Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8827–8838, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8827–8838, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020

Research article 27 Jul 2020

Research article | 27 Jul 2020

Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States

Yang Li et al.

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Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C. A., Balch, J. K., and Bradley, B. A.: Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 045005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045005, 2016. 
Abatzoglou, J. T., and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, 2016. 
Aerts, R.: The advantages of being evergreen, Trends Ecol. Evol., 10, 402–407, 1995. 
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. 
Aitken, S. N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. A., Wang, T., and Curtis-McLane, S.: Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations, Evol. Appl., 1, 95–111, 2008. 
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Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests and increased lightning fire activity in northern US states, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Our findings suggest a large climate penalty on ecosystem, air quality, visibility, and human health in a region valued for its national forests and parks. The fine-scale smoke PM predictions provided in this study should prove useful to human health and environmental assessments.
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