Articles | Volume 26, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15405-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15405-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Characterizing variability and vertical structure of water vapor in the extratropical lower stratosphere
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
William J. Randel
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Jun Zhang
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14375–14392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14375-2023, 2023
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A long-term record of satellite observations is used to study extreme water vapor concentrations in the lower stratosphere, which are important to climate variability and change. We use a deeper layer of stratospheric observations than prior work to more comprehensively identify these events. We show that extreme water vapor concentrations are frequent, especially in the lowest layers of the stratosphere that have not been analyzed previously.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Valentina Aquila, Amy H. Butler, Peter Colarco, Eric Fleming, Freja F. Østerstrøm, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Michelle L. Santee, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, Yunqian Zhu, and Zhihong Zhuo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 11355–11370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11355-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11355-2026, 2026
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The 2022 Hunga eruption injected unprecedented quantities of water vapor into the stratosphere, alongside modest amounts of aerosol precursors. We assess its impacts on stratospheric ozone layer using a multi-model ensemble of chemistry-climate simulations. The results confirm the eruption's role in modulating SH (Southern Hemisphere) mid and high latitudes ozone abundances in the short term, and discuss the different chemical and dynamical processes driving those changes as well as the role of natural variability.
Kimberlee Dubé, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Susann Tegtmeier, Xinyue Wang, Jun Zhang, Eilidh Hlady, Meghan Brehon, Sergey Khaykin, and Douglas Degenstein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4022, 2026
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The Hunga volcanic eruption in January 2022 increased the total stratospheric water vapor (H2O) mass by 10 %. The study uses satellite observations and models to track the transport of the Hunga H2O. We find that there is substantially more H2O in the observations than the model during 2024 and 2025, suggesting that the modelled transport across the lower stratosphere is too fast. We also find evidence that some of the H2O that reaches the lower stratosphere is mixed back into the tropics.
Zhiting Wang, Yijie Zheng, Xinlong Hong, Plummer David, and Jun Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3817, 2026
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Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Yunqian Zhu, Georgiy Stenchikov, Valentina Aquila, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham W. Mann, Yifeng Peng, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Pengfei Yu, Jun Zhang, Wandi Yu, and Zhihong Zhuo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 7677–7704, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7677-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7677-2026, 2026
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On January 15, 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO2. In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models. The models agree that the eruption led to small negative radiative forcing from sulfate aerosols and that the contribution from water vapor was minimal. Therefore, the Hunga eruption cannot explain the exceptional surface warming observed in 2023.
You Yi, William J. Randel, Laura L. Pan, Yi Liu, Shuangxi Fang, Zhaonan Cai, Teresa Campos, and Benjamin Gaubert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2644, 2026
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Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but how it reaches the upper atmosphere is not well known. Using satellite data, we show that the Asian summer monsoon plays a key role in transporting methane from the lower atmosphere to the upper atmosphere, where it affects both Earth's radiation and the amount of water vapor. Our findings reveal that a regional weather system can influence the global distribution of methane, helping scientists better predict future climate change.
Chengyun Yang, Xiang Guo, Tao Li, Xinyue Wang, Jun Zhang, Xin Fang, and Xianghui Xue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 1021–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-1021-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-1021-2026, 2026
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The Indian Ocean strongly influences weather and climate far beyond its region. We found that unusual sea surface warming patterns in the midlatitude Indian Ocean can disrupt winds and temperatures in the middle atmosphere, including the stratosphere and mesosphere, of the Southern Hemisphere. These disturbances alter ozone and air movement and may affect polar climate. Our results highlight the need to include Indian Ocean variability in climate models for better predictions.
Zhihong Zhuo, Xinyue Wang, Yunqian Zhu, Wandi Yu, Ewa M. Bednarz, Eric Fleming, Peter R. Colarco, Shingo Watanabe, David Plummer, Georgiy Stenchikov, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Valentina Aquila, Takashi Sekiya, Mark R. Schoeberl, Simone Tilmes, Jun Zhang, Paul J. Kushner, and Francesco S. R. Pausata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13161–13176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025, 2025
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The 2022 Hunga eruption caused unprecedented stratospheric water injection, triggering unique atmospheric impacts. This study combines observations and model simulations, projecting a stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasting 4–7 years, with significant temperature variations and ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere lasting 7–10 years. These findings offer critical insights into the role of stratospheric water vapor in shaping climate and atmospheric chemistry.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elizabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Peter R. Colarco, Sandip Dhomse, Lola Falletti, Eric Fleming, Ben Johnson, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5487–5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5487-2025, 2025
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To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model–observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goals of this activity: (1) to evaluate the climate model performance and (2) to understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Luke D. Ziemba, Avelino F. Arellano, Mary C. Barth, Ewan C. Crosbie, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Richard Ferrare, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Michael A. Shook, Simone Tilmes, Jian Wang, Qian Xiao, Jun Zhang, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5469–5495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5469-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5469-2025, 2025
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Novel aerosol hygroscopicity analyses of CAMP2Ex (Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment) field campaign data show low aerosol hygroscopicity values in Southeast Asia. Organic carbon from smoke decreases hygroscopicity to levels more like those in continental than in polluted marine regions. Hygroscopicity changes at cloud level demonstrate how surface particles impact clouds in the region, affecting model representation of aerosol and cloud interactions in similar polluted marine regions with high organic carbon emissions.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, William Randel, Sean Davis, Michael Schwartz, Nathaniel Livesey, and Anne Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12925–12941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12925-2024, 2024
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Greenhouse gas emissions that warm the troposphere also result in stratospheric cooling. The cooling rate is difficult to quantify above 35 km due to a deficit of long-term observational data with high vertical resolution in this region. We use satellite observations from several instruments, including a new temperature product from OSIRIS, to show that the upper stratosphere, from 35–60 km, cooled by 0.5 to 1 K per decade over 2005–2021 and by 0.6 K per decade over 1979–2021.
Emily N. Tinney and Cameron R. Homeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14375–14392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14375-2023, 2023
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A long-term record of satellite observations is used to study extreme water vapor concentrations in the lower stratosphere, which are important to climate variability and change. We use a deeper layer of stratospheric observations than prior work to more comprehensively identify these events. We show that extreme water vapor concentrations are frequent, especially in the lowest layers of the stratosphere that have not been analyzed previously.
Yunqian Zhu, Robert W. Portmann, Douglas Kinnison, Owen Brian Toon, Luis Millán, Jun Zhang, Holger Vömel, Simone Tilmes, Charles G. Bardeen, Xinyue Wang, Stephanie Evan, William J. Randel, and Karen H. Rosenlof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13355–13367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13355-2023, 2023
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The 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption injected a large amount of water into the stratosphere. Ozone depletion was observed inside the volcanic plume. Chlorine and water vapor injected by this eruption exceeded the normal range, which made the ozone chemistry during this event occur at a higher temperature than polar ozone depletion. Unlike polar ozone chemistry where chlorine nitrate is more important, hypochlorous acid plays a large role in the in-plume chlorine balance and heterogeneous processes.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, and William Randel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13283–13300, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a technique for understanding the causes of long-term changes in stratospheric composition. By using N2O as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the model used to calculated trends, it is possible to separate the effects of dynamics and chemistry on observed trace gas trends. We find that observed HCl increases are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation, as are O3 decreases above 30 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere.
Kimberlee Dubé, Daniel Zawada, Adam Bourassa, Doug Degenstein, William Randel, David Flittner, Patrick Sheese, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 6163–6180, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6163-2022, 2022
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Satellite observations are important for monitoring changes in atmospheric composition. Here we describe an improved version of the NO2 retrieval for the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System. The resulting NO2 profiles are compared to those from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station. All datasets agree within 20 % throughout the stratosphere.
Shima Bahramvash Shams, Von P. Walden, James W. Hannigan, William J. Randel, Irina V. Petropavlovskikh, Amy H. Butler, and Alvaro de la Cámara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5435–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5435-2022, 2022
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Large-scale atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on ozone in the Arctic, and certain anomalous dynamical events, such as sudden stratospheric warmings, cause dramatic alterations of the large-scale circulation. A reanalysis model is evaluated and then used to investigate the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings on mid-atmospheric ozone. Results show that the position of the cold jet stream over the Arctic before these events influences the variability of ozone.
William J. Randel, Fei Wu, Alison Ming, and Peter Hitchcock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18531–18542, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18531-2021, 2021
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Balloon and satellite observations show strong coupling between large-scale ozone and temperature fields in the tropical lower stratosphere, spanning timescales of days to years. We present a simple interpretation of this behavior based on an idealized model of transport by the tropical stratospheric circulation, and good quantitative agreement with observations demonstrates that this is a useful simplification. The results provide simple understanding of observed atmospheric behavior.
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Short summary
Water vapor in the stratosphere plays an important role in Earth’s climate. The moist lower atmosphere and the drier stratosphere meet at the tropopause, creating a complex transition region. Using satellite observations and computer model simulations, this study examines how water vapor varies with height and over time near this boundary. We find that satellite datasets disagree on long-term changes, but consistently show that this transition layer extends about 2.5 kms into the stratosphere.
Water vapor in the stratosphere plays an important role in Earth’s climate. The moist lower...
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