Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3133-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3133-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 10 Mar 2023
| 10 Mar 2023
South Pole Station ozonesondes: variability and trends in the springtime Antarctic ozone hole 1986–2021
Bryan J. Johnson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Global Monitoring Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA,
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Patrick Cullis
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Global Monitoring Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA,
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
John Booth
Global Monitoring Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA,
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
deceased
Irina Petropavlovskikh
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Global Monitoring Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA,
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Glen McConville
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Global Monitoring Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA,
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Birgit Hassler
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft & Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Gary A. Morris
Global Monitoring Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA,
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Chance Sterling
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
C&D Technologies/Trojan Battery Company, Horsham, PA 19044, USA
Samuel Oltmans
Global Monitoring Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA,
Boulder, CO 80305, USA
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Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Debra E. Kollonige, Jerald R. Ziemke, Bryan J. Johnson, Gary A. Morris, Patrick Cullis, María Cazorla, Jorge Andres Diaz, Ankie Piters, Igor Nedeljkovic, Truus Warsodikromo, Francisco Raimundo Silva, E. Thomas Northam, Patrick Benjamin, Thumeka Mkololo, Tshidi Machinini, Christian Félix, Gonzague Romanens, Syprose Nyadida, Jérôme Brioude, Stéphanie Evan, Jean-Marc Metzger, Ambun Dindang, Yuzaimi B. Mahat, Mohan Kumar Sammathuria, Norazura Binti Zakaria, Ninong Komala, Shin-Ya Ogino, Nguyen Thi Quyen, Francis S. Mani, Miriama Vuiyasawa, David Nardini, Matthew Martinsen, Darryl T. Kuniyuki, Katrin Müller, Pawel Wolff, and Bastien Sauvage
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas and an air pollutant whose distribution and time variability are mainly governed by anthropogenic emissions and dynamics. In this paper, we assess regional trends of tropospheric ozone column amounts, based on two different approaches of merging or synthesizing ground-based observations and their trends within specific regions. Our findings clearly demonstrate regional trend differences but also consistently higher pre-COVID than post-COVID trends.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7187–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7187-2025, 2025
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas and is an air pollutant. The time variability of tropospheric ozone is mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions. In this paper, we study the distribution and time variability of ozone from harmonized ground-based observations from five different measurement techniques. Our findings provide clear standard references for atmospheric models and evolving tropospheric ozone satellite data for the 2000–2022 period.
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeannette D. Wild, Kari Abromitis, Peter Effertz, Koji Miyagawa, Lawrence E. Flynn, Eliane Maillard Barras, Robert Damadeo, Glen McConville, Bryan Johnson, Patrick Cullis, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Gerard Ancellet, Richard Querel, Roeland Van Malderen, and Daniel Zawada
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2895–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2895-2025, 2025
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Observational records show that stratospheric ozone is recovering in accordance with the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Natural ozone variability complicates the detection of small trends. This study optimizes a statistical model fit in ground-station-based observational records by adding parameters that interpret seasonal and long-term changes in atmospheric circulation and airmass mixing, which reduces uncertainties in detecting the stratospheric ozone recovery.
Zhou Zang, Jane Liu, David Tarasick, Omid Moeini, Jianchun Bian, Jinqiang Zhang, Anne M. Thompson, Roeland Van Malderen, Herman G. J. Smit, Ryan M. Stauffer, Bryan J. Johnson, and Debra E. Kollonige
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13889–13912, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13889-2024, 2024
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The Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde dataset for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST) provides a global-scale, long-term ozone climatology that is horizontally and vertically resolved. In this study, we improved, updated and validated TOST from 1970 to 2021. Based on this TOST dataset, we characterized global ozone variations spatially in both the troposphere and stratosphere and temporally by season and decade. We also showed a stagnant lower stratospheric ozone variation since the late 1990s.
Andrew O. Langford, Raul J. Alvarez II, Kenneth C. Aikin, Sunil Baidar, W. Alan Brewer, Steven S. Brown, Matthew M. Coggan, Patrick D. Cullis, Jessica Gilman, Georgios I. Gkatzelis, Detlev Helmig, Bryan J. Johnson, K. Emma Knowland, Rajesh Kumar, Aaron D. Lamplugh, Audra McClure-Begley, Brandi J. McCarty, Ann M. Middlebrook, Gabriele Pfister, Jeff Peischl, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Pamela S. Rickley, Andrew W. Rollins, Scott P. Sandberg, Christoph J. Senff, and Carsten Warneke
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Preprint withdrawn
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Stratospheric ozone within the Southern Hemisphere springtime polar vortex has been a subject of intense research since the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. The wintertime ozone in the vortex is less studied. We show that the recent wintertime ozone values over the South Pole were about 12 % below the pre-1980s level; i.e., the decline there was nearly twice as large as that over southern midlatitudes. Thus, wintertime ozone there can be used as an indicator of the ozone layer state.
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Koji Miyagawa, Audra McClure-Beegle, Bryan Johnson, Jeannette Wild, Susan Strahan, Krzysztof Wargan, Richard Querel, Lawrence Flynn, Eric Beach, Gerard Ancellet, and Sophie Godin-Beekmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1849–1870, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1849-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1849-2022, 2022
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The Montreal Protocol and its amendments assure the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. To monitor ozone recovery, multiple satellites and ground-based observational platforms collect ozone data. The changes in instruments can influence the continuation of the ozone data. We discuss a method to remove instrumental artifacts from ozone records to improve the internal consistency among multiple observational records.
Daan Hubert, Klaus-Peter Heue, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Tijl Verhoelst, Marc Allaart, Steven Compernolle, Patrick D. Cullis, Angelika Dehn, Christian Félix, Bryan J. Johnson, Arno Keppens, Debra E. Kollonige, Christophe Lerot, Diego Loyola, Matakite Maata, Sukarni Mitro, Maznorizan Mohamad, Ankie Piters, Fabian Romahn, Henry B. Selkirk, Francisco R. da Silva, Ryan M. Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, J. Pepijn Veefkind, Holger Vömel, Jacquelyn C. Witte, and Claus Zehner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7405–7433, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7405-2021, 2021
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We assess the first 2 years of TROPOMI tropical tropospheric ozone column data. Comparisons to reference measurements by ozonesonde and satellite sensors show that TROPOMI bias (−0.1 to +2.3 DU) and precision (1.5 to 2.5 DU) meet mission requirements. Potential causes of bias and its spatio-temporal structure are discussed, as well as ways to identify sampling errors. Our analysis of known geophysical patterns demonstrates the improved performance of TROPOMI with respect to its predecessors.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5963, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. Analyses confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3 % decade-1. The trends are close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant.
Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Debra E. Kollonige, Jerald R. Ziemke, Bryan J. Johnson, Gary A. Morris, Patrick Cullis, María Cazorla, Jorge Andres Diaz, Ankie Piters, Igor Nedeljkovic, Truus Warsodikromo, Francisco Raimundo Silva, E. Thomas Northam, Patrick Benjamin, Thumeka Mkololo, Tshidi Machinini, Christian Félix, Gonzague Romanens, Syprose Nyadida, Jérôme Brioude, Stéphanie Evan, Jean-Marc Metzger, Ambun Dindang, Yuzaimi B. Mahat, Mohan Kumar Sammathuria, Norazura Binti Zakaria, Ninong Komala, Shin-Ya Ogino, Nguyen Thi Quyen, Francis S. Mani, Miriama Vuiyasawa, David Nardini, Matthew Martinsen, Darryl T. Kuniyuki, Katrin Müller, Pawel Wolff, and Bastien Sauvage
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 18475–18507, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18475-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18475-2025, 2025
Short summary
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Ozone profile trends from SHADOZ sondes and IAGOS aircraft show that ozone in the tropical free troposphere (FT) is not growing fast except over equatorial SE Asia. This agrees with HEGIFTOM (Van Malderen et al., 2025), Stauffer et al. (2024) and Gaudel et al. (2024) TOAR-II papers. Other findings are as follows: (1) our trends are independent of method (QR, MLR) and (2) sample number (SN) (i.e., SHADOZ sampling is sufficient), and (3) all ground-based trends constitute the gold standard for satellite-derived trends.
Jingyu Wang, Gabriel Chiodo, Blanca Ayarzagüena, William T. Ball, Mohamadou Diallo, Birgit Hassler, James Keeble, Peer Nowack, Clara Orbe, Sandro Vattioni, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17819–17844, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17819-2025, 2025
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We analyzed the ozone response under elevated CO2 using the data from CMIP6 DECK experiments. We then examined the relations between ozone response and changes in temperature and circulation to identify the drivers of ozone change. The climate feedback of ozone is investigated through offline calculations and by comparing models with and without interactive chemistry. We find that ozone–climate interactions are important for Earth system models and thus should be considered in future model development.
Alex C. Ruane, Charlotte L. Pascoe, Claas Teichmann, David J. Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Ibrahima Diouf, Jesus Fernandez, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Birgit Hassler, Vanessa Hernaman, Ulas Im, Doroteaciro Iovino, Martin Juckes, Iréne L. Lake, Timothy Lam, Xiaomao Lin, Jiafu Mao, Negin Nazarian, Sylvie Parey, Indrani Roy, Wan-Ling Tseng, Briony Turner, Andrew Wiebe, Lei Zhao, and Damaris Zurell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9497–9540, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9497-2025, 2025
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This paper describes how the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project organized its 7th phase (CMIP7) to encourage the production of Earth system model outputs relevant for impacts and adaptation. Community engagement identified 13 opportunities for application across human and natural systems, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables. We also show how simulations can more efficiently meet applications needs by targeting appropriate resolution, time slices, experiments and variable groups.
Evgenia Galytska, Birgit Hassler, Carlo Arosio, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Kimberlee Dubé, Wuhu Feng, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Jakob Runge
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6426983/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6426983/v2, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We explored how chemical and dynamical processes shape ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere. Using a method that identifies cause and effect with satellite data and a chemistry-transport model, we found that from 2004–2011 nitrous oxide quickly affected nitrogen dioxide and ozone, while from 2012–2018 this effect was delayed, weakening ozone loss. Large-scale winds also influenced this link, clarifying how different mechanisms control ozone.
John P. Dunne, Helene T. Hewitt, Julie M. Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Beth Dingley, Paul J. Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matt Mizielinski, Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Robert Pincus, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Isla R. Simpson, and Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6671–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025, 2025
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The seventh phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) coordinates efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations for prediction and projection; characterization, attribution, and process understanding; and vulnerability, impact, and adaptation analysis. Key to the CMIP7 design are the mandatory Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima and optional Assessment Fast Track experiments.
Roeland Van Malderen, Zhou Zang, Kai-Lan Chang, Robin Björklund, Owen R. Cooper, Jane Liu, Eliane Maillard Barras, Corinne Vigouroux, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Thierry Leblanc, Valérie Thouret, Pawel Wolff, Peter Effertz, Audrey Gaudel, David W. Tarasick, Herman G. J. Smit, Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Debra E. Kollonige, Deniz Poyraz, Gérard Ancellet, Marie-Renée De Backer, Matthias M. Frey, James W. Hannigan, José L. Hernandez, Bryan J. Johnson, Nicholas Jones, Rigel Kivi, Emmanuel Mahieu, Isamu Morino, Glen McConville, Katrin Müller, Isao Murata, Justus Notholt, Ankie Piters, Maxime Prignon, Richard Querel, Vincenzo Rizi, Dan Smale, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Kimberly Strong, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9905–9935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9905-2025, 2025
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas and an air pollutant whose distribution and time variability are mainly governed by anthropogenic emissions and dynamics. In this paper, we assess regional trends of tropospheric ozone column amounts, based on two different approaches of merging or synthesizing ground-based observations and their trends within specific regions. Our findings clearly demonstrate regional trend differences but also consistently higher pre-COVID than post-COVID trends.
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Kenjiro Toyota, Henrik Skov, Jesper Heile Christensen, Alex Lupu, Diane Pendlebury, Junhua Zhang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Roberto Sommariva, Peter Effertz, John W. Halfacre, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Theodore K. Koenig, Katrin Müller, Claus Nordstrøm, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Paul B. Shepson, William R. Simpson, Sverre Solberg, Ralf M. Staebler, David W. Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, and Mika Vestenius
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8355–8405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8355-2025, 2025
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This study showed that the springtime O3 depletion plays a critical role in driving the surface O3 seasonal cycle in the central Arctic. The O3 depletion events, while occurring most notably within the lowest few hundred metres above the Arctic Ocean, can induce a 5–7 % loss in the pan-Arctic tropospheric O3 burden during springtime. The study also found enhancements in O3 and NOy (mostly peroxyacetyl nitrate) concentrations in the Arctic due to northern boreal wildfires, particularly at higher altitudes.
Yue Li, Gang Tang, Eleanor O’Rourke, Samar Minallah, Martim Mas e Braga, Sophie Nowicki, Robin S. Smith, David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Daniele Peano, Gesa Meyer, Birgit Hassler, Jiafu Mao, Yongkang Xue, and Martin Juckes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3207, 2025
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Land and Land Ice Theme Opportunities describe a list that contains 25 variable groups with 716 variables, which are potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land-atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology.
Mara Y. McPartland, Tomas Lovato, Charles D. Koven, Jamie D. Wilson, Briony Turner, Colleen M. Petrik, José Licón-Saláiz, Fang Li, Fanny Lhardy, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Michio Kawamiya, Birgit Hassler, Nathan P. Gillett, Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christopher Danek, Chris M. Brierley, Ana Bastos, and Oliver Andrews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3246, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international consortium of climate modeling groups that produce coordinated experiments in order to evaluate human influence on the climate and test knowledge of Earth systems. This paper describes the data requested for Earth systems research in CMIP7. We detail the request for model output of the carbon cycle, the flows of energy among the atmosphere, land and the oceans, and interactions between these and the global climate.
Roeland Van Malderen, Anne M. Thompson, Debra E. Kollonige, Ryan M. Stauffer, Herman G. J. Smit, Eliane Maillard Barras, Corinne Vigouroux, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Thierry Leblanc, Valérie Thouret, Pawel Wolff, Peter Effertz, David W. Tarasick, Deniz Poyraz, Gérard Ancellet, Marie-Renée De Backer, Stéphanie Evan, Victoria Flood, Matthias M. Frey, James W. Hannigan, José L. Hernandez, Marco Iarlori, Bryan J. Johnson, Nicholas Jones, Rigel Kivi, Emmanuel Mahieu, Glen McConville, Katrin Müller, Tomoo Nagahama, Justus Notholt, Ankie Piters, Natalia Prats, Richard Querel, Dan Smale, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Kimberly Strong, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7187–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7187-2025, 2025
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas and is an air pollutant. The time variability of tropospheric ozone is mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions. In this paper, we study the distribution and time variability of ozone from harmonized ground-based observations from five different measurement techniques. Our findings provide clear standard references for atmospheric models and evolving tropospheric ozone satellite data for the 2000–2022 period.
Forrest M. Hoffman, Birgit Hassler, Ranjini Swaminathan, Jared Lewis, Bouwe Andela, Nathaniel Collier, Dóra Hegedűs, Jiwoo Lee, Charlotte Pascoe, Mika Pflüger, Martina Stockhause, Paul Ullrich, Min Xu, Lisa Bock, Felicity Chun, Bettina K. Gier, Douglas I. Kelley, Axel Lauer, Julien Lenhardt, Manuel Schlund, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Katja Weigel, Ed Blockley, Rebecca Beadling, Romain Beucher, Demiso D. Dugassa, Valerio Lembo, Jianhua Lu, Swen Brands, Jerry Tjiputra, Elizaveta Malinina, Brian Mederios, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jeremy Walton, Philip Kershaw, André L. Marquez, Malcolm J. Roberts, Eleanor O’Rourke, Elisabeth Dingley, Briony Turner, Helene Hewitt, and John P. Dunne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2685, 2025
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As Earth system models become more complex, rapid and comprehensive evaluation through comparison with observational data is necessary. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require fast analysis. This paper describes a new Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) that was developed for the Assessment Fast Track that will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) to inform the community about the performance of models.
Beth Dingley, James A. Anstey, Marta Abalos, Carsten Abraham, Tommi Bergman, Lisa Bock, Sonya Fiddes, Birgit Hassler, Ryan J. Kramer, Fei Luo, Fiona M. O'Connor, Petr Šácha, Isla R. Simpson, Laura J. Wilcox, and Mark D. Zelinka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3189, 2025
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This manuscript defines as a list of variables and scientific opportunities which are requested from the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track to address open atmospheric science questions. The list reflects the output of a large public community engagement effort, coordinated across autumn 2025 through to summer 2025.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4009–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025, 2025
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460, 2025
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Heatwaves are among the deadliest natural hazards, yet their causes and changes over time are not fully understood. We analyzed European heatwaves using a machine learning method that detects atmospheric patterns from these data. Our findings show that recent summer heatwaves differ from historical ones, indicating a shift in atmospheric dynamics consistent with climate change. This approach improves our understanding of the temporal evolution of heatwaves.
Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1517, 2025
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This study explores changes in drought characteristic based on projections by 18 different Earth system models. Their performance is evaluated by comparing historical simulations to observation based reanalysis. The analysis of a standardized drought index under different future scenarios revealed that the harvest area that is projected to experience extreme drought conditions towards the end of this century ranges from 10 % to 40 % depending on the emission scenario.
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeannette D. Wild, Kari Abromitis, Peter Effertz, Koji Miyagawa, Lawrence E. Flynn, Eliane Maillard Barras, Robert Damadeo, Glen McConville, Bryan Johnson, Patrick Cullis, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Gerard Ancellet, Richard Querel, Roeland Van Malderen, and Daniel Zawada
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2895–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2895-2025, 2025
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Observational records show that stratospheric ozone is recovering in accordance with the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Natural ozone variability complicates the detection of small trends. This study optimizes a statistical model fit in ground-station-based observational records by adding parameters that interpret seasonal and long-term changes in atmospheric circulation and airmass mixing, which reduces uncertainties in detecting the stratospheric ozone recovery.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Zhou Zang, Jane Liu, David Tarasick, Omid Moeini, Jianchun Bian, Jinqiang Zhang, Anne M. Thompson, Roeland Van Malderen, Herman G. J. Smit, Ryan M. Stauffer, Bryan J. Johnson, and Debra E. Kollonige
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13889–13912, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13889-2024, 2024
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The Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde dataset for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST) provides a global-scale, long-term ozone climatology that is horizontally and vertically resolved. In this study, we improved, updated and validated TOST from 1970 to 2021. Based on this TOST dataset, we characterized global ozone variations spatially in both the troposphere and stratosphere and temporally by season and decade. We also showed a stagnant lower stratospheric ozone variation since the late 1990s.
Robin Björklund, Corinne Vigouroux, Peter Effertz, Omaira E. García, Alex Geddes, James Hannigan, Koji Miyagawa, Michael Kotkamp, Bavo Langerock, Gerald Nedoluha, Ivan Ortega, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Deniz Poyraz, Richard Querel, John Robinson, Hisako Shiona, Dan Smale, Penny Smale, Roeland Van Malderen, and Martine De Mazière
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6819–6849, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6819-2024, 2024
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Different ground-based ozone measurements from the last 2 decades at Lauder are compared to each other. We want to know why different trends have been observed in the stratosphere. Also, the quality and relevance of tropospheric datasets need to be evaluated. While remaining drifts are still present, our study explains roughly half of the differences in observed trends in previous studies and shows the necessity for continuous review and improvement of the measurements.
Andrew O. Langford, Raul J. Alvarez II, Kenneth C. Aikin, Sunil Baidar, W. Alan Brewer, Steven S. Brown, Matthew M. Coggan, Patrick D. Cullis, Jessica Gilman, Georgios I. Gkatzelis, Detlev Helmig, Bryan J. Johnson, K. Emma Knowland, Rajesh Kumar, Aaron D. Lamplugh, Audra McClure-Begley, Brandi J. McCarty, Ann M. Middlebrook, Gabriele Pfister, Jeff Peischl, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Pamela S. Rickley, Andrew W. Rollins, Scott P. Sandberg, Christoph J. Senff, and Carsten Warneke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1938, 2024
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High ozone (O3) formed by reactions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can harm human health and welfare. High O3 is usually associated with hot summer days, but under certain conditions, high O3 can also form under winter conditions. In this study, we describe a high O3 event that occurred in Colorado during the COVID-19 quarantine that was caused in part by the decrease in traffic, and in part by a shallow inversion created by descent of stratospheric air.
Luis F. Millán, Peter Hoor, Michaela I. Hegglin, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Paul Jeffery, Daniel Kunkel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Hao Ye, Thierry Leblanc, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7927–7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7927-2024, 2024
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In the Observed Composition Trends And Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) activity, we have mapped multiplatform ozone datasets into coordinate systems to systematically evaluate the influence of these coordinates on binned climatological variability. This effort unifies the work of studies that focused on individual coordinate system variability. Our goal was to create the most comprehensive assessment of this topic.
Arno Keppens, Serena Di Pede, Daan Hubert, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Pepijn Veefkind, Maarten Sneep, Johan De Haan, Mark ter Linden, Thierry Leblanc, Steven Compernolle, Tijl Verhoelst, José Granville, Oindrila Nath, Ann Mari Fjæraa, Ian Boyd, Sander Niemeijer, Roeland Van Malderen, Herman G. J. Smit, Valentin Duflot, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Bryan J. Johnson, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, David W. Tarasick, Debra E. Kollonige, Ryan M. Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, Angelika Dehn, and Claus Zehner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3969–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3969-2024, 2024
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The Sentinel-5P satellite operated by the European Space Agency has carried the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) around the Earth since October 2017. This mission also produces atmospheric ozone profile data which are described in detail for May 2018 to April 2023. Independent validation using ground-based reference measurements demonstrates that the operational ozone profile product mostly fully and at least partially complies with all mission requirements.
Kai-Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, Audrey Gaudel, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Peter Effertz, Gary Morris, and Brian C. McDonald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6197–6218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6197-2024, 2024
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A great majority of observational trend studies of free tropospheric ozone use sparsely sampled ozonesonde and aircraft measurements as reference data sets. A ubiquitous assumption is that trends are accurate and reliable so long as long-term records are available. We show that sampling bias due to sparse samples can persistently reduce the trend accuracy, and we highlight the importance of maintaining adequate frequency and continuity of observations.
Ryan M. Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, Debra E. Kollonige, Ninong Komala, Habib Khirzin Al-Ghazali, Dian Yudha Risdianto, Ambun Dindang, Ahmad Fairudz bin Jamaluddin, Mohan Kumar Sammathuria, Norazura Binti Zakaria, Bryan J. Johnson, and Patrick D. Cullis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5221–5234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5221-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5221-2024, 2024
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SHADOZ balloon-borne ozone measurements over equatorial Southeast Asia from 1998–2022 reveal that ozone increases during the early months of the year are linked to reduced convective storm activity, which typically redistributes and cleans the atmosphere of ozone. These findings challenge models to replicate the trends produced by the SHADOZ and meteorological observations and emphasize the importance of studying monthly or seasonal instead of annual changes for understanding ozone trends.
Joseph Michalsky and Glen McConville
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1017–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1017-2024, 2024
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The ozone in the atmosphere is measured by looking at the sun and measuring how diminished the light in the ultraviolet is relative to how bright it is above the Earth's atmosphere. This typically uses spectral instruments that are either costly or no longer manufactured. This paper uses a relatively inexpensive interference filter instrument to perform the same task. Daily ozone measurements with the latter and this filter instrument are compared. Aerosols are calculated as a by-product.
Herman G. J. Smit, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Anne M. Thompson, David W. Tarasick, Ryan M. Stauffer, Bryan J. Johnson, and Debra E. Kollonige
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 73–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-73-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-73-2024, 2024
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This paper revisits fundamentals of ECC ozonesonde measurements to develop and characterize a methodology to correct for the fast and slow time responses using the JOSIE (Jülich Ozone Sonde Intercomparison Experiment) simulation chamber data. Comparing the new corrected ozonesonde profiles to an accurate ozone UV photometer (OPM) as reference allows us to evaluate the time response correction (TRC) method and to determine calibration functions traceable to one reference with 5 % uncertainty.
Davide Putero, Paolo Cristofanelli, Kai-Lan Chang, Gaëlle Dufour, Gregory Beachley, Cédric Couret, Peter Effertz, Daniel A. Jaffe, Dagmar Kubistin, Jason Lynch, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Melissa Puchalski, Timothy Sharac, Barkley C. Sive, Martin Steinbacher, Carlos Torres, and Owen R. Cooper
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15693–15709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15693-2023, 2023
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We investigated the impact of societal restriction measures during the COVID-19 pandemic on surface ozone at 41 high-elevation sites worldwide. Negative ozone anomalies were observed for spring and summer 2020 for all of the regions considered. In 2021, negative anomalies continued for Europe and partially for the eastern US, while western US sites showed positive anomalies due to wildfires. IASI satellite data and the Carbon Monitor supported emission reductions as a cause of the anomalies.
Vitali Fioletov, Xiaoyi Zhao, Ihab Abboud, Michael Brohart, Akira Ogyu, Reno Sit, Sum Chi Lee, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Koji Miyagawa, Bryan J. Johnson, Patrick Cullis, John Booth, Glen McConville, and C. Thomas McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12731–12751, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12731-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12731-2023, 2023
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Stratospheric ozone within the Southern Hemisphere springtime polar vortex has been a subject of intense research since the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. The wintertime ozone in the vortex is less studied. We show that the recent wintertime ozone values over the South Pole were about 12 % below the pre-1980s level; i.e., the decline there was nearly twice as large as that over southern midlatitudes. Thus, wintertime ozone there can be used as an indicator of the ozone layer state.
Luis F. Millán, Gloria L. Manney, Harald Boenisch, Michaela I. Hegglin, Peter Hoor, Daniel Kunkel, Thierry Leblanc, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Kaley Walker, Krzysztof Wargan, and Andreas Zahn
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2957–2988, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2957-2023, 2023
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The determination of atmospheric composition trends in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is still highly uncertain. We present the creation of dynamical diagnostics to map several ozone datasets (ozonesondes, lidars, aircraft, and satellite measurements) in geophysically based coordinate systems. The diagnostics can also be used to analyze other greenhouse gases relevant to surface climate and UTLS chemistry.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Kathy S. Law, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Henrik Skov, Stephen R. Arnold, Joakim Langner, Jakob Boyd Pernov, Garance Bergeron, Ilann Bourgeois, Jesper H. Christensen, Rong-You Chien, Makoto Deushi, Xinyi Dong, Peter Effertz, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Greg Huey, Ulas Im, Rigel Kivi, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeff Peischl, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tom Ryerson, Ragnhild Skeie, Sverre Solberg, Manu A. Thomas, Chelsea Thompson, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven T. Turnock, Knut von Salzen, and David W. Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 637–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, 2023
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This study summarizes recent research on ozone in the Arctic, a sensitive and rapidly warming region. We find that the seasonal cycles of near-surface atmospheric ozone are variable depending on whether they are near the coast, inland, or at high altitude. Several global model simulations were evaluated, and we found that because models lack some of the ozone chemistry that is important for the coastal Arctic locations, they do not accurately simulate ozone there.
Manuel Schlund, Birgit Hassler, Axel Lauer, Bouwe Andela, Patrick Jöckel, Rémi Kazeroni, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Brian Medeiros, Valeriu Predoi, Stéphane Sénési, Jérôme Servonnat, Tobias Stacke, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Klaus Zimmermann, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 315–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023, 2023
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models. Originally, ESMValTool was designed to process reformatted output provided by large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we describe a new extension of ESMValTool that allows for reading and processing native climate model output, i.e., data that have not been reformatted before.
Eliane Maillard Barras, Alexander Haefele, René Stübi, Achille Jouberton, Herbert Schill, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Koji Miyagawa, Martin Stanek, and Lucien Froidevaux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14283–14302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14283-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14283-2022, 2022
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Intercomparisons of three Dobson and three Brewer spectrophotometers at Arosa/Davos, Switzerland, are used for the homogenization of the longest Umkehr ozone profiles time series worldwide. Dynamic linear modeling (DLM) reveals a significant positive trend after 2004 in the upper stratosphere, a persistent negative trend between 25 and 30 km in the middle stratosphere, and a negative trend at 20 km in the lower stratosphere, with different levels of significance depending on the dataset.
Kostas Eleftheratos, John Kapsomenakis, Ilias Fountoulakis, Christos S. Zerefos, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Germar Bernhard, Dimitra Kouklaki, Kleareti Tourpali, Scott Stierle, J. Ben Liley, Colette Brogniez, Frédérique Auriol, Henri Diémoz, Stana Simic, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Kaisa Lakkala, and Kostas Douvis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12827–12855, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022, 2022
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We present the future evolution of DNA-active ultraviolet (UV) radiation in view of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and decreasing ozone depleting substances (ODSs). It is shown that DNA-active UV radiation might increase after 2050 between 50° N–50° S due to GHG-induced reductions in clouds and ozone, something that is likely not to happen at high latitudes, where DNA-active UV radiation will continue its downward trend mainly due to stratospheric ozone recovery from the reduction in ODSs.
Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Niramson Azouz, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Daan Hubert, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Peter Effertz, Gérard Ancellet, Doug A. Degenstein, Daniel Zawada, Lucien Froidevaux, Stacey Frith, Jeannette Wild, Sean Davis, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Kleareti Tourpali, Robert Damadeo, Eliane Maillard Barras, René Stübi, Corinne Vigouroux, Carlo Arosio, Gerald Nedoluha, Ian Boyd, Roeland Van Malderen, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11657–11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, 2022
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An updated evaluation up to 2020 of stratospheric ozone profile long-term trends at extrapolar latitudes based on satellite and ground-based records is presented. Ozone increase in the upper stratosphere is confirmed, with significant trends at most latitudes. In this altitude region, a very good agreement is found with trends derived from chemistry–climate model simulations. Observed and modelled trends diverge in the lower stratosphere, but the differences are non-significant.
Subin Yoon, Alexander Kotsakis, Sergio L. Alvarez, Mark G. Spychala, Elizabeth Klovenski, Paul Walter, Gary Morris, Ernesto Corrales, Alfredo Alan, Jorge A. Diaz, and James H. Flynn
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4373–4384, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4373-2022, 2022
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SO2 is adverse to human health and the environment. A single SO2 sonde was developed to provide direct SO2 measurement with a greater vertical extent, a lower limit of detection, and less uncertainty relative to the previous dual-sonde method. The single sonde was tested in the field near volcanoes and anthropogenic sources where the sonde measured SO2 ranging from 0.5 to 940 ppb. This lighter-weight payload can be a great candidate to attach to small drones and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Noah Bernays, Daniel A. Jaffe, Irina Petropavlovskikh, and Peter Effertz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3189–3192, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3189-2022, 2022
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Ozone is an important pollutant that impacts millions of people worldwide. It is therefore important to ensure accurate measurements. A recent surge in wildfire activity in the USA has resulted in significant enhancements in ozone concentration. However given the nature of wildfire smoke, there are questions about our ability to accurately measure ozone. In this comment, we discuss possible biases in the UV measurements of ozone in the presence of smoke.
Shima Bahramvash Shams, Von P. Walden, James W. Hannigan, William J. Randel, Irina V. Petropavlovskikh, Amy H. Butler, and Alvaro de la Cámara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5435–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022, 2022
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Large-scale atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on ozone in the Arctic, and certain anomalous dynamical events, such as sudden stratospheric warmings, cause dramatic alterations of the large-scale circulation. A reanalysis model is evaluated and then used to investigate the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings on mid-atmospheric ozone. Results show that the position of the cold jet stream over the Arctic before these events influences the variability of ozone.
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Koji Miyagawa, Audra McClure-Beegle, Bryan Johnson, Jeannette Wild, Susan Strahan, Krzysztof Wargan, Richard Querel, Lawrence Flynn, Eric Beach, Gerard Ancellet, and Sophie Godin-Beekmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1849–1870, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1849-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1849-2022, 2022
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The Montreal Protocol and its amendments assure the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. To monitor ozone recovery, multiple satellites and ground-based observational platforms collect ozone data. The changes in instruments can influence the continuation of the ozone data. We discuss a method to remove instrumental artifacts from ozone records to improve the internal consistency among multiple observational records.
Andrew O. Langford, Christoph J. Senff, Raul J. Alvarez II, Ken C. Aikin, Sunil Baidar, Timothy A. Bonin, W. Alan Brewer, Jerome Brioude, Steven S. Brown, Joel D. Burley, Dani J. Caputi, Stephen A. Conley, Patrick D. Cullis, Zachary C. J. Decker, Stéphanie Evan, Guillaume Kirgis, Meiyun Lin, Mariusz Pagowski, Jeff Peischl, Irina Petropavlovskikh, R. Bradley Pierce, Thomas B. Ryerson, Scott P. Sandberg, Chance W. Sterling, Ann M. Weickmann, and Li Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1707–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1707-2022, 2022
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The Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS) combined lidar, aircraft, and in situ measurements with global models to investigate the contributions of stratospheric intrusions, regional and Asian pollution, and wildfires to background ozone in the southwestern US during May and June 2017 and demonstrated that these processes contributed to background ozone levels that exceeded 70 % of the US National Ambient Air Quality Standard during the 6-week campaign.
Daan Hubert, Klaus-Peter Heue, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Tijl Verhoelst, Marc Allaart, Steven Compernolle, Patrick D. Cullis, Angelika Dehn, Christian Félix, Bryan J. Johnson, Arno Keppens, Debra E. Kollonige, Christophe Lerot, Diego Loyola, Matakite Maata, Sukarni Mitro, Maznorizan Mohamad, Ankie Piters, Fabian Romahn, Henry B. Selkirk, Francisco R. da Silva, Ryan M. Stauffer, Anne M. Thompson, J. Pepijn Veefkind, Holger Vömel, Jacquelyn C. Witte, and Claus Zehner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7405–7433, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7405-2021, 2021
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We assess the first 2 years of TROPOMI tropical tropospheric ozone column data. Comparisons to reference measurements by ozonesonde and satellite sensors show that TROPOMI bias (−0.1 to +2.3 DU) and precision (1.5 to 2.5 DU) meet mission requirements. Potential causes of bias and its spatio-temporal structure are discussed, as well as ways to identify sampling errors. Our analysis of known geophysical patterns demonstrates the improved performance of TROPOMI with respect to its predecessors.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
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We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Cited articles
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Short summary
In 1986, soon after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, NOAA began year-round ozonesonde observations at South Pole Station to measure vertical profiles of ozone and temperature from the surface to 35 km. Balloon-borne ozonesondes launched at this unique site allow for tracking all phases of the yearly springtime ozone hole beginning in late winter and after sunrise, when rapid ozone depletion begins over the South Pole throughout the month of September.
In 1986, soon after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, NOAA began year-round ozonesonde...
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