Articles | Volume 24, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 04 Dec 2024
| 04 Dec 2024
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Alejandro Uribe
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Frida A.-M. Bender
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Thorsten Mauritsen
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
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The imbalance between the energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and the energy the Earth emits back into space gives rise to climate change, but measuring the small imbalance is challenging. We simulate satellites in various orbits to investigate how well they sample the imbalance and find that the best option is to combine at least two satellites that see complementary parts of the Earth and cover the daily and annual cycles. This information is useful when planning future satellite missions.
Andrea Mosso, Thomas Hocking, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12793–12806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12793-2024, 2024
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Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2981, 2024
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Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10707–10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, 2024
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James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, Erin McClymont, and Sze Ling Ho
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We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, representing the period roughly 3.2 million years before the present day. We estimate that the globally averaged mean temperature was around 3.9 °C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times, but there is significant uncertainty in this value.
Raphael Grodofzig, Martin Renoult, and Thorsten Mauritsen
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Alejandro Baró Pérez, Michael S. Diamond, Frida A.-M. Bender, Abhay Devasthale, Matthias Schwarz, Julien Savre, Juha Tonttila, Harri Kokkola, Hyunho Lee, David Painemal, and Annica M. L. Ekman
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Clare Marie Flynn, Linnea Huusko, Angshuman Modak, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15121–15133, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, 2023
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The latest-generation climate models show surprisingly cold mid-20th century global-mean temperatures, often despite exhibiting more realistic late 20th/early 21st century temperatures. A too-strong aerosol forcing in many models was thought to the be primary cause of these too-cold mid-century temperatures, but this was found to only be a partial explanation. This also partly undermines the hope to construct a strong relationship between the mid-century temperatures and aerosol forcing.
Sushant Das, Frida Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1605, 2023
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Quantifying global and Indian precipitation responses to anthropogenic aerosol and CO2 forcings using multiple models is needed for reducing climate uncertainty. The response to global warming from CO2 increases precipitation both globally and over India, whereas the cooling response to sulfate aerosol leads to a reduction in precipitation in both cases. An opposite response to black carbon is noted i.e., a global decrease but an increase of precipitation over India implying changes in dynamics.
Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7535–7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, 2023
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Aiden R. Jönsson and Frida A.-M. Bender
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 345–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, 2023
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The Earth has nearly the same mean albedo in both hemispheres, a feature not well replicated by climate models. Global warming causes changes in surface and cloud properties that affect albedo and that feed back into the warming. We show that models predict more darkening due to ice loss in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere in response to increasing CO2 concentrations. This is, to varying degrees, counteracted by changes in cloud cover, with implications for cloud feedback on climate.
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Jiang Zhu, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 19, 323–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-323-2023, 2023
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The relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum and the sensitivity of climate models to a doubling of CO2 can be used to estimate the true sensitivity of the Earth. However, this relationship has varied in successive model generations. In this study, we assess multiple processes at the Last Glacial Maximum which weaken this relationship. For example, how models respond to the presence of ice sheets is a large contributor of uncertainty.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Peter Kuma, Frida A.-M. Bender, Alex Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, and Øyvind Seland
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 523–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-523-2023, 2023
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We present a machine learning method for determining cloud types in climate model output and satellite observations based on ground observations of cloud genera. We analyse cloud type biases and changes with temperature in climate models and show that the bias is anticorrelated with climate sensitivity. Models simulating decreasing stratiform and increasing cumuliform clouds with increased CO2 concentration tend to have higher climate sensitivity than models simulating the opposite tendencies.
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 18, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022, 2022
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We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, representing the period 19–23 000 years before the present day. We find that the globally averaged mean temperature was roughly 4.5 °C colder than it was in pre-industrial times, albeit there is significant uncertainty on this value.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Abhay Devasthale, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6053–6077, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6053-2021, 2021
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We study the impacts of above-cloud biomass burning plumes on radiation and clouds over the southeast Atlantic using data derived from satellite observations and data-constrained model simulations. A substantial amount of the aerosol within the plumes is not classified as smoke by the satellite. The atmosphere warms more with increasing smoke aerosol loading. No clear influence of aerosol type, loading, or moisture within the overlying aerosol plumes is detected on the cloud top cooling rates.
Jule Radtke, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Cathy Hohenegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3275–3288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3275-2021, 2021
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Shallow trade wind clouds are a key source of uncertainty to projections of the Earth's changing climate. We perform high-resolution simulations of trade cumulus and investigate how the representation and climate feedback of these clouds depend on the specific grid spacing. We find that the cloud feedback is positive when simulated with kilometre but near zero when simulated with hectometre grid spacing. These findings suggest that storm-resolving models may exaggerate the trade cloud feedback.
Lena Frey, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Gunilla Svensson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 577–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-577-2021, 2021
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We investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol in the climate model NorESM1-M in five regions of marine stratocumulus clouds. We thereby analyze the total aerosol extinction to facilitate a comparison with satellite data. We find that the model underestimates aerosol extinction throughout the troposphere, especially elevated aerosol layers. Further, we perform sensitivity experiments to identify the processes most important for vertical aerosol distribution in our model.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
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Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, 2020
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In this paper we explore the potential of variability for constraining the equilibrium response of the climate system to external forcing. We show that the constraint is inherently skewed, with a long tail to high sensitivity, and that while the variability may contain some useful information, it is unlikely to generate a tight constraint.
Clare Marie Flynn and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7829–7842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020, 2020
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The range of climate sensitivity of models participating in CMIP6 has increased relative to models participating in CMIP5 due to decreases in the total feedback parameter. This is caused by increases in the shortwave all-sky and clear-sky feedbacks, particularly over the Southern Ocean. These shifts between CMIP6 and CMIP5 did not arise by chance. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are found to exhibit aerosol forcing that is too strong, causing too much cooling relative to observations.
Anna Possner, Ryan Eastman, Frida Bender, and Franziska Glassmeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3609–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3609-2020, 2020
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Cloud water content and the number of droplets inside clouds covary with boundary layer depth. This covariation may amplify the change in water content due to a change in droplet number inferred from long-term observations. Taking this into account shows that the change in water content for increased droplet number in observations and high-resolution simulations agrees in shallow boundary layers. Meanwhile, deep boundary layers are under-sampled in process-scale simulations and observations.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Brian H. Kahn, Mark D. Zelinka, Chihiro Kodama, Thorsten Mauritsen, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm Roberts, Pier L. Vidale, David Saint-Martin, Aurore Voldoire, Rein Haarsma, Adrian Hill, Ben Shipway, and Jonathan Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1147–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1147-2019, 2019
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The largest single source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity predicted by global climate models is how much low-altitude clouds change as the climate warms. Models predict that the amount of liquid within and the brightness of low-altitude clouds increase in the extratropics with warming. We show that increased fluxes of moisture into extratropical storms in the midlatitudes explain the majority of the observed trend and the modeled increase in liquid water within these storms.
Quentin Bourgeois, Annica M. L. Ekman, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Radovan Krejci, Abhay Devasthale, Frida A.-M. Bender, Ilona Riipinen, Gwenaël Berthet, and Jason L. Tackett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7709–7720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7709-2018, 2018
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The altitude of aerosols is crucial as they can impact cloud formation and radiation. In this study, satellite observations have been used to characterize the global aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The free troposphere contributes 39 % to the global AOD during daytime. Overall, the results have implications for the description of budgets, sources, sinks and transport of aerosol particles as presently described in the atmospheric model.
Daniel T. McCoy, Paul R. Field, Anja Schmidt, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Frida A.-M. Bender, Ben J. Shipway, Adrian A. Hill, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, and Gregory S. Elsaesser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5821-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5821-2018, 2018
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Here we use a combination of global convection-permitting models, satellite observations and the Holuhraun volcanic eruption to demonstrate that aerosol enhances the cloud liquid content and brightness of midlatitude cyclones. This is important because the strength of anthropogenic radiative forcing is uncertain, leading to uncertainty in the climate sensitivity consistent with observed temperature record.
Andrew E. Dessler, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5147–5155, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5147-2018, 2018
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One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations.
Daniel T. McCoy, Frida A.-M. Bender, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Johannes K. Mohrmann, Dennis L. Hartmann, Robert Wood, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2035–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2035-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2035-2018, 2018
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The interaction between clouds and aerosols represents the largest source of uncertainty in the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the state variable that moderates the interaction between aerosol and clouds. Here we show that CDNC decreases off the coasts of East Asia and North America due to controls on emissions. We support this analysis through an examination of volcanism in Hawaii and Vanuatu.
Lena Frey, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Gunilla Svensson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9145–9162, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9145-2017, 2017
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In this study, the cloud albedo effect in climate models is investigated, separating the influence of anthropogenic sulfate and non-sulfate aerosols. Cloud albedo changes induced by added anthropogenic aerosols are found to be determined by changes in the cloud water content rather than model sensitivity to monthly aerosol variations. The results also indicate that the background aerosol is the main driver for a cloud brightening effect on the month-to-month scale.
Bjorn Stevens, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Karsten Peters, Sebastian Rast, Jobst Müsse, Steven J. Smith, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017
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A simple analytic description of aerosol optical properties and their main effects on clouds is developed and described. The analytic description is easy to use and easy to modify and should aid experimentation to help understand how aerosol radiative and cloud interactions effect climate and circulation. The climatology is recommended for adoption by models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Kristina Pistone, Puppala S. Praveen, Rick M. Thomas, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Eric M. Wilcox, and Frida A.-M. Bender
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5203–5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5203-2016, 2016
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A recent field campaign (CARDEX) in the northern Indian Ocean concurrently measured cloud and aerosol properties and atmospheric structure and dynamics from a ground-based observatory and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These new measurements show a correlation between highly polluted conditions and increased cloud water content, concurrent with higher atmospheric temperature and humidity. Such correlations may be of interest in future studies of the effects of pollution on cloud properties.
F. Höpner, F. A.-M. Bender, A. M. L. Ekman, P. S. Praveen, C. Bosch, J. A. Ogren, A. Andersson, Ö. Gustafsson, and V. Ramanathan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1045–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1045-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1045-2016, 2016
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The paper presents aerosol properties measured during the Cloud Aerosol Radiative Forcing Experiment (CARDEX) on the Maldives Islands in winter 2012. The vertical distribution of absorbing aerosol which is very relevant to the radiative forcing in that region, is investigated. A method for determining particle absorption and equivalent black carbon concentration from lidar extinction coefficients, characteristic single scattering albedo and mass absorption efficiency, is presented and evaluated.
M. Tjernström, C. Leck, C. E. Birch, J. W. Bottenheim, B. J. Brooks, I. M. Brooks, L. Bäcklin, R. Y.-W. Chang, G. de Leeuw, L. Di Liberto, S. de la Rosa, E. Granath, M. Graus, A. Hansel, J. Heintzenberg, A. Held, A. Hind, P. Johnston, J. Knulst, M. Martin, P. A. Matrai, T. Mauritsen, M. Müller, S. J. Norris, M. V. Orellana, D. A. Orsini, J. Paatero, P. O. G. Persson, Q. Gao, C. Rauschenberg, Z. Ristovski, J. Sedlar, M. D. Shupe, B. Sierau, A. Sirevaag, S. Sjogren, O. Stetzer, E. Swietlicki, M. Szczodrak, P. Vaattovaara, N. Wahlberg, M. Westberg, and C. R. Wheeler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2823–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2823-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2823-2014, 2014
M. D. Shupe, P. O. G. Persson, I. M. Brooks, M. Tjernström, J. Sedlar, T. Mauritsen, S. Sjogren, and C. Leck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9379–9399, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9379-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9379-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Contrasting the roles of regional anthropogenic aerosols from the western and eastern hemispheres in driving the 1980–2020 Pacific multi-decadal variations
A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models
Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming
Using a region-specific ice-nucleating particle parameterization improves the representation of Arctic clouds in a global climate model
Small emission sources in aggregate disproportionately account for a large majority of total methane emissions from the US oil and gas sector
Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels
Satellite quantification of methane emissions from South American countries: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI and GOSAT observations
To what extent does the CO2 diurnal cycle impact flux estimates derived from global and regional inversions?
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?
Investigating the limiting aircraft design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation
Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under carbon neutrality scenario: Key meteorological parameters and processes
Highly-resolved satellite remote sensing based land-use change inventory yields weaker surface albedo-induced global cooling
Measurement report: Can Zenith Wet Delay from GNSS "see" atmospheric turbulence? Insights from case studies across diverse climate zones
Investigation of the characteristics of low-level jets over North America in a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulation
Impacts of tropical cyclone–heat wave compound events on surface ozone in eastern China: comparison between the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes surface warming relative to preindustrial conditions
A novel method for detecting tropopause structures based on the bi-Gaussian function
Too cold, too saturated? Evaluating climate models at the gateway to the Arctic
Unraveling the discrepancies between Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture tracking models in monsoon- and westerly-dominated basins of the Tibetan Plateau
Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2
Multi-scale variability of southeastern Australian wind resources
Parameterizations for global thundercloud corona discharge distributions
The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance
Relative humidity over ice as a key variable for Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropopause inversion layers
Modelled surface climate response to Icelandic effusive volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to season and size
Technical note: Posterior uncertainty estimation via a Monte Carlo procedure specialized for 4D-Var data assimilation
Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective
Interannual variations in Siberian carbon uptake and carbon release period
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling
Weak surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions, with quantification confounded by internal variability
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path
Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions
Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI
Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?
Emission Inventory Development for Spatiotemporal Release of Vanadium from Anthropogenic Sources in China
Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
Water vapour exchange between the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere over eastern China: seasonal characteristics and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation anomaly
Strong aerosol cooling alone does not explain cold-biased mid-century temperatures in CMIP6 models
Air pollution reductions caused by the COVID-19 lockdown open up a way to preserve the Himalayan glaciers
Modeling atmosphere–land interactions at a rainforest site – a case study using Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) measurements and reanalysis data
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, Aixue Hu, and Zhili Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2167–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, 2025
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Industrial aerosol increases in Asia and reductions in North America and Europe in 1980–2020 influenced climate changes over the Pacific Ocean differently. Asian aerosols caused El Niño-like temperature patterns and slightly weakened the natural variation in the North Pacific, while reduced emissions of western countries led to extensive warming in middle–high latitudes of the North Pacific. Human impacts on the Pacific climate may change when emission reduction occurs over Asia in the future.
Brandon M. Duran, Casey J. Wall, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Takuro Michibata, Po-Lun Ma, Yi Qin, Margaret L. Duffy, Brian Medeiros, and Matvey Debolskiy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2123–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, 2025
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We use satellite simulator data generated by global climate models to investigate how aerosol particles impact the radiative properties of liquid clouds. Specifically, we quantify the radiative perturbations arising from aerosol-driven changes in the number density of cloud droplets, the vertically integrated cloud water mass, and the cloud amount. Our results show that, in models, aerosol effects on the number density of cloud droplets contribute the most to anthropogenic climate forcing.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
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People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
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Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
James P. Williams, Mark Omara, Anthony Himmelberger, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Katlyn MacKay, Joshua Benmergui, Maryann Sargent, Steven C. Wofsy, Steven P. Hamburg, and Ritesh Gautam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1513–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, 2025
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We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior work to estimate the relative contributions of methane sources emitting at different emission rates in the United States. We find that the majority of total methane emissions in the US oil and gas sector stem from a large number of small sources emitting in aggregate, corroborating findings from several other studies.
Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, and Stephen A. Klein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1477–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, 2025
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Clouds lie at the heart of uncertainty in both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, making it imperative to properly diagnose their radiative effects. Here we provide a recommended methodology and code base for the community to use in performing such diagnoses using cloud radiative kernels. We show that properly accounting for changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds is important for accurate diagnosis and attribution of cloud feedbacks and adjustments.
Sarah E. Hancock, Daniel J. Jacob, Zichong Chen, Hannah Nesser, Aaron Davitt, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Nicholas Balasus, Lucas A. Estrada, María Cazorla, Laura Dawidowski, Sebastián Diez, James D. East, Elise Penn, Cynthia A. Randles, John Worden, Ilse Aben, Robert J. Parker, and Joannes D. Maasakkers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 797–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, 2025
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We quantify 2021 methane emissions in South America at up to 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 55 % upward adjustment to anthropogenic emission inventories, including those reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement. Our estimates match inventories for Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay but are much higher for other countries. Livestock emissions (65 % of anthropogenic emissions) show the largest discrepancies.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
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Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Liam Megill and Volker Grewe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3398, 2024
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This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to conventional aircraft.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3470, 2024
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Climate change over 2010–2045 under carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase ozone levels in China in the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0. Future climate change increases summertime MDA8 O3 levels by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv in eastern China, North China Plain, and Yangtze River Delta, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and RH are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process for climate-driven ozone increases in eastern China.
Xiaohu Jian, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Yuan Zhao, Ruiyu Zhugu, and Jianmin Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1497, 2024
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We implemented a new global land use change (LUC) dataset on a 5 km×5 km resolution from 1982 to 2010 into a compact earth system model OSCAR and carried out extensive multiple model scenario simulations. Our result reveals that the global radiative forcing (RF) induced by LUC driving surface albedo change is -0.12 W m-2, 20 % lower than IPCC, and vegetation changes play a key role in RF evolution, which provides an important references for the assessment of earth energy balance.
Gael Kermarrec, Xavier Calbet, Zhiguo Deng, and Cintia Carbajal Henken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2680, 2024
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Microwave signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems are delayed as they travel through the troposphere, Whereas the hydrostatic delay is predictable, the wet delay, tied to atmospheric moisture, is highly variable. This study introduces a method to analyze small-scale zenith wet delay variations, showing specific daily and seasonal turbulence-influenced patterns in various climate zones. These findings can improve weather forecasting and the accuracy of satellite positioning systems.
Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, and Fei Huo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12013–12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, 2024
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This study uses 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting simulations to investigate the features of low-level jets (LLJs) in North America. It identifies significant LLJ systems, such as the Great Plains LLJ. It also provides insight into LLJs poorly captured in coarser models, such as the northerly Quebec LLJ and the small-scale, low-level wind maxima around the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the study examines different physical mechanisms of forming three distinct types of LLJs.
Cuini Qi, Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Hui Zhang, Lili Ren, Xipeng Jin, Chenchao Zhan, Jianping Tang, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11775–11789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, 2024
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We investigate extremely hot weather impacts on surface ozone over the southeastern coast of China with and without tropical cyclones. Compared to hot days alone, ozone concentration decreased notably in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) but increased in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during tropical cyclones and hot days. The YRD benefited from strong and clean sea winds aiding ozone elimination. In contrast, the PRD experienced strong northeasterly winds that potentially transport ozone pollution.
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, and Wenchang Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11275–11283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, 2024
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The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
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Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Kun Zhang, Tao Luo, Xuebin Li, Shengcheng Cui, Ningquan Weng, Yinbo Huang, and Yingjian Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11157–11173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, 2024
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In order to deeply understand the formation mechanisms and evolution processes associated with vertical tropopause structures, this study proposes a new method for identifying the multiple characteristic parameters of vertical tropopause structures by fitting temperature profiles using the bi-Gaussian function. The identification results from the bi-Gaussian method are more reasonable and more consistent with the evolution process of atmospheric thermal stratifications.
Felix Pithan, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Marion Maturilli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2961, 2024
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Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Shibo Yao, Bo Sun, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10741–10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, 2024
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For moisture tracking over the Tibetan Plateau, we recommend using high-resolution forcing datasets, prioritizing temporal resolution over spatial resolution for WAM2layers, while for FLEXPART coupled with WaterSip, we suggest applying bias corrections to optimize the filtering of precipitation particles and adjust evaporation estimates.
Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10707–10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, 2024
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Aerosol particles, from natural and human sources, have a cooling effect on the climate, partially offsetting global warming. They do this through direct (sunlight reflection) and indirect (cloud property alteration) mechanisms. Using a global climate model, we found that, despite declining emissions, the direct effect of human aerosols has increased while the indirect effect has decreased, which is attributed to the shift in emissions from North America and Europe to Southeast Asia.
Claire L. Vincent and Andrew J. Dowdy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10209–10223, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, 2024
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We investigate how wind speed at the height of a wind turbine changes during El Niño and La Niña years and with season and time of day in southeastern Australia. We found that El Niño and La Niña can cause average wind speed differences of around 1 m s-1 in some regions. The highest wind speeds occur in the afternoon or evening around mountains or the coast and during the night for inland areas. The results help show how placement of wind turbines can help balance electricity generation.
Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Patrick Jöckel, Torsten Neubert, Olivier Chanrion, Victor Reglero, and Nikolai Østgaard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10225–10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, 2024
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Sudden local ozone (O3) enhancements have been reported in different regions of the world since the 1970s. While the hot channel of lightning strokes directly produce significant amounts of nitrogen oxide, no direct emission of O3 is expected. Corona discharges in convective active regions could explain local O3 increases, which remains unexplained. We present the first mathematical functions that relate the global annual frequency of in-cloud coronas with four sets of meteorological variables.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
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This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Daniel Köhler, Philipp Reutter, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10055–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, 2024
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In this work, the influence of humidity on the properties of the tropopause is studied. The tropopause is the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere and represents a barrier for the transport of air masses between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We consider not only the tropopause itself, but also a layer around it called the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). It is shown that the moister the underlying atmosphere is, the more this layer acts as a barrier.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2651, 2024
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We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude, effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size with a special focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response with Arctic surface warming in winter and cooling in summer. Also, as eruptions become larger in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in the emission strength.
Michael Stanley, Mikael Kuusela, Brendan Byrne, and Junjie Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9419–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, 2024
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To serve the uncertainty quantification (UQ) needs of 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) practitioners, we describe and justify a UQ algorithm from carbon flux inversion and incorporate its sampling uncertainty into the final reported UQ. The algorithm is mathematically proved, and its performance is shown for a carbon flux observing system simulation experiment. These results legitimize and generalize this algorithm's current use and make available this effective algorithm to new DA domains.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh, Swarnali Sanyal, and Donald J. Wuebbles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9219–9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, 2024
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Radiative forcing of contrails could triple by 2050 due to increased air traffic and potential changes in flight altitudes. Factors like air traffic patterns, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, and climate change further influence this impact. By highlighting gaps in knowledge and uncertainties, this research helps set priorities for future studies and assess strategies to mitigate the environmental impact of aviation emissions.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8105–8123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, 2024
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I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel Westervelt, Andrew Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946, 2024
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03°C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7347–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, 2024
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Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
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Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Flora Maria Brocza, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Fabian Wagner, and Jenny Marie Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7385–7404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, 2024
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To understand how atmospheric mercury levels will change in the future, we model how anthropogenic Hg releases will change following developments in human energy use and mercury use and efforts to reduce pollution and battle climate change. Overall, the findings emphasize that it will be necessary to implement targeted Hg control measures in addition to stringent climate and clean air policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, and Robert C. J. Wills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7041–7062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, 2024
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Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a balanced approach to improving their accuracy by combining traditional process-based methods with modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques while maximizing the resolution to allow for ensemble simulations. The authors propose using AI to learn from both observational and simulated data while incorporating existing physical knowledge to reduce data demands and improve climate prediction reliability.
Brian Nathan, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Stijn Naus, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Robert J. Parker, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6845–6863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, 2024
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Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo region is notoriously hard to observe from space and features intensive oil exploitation, although production has strongly decreased in recent years. We estimate methane emissions using 2018–2020 TROPOMI satellite observations with national and regional transport models. Despite the production decrease, we find relatively constant emissions from Lake Maracaibo between 2018 and 2020, indicating that there could be large emissions from abandoned infrastructure.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
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We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Steven C. Sherwood and Chris E. Forest
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2679–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, 2024
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The most fundamental parameter used to gauge the severity of future climate change is the so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity, which measures the warming that would ultimately occur due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Due to recent advances it is now thought to probably lie in the range 2.5–4 °C. We discuss this and the issues involved in evaluating and using the number, pointing to some pitfalls in current efforts but also possibilities for further progress.
Han Zhang, Baogang Zhang, Bo Jiang, Qimin Li, Xuewen Hu, and Yi Xing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-10, 2024
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We developed the vanadium emission inventories of anthropogenic sources in China during 2015–2019. We identified five major emission sources, including coal combustion, oil burning, transportation, industrial manufacture, and waste handling. Emission outputs were calculated by integrating the emission factors and activity levels of vanadium related processes. Our results identified the key emitters and highlighted the spatial and temporal patterns of vanadium releases.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
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Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Xipeng Jin, Xuhui Cai, Xuesong Wang, Qianqian Huang, Yu Song, Ling Kang, Hongsheng Zhang, and Tong Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 259–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, 2024
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This work presents a climatology of water vapour exchange flux between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and free troposphere (FT) over eastern China. The water vapour exchange maintains ABL humidity in cold months and moistens the FT in warm seasons, and its distribution has terrain-dependent features. The exchange flux is correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and precipitation pattern. The study provides new insight into moisture transport and extreme weather.
Clare Marie Flynn, Linnea Huusko, Angshuman Modak, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15121–15133, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, 2023
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The latest-generation climate models show surprisingly cold mid-20th century global-mean temperatures, often despite exhibiting more realistic late 20th/early 21st century temperatures. A too-strong aerosol forcing in many models was thought to the be primary cause of these too-cold mid-century temperatures, but this was found to only be a partial explanation. This also partly undermines the hope to construct a strong relationship between the mid-century temperatures and aerosol forcing.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Bernd Heinold, T. P. Sabin, Anne Kubin, Katty Huang, Alexandru Rap, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10439–10449, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, 2023
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The influence of the COVID-19 lockdown on the Himalayas caused increases in snow cover and a decrease in runoff, ultimately leading to an enhanced snow water equivalent. Our findings highlight that, out of the two processes causing a retreat of Himalayan glaciers – (1) slow response to global climate change and (2) fast response to local air pollution – a policy action on the latter is more likely to be within the reach of possible policy action to help billions of people in southern Asia.
Amelie U. Schmitt, Felix Ament, Alessandro C. de Araújo, Marta Sá, and Paulo Teixeira
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9323–9346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9323-2023, 2023
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Tall vegetation in forests affects the exchange of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and the land surface. We compared measurements from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory to results from a land surface model to identify model shortcomings. Our results suggest that soil temperatures in the model could be improved by incorporating a separate canopy layer which represents the heat storage within the forest.
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Short summary
Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to shifts in Earth's energy balance at the atmosphere's top due to natural temperature variations. It takes roughly 50 years to establish this connection. Combined satellite observations and reanalysis suggest that Earth cools more than expected under carbon dioxide influence. However, continuous satellite data until at least the mid-2030s are crucial for refining our understanding of climate feedbacks.
Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to...
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