Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2027-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2027-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 09 Feb 2026
| 09 Feb 2026
European sulphate aerosols were a key driver of the early twentieth-century intensification of the Asian summer monsoon
Weihao Sun
East China Sea Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, China
Observation and Research Station of Huaniaoshan East China Sea Ocean-Atmosphere Integrated Ecosystem, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, China
Massimo A. Bollasina
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Ioana Colfescu
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, UK
Guoxiong Wu
Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modelling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Yimin Liu
Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modelling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Ioana Colfescu, Edwin Schneider, Massimo Bollasina, Nick Dunstone, Matt Patterson, and Mat Collins
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6517, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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El Niño warms the eastern Pacific, and in doing so erodes the east–west temperature contrast that drives it. Since 1870 that contrast has never reversed, and it sets a seasonal ceiling on El Niño: near +2 °C in spring, +4 °C in late autumn. The events that reached it stopped growing that month, and 145 CMIP6 simulations carry the same limit. The record 2026 event is now approaching it, and we fixed the tests in advance.
Tianhui Zhou, Massimo A. Bollasina, and David S. Stevenson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6397, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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How future Arctic sea-ice loss affects Asian monsoon rainfall is unclear. Using eight climate models, we examined June–September responses to present and future sea-ice conditions. Although sea-ice loss grows through summer, rainfall does not respond more strongly each month: wetter and drier areas shift alongside changes in high-altitude winds. Seasonal averages may hide these contrasts, while natural weather variability may make Arctic influences harder to detect in observations.
Chang Su, Massimo Bollasina, James Weber, and David Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 14439–14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14439-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14439-2026, 2026
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Hot weather can strongly increase surface ozone, a harmful air pollutant, but the reasons differ between urban and rural areas. We studied a large city and a nearby rural region in eastern China using air quality observations and simplified chemistry modelling. We found that heat-driven plant emissions dominate ozone increases in the city, while chemical nitrogen cycling is key in the rural area. Our results help identify heat-resilient air pollution control strategies under climate change.
Xiaocong Wang, Yanjie Liu, and Yimin Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 14471–14485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14471-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-14471-2026, 2026
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This study advances our understanding of the representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) in numerical models. By systematically comparing three convection schemes with different trigger and closure treatments using a single-column model, this study identifies the physical mechanisms responsible for these biases and evaluates the effectiveness of various modifications in improving DCP simulations over China.
Zhixiang Li, Jianhua Lu, and Yimin Liu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1821–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1821-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1821-2026, 2026
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This work studies the dynamical linkages, local wave parameters, and subseasonal predictability of three successive blocking events that are associated with continual extreme events during May–June 2023. These blocks are interconnected via downstream Rossby wave energy dispersion and are dominated by the regime of slowly propagating, large-amplitude planetary-scale waves. Predictability beyond two weeks depends on capturing upstream quasi-stationary troughs and the associated energy dispersion.
Yiran Chen, Jiming Jin, Yimin Liu, Jannik Heusinger, Jesús Carrera, and Zeyu Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 8515–8533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8515-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8515-2026, 2026
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Solar power plants are expanding rapidly worldwide, but their impacts on local climate remain uncertain. In this study, we developed a coupled model that explicitly represents interactions between solar panels, land surface, and the atmosphere. Evaluation against satellite observations showed improved simulation of land surface temperature over solar farms. Simulations show that solar farms can cool the land surface, warm near-surface air, reduce incoming sunlight, and alter rainfall patterns.
Tianhui Zhou and Massimo A. Bollasina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5006, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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We compare two ways of estimating the climate effects of human-produced aerosols in a global climate model. The two methods give broadly similar results for the historical period, but diverge strongly in the future, especially for rainfall and atmospheric circulation over Asia and the Indo-Pacific. The differences arise because aerosols act within a changing climate shaped by rising greenhouse gases, showing that aerosol impacts depend on the background climate state.
Karen E. Helliesen, Bosi Sheng, and Massimo A. Bollasina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3557, 2026
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Midlatitude storms follow preferred pathways known as storm tracks, which shift poleward and change in strength as the climate warms, affecting precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere. Winter changes are less certain due to natural climate fluctuations, while summer changes are more consistent. These findings have implications for regional storm track and rainfall projections and climate adaptation planning.
Tianhui Zhou, Massimo A. Bollasina, and David S. Stevenson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3416, 2026
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Future drought risk will be shaped not only by greenhouse-gas-driven warming, but also by changes in air-pollution-related emissions. We examine how reducing non-methane short-lived climate forcers affects future droughts characteristics. The Sahel, Middle East, and Central Asia face substantially worsened drought conditions. Our findings show that air-pollution mitigation can substantially increase future drought risk and population exposure in vulnerable regions.
Ioana Colfescu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2686, 2026
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Using a large ensemble and a hierarchy of physically constrained machine-learning models, we examine how NAO predictability evolves under SSP3-7.0. The internal SST–NAO teleconnection remains broadly stable, the externally forced SST–NAO relationship changes substantially and reverses sign by late century. The results suggest that future changes in the North Atlantic mean state may alter the basis of seasonal NAO predictability even if the underlying internal teleconnection remains intact.
Bosi Sheng, Massimo A. Bollasina, Alexandre S. Gagnon, Laura J. Wilcox, Thomas P. S. Reynolds, Christopher T. S. Beckett, Haolin Wang, Qingxiang Li, Pierre Nabat, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Joonas Merikanto, Geeta G. Persad, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sharar Ahmadi, Maxwell T. Elling, Knut von Salzen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Naga Oshima, and Tsuyoshi Koshiro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2198, 2026
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Observational records indicate that austral summer rainfall over southern Africa experienced substantial wetting during the late 20th century, followed by pronounced drying over the past two decades. We show that East Asian sulphate aerosol emissions played a key role in shaping these rainfall trends. These findings have important implications for reducing uncertainties in regional rainfall projections and for understanding their links to ecosystem changes.
Yanjie Liu, Xiaocong Wang, Yimin Liu, Shuaiqi Tang, and Hao Miao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6763–6779, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6763-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6763-2026, 2026
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This study investigates how well operational models simulate the diurnal cycle of summer rainfall over China. Comparing three reanalyses shows all capture nocturnal precipitation peak but differ in afternoon rainfall timing: JRA‑55 and MERRA‑2 match observations better, while ERA5 exhibits a 3-hour phase advance. These differences are linked to how large-scale forcing is use in convection parameterization, underscoring the critical role of trigger on cumulus convection.
Mei Chong, Shengkai Wang, Xi Chen, Yuan Liang, Bing Pu, Shian-Jiann Lin, Zhi Liang, and Yimin Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-628, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-628, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The wind speed needed to lift dust from surfaces governs the highest uncertainty in emission models, making it the root cause of dust forecasting errors. We developed iDust-ut, a global threshold dataset by fusing ground observations, satellite data, and reanalysis products. Tests with the iDust model show doubled severe dust storm prediction accuracy. The dataset works directly in any model with built-in adaptation for wind biases, substantially improving operational dust forecasting worldwide.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8805–8820, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, 2025
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Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases the ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to the increase in monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6249–6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, 2024
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We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
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Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Jacob T. Shaw, Amy Foulds, Shona Wilde, Patrick Barker, Freya A. Squires, James Lee, Ruth Purvis, Ralph Burton, Ioana Colfescu, Stephen Mobbs, Samuel Cliff, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Stuart Young, Stefan Schwietzke, and Grant Allen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1491–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1491-2023, 2023
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Flaring is used by the oil and gas sector to dispose of unwanted natural gas or for safety. However, few studies have assessed the efficiency with which the gas is combusted. We sampled flaring emissions from offshore facilities in the North Sea. Average measured flaring efficiencies were ~ 98 % but with a skewed distribution, including many flares of lower efficiency. NOx and ethane emissions were also measured. Inefficient flaring practices could be a target for mitigating carbon emissions.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
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We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
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Short summary
Observational records show that the Asian monsoon underwent substantial changes during the early 20th century, including a wetting trend over South Asia and a southward shift in rainfall over East Asia. We show that increasing European sulphate aerosol emissions played a crucial role in shaping the monsoon rainfall trends. This has important implications for reducing uncertainties in monsoon projections, particularly in light of the diverse future aerosol emission scenarios for the region.
Observational records show that the Asian monsoon underwent substantial changes during the early...
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