Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2027-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2027-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 09 Feb 2026
| 09 Feb 2026
European sulphate aerosols were a key driver of the early twentieth-century intensification of the Asian summer monsoon
Weihao Sun
East China Sea Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, China
Observation and Research Station of Huaniaoshan East China Sea Ocean-Atmosphere Integrated Ecosystem, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, China
Massimo A. Bollasina
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Ioana Colfescu
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, UK
Guoxiong Wu
Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modelling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Yimin Liu
Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modelling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2686, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Using a large ensemble and a hierarchy of physically constrained machine-learning models, we examine how NAO predictability evolves under SSP3-7.0. The internal SST–NAO teleconnection remains broadly stable, the externally forced SST–NAO relationship changes substantially and reverses sign by late century. The results suggest that future changes in the North Atlantic mean state may alter the basis of seasonal NAO predictability even if the underlying internal teleconnection remains intact.
Bosi Sheng, Massimo A. Bollasina, Alexandre S. Gagnon, Laura J. Wilcox, Thomas P. S. Reynolds, Christopher T. S. Beckett, Haolin Wang, Qingxiang Li, Pierre Nabat, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Joonas Merikanto, Geeta G. Persad, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sharar Ahmadi, Maxwell T. Elling, Knut von Salzen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Naga Oshima, and Tsuyoshi Koshiro
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Observational records indicate that austral summer rainfall over southern Africa experienced substantial wetting during the late 20th century, followed by pronounced drying over the past two decades. We show that East Asian sulphate aerosol emissions played a key role in shaping these rainfall trends. These findings have important implications for reducing uncertainties in regional rainfall projections and for understanding their links to ecosystem changes.
Yanjie Liu, Xiaocong Wang, Yimin Liu, Shuaiqi Tang, and Hao Miao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6763–6779, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6763-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6763-2026, 2026
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This study investigates how well operational models simulate the diurnal cycle of summer rainfall over China. Comparing three reanalyses shows all capture nocturnal precipitation peak but differ in afternoon rainfall timing: JRA‑55 and MERRA‑2 match observations better, while ERA5 exhibits a 3-hour phase advance. These differences are linked to how large-scale forcing is use in convection parameterization, underscoring the critical role of trigger on cumulus convection.
Yiran Chen, Jiming Jin, Yimin Liu, Jannik Heusinger, Jesús Carrera, and Zeyu Zhou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1311, 2026
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Solar power plants are expanding rapidly worldwide, but their impacts on local climate remain uncertain. In this study, we developed a coupled model that explicitly represents interactions between solar panels, land surface, and the atmosphere. Simulations show that large solar farms can cool the land surface while warming the air near the ground, reduce incoming shortwave radiation, and shift rainfall toward more extreme events.
Mei Chong, Shengkai Wang, Xi Chen, Yuan Liang, Bing Pu, Shian-Jiann Lin, Zhi Liang, and Yimin Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-628, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-628, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The wind speed needed to lift dust from surfaces governs the highest uncertainty in emission models, making it the root cause of dust forecasting errors. We developed iDust-ut, a global threshold dataset by fusing ground observations, satellite data, and reanalysis products. Tests with the iDust model show doubled severe dust storm prediction accuracy. The dataset works directly in any model with built-in adaptation for wind biases, substantially improving operational dust forecasting worldwide.
Zhixiang Li, Jianhua Lu, and Yimin Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1156, 2026
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This work studies the dynamical linkages, wave parameters, and subseasonal predictability of three successive atmospheric blocking events that are associated with continual extreme events during May–June 2023. We suggest that these interconnected blocking events are dominated by the regime of slowly propagating, large-amplitude planetary-scale waves. The skillful subseasonal predictions depend on capturing upstream quasi-stationary troughs, highlighting sources of subseasonal predictability.
Chang Su, Massimo Bollasina, James Weber, and David Stevenson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-836, 2026
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Hot weather can strongly increase surface ozone, a harmful air pollutant, but the reasons differ between urban and rural areas. We studied a large city and a nearby rural region in eastern China using air quality observations and simplified chemistry modelling. We found that heat-driven plant emissions dominate ozone increases in the city, while chemical nitrogen cycling is key in the rural area. Our results help identify heat-resilient air pollution control strategies under climate change.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8805–8820, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8805-2025, 2025
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Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases the ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to the increase in monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel M. Westervelt, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025
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In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that, while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03 °C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6249–6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, 2024
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We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Zhen Liu, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7227–7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024, 2024
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The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
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Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Jacob T. Shaw, Amy Foulds, Shona Wilde, Patrick Barker, Freya A. Squires, James Lee, Ruth Purvis, Ralph Burton, Ioana Colfescu, Stephen Mobbs, Samuel Cliff, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Stuart Young, Stefan Schwietzke, and Grant Allen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1491–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1491-2023, 2023
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Flaring is used by the oil and gas sector to dispose of unwanted natural gas or for safety. However, few studies have assessed the efficiency with which the gas is combusted. We sampled flaring emissions from offshore facilities in the North Sea. Average measured flaring efficiencies were ~ 98 % but with a skewed distribution, including many flares of lower efficiency. NOx and ethane emissions were also measured. Inefficient flaring practices could be a target for mitigating carbon emissions.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
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We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
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Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Jinxiao Li, Qing Bao, Yimin Liu, Lei Wang, Jing Yang, Guoxiong Wu, Xiaofei Wu, Bian He, Xiaocong Wang, Xiaoqi Zhang, Yaoxian Yang, and Zili Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6113–6133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6113-2021, 2021
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The configuration and simulated performance of tropical cyclones (TCs) in FGOALS-f3-L/H will be introduced firstly. The results indicate that the simulated performance of TC activities is improved globally with the increased horizontal resolution especially in TC counts, seasonal cycle, interannual variabilities and intensity aspects. It is worth establishing a high-resolution coupled dynamic prediction system based on FGOALS-f3-H (~ 25 km) to improve the prediction skill of TCs.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
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Short summary
Observational records show that the Asian monsoon underwent substantial changes during the early 20th century, including a wetting trend over South Asia and a southward shift in rainfall over East Asia. We show that increasing European sulphate aerosol emissions played a crucial role in shaping the monsoon rainfall trends. This has important implications for reducing uncertainties in monsoon projections, particularly in light of the diverse future aerosol emission scenarios for the region.
Observational records show that the Asian monsoon underwent substantial changes during the early...
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