquelaf, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, Carlo Arosio, Annette Ladstätter-Weißenmayer, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5771–5789, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5771-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5771-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
OMPS/NPP (2012–present) allows obtaining the tropospheric ozone column by combining ozone data from limb and nadir observations from the same instrument platform. In a first step, the retrieval of the total ozone column from the OMPS Nadir Mapper using the weighting function fitting approach (WFFA) is described here. The OMPS total ozone was compared with ground-based and other satellite measurements, showing agreement within 2.5 %.
Lily N. Zhang, Susan Solomon, Kane A. Stone, Jonathan D. Shanklin, Joshua D. Eveson, Steve Colwell, John P. Burrows, Mark Weber, Pieternel F. Levelt, Natalya A. Kramarova, and David P. Haffner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9829–9838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9829-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9829-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the 1980s, measurements at the British Antarctic Survey station in Halley, Antarctica, led to the discovery of the ozone hole. The Halley total ozone record continues to be uniquely valuable for studies of long-term changes in Antarctic ozone. Environmental conditions in 2017 forced a temporary cessation of operations, leading to a gap in the historic record. We develop and test a method for filling in the Halley record using satellite data and find evidence to further support ozone recovery.
Cited articles
Abrams, M. C., Manney, G. L., Gunson, M. R., Abbas, M. M., Chang, A. Y., Goldman, A., Irion, F. W., Michelsen, H. A., Newchurch, M. J., Rinsland, C. P., Salawitch, R. J., Stiller, G. P., and Zander, R.: ATMOS/ATLAS-3 observations of long-lived tracers and descent in the Antarctic Vortex in November 1994, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 2341–2344, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00705, 1996. a, b, c, d, e
Allen, D. R., Stanford, J. L., López-Valverde, M. A., Nakamura, N., Lary, D. J., Douglass, A. R., Cerniglia, M. C., Remedios, J. J., and Taylor, F. W.: Observations of Middle Atmosphere CO from the UARS ISAMS during the Early Northern Winter 1991/92, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 563–583, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0563:OOMACF>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a, b
Allen, D. R., Stanford, J. L., Nakamura, N., López-Valverde, M. A., López-Puertas, M., Taylor, F. W., and Remedios, J. J.: Antarctic polar descent and planetary wave activity observed in ISAMS CO from April to July 1992, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 665–668, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010888, 2000. a, b
Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Quasi-biennial modulation of the southern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3343–3346, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL02445, 1998. a
Ball, W. T., Alsing, J., Staehelin, J., Davis, S. M., Froidevaux, L., and Peter, T.: Stratospheric ozone trends for 1985–2018: sensitivity to recent large variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12731–12748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, 2019. a
Barnes, P. W., Robson, T. M., Neale, P. J., Williamson, C. E., Zepp, R. G., Madronich, S., Wilson, S. R., Andrady, A. L., Heikkilä, A. M., Bernhard, G. H., Bais, A. F., Neale, R. E., Bornman, J. F., Jansen, M. A. K., Klekociuk, A. R., Martinez-Abaigar, J., Robinson, S. A., Wang, Q.-W., Banaszak, A. T., Häder, D.-P., Hylander, S., Rose, K. C., Wängberg, S.-Å., Foereid, B., Hou, W.-C., Ossola, R., Paul, N. D., Ukpebor, J. E., Andersen, M. P. S., Longstreth, J., Schikowski, T., Solomon, K. R., Sulzberger, B., Bruckman, L. S., Pandey, K. K., White, C. C., Zhu, L., Zhu, M., Aucamp, P. J., Liley, J. B., McKenzie, R. L., Berwick, M., Byrne, S. N., Hollestein, L. M., Lucas, R. M., Olsen, C. M., Rhodes, L. E., Yazar, S., and Young, A. R.: Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021, Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, 21, 275–301, https://doi.org/10.1007/s43630-022-00176-5, 2022. a, b
Bowman, K. P.: Evolution of the total ozone field during the breakdown of the Antarctic circumpolar vortex, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 95, 16529–16543, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD10p16529, 1990. a, b, c
Bowman, K. P.: Large-scale isentropic mixing properties of the Antarctic polar vortex from analyzed winds, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 98, 23013–23027, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD02599, 1993. a, b, c
Brasseur, G. P. and Solomon, S.: Aeronomy of the Middle Atmosphere: Chemistry and Physics of the Stratosphere and Mesosphere, vol. 32, Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, ISBN 978-1-4020-3284-4 978-1-4020-3824-2, https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3824-0, 2005. a
Chipperfield, M. P., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S., Harris, N. R. P., Hassler, B., Hossaini, R., Steinbrecht, W., Thiéblemont, R., and Weber, M.: Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, Nature, 549, 211–218, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23681, 2017. a
Chubachi, S.: A Special Ozone Observation at Syowa Station, Antarctica from February 1982 to January 1983, in: Atmospheric Ozone, edited by Zerefos, C. S. and Ghazi, A., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 285–289, ISBN 978-94-009-5313-0, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-5313-0_58, 1985. a
Cordero, R. R., Feron, S., Damiani, A., Redondas, A., Carrasco, J., Sepúlveda, E., Jorquera, J., Fernandoy, F., Llanillo, P., Rowe, P. M., and Seckmeyer, G.: Persistent extreme ultraviolet irradiance in Antarctica despite the ozone recovery onset, Scientific Reports, 12, 1266, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05449-8, 2022. a, b
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a
Dhomse, S. S., Kinnison, D., Chipperfield, M. P., Salawitch, R. J., Cionni, I., Hegglin, M. I., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Bednarz, E. M., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Frith, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hassler, B., Horowitz, L. W., Hu, R.-M., Jöckel, P., Josse, B., Kirner, O., Kremser, S., Langematz, U., Lewis, J., Marchand, M., Lin, M., Mancini, E., Marécal, V., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Oman, L., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Schofield, R., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Sudo, K., Tilmes, S., Visioni, D., Yamashita, Y., and Zeng, G.: Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018. a
Domeisen, D. I., Garfinkel, C. I., and Butler, A. H.: The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere, Reviews of Geophysics, 57, 5–47, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000596, 2019. a
Engel, A., Möbius, T., Haase, H.-P., Bönisch, H., Wetter, T., Schmidt, U., Levin, I., Reddmann, T., Oelhaf, H., Wetzel, G., Grunow, K., Huret, N., and Pirre, M.: Observation of mesospheric air inside the arctic stratospheric polar vortex in early 2003, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-267-2006, 2006. a
Farman, J. C., Gardiner, B. G., and Shanklin, J. D.: Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx
Fisher, M., O'Neill, A., and Sutton, R.: Rapid descent of mesospheric air into the stratospheric polar vortex, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 1267–1270, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL01104, 1993. a, b, c
Fleming, E. L., Newman, P. A., Liang, Q., and Oman, L. D.: Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone Impacts of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Water Vapor Injection, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 129, e2023JD039298, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039298, 2024. a
Frith, S. M., Kramarova, N. A., Stolarski, R. S., McPeters, R. D., Bhartia, P. K., and Labow, G. J.: Recent changes in total column ozone based on the SBUV Version 8.6 Merged Ozone Data Set, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 119, 9735–9751, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021889, 2014. a, b
Froidevaux, L., Jiang, Y. B., Lambert, A., Livesey, N. J., Read, W. G., Waters, J. W., Browell, E. V., Hair, J. W., Avery, M. A., McGee, T. J., Twigg, L. W., Sumnicht, G. K., Jucks, K. W., Margitan, J. J., Sen, B., Stachnik, R. A., Toon, G. C., Bernath, P. F., Boone, C. D., Walker, K. A., Filipiak, M. J., Harwood, R. S., Fuller, R. A., Manney, G. L., Schwartz, M. J., Daffer, W. H., Drouin, B. J., Cofield, R. E., Cuddy, D. T., Jarnot, R. F., Knosp, B. W., Perun, V. S., Snyder, W. V., Stek, P. C., Thurstans, R. P., and Wagner, P. A.: Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder stratospheric ozone measurements, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008771, 2008. a
Funke, B., Baumgaertner, A., Calisto, M., Egorova, T., Jackman, C. H., Kieser, J., Krivolutsky, A., López-Puertas, M., Marsh, D. R., Reddmann, T., Rozanov, E., Salmi, S.-M., Sinnhuber, M., Stiller, G. P., Verronen, P. T., Versick, S., von Clarmann, T., Vyushkova, T. Y., Wieters, N., and Wissing, J. M.: Composition changes after the ”Halloween” solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 9089–9139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-9089-2011, 2011. a
Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Stiller, G. P., and von Clarmann, T.: Mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation during 2002–2012, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 119, 4429–4446, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021404, 2014. a
Fusco, A. C. and Salby, M. L.: Interannual Variations of Total Ozone and Their Relationship to Variations of Planetary Wave Activity, J. Clim., 12, 1619–1629, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1619:IVOTOA>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Garcia, R. R. and Boville, B. A.: “Downward Control” of the Mean Meridional Circulation and Temperature Distribution of the Polar Winter Stratosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2238–2245, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2238:COTMMC>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., Silva, A. M. d., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Clim., 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a, b
Gettelman, A., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Smith, A. K., Marsh, D. R., Tilmes, S., Vitt, F., Bardeen, C. G., McInerny, J., Liu, H.-L., Solomon, S. C., Polvani, L. M., Emmons, L. K., Lamarque, J.-F., Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. S., Bacmeister, J. T., Phillips, A. S., Neale, R. B., Simpson, I. R., DuVivier, A. K., Hodzic, A., and Randel, W. J.: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6), J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 124, 12,380–12,403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030943, 2019. a
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): MERRA-2 inst6_3d_ana_Np: 3d,6-Hourly,Instantaneous,Pressure-Level,Analysis,Analyzed Meteorological Fields V5.12.4, GMAO [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/A7S6XP56VZWS, 2015. a, b
Haynes, P. H., McIntyre, M. E., Shepherd, T. G., Marks, C. J., and Shine, K. P.: On the “Downward Control” of Extratropical Diabatic Circulations by Eddy-Induced Mean Zonal Forces, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 651–678, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0651:OTCOED>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, 2023. a
Holton, J. R.: The Influence of Gravity Wave Breaking on the General Circulation of the Middle Atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 2497–2507, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<2497:TIOGWB>2.0.CO;2, 1983. a
Huck, P. E., McDonald, A. J., Bodeker, G. E., and Struthers, H.: Interannual variability in Antarctic ozone depletion controlled by planetary waves and polar temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022943, 2005. a
Ivy, D. J., Solomon, S., Kinnison, D., Mills, M. J., Schmidt, A., and Neely III, R. R.: The influence of the Calbuco eruption on the 2015 Antarctic ozone hole in a fully coupled chemistry-climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2556–2561, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071925, 2017. a
Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Vitt, F. M., Garcia, R. R., Fleming, E. L., Labow, G. J., Randall, C. E., López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., von Clarmann, T., and Stiller, G. P.: Short- and medium-term atmospheric constituent effects of very large solar proton events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 765–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-765-2008, 2008. a
Kawamoto, N. and Shiotani, M.: Interannual variability of the vertical descent rate in the Antarctic polar vortex, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 105, 11935–11946, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900076, 2000. a, b, c, d
Keeley, S. P. E., Gillett, N. P., Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., and Forster, P. M.: Is Antarctic climate most sensitive to ozone depletion in the middle or lower stratosphere?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031238, 2007. a
Klekociuk, A. R., Tully, M. B., Krummel, P. B., Henderson, S. I., Smale, D., Querel, R., Nichol, S., Alexander, S. P., Fraser, P. J., Nedoluha, G., Klekociuk, A. R., Tully, M. B., Krummel, P. B., Henderson, S. I., Smale, D., Querel, R., Nichol, S., Alexander, S. P., Fraser, P. J., and Nedoluha, G.: The Antarctic ozone hole during 2018 and 2019, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 71, 66–91, https://doi.org/10.1071/ES20010, 2021. a, b, c
Klekociuk, A. R., Tully, M. B., Krummel, P. B., Henderson, S. I., Smale, D., Querel, R., Nichol, S., Alexander, S. P., Fraser, P. J., and Nedoluha, G.: The Antarctic ozone hole during 2020, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 72, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.1071/ES21015, 2022. a
Kramarova, N. A.: OMPS-NPP L2 NP Ozone (O3) Vertical Profile swath orbital V2.9, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/FXX5S2VP2FVI, 2024. a
Kravchenko, V. O., Evtushevsky, O. M., Grytsai, A. V., Klekociuk, A. R., Milinevsky, G. P., and Grytsai, Z. I.: Quasi-stationary planetary waves in late winter Antarctic stratosphere temperature as a possible indicator of spring total ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2865–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-2865-2012, 2012. a
Lecouffe, A., Godin-Beekmann, S., Pazmiño, A., and Hauchecorne, A.: Evolution of the intensity and duration of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge for the period 1979–2020, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4187–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4187-2022, 2022. a, b
Lee, J. N., Wu, D. L., Manney, G. L., Schwartz, M. J., Lambert, A., Livesey, N. J., Minschwaner, K. R., Pumphrey, H. C., and Read, W. G.: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations of the polar middle atmosphere: Dynamics and transport of CO and H2O, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014608, 2011. a, b, c
Lee, J. N., Wu, D. L., and Ruzmaikin, A.: Interannual variations of MLS carbon monoxide induced by solar cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 102, 99–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2013.05.012, 2013. a
Lee, J. N., Wu, D. L., Ruzmaikin, A., and Fontenla, J.: Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 170, 21–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2018.02.001, 2018. a
Li, T., Calvo, N., Yue, J., Russell, J. M., Smith, A. K., Mlynczak, M. G., Chandran, A., Dou, X., and Liu, A. Z.: Southern Hemisphere Summer Mesopause Responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, J. Clim., 29, 6319–6328, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0816.1, 2016. a
Lindzen, R. S.: Turbulence and stress owing to gravity wave and tidal breakdown, J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans, 86, 9707–9714, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC10p09707, 1981. a
Livesey, N. J., Read, W. G., Wagner, P. A., Froidevaux, L., Santee, M. L., Schwartz, M. J., Lambert, A., Valle, L. F. M., Pumphrey, H. C., Manney, G. L., Fuller, R. A., Jarnot, R. F., Knosp, B. W., and Lay, R. R.: Version 5.0x Level 2 and 3 data quality and description document., Tech. Rep. JPL D-105336 Rev. B, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, https://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/data/v5-0_data_quality_document.pdf (last access: 1 December 2025), 2022. a, b
Lloyd, S.: Least squares quantization in PCM, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 28, 129–137, https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.1982.1056489, 1982. a, b
Manney, G. L., Zurek, R. W., O'Neill, A., and Swinbank, R.: On the Motion of Air through the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2973–2994, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2973:OTMOAT>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a, b
McLandress, C., Jonsson, A. I., Plummer, D. A., Reader, M. C., Scinocca, J. F., and Shepherd, T. G.: Separating the Dynamical Effects of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere, J. Clim., 23, 5002–5020, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3586.1, 2010. a
Minschwaner, K., Manney, G. L., Livesey, N. J., Pumphrey, H. C., Pickett, H. M., Froidevaux, L., Lambert, A., Schwartz, M. J., Bernath, P. F., Walker, K. A., and Boone, C. D.: The photochemistry of carbon monoxide in the stratosphere and mesosphere evaluated from observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012654, 2010. a
Müller, R., Tilmes, S., Grooß, J.-U., Engel, A., Oelhaf, H., Wetzel, G., Huret, N., Pirre, M., Catoire, V., Toon, G., and Nakajima, H.: Impact of mesospheric intrusions on ozone-tracer relations in the stratospheric polar vortex, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008315, 2007. a
Orr, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Hosking, J. S., Jung, T., Haigh, J. D., Phillips, T., and Feng, W.: Possible Dynamical Mechanisms for Southern Hemisphere Climate Change due to the Ozone Hole, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2917–2932, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0210.1, 2012. a, b
Plumb, R. A., Heres, W., Neu, J. L., Mahowald, N. M., del Corral, J., Toon, G. C., Ray, E., Moore, F., and Andrews, A. E.: Global tracer modeling during SOLVE: High-latitude descent and mixing, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 107, SOL 52-1–SOL 52-14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001023, 2002. a, b
Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D. W., Correa, G. J. P., and Son, S.-W.: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Southern Hemisphere, Journal of Climate, 24, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3772.1, 2011. a, b
Pumphrey, H. C., Filipiak, M. J., Livesey, N. J., Schwartz, M. J., Boone, C., Walker, K. A., Bernath, P., Ricaud, P., Barret, B., Clerbaux, C., Jarnot, R. F., Manney, G. L., and Waters, J. W.: Validation of middle-atmosphere carbon monoxide retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder on Aura, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008723, 2007. a
Purich, A. and Doddridge, E. W.: Record low Antarctic sea ice coverage indicates a new sea ice state, Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00961-9, 2023. a
Randel, W. J. and Wu, F.: Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic Polar Stratospheres due to Ozone Depletion, J. Clim., 12, 1467–1479, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1467:COTAAA>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Randel, W. J., Wu, F., and Stolarski, R.: Changes in Column Ozone Correlated with the Stratospheric EP Flux, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 80, 849–862, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.849, 2002. a
Robertson, F., Revell, L. E., Douglas, H., Archibald, A. T., Morgenstern, O., and Frame, D.: Signal-To-Noise Calculations of Emergence and De-Emergence of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL104246, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104246, 2023. a
Robinson, S. A., Revell, L. E., Mackenzie, R., and Ossola, R.: Extended ozone depletion and reduced snow and ice cover – Consequences for Antarctic biota, Global Change Biology, 30, e17283, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17283, 2024. a
Rosenfield, J. E., Newman, P. A., and Schoeberl, M. R.: Computations of diabatic descent in the stratospheric polar vortex, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 99, 16677–16689, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD01156, 1994. a
Russell III, J. M., Tuck, A. F., Gordley, L. L., Park, J. H., Drayson, S. R., Harries, J. E., Cicerone, R. J., and Crutzen, P. J.: Haloe Antarctic observations in the spring of 1991, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 719–722, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL00497, 1993. a, b, c
Ryan, N. J., Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Hoffmann, C. G., Palm, M., Raffalski, U., and Notholt, J.: Assessing the ability to derive rates of polar middle-atmospheric descent using trace gas measurements from remote sensors, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1457–1474, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1457-2018, 2018. a
Salby, M. L., Titova, E. A., and Deschamps, L.: Changes of the Antarctic ozone hole: Controlling mechanisms, seasonal predictability, and evolution, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016285, 2012. a
Santee, M. L., MacKenzie, I. A., Manney, G. L., Chipperfield, M. P., Bernath, P. F., Walker, K. A., Boone, C. D., Froidevaux, L., Livesey, N. J., and Waters, J. W.: A study of stratospheric chlorine partitioning based on new satellite measurements and modeling, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009057, 2008. a, b
Santee, M. L., Manney, G. L., Lambert, A., Millán, L. F., Livesey, N. J., Pitts, M. C., Froidevaux, L., Read, W. G., and Fuller, R. A.: The Influence of Stratospheric Hydration From the Hunga Eruption on Chemical Processing in the 2023 Antarctic Vortex, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 129, e2023JD040687, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040687, 2024. a
Schoeberl, M. R., Luo, M., and Rosenfield, J. E.: An analysis of the Antarctic Halogen Occultation Experiment trace gas observations, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 100, 5159–5172, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD02749, 1995. a, b, c
Schwartz, M., Froidevaux, L., Livesey, N., and Read, W.: MLS/Aura Level 2 Ozone (O3) Mixing Ratio V005, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/Aura/MLS/DATA2516, 2020a. a, b
Schwartz, M., Pumphrey, H., Livesey, N., and Read, W.: MLS/Aura Level 2 Carbon Monoxide (CO) Mixing Ratio V005, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/Aura/MLS/DATA2506, 2020b. a, b
Siskind, D. E., Eckermann, S. D., Coy, L., McCormack, J. P., and Randall, C. E.: On recent interannual variability of the Arctic winter mesosphere: Implications for tracer descent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029293, 2007. a
Siskind, D. E., Eckermann, S. D., McCormack, J. P., Coy, L., Hoppel, K. W., and Baker, N. L.: Case studies of the mesospheric response to recent minor, major, and extended stratospheric warmings, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014114, 2010. a
Solomon, S., Rusch, D., Gérard, J., Reid, G., and Crutzen, P.: The effect of particle precipitation events on the neutral and ion chemistry of the middle atmosphere: II. Odd hydrogen, Planetary and Space Science, 29, 885–893, https://doi.org/10.1016/0032-0633(81)90078-7, 1981. a
Solomon, S., Garcia, R. R., Olivero, J. J., Bevilacqua, R. M., Schwartz, P. R., Clancy, R. T., and Muhleman, D. O.: Photochemistry and Transport of Carbon Monoxide in the Middle Atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1072–1083, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<1072:PATOCM>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a
Solomon, S., Ivy, D. J., Kinnison, D., Mills, M. J., Neely, R. R., and Schmidt, A.: Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer, Science, 353, 269–274, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aae0061, 2016. a, b
Solomon, S., Stone, K., Yu, P., Murphy, D. M., Kinnison, D., Ravishankara, A. R., and Wang, P.: Chlorine activation and enhanced ozone depletion induced by wildfire aerosol, Nature, 615, 259–264, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05683-0, 2023. a
Son, S.-W., Gerber, E. P., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L. M., Gillett, N. P., Seo, K.-H., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S., Garny, H., Garcia, R., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.: Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014271, 2010. a, b
Stone, K. A., Solomon, S., Kinnison, D. E., Pitts, M. C., Poole, L. R., Mills, M. J., Schmidt, A., Neely III, R. R., Ivy, D., Schwartz, M. J., Vernier, J.-P., Johnson, B. J., Tully, M. B., Klekociuk, A. R., König-Langlo, G., and Hagiya, S.: Observing the Impact of Calbuco Volcanic Aerosols on South Polar Ozone Depletion in 2015, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 122, 11,862–11,879, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026987, 2017. a
Stone, K. A., Solomon, S., and Kinnison, D. E.: On the Identification of Ozone Recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 5158–5165, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077955, 2018. a, b
Stone, K. A., Solomon, S., Kinnison, D. E., and Mills, M. J.: On Recent Large Antarctic Ozone Holes and Ozone Recovery Metrics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095232, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095232, 2021. a
Sutton, R.: Lagrangian flow in the middle atmosphere, Q. J. Royal Met. Soc., 120, 1299–1321, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712051909, 1994. a, b, c, d
Szeląg, M. E., Marsh, D. R., Verronen, P. T., Seppälä, A., and Kalakoski, N.: Ozone impact from solar energetic particles cools the polar stratosphere, Nature Communications, 13, 6883, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34666-y, 2022. a
Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K. M., and Karoly, D. J.: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, Nature Geoscience, 4, 741–749, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1296, 2011. a, b, c, d
Verronen, P. T., Andersson, M. E., Marsh, D. R., Kovács, T., and Plane, J. M. C.: WACCM-D–Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with D-region ion chemistry, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8, 954–975, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000592, 2016. a
Wang, P., Solomon, S., Santer, B. D., Kinnison, D. E., Fu, Q., Stone, K. A., Zhang, J., Manney, G. L., and Millán, L. F.: Fingerprinting the recovery of Antarctic ozone, Nature, 639, 646–651, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08640-9, 2025. a
Weber, M., Dikty, S., Burrows, J. P., Garny, H., Dameris, M., Kubin, A., Abalichin, J., and Langematz, U.: The Brewer-Dobson circulation and total ozone from seasonal to decadal time scales, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11221–11235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11221-2011, 2011. a
Weber, M., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Fioletov, V. E., Frith, S. M., Wild, J. D., Burrows, J. P., Long, C. S., and Loyola, D.: Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2097–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2097-2018, 2018. a, b
Weber, M., Arosio, C., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Fioletov, V. E., Frith, S. M., Wild, J. D., Tourpali, K., Burrows, J. P., and Loyola, D.: Global total ozone recovery trends attributed to ozone-depleting substance (ODS) changes derived from five merged ozone datasets, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6843–6859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6843-2022, 2022. a, b
Wohltmann, I., Santee, M. L., Manney, G. L., and Millán, L. F.: The Chemical Effect of Increased Water Vapor From the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption on the Antarctic Ozone Hole, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL106980, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106980, 2024. a
Yamazaki, Y., Matthias, V., Miyoshi, Y., Stolle, C., Siddiqui, T., Kervalishvili, G., Laštovička, J., Kozubek, M., Ward, W., Themens, D. R., Kristoffersen, S., and Alken, P.: September 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Quasi-6-Day Wave Burst and Ionospheric Effects, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086577, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086577, 2020. a
Yook, S., Thompson, D. W. J., and Solomon, S.: Climate Impacts and Potential Drivers of the Unprecedented Antarctic Ozone Holes of 2020 and 2021, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL098064, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098064, 2022. a
Yu, P., Davis, S. M., Toon, O. B., Portmann, R. W., Bardeen, C. G., Barnes, J. E., Telg, H., Maloney, C., and Rosenlof, K. H.: Persistent Stratospheric Warming Due to 2019–2020 Australian Wildfire Smoke, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL092609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092609, 2021. a
Zambri, B., Solomon, S., Thompson, D. W. J., and Fu, Q.: Emergence of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation changes in response to ozone recovery, Nature Geoscience, 14, 638–644, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00803-3, 2021. a
Zhu, Y., Toon, O. B., Kinnison, D., Harvey, V. L., Mills, M. J., Bardeen, C. G., Pitts, M., Bègue, N., Renard, J.-B., Berthet, G., and Jégou, F.: Stratospheric Aerosols, Polar Stratospheric Clouds, and Polar Ozone Depletion After the Mount Calbuco Eruption in 2015, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 123, 12,308–12,331, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028974, 2018. a
Short summary
We use observational data to track a mass of mesospheric air which descends into the Antarctic polar vortex each spring. The altitude of the air mass at the end of October is used to create a new diagnostic metric. The metric captures the dynamical conditions of the vortex and can be used to estimate the amount of poleward ozone transport in October. When used as a proxy for October polar total column ozone, the metric explains the majority (63%) of the observed variance from 2004–2024.
We use observational data to track a mass of mesospheric air which descends into the Antarctic...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint