Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s

Uribe, Alejandro; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Mauritsen, Thorsten

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 23

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 23

Research article

|

04 Dec 2024

Research article |

| 04 Dec 2024

Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s

Alejandro Uribe, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen

Data sets

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012 (https://www.met.reading.ac.uk/%7Esgs02rpa/research/DEEP-C/GRL/) R. P. Allan et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060962

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/) V. Eyring et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016

The ERA5 global reanalysis (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7) H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy Sys- tem (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product (https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/data/) N. G. Loeb et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1

An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/) C. P. Morice et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361

Model code and software

Replication Data for figures in: Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s A. Uribe et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14219552

Short summary

Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to shifts in Earth's energy balance at the atmosphere's top due to natural temperature variations. It takes roughly 50 years to establish this connection. Combined satellite observations and reanalysis suggest that Earth cools more than expected under carbon dioxide influence. However, continuous satellite data until at least the mid-2030s are crucial for refining our understanding of climate feedbacks.