Articles | Volume 20, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States
John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Loretta J. Mickley
John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Pengfei Liu
John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Jed O. Kaplan
Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Related authors
Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Thomas Lauvaux, Joshua S. Benmergui, Jonathan E. Franklin, Christopher Chan Miller, Jonas S. Wilzewski, Sébastien Roche, Eamon Conway, Amir H. Souri, Kang Sun, Bingkun Luo, Jacob Hawthrone, Jenna Samra, Bruce C. Daube, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Yang Li, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Jeff S. Rutherford, Evan D. Sherwin, Adam Brandt, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5771–5785, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that MethaneAIR, a precursor to the MethaneSAT satellite, demonstrates accurate point source quantification during controlled release experiments and regional observations in 2021 and 2022. Results from our two independent quantification methods suggest the accuracy of our sensor and algorithms is better than 25 % for sources emitting 200 kg h−1 or more. Insights from these measurements help establish the capabilities of MethaneSAT and MethaneAIR.
Christopher Chan Miller, Sebastien Roche, Jonas S. Wilzewski, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Amir H. Souri, Eamon Conway, Bingkun Luo, Jenna Samra, Jacob Hawthorne, Kang Sun, Carly Staebell, Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Joshua S. Benmergui, Jonathan E. Franklin, Bruce C. Daube, Yang Li, Joshua L. Laughner, Bianca C. Baier, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, and Steven C. Wofsy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1962, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
MethaneSAT is an upcoming satellite mission that aims to monitor methane emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry globally. Here we present observations from the first flight campaign of MethaneAIR, a MethaneSAT-like instrument mounted to an aircraft. MethaneAIR can map methane with high precision and accuracy over a typical sized oil and gas basin (~200 km2) in a single flight. It demonstrates the capability of the upcoming satellite to routinely track global O&G emissions.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
Yang Li and Mark G. Flanner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16005–16018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16005-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16005-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Light-absorbing impurities enhance snowmelt by boosting the absorption of solar energy. It is therefore important for coupled aerosol–climate and ice sheet models to include this effect, and yet most do not. We conduct several thousand simulations and develop a kernel and linear equations relating melt runoff on the Greenland Ice Sheet to the timing and amount of black carbon within precipitation and dry deposition, which can be used to extend the utility of state-of-the-art aerosol models.
Amy Christiansen, Loretta J. Mickley, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4569–4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we provide an additional constraint on emissions and trends of nitrogen oxides using nitrate wet deposition (NWD) fluxes over the United States and Europe from 1980–2020. We find that NWD measurements constrain total NOx emissions well. We also find evidence of NOx emission overestimates in both domains, but especially over Europe, where NOx emissions are overestimated by a factor of 2. Reducing NOx emissions over Europe improves model representation of ozone at the surface.
Xu Feng, Loretta J. Mickley, Michelle L. Bell, Tianjia Liu, Jenny A. Fisher, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2985–3007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During severe wildfire seasons, smoke can have a significant impact on air quality in Australia. Our study demonstrates that characterization of the smoke plume injection fractions greatly affects estimates of surface smoke PM2.5. Using the plume behavior predicted by the machine learning method leads to the best model agreement with observed surface PM2.5 in key cities across Australia, with smoke PM2.5 accounting for 5 %–52 % of total PM2.5 on average during fire seasons from 2009 to 2020.
Meghna Soni, Rolf Sander, Lokesh K. Sahu, Domenico Taraborrelli, Pengfei Liu, Ankit Patel, Imran A. Girach, Andrea Pozzer, Sachin S. Gunthe, and Narendra Ojha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15165–15180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15165-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the implementation of comprehensive multiphase chlorine chemistry in the box model CAABA/MECCA. Simulations for contrasting urban environments of Asia and Europe highlight the significant impacts of chlorine on atmospheric oxidation capacity and composition. Chemical processes governing the production and loss of chlorine-containing species has been discussed. The updated chemical mechanism will be useful to interpret field measurements and for future air quality studies.
Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Thomas Lauvaux, Joshua S. Benmergui, Jonathan E. Franklin, Christopher Chan Miller, Jonas S. Wilzewski, Sébastien Roche, Eamon Conway, Amir H. Souri, Kang Sun, Bingkun Luo, Jacob Hawthrone, Jenna Samra, Bruce C. Daube, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Yang Li, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Jeff S. Rutherford, Evan D. Sherwin, Adam Brandt, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5771–5785, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that MethaneAIR, a precursor to the MethaneSAT satellite, demonstrates accurate point source quantification during controlled release experiments and regional observations in 2021 and 2022. Results from our two independent quantification methods suggest the accuracy of our sensor and algorithms is better than 25 % for sources emitting 200 kg h−1 or more. Insights from these measurements help establish the capabilities of MethaneSAT and MethaneAIR.
Christopher Chan Miller, Sebastien Roche, Jonas S. Wilzewski, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Amir H. Souri, Eamon Conway, Bingkun Luo, Jenna Samra, Jacob Hawthorne, Kang Sun, Carly Staebell, Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Joshua S. Benmergui, Jonathan E. Franklin, Bruce C. Daube, Yang Li, Joshua L. Laughner, Bianca C. Baier, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, and Steven C. Wofsy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1962, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
MethaneSAT is an upcoming satellite mission that aims to monitor methane emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry globally. Here we present observations from the first flight campaign of MethaneAIR, a MethaneSAT-like instrument mounted to an aircraft. MethaneAIR can map methane with high precision and accuracy over a typical sized oil and gas basin (~200 km2) in a single flight. It demonstrates the capability of the upcoming satellite to routinely track global O&G emissions.
Ruijun Dang, Daniel J. Jacob, Viral Shah, Sebastian D. Eastham, Thibaud M. Fritz, Loretta J. Mickley, Tianjia Liu, Yi Wang, and Jun Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6271–6284, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6271-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6271-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use the GEOS-Chem model to better understand the magnitude and trend in free tropospheric NO2 over the contiguous US. Model underestimate of background NO2 is largely corrected by considering aerosol nitrate photolysis. Increase in aircraft emissions affects satellite retrievals by altering the NO2 shape factor, and this effect is expected to increase in future. We show the importance of properly accounting for the free tropospheric background in interpreting NO2 observations from space.
Jed O. Kaplan and Katie Hong-Kiu Lau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5665–5670, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5665-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global lightning strokes are recorded continuously by a network of ground-based stations. We consolidated these point observations into a map form and provide these as electronic datasets for research purposes. Here we extend our dataset to include lightning observations from 2021.
Amy Christiansen, Loretta J. Mickley, Junhua Liu, Luke D. Oman, and Lu Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14751–14782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding tropospheric ozone trends is crucial for accurate predictions of future air quality and climate, but drivers of trends are not well understood. We analyze global tropospheric ozone trends since 1980 using ozonesonde and surface measurements, and we evaluate two models for their ability to reproduce trends. We find observational evidence of increasing tropospheric ozone, but models underestimate these increases. This hinders our ability to estimate ozone radiative forcing.
Basil Andrew Stansfield Davis, Marc Fasel, Jed O. Kaplan, Emmanuele Russo, and Ariane Burke
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-59, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
During the last Ice Age 21 k BP, Northern Europe was covered in ice and steppe, and forests were restricted to sheltered regions to the south. However, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remains unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climate, but still suggests models over estimate forest cover especially in the west.
Shixian Zhai, Daniel J. Jacob, Jared F. Brewer, Ke Li, Jonathan M. Moch, Jhoon Kim, Seoyoung Lee, Hyunkwang Lim, Hyun Chul Lee, Su Keun Kuk, Rokjin J. Park, Jaein I. Jeong, Xuan Wang, Pengfei Liu, Gan Luo, Fangqun Yu, Jun Meng, Randall V. Martin, Katherine R. Travis, Johnathan W. Hair, Bruce E. Anderson, Jack E. Dibb, Jose L. Jimenez, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Benjamin A. Nault, Jung-Hun Woo, Younha Kim, Qiang Zhang, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16775–16791, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16775-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Geostationary satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has tremendous potential for monitoring surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Our study explored the physical relationship between AOD and PM2.5 by integrating data from surface networks, aircraft, and satellites with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We quantitatively showed that accurate simulation of aerosol size distributions, boundary layer depths, relative humidity, coarse particles, and diurnal variations in PM2.5 are essential.
Lee T. Murray, Eric M. Leibensperger, Clara Orbe, Loretta J. Mickley, and Melissa Sulprizio
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5789–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical-transport models are tools used to study air pollution and inform public policy. However, they are limited by the availability of archived meteorology. Here, we describe how the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model may now be driven by meteorology archived from a state-of-the-art general circulation model for past and future climates, allowing it to be used to explore the impact of climate change on air pollution and atmospheric composition.
Jed O. Kaplan and Katie Hong-Kiu Lau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3219–3237, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning is an important atmospheric phenomenon and natural hazard, but few long-term data are freely available on lightning stroke location, timing, and power. Here, we present a new, open-access dataset of lightning strokes covering 2010–2020, based on a network of low-frequency radio detectors. The dataset is comprised of GIS maps and is intended for researchers, government, industry, and anyone for whom knowing when and where lightning is likely to strike is useful information.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Bingqing Zhang, Huizhong Shen, Pengfei Liu, Hongyu Guo, Yongtao Hu, Yilin Chen, Shaodong Xie, Ziyan Xi, T. Nash Skipper, and Armistead G. Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8341–8356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8341-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8341-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extended ground-level measurements are coupled with model simulations to comprehensively compare the aerosol acidity in China and the United States. Aerosols in China are significantly less acidic than those in the United States, with pH values 1–2 units higher. Higher aerosol mass concentrations and the abundance of ammonia and ammonium in China, compared to the United States, are leading causes of the pH difference between these two countries.
Shaojie Song, Tao Ma, Yuzhong Zhang, Lu Shen, Pengfei Liu, Ke Li, Shixian Zhai, Haotian Zheng, Meng Gao, Jonathan M. Moch, Fengkui Duan, Kebin He, and Michael B. McElroy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 457–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-457-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the atmospheric chemical processes of an important sulfur-containing organic aerosol species, which is produced by the reaction between sulfur dioxide and formaldehyde. We can predict its distribution on a global scale. We find it is particularly rich in East Asia. This aerosol species is more abundant in the colder season partly because of weaker sunlight.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Rachel F. Silvern, Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta J. Mickley, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Katherine R. Travis, Eloise A. Marais, Ronald C. Cohen, Joshua L. Laughner, Sungyeon Choi, Joanna Joiner, and Lok N. Lamsal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8863–8878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8863-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The US EPA reports a steady decrease in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from fuel combustion over the 2005–2017 period, while satellite observations show a leveling off after 2009, suggesting emission reductions and related air quality gains have halted. We show the sustained decrease in NOx emissions is in fact consistent with observed trends in surface NO2 and ozone concentrations and that the flattening of the satellite trend reflects a growing influence from the non-anthropogenic background.
Lu Shen, Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta J. Mickley, Yuxuan Wang, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17489–17496, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17489-2018, 2018
Yang Li and Mark G. Flanner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16005–16018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16005-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16005-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Light-absorbing impurities enhance snowmelt by boosting the absorption of solar energy. It is therefore important for coupled aerosol–climate and ice sheet models to include this effect, and yet most do not. We conduct several thousand simulations and develop a kernel and linear equations relating melt runoff on the Greenland Ice Sheet to the timing and amount of black carbon within precipitation and dry deposition, which can be used to extend the utility of state-of-the-art aerosol models.
Danny M. Leung, Amos P. K. Tai, Loretta J. Mickley, Jonathan M. Moch, Aaron van Donkelaar, Lu Shen, and Randall V. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6733–6748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how large-scale weather systems control fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in China. We show that winter monsoons, onshore winds and frontal rains can drive daily PM2.5 variability in different regions of China. We further project future PM2.5 concentration change by 2050s due to climate change, and verify that climate change has little benefit on future PM2.5 in Beijing, implying cutting down emissions is necessary to mitigate pollutions in megacities of China.
Emeline Chaste, Martin P. Girardin, Jed O. Kaplan, Jeanne Portier, Yves Bergeron, and Christelle Hély
Biogeosciences, 15, 1273–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A vegetation model was used to reconstruct fire activity from 1901 to 2012 in relation to changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation in eastern Canada's boreal forest. The model correctly simulated the history of fire activity. The results showed that fire activity is ignition limited but is also greatly affected by both climate and vegetation. This research aims to develop a vegetation model that could be used to predict the future impacts of climate changes on fire activity.
Jingqiu Mao, Annmarie Carlton, Ronald C. Cohen, William H. Brune, Steven S. Brown, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jose L. Jimenez, Havala O. T. Pye, Nga Lee Ng, Lu Xu, V. Faye McNeill, Kostas Tsigaridis, Brian C. McDonald, Carsten Warneke, Alex Guenther, Matthew J. Alvarado, Joost de Gouw, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, Rohit Mathur, Christopher G. Nolte, Robert W. Portmann, Nadine Unger, Mika Tosca, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2615–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing, and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models.
Daniel H. Cusworth, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, and Michael J. Iacono
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13559–13572, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13559-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Since 1990, light-scattering pollution known as aerosols have declined as a result of tightening US air quality regulations. Our study finds that US surface solar radiation has increased simultaneously. We establish a link between aerosols and radiation through physical and statistical models. We find the strongest relationship between aerosols, radiation, and climate at a site in the Midwest. Our work underscores the importance of regional pollution on climate in the US and abroad.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Philipp S. Sommer and Jed O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present GWGEN, a computer program for converting monthly climate data into estimates of daily weather, using statistical methods. The GWGEN weather generator program was developed using a global database of more than 5 million observations of daily weather, and it simulates daily values of minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models.
Mijung Song, Pengfei Liu, Scot T. Martin, and Allan K. Bertram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11261–11271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11261-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11261-2017, 2017
Lu Shen, Loretta J. Mickley, and Lee T. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new method to characterize the influence of atmospheric circulation on surface PM2.5 concentrations. Applying our statistical model to climate projections, we find a strong influence of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 air quality in the United States. We find that current atmospheric chemistry models may underestimate the strong positive sensitivity of PM2.5 to temperature in the eastern United States in summer, and so may underestimate PM2.5 changes in a warmer climate.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Tomás Sherwen, Mat J. Evans, Lucy J. Carpenter, Johan A. Schmidt, and Loretta J. Mickley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1557–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1557-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1557-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We model pre-industrial to present day changes using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with halogens (Cl, Br, I). The model better captures pre-industrial O3 observations with halogens included. Halogens buffer the tropospheric forcing of O3 (RFTO3) from pre-industrial to present day, reducing RFTO3 by 0.087 Wm−2. This reduction is greater than that from halogens on stratospheric O3 (−0.05 Wm−2). This suggests that models that do not include halogens will overestimate RFTO3by ~ 25%.
Lei Zhu, Daniel J. Jacob, Patrick S. Kim, Jenny A. Fisher, Karen Yu, Katherine R. Travis, Loretta J. Mickley, Robert M. Yantosca, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Isabelle De Smedt, Gonzalo González Abad, Kelly Chance, Can Li, Richard Ferrare, Alan Fried, Johnathan W. Hair, Thomas F. Hanisco, Dirk Richter, Amy Jo Scarino, James Walega, Petter Weibring, and Glenn M. Wolfe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13477–13490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13477-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
HCHO column data are widely used as a proxy for VOCs emissions, but validation of the data has been extremely limited. We use accurate aircraft observations to validate and intercompare 6 HCHO retrievals with GEOS-Chem as the intercomparison platform. Retrievals are interconsistent in spatial variability over the SE US and in daily variability, but are biased low by 20–51 %. Our work supports the use of HCHO column as a quantitative proxy for isoprene emission after correction of the low bias.
Mijung Song, Pengfei F. Liu, Sarah J. Hanna, Rahul A. Zaveri, Katie Potter, Yuan You, Scot T. Martin, and Allan K. Bertram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8817–8830, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8817-2016, 2016
Lindsay Renbaum-Wolff, Mijung Song, Claudia Marcolli, Yue Zhang, Pengfei F. Liu, James W. Grayson, Franz M. Geiger, Scot T. Martin, and Allan K. Bertram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7969–7979, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7969-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7969-2016, 2016
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Zhen Zhang, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jed O. Kaplan, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 13, 1387–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates improvements and uncertainties associated with estimating global inundated area and wetland CH4 emissions using TOPMODEL. Different topographic information and catchment aggregation schemes are evaluated against seasonal and permanently inundated wetland observations. Reducing uncertainty in prognostic wetland dynamics modeling must take into account forcing data as well as topographic scaling schemes.
L. Shen, L. J. Mickley, and A. P. K. Tai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10925–10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have examined the effect of polar jet and Bermuda High on ozone air quality in the eastern United States. In the Midwest and northeast, the poleward shift of jet wind leads to reduced polar jet frequency, resulting in increased ozone there. In the southeast, the influence of Bermuda High on ozone variability depends on the location of its west edge. Westward movement increases the ozone only when the JJA Bermuda High west edge is located west of 85.4°W.
X. Yue, L. J. Mickley, J. A. Logan, R. C. Hudman, M. V. Martin, and R. M. Yantosca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10033–10055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan and Canadian ecoregions by the mid-century. The most robust change is the increase of 150-390% in area burned over Alaska and western Canada. The models also predict an increase of 45-90% in the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, but a decrease of up to 50% in northern Canada. We further quantify how the changes in wildfire emissions may affect ozone concentrations in North America.
M. J. McGrath, S. Luyssaert, P. Meyfroidt, J. O. Kaplan, M. Bürgi, Y. Chen, K. Erb, U. Gimmi, D. McInerney, K. Naudts, J. Otto, F. Pasztor, J. Ryder, M.-J. Schelhaas, and A. Valade
Biogeosciences, 12, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Studying century-scale ecological processes and their legacy effects requires taking forest management into account. In this study we produce spatially and temporally explicit maps of European forest management from 1600 to 2010. The most important changes between 1600 and 2010 are an increase of 593 000km2 in conifers at the expense of deciduous forest, a 612 000km2 decrease in unmanaged forest, a 152 000km2 decrease in coppice management and a 818 000km2 increase in high stand management.
P. Achakulwisut, L. J. Mickley, L. T. Murray, A. P. K. Tai, J. O. Kaplan, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7977–7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere’s oxidative capacity determines the lifetime of many trace gases important to climate, chemistry, and human health. Yet uncertainties remain about its past variations, its controlling factors, and the radiative forcing of short-lived species it influences. To reduce these uncertainties, we must better quantify the natural emissions and chemical reaction mechanisms of organic compounds in the atmosphere, which play a role in governing the oxidative capacity.
Y. Zhang, M. S. Sanchez, C. Douet, Y. Wang, A. P. Bateman, Z. Gong, M. Kuwata, L. Renbaum-Wolff, B. B. Sato, P. F. Liu, A. K. Bertram, F. M. Geiger, and S. T. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7819–7829, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7819-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7819-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The present work estimates the viscosity of submicron organic particles while they are still suspended as an aerosol without further post-processing techniques that can possibly alter the properties of semi-volatile materials. Results imply that atmospheric particles, at least those similar to the ones of this study and for low- to middle-RH regimes, can reach equilibrium or react rather slowly with the surrounding gas phase on time scales even longer than the residence time in the atmosphere.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
M. Song, P. F. Liu, S. J. Hanna, Y. J. Li, S. T. Martin, and A. K. Bertram
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5145–5159, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5145-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5145-2015, 2015
P. F. Liu, N. Abdelmalki, H.-M. Hung, Y. Wang, W. H. Brune, and S. T. Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1435–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1435-2015, 2015
J. C. Tao, C. S. Zhao, N. Ma, and P. F. Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12055–12067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12055-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12055-2014, 2014
A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, P. M. Collins, and J. O. Kaplan
Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, 2014
L. T. Murray, L. J. Mickley, J. O. Kaplan, E. D. Sofen, M. Pfeiffer, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
T. Hoffmann, S. M. Mudd, K. van Oost, G. Verstraeten, G. Erkens, A. Lang, H. Middelkoop, J. Boyle, J. O. Kaplan, J. Willenbring, and R. Aalto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 1, 45–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, 2013
M. Scherstjanoi, J. O. Kaplan, E. Thürig, and H. Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1517–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, 2013
V. Beck, C. Gerbig, T. Koch, M. M. Bela, K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, J. O. Kaplan, C. Prigent, P. Bergamaschi, and M. Heimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7961–7982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, 2013
H. Jiang, H. Liao, H. O. T. Pye, S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, J. H. Seinfeld, and X. Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7937–7960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7937-2013, 2013
M. Pfeiffer, A. Spessa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Modeling the drivers of fine PM pollution over Central Europe: impacts and contributions of emissions from different sources
Reaction of SO3 with H2SO4 and its implications for aerosol particle formation in the gas phase and at the air–water interface
Weakened aerosol–radiation interaction exacerbating ozone pollution in eastern China since China's clean air actions
Uncertainties from biomass burning aerosols in air quality models obscure public health impacts in Southeast Asia
Oxidative potential apportionment of atmospheric PM1: a new approach combining high-sensitive online analysers for chemical composition and offline OP measurement technique
Aqueous-phase chemistry of glyoxal with multifunctional reduced nitrogen compounds: a potential missing route for secondary brown carbon
An updated modeling framework to simulate Los Angeles air quality – Part 1: Model development, evaluation, and source apportionment
Frequent haze events associated with transport and stagnation over the corridor between the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta
Evaluation of WRF-Chem-simulated meteorology and aerosols over northern India during the severe pollution episode of 2016
How well are aerosol–cloud interactions represented in climate models? – Part 1: Understanding the sulfate aerosol production from the 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption
pH regulates the formation of organosulfates and inorganic sulfate from organic peroxide reaction with dissolved SO2 in aquatic media
Technical note: Accurate, reliable, and high-resolution air quality predictions by improving the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service using a novel statistical post-processing method
Contribution of intermediate-volatility organic compounds from on-road transport to secondary organic aerosol levels in Europe
Secondary Organic Aerosols Derived from Intermediate Volatility n-Alkanes Adopt Low Viscous Phase State
Development of an integrated model framework for multi-air-pollutant exposure assessments in high-density cities
Observation-Constrained Kinetic Modelling of Isoprene SOA Formation in the Atmosphere
CAMx–UNIPAR simulation of secondary organic aerosol mass formed from multiphase reactions of hydrocarbons under the Central Valley urban atmospheres of California
Impact of urbanization on fine particulate matter concentrations over central Europe
Measurement report: Assessing the impacts of emission uncertainty on aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing from biomass burning in peninsular Southeast Asia
Significant impact of urban-tree biogenic emissions on air quality estimated by a bottom-up inventory and chemistry-transport modeling
The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics
Dynamics-based estimates of decline trend with fine temporal variations in China's PM2.5 emissions
Modeling atmospheric brown carbon in the GISS ModelE Earth system model
Dual roles of inorganic aqueous phase on SOA growth from benzene and phenol
Effects of simulated secondary organic aerosol water on PM1 levels and composition over the US
Reactive organic carbon air emissions from mobile sources in the United States
Development and evaluation of processes affecting simulation of diel fine particulate matter variation in the GEOS-Chem model
Substantially positive contributions of new particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei under low supersaturation in China based on numerical model improvements
Evolution of atmospheric age of particles and its implications for the formation of a severe haze event in eastern China
A multimodel evaluation of the potential impact of shipping on particle species in the Mediterranean Sea
Investigating the contribution of grown new particles to cloud condensation nuclei with largely varying pre-existing particles – Part 2: Modeling chemical drivers and 3-D NPF occurrence
How does tropospheric VOC chemistry affect climate? An investigation of preindustrial control simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2
Anthropogenic amplification of biogenic secondary organic aerosol production
A dynamic parameterization of sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation and its application in three-dimensional modeling
Modeling dust mineralogical composition: sensitivity to soil mineralogy atlases and their expected climate impacts
Assessment of the impacts of cloud chemistry on surface SO2 and sulfate levels in typical regions of China
Impact of Landes forest fires on air quality in France during the 2022 summer
Global nitrogen and sulfur deposition mapping using a measurement–model fusion approach
Comprehensive simulations of new particle formation events in Beijing with a cluster dynamics–multicomponent sectional model
Implications of differences between recent anthropogenic aerosol emission inventories for diagnosed AOD and radiative forcing from 1990 to 2019
Unbalanced emission reductions of different species and sectors in China during COVID-19 lockdown derived by multi-species surface observation assimilation
Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator
Modelling wintertime sea-spray aerosols under Arctic haze conditions
Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6
Linking gas, particulate, and toxic endpoints to air emissions in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM)
Contribution of regional aerosol nucleation to low-level CCN in an Amazonian deep convective environment: results from a regionally nested global model
Coarse particulate matter air quality in East Asia: implications for fine particulate nitrate
Foreign emissions exacerbate PM2.5 pollution in China through nitrate chemistry
Analysis of new particle formation events and comparisons to simulations of particle number concentrations based on GEOS-Chem–advanced particle microphysics in Beijing, China
Simulation of organic aerosol, its precursors, and related oxidants in the Landes pine forest in southwestern France: accounting for domain-specific land use and physical conditions
Lukáš Bartík, Peter Huszár, Jan Karlický, Ondřej Vlček, and Kryštof Eben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4347–4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The presented study deals with the attribution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations to anthropogenic emissions over Central Europe using regional-scale models. It calculates the present-day contributions of different emissions sectors to concentrations of PM2.5 and its secondary components. Moreover, the study investigates the effect of chemical nonlinearities by using multiple source attribution methods and secondary organic aerosol calculation methods.
Rui Wang, Yang Cheng, Shasha Chen, Rongrong Li, Yue Hu, Xiaokai Guo, Tianlei Zhang, Fengmin Song, and Hao Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4029–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4029-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4029-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used quantum chemical calculations, Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics simulations, and the ACDC kinetic model to characterize SO3–H2SO4 interaction in the gas phase and at the air–water interface and to study the effect of H2S2O7 on H2SO4–NH3-based clusters. The work expands our understanding of new pathways for the loss of SO3 in acidic polluted areas and helps reveal some missing sources of NPF in metropolitan industrial regions and understand the atmospheric organic–sulfur cycle better.
Hao Yang, Lei Chen, Hong Liao, Jia Zhu, Wenjie Wang, and Xin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4001–4015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study quantifies the response of aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) to anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2017, with the main focus on the contribution to changed O3 concentrations over eastern China both in summer and winter using the WRF-Chem model. The weakened ARI due to decreased anthropogenic emission aggravates the summer (winter) O3 pollution by +0.81 ppb (+0.63 ppb), averaged over eastern China.
Margaret R. Marvin, Paul I. Palmer, Fei Yao, Mohd Talib Latif, and Md Firoz Khan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3699–3715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric chemistry model to investigate aerosols emitted from fire activity across Southeast Asia. We find that the limited nature of measurements in this region leads to large uncertainties that significantly hinder the model representation of these aerosols and their impacts on air quality. As a result, the number of monthly attributable deaths is underestimated by as many as 4500, particularly in March at the peak of the mainland burning season.
Julie Camman, Benjamin Chazeau, Nicolas Marchand, Amandine Durand, Grégory Gille, Ludovic Lanzi, Jean-Luc Jaffrezo, Henri Wortham, and Gaëlle Uzu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3257–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fine particle (PM1) pollution is a major health issue in the city of Marseille, which is subject to numerous pollution sources. Sampling carried out during the summer enabled a fine characterization of the PM1 sources and their oxidative potential, a promising new metric as a proxy for health impact. PM1 came mainly from combustion sources, secondary ammonium sulfate, and organic nitrate, while the oxidative potential of PM1 came from these sources and from resuspended dust in the atmosphere.
Yuemeng Ji, Zhang Shi, Wenjian Li, Jiaxin Wang, Qiuju Shi, Yixin Li, Lei Gao, Ruize Ma, Weijun Lu, Lulu Xu, Yanpeng Gao, Guiying Li, and Taicheng An
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3079–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The formation mechanisms for secondary brown carbon (SBrC) contributed by multifunctional reduced nitrogen compounds (RNCs) remain unclear. Hence, from combined laboratory experiments and quantum chemical calculations, we investigated the heterogeneous reactions of glyoxal (GL) with multifunctional RNCs, which are driven by four-step indirect nucleophilic addition reactions. Our results show a possible missing source for SBrC formation on urban, regional, and global scales.
Elyse A. Pennington, Yuan Wang, Benjamin C. Schulze, Karl M. Seltzer, Jiani Yang, Bin Zhao, Zhe Jiang, Hongru Shi, Melissa Venecek, Daniel Chau, Benjamin N. Murphy, Christopher M. Kenseth, Ryan X. Ward, Havala O. T. Pye, and John H. Seinfeld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2345–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To assess the air quality in Los Angeles (LA), we improved the CMAQ model by using dynamic traffic emissions and new secondary organic aerosol schemes to represent volatile chemical products. Source apportionment demonstrates that the urban areas of the LA Basin and vicinity are NOx-saturated, with the largest sensitivity of O3 to changes in volatile organic compounds in the urban core. The improvement and remaining issues shed light on the future direction of the model development.
Feifan Yan, Hang Su, Yafang Cheng, Rujin Huang, Hong Liao, Ting Yang, Yuanyuan Zhu, Shaoqing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Wenbin Kou, Xinran Zeng, Shengnan Xiang, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Yang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2365–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
PM2.5 pollution is a major air quality issue deteriorating human health, and previous studies mostly focus on regions like the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. However, the characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations between these two regions are studied less often. Focusing on the transport corridor region, we identify an interesting seesaw transport phenomenon with stagnant weather conditions, conducive to PM2.5 accumulation over this region, resulting in large health effects.
Prerita Agarwal, David S. Stevenson, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2239–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollution levels across northern India are amongst some of the worst in the world, with episodic and hazardous haze events. Here, the ability of the WRF-Chem model to predict air quality over northern India is assessed against several datasets. Whilst surface wind speed and particle pollution peaks are over- and underestimated, respectively, meteorology and aerosol trends are adequately captured, and we conclude it is suitable for investigating severe particle pollution events.
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Ying Chen, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Daniel G. Partridge, Paul Kim, Duncan Watson-Parris, Toshihiko Takemura, David Neubauer, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Skeie, Anton Laakso, and James Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1939–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption caused a huge aerosol plume in an otherwise unpolluted region, providing a chance to study how aerosol alters cloud properties. This two-part study uses observations and models to quantify this relationship’s impact on the Earth’s energy budget. Part 1 suggests the models capture the observed spatial and chemical evolution of the plume, yet no model plume is exact. Understanding these differences is key for Part 2, where changes to cloud properties are explored.
Lin Du, Xiaofan Lv, Makroni Lily, Kun Li, and Narcisse Tsona Tchinda
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the pH effect on the reaction of dissolved SO2 with selected organic peroxides. Results show that the formation of organic and/or inorganic sulfate from these peroxides strongly depends on their electronic structures, and these processes are likely to alter the chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in different ways. The rate constants of these reactions exhibit positive pH and temperature dependencies within pH 1–10 and 240–340 K ranges.
Angelo Riccio and Elena Chianese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Starting from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), we provided a novel ensemble statistical post-processing approach to improve their air quality predictions. Our approach is able to provide reliable short-term forecasts of pollutant concentrations, which is a key challenge in supporting national authorities in their tasks related to EU Air Quality Directives, such as planning and reporting the state of air quality to the citizens.
Stella E. I. Manavi and Spyros N. Pandis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 891–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Organic vapors of intermediate volatility have often been neglected as sources of atmospheric organic aerosol. In this work we use a new approach for their simulation and quantify the contribution of these compounds emitted by transportation sources (gasoline and diesel vehicles) to particulate matter over Europe. The estimated secondary organic aerosol levels are on average 60 % higher than predicted by previous approaches. However, these estimates are probably lower limits.
Tommaso Galeazzo, Bernard Aumont, Marie Camredon, Richard Valorso, Yong B. Lim, Paul J. Ziemann, and Manabu Shiraiwa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-51, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SOA derived from n-alkanes is a major component of anthropogenic particulate matter. We provide a comprehensive analysis of n-alkane SOA by explicit chemistry modeling, machine learning, and laboratory experiments, showing that n-alkane SOA adopt low viscous semisolid or liquid states. Our results indicate little kinetic limitations of mass accommodation in SOA formation, supporting the application of equilibrium partitioning for simulating n-alkane SOA in large-scale atmospheric models.
Zhiyuan Li, Kin-Fai Ho, Harry Fung Lee, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 649–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-649-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-649-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed an integrated model framework for accurate multi-air-pollutant exposure assessments in high-density and high-rise cities. Following the proposed integrated model framework, we established multi-air-pollutant exposure models for four major PM10 chemical species as well as four criteria air pollutants with R2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.93. The proposed framework serves as an important tool for combined exposure assessment in epidemiological studies.
Chuanyang Shen, Xiaoyan Yang, Joel Thornton, John Shilling, Chenyang Bi, Gabriel Isaacman-VanWertz, and Haofei Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-97, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, a multiphase condensed isoprene oxidation mechanism was developed to simulate isoprene SOA formation from chamber and field studies. Our results show that the measured isoprene SOA mass can be reasonably reproduced using the new mechanism. The simulation results indicate that multifunctional low-volatility products contribute significantly to total isoprene SOA. Our findings emphasize that the pathways to produce these low-volatility species should be considered in models.
Yujin Jo, Myoseon Jang, Sanghee Han, Azad Madhu, Bonyoung Koo, Yiqin Jia, Zechen Yu, Soontae Kim, and Jinsoo Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 487–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-487-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CAMx–UNIPAR model simulated the SOA budget formed via multiphase reactions of hydrocarbons and the impact of emissions and climate on SOA characteristics under California’s urban environments during winter 2018. SOA growth was dominated by daytime oxidation of long-chain alkanes and nighttime terpene oxidation with O3 and NO−3 radicals. The spatial distributions of anthropogenic SOA were affected by the northwesterly wind, whereas those of biogenic SOA were insensitive to wind directions.
Peter Huszar, Alvaro Patricio Prieto Perez, Lukáš Bartík, Jan Karlický, and Anahi Villalba-Pradas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 397–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Urbanization transforms rural land into artificial land, while due to human activities, it also introduces a great quantity of emissions. We quantify the impact of urbanization on the final particulate matter pollutant levels by looking not only at these emissions, but also at the way urban land cover influences meteorological conditions, how the removal of pollutants changes due to urban land cover, and how biogenic emissions from vegetation change due to less vegetation in urban areas.
Yinbao Jin, Yiming Liu, Xiao Lu, Xiaoyang Chen, Ao Shen, Haofan Wang, Yinping Cui, Yifei Xu, Siting Li, Jian Liu, Ming Zhang, Yingying Ma, and Qi Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 367–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to address these issues by evaluating eight independent biomass burning (BB) emission inventories (GFED, FINN1.5, FINN2.5 MOS, FINN2.5 MOSVIS, GFAS, FEER, QFED, and IS4FIRES) using the WRF-Chem model and analyzing their impact on aerosol optical properties (AOPs) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) during wildfire events in peninsular Southeast Asia (PSEA) that occurred in March 2019.
Alice Maison, Lya Lugon, Soo-Jin Park, Alexia Baudic, Christopher Cantrell, Florian Couvidat, Barbara D'Anna, Claudia Di Biagio, Aline Gratien, Valérie Gros, Carmen Kalalian, Julien Kammer, Vincent Michoud, Jean-Eudes Petit, Marwa Shahin, Leila Simon, Myrto Valari, Jérémy Vigneron, Andrée Tuzet, and Karine Sartelet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2786, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the development of a bottom-up inventory of urban-tree biogenic emissions. Emissions are computed for each tree based on their location and characteristics and are integrated in the regional air-quality model WRF-CHIMERE. The impact of these biogenic emissions on air quality is quantified for June–July 2022. Over Paris city, urban trees increase the concentrations of particulate organic matter by 4.6 %, of PM2.5 by 0.6 % and of ozone by 1.0 % on average over the two months.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Zhen Peng, Lili Lei, Zhe-Min Tan, Meigen Zhang, Aijun Ding, and Xingxia Kou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14505–14520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Annual PM2.5 emissions in China consistently decreased by about 3% to 5% from 2017 to 2020 with spatial variations and seasonal dependencies. High-temporal-resolution and dynamics-based PM2.5 emission estimates provide quantitative diurnal variations for each season. Significant reductions in PM2.5 emissions in the North China Plain and northeast of China in 2020 were caused by COVID-19.
Maegan A. DeLessio, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Jacek Chowdhary, and Gregory L. Schuster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2472, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first explicit representation of brown carbon aerosols in the GISS ModelE Earth system model (ESM). Model sensitivity to a range of brown carbon parameters, as well as model performance compared to AERONET and MODIS retrievals of total aerosol properties, was assessed. General recommendations for incorporating brown carbon into ESMs are also included.
Jiwon Choi, Myoseon Jang, and Spencer Blau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2461, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent phenoxy radical (PPR) effectively forms via a heterogeneous reaction of phenol and phenol-related products in the presence of wet-inorganic aerosol. These PPR can catalytically consume ozone during a NOx cycle and negatively influence SOA formation. SOA formation from phenol or benzene is simulated using the UNIPAR model which predicted SOA formation via multiphase reactions of hydrocarbons and compared with chamber data obtained under varying NOx levels, humidity, and seed types.
Stylianos Kakavas, Spyros N. Pandis, and Athanasios Nenes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13555–13564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water uptake from organic species in aerosol can affect the partitioning of semi-volatile inorganic compounds but are not considered in global and chemical transport models. We address this with a version of the PM-CAMx model that considers such organic water effects and use it to carry out 1-year aerosol simulations over the continental US. We show that such organic water impacts can increase dry PM1 levels by up to 2 μg m-3 when RH levels and PM1 concentrations are high.
Benjamin N. Murphy, Darrell Sonntag, Karl M. Seltzer, Havala O. T. Pye, Christine Allen, Evan Murray, Claudia Toro, Drew R. Gentner, Cheng Huang, Shantanu Jathar, Li Li, Andrew A. May, and Allen L. Robinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13469–13483, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13469-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13469-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We update methods for calculating organic particle and vapor emissions from mobile sources in the USA. Conventionally, particulate matter (PM) and volatile organic carbon (VOC) are speciated without consideration of primary semivolatile emissions. Our methods integrate state-of-the-science speciation profiles and correct for common artifacts when sampling emissions in a laboratory. We quantify impacts of the emission updates on ambient pollution with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model.
Yanshun Li, Randall V. Martin, Chi Li, Brian L. Boys, Aaron van Donkelaar, Jun Meng, and Jeffrey R. Pierce
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12525–12543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed and evaluated processes affecting within-day (diel) variability in PM2.5 concentrations in a chemical transport model over the contiguous US. Diel variability in PM2.5 for the contiguous US is driven by early-morning accumulation into a shallow mixed layer, decreases from mid-morning through afternoon with mixed-layer growth, increases from mid-afternoon through evening as the mixed-layer collapses, and decreases overnight as emissions decrease.
Chupeng Zhang, Shangfei Hai, Yang Gao, Yuhang Wang, Shaoqing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Bin Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, Jingkun Jiang, Xin Huang, Xiaojing Shen, Junying Sun, Aura Lupascu, Manish Shrivastava, Jerome D. Fast, Wenxuan Cheng, Xiuwen Guo, Ming Chu, Nan Ma, Juan Hong, Qiaoqiao Wang, Xiaohong Yao, and Huiwang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10713–10730, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New particle formation is an important source of atmospheric particles, exerting critical influences on global climate. Numerical models are vital tools to understanding atmospheric particle evolution, which, however, suffer from large biases in simulating particle numbers. Here we improve the model chemical processes governing particle sizes and compositions. The improved model reveals substantial contributions of newly formed particles to climate through effects on cloud condensation nuclei.
Xiaodong Xie, Jianlin Hu, Momei Qin, Song Guo, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Hongli Wang, Shengrong Lou, Cheng Huang, Chong Liu, Hongliang Zhang, Qi Ying, Hong Liao, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10563–10578, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric age of particles reflects how long particles have been formed and suspended in the atmosphere, which is closely associated with the evolution processes of particles. An analysis of the atmospheric age of PM2.5 provides a unique perspective on the evolution processes of different PM2.5 components. The results also shed lights on how to design effective emission control actions under unfavorable meteorological conditions.
Lea Fink, Matthias Karl, Volker Matthias, Sonia Oppo, Richard Kranenburg, Jeroen Kuenen, Sara Jutterström, Jana Moldanova, Elisa Majamäki, and Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10163–10189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10163-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10163-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Sea is a heavily trafficked shipping area, and air quality monitoring stations in numerous cities along the Mediterranean coast have detected high levels of air pollutants originating from shipping emissions. The current study investigates how existing restrictions on shipping-related emissions to the atmosphere ensure compliance with legislation. Focus was laid on fine particles and particle species, which were simulated with five different chemical transport models.
Ming Chu, Xing Wei, Shangfei Hai, Yang Gao, Huiwang Gao, Yujiao Zhu, Biwu Chu, Nan Ma, Juan Hong, Yele Sun, and Xiaohong Yao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-540, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a 20-bin WRF-Chem model to simulate NPF events in the NCP during a three-week observational period in the summer of 2019. The model was able to reproduce the observations during June 29–July 6, which was characterized by a high frequency of NPF occurrence.
Noah A. Stanton and Neil F. Tandon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9191–9216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Chemistry in Earth’s atmosphere has a potentially strong but very uncertain impact on climate. Past attempts to fully model chemistry in Earth’s troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere) typically simplified the representation of Earth’s surface, which in turn limited the ability to simulate changes in climate. The cutting-edge model that we use in this study does not require such simplification, and we use it to examine the climate effects of chemical interactions in the troposphere.
Yiqi Zheng, Larry W. Horowitz, Raymond Menzel, David J. Paynter, Vaishali Naik, Jingyi Li, and Jingqiu Mao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8993–9007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) account for a large fraction of fine aerosol at the global scale. Using long-term measurements and a climate model, we investigate anthropogenic impacts on biogenic SOA at both decadal and centennial timescales. Results show that despite reductions in biogenic precursor emissions, SOA has been strongly amplified by anthropogenic emissions since the preindustrial era and exerts a cooling radiative forcing.
Yuyang Li, Jiewen Shen, Bin Zhao, Runlong Cai, Shuxiao Wang, Yang Gao, Manish Shrivastava, Da Gao, Jun Zheng, Markku Kulmala, and Jingkun Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8789–8804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We set up a new parameterization for 1.4 nm particle formation rates from sulfuric acid–dimethylamine (SA–DMA) nucleation, fully including the effects of coagulation scavenging and cluster stability. Incorporating the new parameterization into 3-D chemical transport models, we achieved better consistencies between simulation results and observation data. This new parameterization provides new insights into atmospheric nucleation simulations and its effects on atmospheric pollution or health.
María Gonçalves Ageitos, Vincenzo Obiso, Ron L. Miller, Oriol Jorba, Martina Klose, Matt Dawson, Yves Balkanski, Jan Perlwitz, Sara Basart, Enza Di Tomaso, Jerónimo Escribano, Francesca Macchia, Gilbert Montané, Natalie M. Mahowald, Robert O. Green, David R. Thompson, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8623–8657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dust aerosols affect our climate differently depending on their mineral composition. We include dust mineralogy in an atmospheric model considering two existing soil maps, which still have large associated uncertainties. The soil data and the distribution of the minerals in different aerosol sizes are key to our model performance. We find significant regional variations in climate-relevant variables, which supports including mineralogy in our current models and the need for improved soil maps.
Jianyan Lu, Sunling Gong, Jian Zhang, Jianmin Chen, Lei Zhang, and Chunhong Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8021–8037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
WRF/CUACE was used to assess the cloud chemistry contribution in China. Firstly, the CUACE cloud chemistry scheme was found to reproduce well the cloud processing and consumption of H2O2, O3, and SO2, as well as the increase of sulfate. Secondly, during cloud availability in December under a heavy pollution episode, sulfate production increased 60–95 % and SO2 was reduced by over 80 %. This study provides a way to analyze the phenomenon of overestimation of SO2 in many chemical transport models.
Laurent Menut, Arineh Cholakian, Guillaume Siour, Rémy Lapere, Romain Pennel, Sylvain Mailler, and Bertrand Bessagnet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7281–7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7281-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7281-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is about the wildfires occurring in France during the summer 2022. We study the forest fires that took place in the Landes during the summer of 2022. We show the direct impact of these fires on the air quality, especially downstream of the smoke plume towards the Paris region. We quantify the impact of these fires on the pollutants peak concentrations and the possible exceedance of thresholds.
Hannah J. Rubin, Joshua S. Fu, Frank Dentener, Rui Li, Kan Huang, and Hongbo Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7091–7102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7091-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7091-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We update the 2010 global deposition budget for nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) with new regional wet deposition measurements, improving the ensemble results of 11 global chemistry transport models from HTAP II. Our study demonstrates that a global measurement–model fusion approach can substantially improve N and S deposition model estimates at a regional scale and represents a step forward toward the WMO goal of global fusion products for accurately mapping harmful air pollution.
Chenxi Li, Yuyang Li, Xiaoxiao Li, Runlong Cai, Yaxin Fan, Xiaohui Qiao, Rujing Yin, Chao Yan, Yishuo Guo, Yongchun Liu, Jun Zheng, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Markku Kulmala, Huayun Xiao, and Jingkun Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6879–6896, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6879-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New particle formation and growth in polluted environments are not fully understood despite intensive research. We applied a cluster dynamics–multicomponent sectional model to simulate the new particle formation events observed in Beijing, China. The simulation approximately captures how the events evolve. Further diagnosis shows that the oxygenated organic molecules may have been under-detected, and modulating their abundance leads to significantly improved simulation–observation agreement.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Zbigniew Klimont
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6647–6662, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that differences, in magnitude and trend, between recent global anthropogenic emission inventories have a notable influence on simulated regional abundances of anthropogenic aerosol over the 1990–2019 period. This, in turn, affects estimates of radiative forcing. Our findings form a basis for comparing existing and upcoming studies on anthropogenic aerosols using different emission inventories.
Lei Kong, Xiao Tang, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Meng Gao, Huangjian Wu, Miaomiao Lu, Qian Wu, Shuyuan Huang, Wenxuan Sui, Jie Li, Xiaole Pan, Lin Wu, Hajime Akimoto, and Gregory R. Carmichael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6217–6240, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A multi-air-pollutant inversion system has been developed in this study to estimate emission changes in China during COVID-19 lockdown. The results demonstrate that the lockdown is largely a nationwide road traffic control measure with NOx emissions decreasing by ~40 %. Emissions of other species only decreased by ~10 % due to smaller effects of lockdown on other sectors. Assessment results further indicate that the lockdown only had limited effects on the control of PM2.5 and O3 in China.
Ernesto Reyes-Villegas, Douglas Lowe, Jill S. Johnson, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Eoghan Darbyshire, Michael Flynn, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Ying Chen, Oliver Wild, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Alex Archibald, Siddhartha Singh, Manish Shrivastava, Rahul A. Zaveri, Vikas Singh, Gufran Beig, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Gordon McFiggans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5763–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5763-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Organic aerosols (OAs), their sources and their processes remain poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem, can be a useful tool to describe primary OA (POA) production and aging. However, the main disadvantage is its complexity. We used a Gaussian process simulator to reproduce model results and to estimate the sources of model uncertainty. We do this by comparing the outputs with OA observations made at Delhi, India, in 2018.
Eleftherios Ioannidis, Kathy S. Law, Jean-Christophe Raut, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Rachel M. Kirpes, Lucia M. Upchurch, Thomas Tuch, Alfred Wiedensohler, Andreas Massling, Henrik Skov, Patricia K. Quinn, and Kerri A. Pratt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5641–5678, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5641-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5641-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Remote and local anthropogenic emissions contribute to wintertime Arctic haze, with enhanced aerosol concentrations, but natural sources, which also contribute, are less well studied. Here, modelled wintertime sea-spray aerosols are improved in WRF-Chem over the wider Arctic by including updated wind speed and temperature-dependent treatments. As a result, anthropogenic nitrate aerosols are also improved. Open leads are confirmed to be the main source of sea-spray aerosols over northern Alaska.
Wenfu Tang, Simone Tilmes, David M. Lawrence, Fang Li, Cenlin He, Louisa K. Emmons, Rebecca R. Buchholz, and Lili Xia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5467–5486, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Globally, total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st century under scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the two geoengineering scenarios. Geoengineering reduces fire by decreasing surface temperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water. However, geoengineering also yields reductions in precipitation, which offset some of the fire reduction.
Havala O. T. Pye, Bryan K. Place, Benjamin N. Murphy, Karl M. Seltzer, Emma L. D'Ambro, Christine Allen, Ivan R. Piletic, Sara Farrell, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Matthew M. Coggon, Emily Saunders, Lu Xu, Golam Sarwar, William T. Hutzell, Kristen M. Foley, George Pouliot, Jesse Bash, and William R. Stockwell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5043–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5043-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5043-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical mechanisms describe how emissions from vehicles, vegetation, and other sources are chemically transformed in the atmosphere to secondary products including criteria and hazardous air pollutants. The Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism integrates gas-phase radical chemistry with pathways to fine-particle mass. New species were implemented, resulting in a bottom-up representation of organic aerosol, which is required for accurate source attribution of pollutants.
Xuemei Wang, Hamish Gordon, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Meinrat O. Andreae, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4431–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4431-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4431-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New particle formation in the upper troposphere is important for the global boundary layer aerosol population, and they can be transported downward in Amazonia. We use a global and a regional model to quantify the number of aerosols that are formed at high altitude and transported downward in a 1000 km region. We find that the majority of the aerosols are from outside the region. This suggests that the 1000 km region is unlikely to be a
closed loopfor aerosol formation, transport and growth.
Shixian Zhai, Daniel J. Jacob, Drew C. Pendergrass, Nadia K. Colombi, Viral Shah, Laura Hyesung Yang, Qiang Zhang, Shuxiao Wang, Hwajin Kim, Yele Sun, Jin-Soo Choi, Jin-Soo Park, Gan Luo, Fangqun Yu, Jung-Hun Woo, Younha Kim, Jack E. Dibb, Taehyoung Lee, Jin-Seok Han, Bruce E. Anderson, Ke Li, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4271–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4271-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4271-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic fugitive dust in East Asia not only causes severe coarse particulate matter air pollution problems, but also affects fine particulate nitrate. Due to emission control efforts, coarse PM decreased steadily. We find that the decrease of coarse PM is a major driver for a lack of decrease of fine particulate nitrate, as it allows more nitric acid to form fine particulate nitrate. The continuing decrease of coarse PM requires more stringent ammonia and nitrogen oxides emission controls.
Jun-Wei Xu, Jintai Lin, Gan Luo, Jamiu Adeniran, and Hao Kong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4149–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Research on the sources of Chinese PM2.5 pollution has focused on the contributions of China’s domestic emissions. However, the impact of foreign anthropogenic emissions has typically been simplified or neglected. Here we find that foreign anthropogenic emissions play an important role in Chinese PM2.5 pollution through chemical interactions between foreign-transported pollutants and China’s local emissions. Thus, foreign emission reductions are essential for improving Chinese air quality.
Kun Wang, Xiaoyan Ma, Rong Tian, and Fangqun Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4091–4104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4091-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4091-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
From 12 March to 6 April 2016 in Beijing, there were 11 typical new particle formation days, 13 non-event days, and 2 undefined days. We first analyzed the favorable background of new particle formation in Beijing and then conducted the simulations using four nucleation schemes based on a global chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem) to understand the nucleation mechanism.
Arineh Cholakian, Matthias Beekmann, Guillaume Siour, Isabelle Coll, Manuela Cirtog, Elena Ormeño, Pierre-Marie Flaud, Emilie Perraudin, and Eric Villenave
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3679–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3679-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3679-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article revolves around the simulation of biogenic secondary organic aerosols in the Landes forest (southwestern France). Several sensitivity cases involving biogenic emission factors, land cover data, anthropogenic emissions, and physical or meteorological parameters were performed and each compared to measurements both in the forest canopy and around the forest. The chemistry behind the formation of these aerosols and their production and transport in the forest canopy is discussed.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C. A., Balch, J. K., and Bradley, B. A.: Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 045005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045005, 2016.
Abatzoglou, J. T., and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on
wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, 2016.
Aerts, R.: The advantages of being evergreen, Trends Ecol. Evol., 10, 402–407, 1995.
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012.
Aitken, S. N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. A., Wang, T., and Curtis-McLane, S.: Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations, Evol. Appl., 1, 95–111, 2008.
Akagi, S. K., Yokelson, R. J., Wiedinmyer, C., Alvarado, M. J., Reid, J. S., Karl, T.,
Crounse, J. D., and Wennberg, P. O.: Emission factors for open and domestic biomass burning for
use in atmospheric models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4039–4072,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4039-2011, 2011.
Altaratz, O., Kucienska, B., Kostinski, A., Raga, G. B., and Koren, I.: Global association of aerosol with flash density of intense lightning, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 114037, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa922b, 2017.
Archibald, S., Roy, D. P., van Wilgen, B. W., and Scholes, R. J.: What limits fire? An
examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 613–630, 2009.
Balch, J. K., Bradley, B. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Nagy, R. C., Fusco, E. J., and Mahood,
A. L.: Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 2946–2951, 2017.
Brey, S. J., Barnes, E. A., Pierce, J. R., Wiedinmyer, C., and Fischer, E. V.:
Environmental conditions, ignition type, and air quality impacts of wildfires in the southeastern
and western United States, Earth's Future, 6, 1442–1456, 2018.
Brovkin, V., Boysen, L., Arora, V., Boisier, J., Cadule, P., Chini, L., Claussen, M.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gayler, V., and Van Den Hurk, B.: Effect of anthropogenic land-use and
land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first
century, J. Climate, 26, 6859–6881, 2013.
Chaste, E., Girardin, M. P., Kaplan, J. O., Portier, J., Bergeron, Y., and Hély,
C.: The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire
model, Biogeosciences, 15, 1273–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, 2018.
Chow, J. C., Watson, J. G., Lowenthal, D. H., Chen, L.-W. A., and Motallebi, N.:
PM2.5 source profiles for black and organic carbon emission inventories, Atmos.
Environ., 45, 5407–5414, 2011.
Flannigan, M. D., Stocks, B. J., and Wotton, B. M.: Climate change and forest fires,
Sci. Total Environ., 262, 221–229, 2000.
Ford, B., Val Martin, M., Zelasky, S., Fischer, E., Anenberg, S., Heald, C., and
Pierce, J.: Future fire impacts on smoke concentrations, visibility, and health in the contiguous
United States, GeoHealth, 2, 229–247, 2018.
Fusco, E. J., Abatzoglou, J. T., Balch, J. K., Finn, J. T., and Bradley, B. A.:
Quantifying the human influence on fire ignition across the western USA, Ecol. Appl., 26,
2390–2401, 2016.
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L.,
Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., and Reichle, R.: The modern-era retrospective
analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, 2017.
Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., and van der Werf, G. R.: Analysis of daily, monthly, and
annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4),
J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci., 118, 317–328, 2013.
Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S., Scott, C., Kaplan, J., Pringle, K., Nieradzik, L., Rap, A., Folberth, G., Spracklen, D., and Carslaw, K.: Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing, Nat. Commun., 9, 3182, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9, 2018.
Jarvis, P., and Leverenz, J.: Productivity of temperate, deciduous and evergreen forests, in: Physiological Plant Ecology IV. Encyclopedia of Plant Physiology (New Series), edited by: Lange, O. L., Nobel, P. S., Osmond, C. B., and Ziegler, H., D. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 12, 233–280, 1983.
Kumar, S., Dirmeyer, P. A., Merwade, V., DelSole, T., Adams, J. M., and Niyogi, D.:
Land use/cover change impacts in CMIP5 climate simulations: A new methodology and 21st century
challenges, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 6337–6353, 2013.
Li, F., Val Martin, M., Andreae, M. O., Arneth, A., Hantson, S., Kaiser, J. W.,
Lasslop, G., Yue, C., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Kluzek, E., Liu, X., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R.,
Ward, D. S., Darmenov, A., Hickler, T., Ichoku, C., Magi, B. I., Sitch, S., van der Werf, G. R.,
Wiedinmyer, C., and Rabin, S. S.: Historical (1700–2012) global multi-model estimates of the fire
emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19,
12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019.
Liu, J. C., Wilson, A., Mickley, L. J., Dominici, F., Ebisu, K., Wang, Y., Sulprizio,
M. P., Peng, R. D., Yue, X., and Son, J.-Y.: Wildfire-specific Fine Particulate Matter and Risk of
Hospital Admissions in Urban and Rural Counties, Epidemiology, 28, 77–85, 2017.
Magi, B. I.: Global Lightning Parameterization from CMIP5 Climate Model Output,
J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 32, 434–452, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-13-00261.1, 2015.
Nadelhoffer, K. J., Emmett, B. A., Gundersen, P., Kjønaas, O. J., Koopmans, C. J., Schleppi, P., Tietema, A., and Wright, R. F.: Nitrogen deposition makes a minor contribution to carbon sequestration in temperate forests, Nature, 398, 145–148, https://doi.org/10.1038/18205, 1999.
Nazarenko, L., Schmidt, G., Miller, R., Tausnev, N., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Russell,
G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., and Bauer, S.: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with
GISS ModelE2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, 244–267, 2015.
Ortega, A. M., Day, D. A., Cubison, M. J., Brune, W. H., Bon, D., de Gouw, J. A., and
Jimenez, J. L.: Secondary organic aerosol formation and primary organic aerosol oxidation from
biomass-burning smoke in a flow reactor during FLAME-3, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11551–11571,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11551-2013, 2013.
Park, R. J., Jacob, D. J., Chin, M., and Martin, R. V.: Sources of carbonaceous aerosols over the United States and implications for natural visibility, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4355, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003190, 2003.
Park, R. J., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., Yantosca, R. M., and Chin, M.: Natural and transboundary pollution influences on sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols in the United States: Implications for policy, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D15204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004473, 2004.
Pechony, O., and Shindell, D. T.: Driving forces of global wildfires over the past
millennium and the forthcoming century, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19167–19170, 2010.
Pfeiffer, M., Spessa, A., and Kaplan, J. O.: A model for global biomass burning in
preindustrial time: LPJ-LMfire (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643–685,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013.
Pierce, J., Val Martin, M., and Heald, C.: Estimating the effects of changing climate
on fires and consequences for US air quality, using a set of global and regional climate
models–Final report to the Joint Fire Science Program, Fort Collins (CO): Joint Fire Science
Program, 2017.
Price, C. and Rind, D.: Possible implications of global climate change on global
lightning distributions and frequencies, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 10823–10831, 1994a.
Price, C. and Rind, D.: The impact of a 2×CO2 climate on
lightning-caused fires, J. Clim., 7, 1484–1494, 1994b.
Rogers, B. M., Neilson, R. P., Drapek, R., Lenihan, J. M., Wells, J. R., Bachelet, D., and Law, B. E.: Impacts of climate change on fire regimes and carbon stocks of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, J. Geophys. Res., 116, G03037, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JG001695, 2011.
Romps, D. M., Seeley, J. T., Vollaro, D., and Molinari, J.: Projected increase in
lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming, Science, 346, 851–854, 2014.
Rupp, D. E., Abatzoglou, J. T., Hegewisch, K. C., and Mote, P. W.: Evaluation of CMIP5
20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118,
10884–10906, 2013.
Shafer, S. L., Bartlein, P. J., Gray, E. M., and Pelltier, R. T.: Projected Future
Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial
Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, PLoS One, 10, e0138759,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138759, 2015.
Sheffield, J., Barrett, A. P., Colle, B., Nelun Fernando, D., Fu, R., Geil, K. L., Hu,
Q., Kinter, J., Kumar, S., and Langenbrunner, B.: North American climate in CMIP5
experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology, J. Climate, 26, 9209–9245, 2013.
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan,
J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem
dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation
model, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003.
Spracklen, D. V., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., Hudman, R. C., Yevich, R., Flannigan, M. D., and Westerling, A. L.: Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D20301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010966, 2009.
Val Martin, M., Honrath, R., Owen, R. C., Pfister, G., Fialho, P., and Barata, F.: Significant enhancements of nitrogen oxides, black carbon, and ozone in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere resulting from North American boreal wildfires, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D23S60, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007530, 2006.
Val Martin, M., Heald, C. L., Lamarque, J.-F., Tilmes, S., Emmons, L. K., and
Schichtel, B. A.: How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality
over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2805–2823,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, 2015.
Westerling, A., and Bryant, B.: Climate change and wildfire in California,
Clim. Change, 87, 231–249, 2008.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., and Swetnam, T. W.: Warming and
earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity, Science, 313, 940–943, 2006.
Westerling, A. L.: Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B-Biol., 371, 20150178, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178, 2016.
Wotton, B., Martell, D., and Logan, K.: Climate change and people-caused forest fire
occurrence in Ontario, Clim. Change, 60, 275–295, 2003.
Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., and Kaplan, J. O.: Ensemble projections of
wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the
mid-21st century, Atmos. Environ., 77, 767–780, 2013.
Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., and Logan, J. A.: Projection of wildfire activity in southern
California in the mid-twenty-first century, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1973–1991, 2014.
Short summary
Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests and increased lightning fire activity in northern US states, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Our findings suggest a large climate penalty on ecosystem, air quality, visibility, and human health in a region valued for its national forests and parks. The fine-scale smoke PM predictions provided in this study should prove useful to human health and environmental assessments.
Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint