Articles | Volume 25, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18617-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18617-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Dec 2025
Research article |
| 19 Dec 2025
| 19 Dec 2025
An updated microphysical model for particle activation in contrails: the role of volatile plume particles
Joel Ponsonby
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
Roger Teoh
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
Bernd Kärcher
Institute for Atmospheric Physics, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Weßling, Germany
Marc E. J. Stettler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
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The radiative forcing due to contrails is of the same order of magnitude as aviation CO2 emissions but has a higher uncertainty. Observations are vital to improve our understanding of the contrail lifecycle, improve models, and measure the effect of mitigation action. Here, we use ground-based cameras combined with flight telemetry to track visible contrails and measure their lifetime and width. We evaluate model predictions and demonstrate the capability of this approach.
Joel Ponsonby, Leon King, Benjamin J. Murray, and Marc E. J. Stettler
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Aerosol emissions from aircraft engines contribute to the formation of contrails, which have a climate impact as important as that of aviation’s CO2 emissions. For the first time, we experimentally investigate the freezing behaviour of water droplets formed on jet lubrication oil aerosol. We show that they can activate to form water droplets and discuss their potential impact on contrail formation. Our study has implications for contrails produced by future aircraft engine and fuel technologies.
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Contrails are ice clouds caused by planes. They have a warming effect, so are important to model. In humid (ice supersaturated) regions, ice crystals are stable so can persist. However, weather model data doesn't represent ice supersaturated regions well enough. We demonstrate that ice supersaturation modelling is structured by North Atlantic storm systems. Averaging many systems, we link the bias to underling processes being modelled, and gain insight into how the existing data could be used.
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Contrails (clouds caused by planes) play a large role in the climate warming caused by aviation. Satellites are a good tool to validate modelled impact estimates. Many contrails are either too narrow or too disperse to detect. This work shows that only around half of contrails are observable but that the most climatically important are easier to detect. It supports the use of satellites for contrail observation but highlights the need for observability considerations for specific applications.
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Jade Low, Roger Teoh, Joel Ponsonby, Edward Gryspeerdt, Marc Shapiro, and Marc E. J. Stettler
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The radiative forcing due to contrails is of the same order of magnitude as aviation CO2 emissions but has a higher uncertainty. Observations are vital to improve our understanding of the contrail lifecycle, improve models, and measure the effect of mitigation action. Here, we use ground-based cameras combined with flight telemetry to track visible contrails and measure their lifetime and width. We evaluate model predictions and demonstrate the capability of this approach.
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This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Marc Shapiro, Susanne Rohs, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6071–6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, 2024
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Joel Ponsonby, Leon King, Benjamin J. Murray, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2045–2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2045-2024, 2024
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Aerosol emissions from aircraft engines contribute to the formation of contrails, which have a climate impact as important as that of aviation’s CO2 emissions. For the first time, we experimentally investigate the freezing behaviour of water droplets formed on jet lubrication oil aerosol. We show that they can activate to form water droplets and discuss their potential impact on contrail formation. Our study has implications for contrails produced by future aircraft engine and fuel technologies.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Marc Shapiro, Lynnette Dray, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 725–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-725-2024, 2024
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Blaž Gasparini, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Adam B. Sokol, Bernd Kärcher, Eric Jensen, and Dennis L. Hartmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15413–15444, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15413-2023, 2023
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Tropical cirrus clouds are essential for climate, but our understanding of these clouds is limited due to their dependence on a wide range of small- and large-scale climate processes. In this opinion paper, we review recent advances in the study of tropical cirrus clouds, point out remaining open questions, and suggest ways to resolve them.
Roger Teoh, Ulrich Schumann, Edward Gryspeerdt, Marc Shapiro, Jarlath Molloy, George Koudis, Christiane Voigt, and Marc E. J. Stettler
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Aircraft condensation trails (contrails) contribute to over half of the climate forcing attributable to aviation. This study uses historical air traffic and weather data to simulate contrails in the North Atlantic over 5 years, from 2016 to 2021. We found large intra- and inter-year variability in contrail radiative forcing and observed a 66 % reduction due to COVID-19. Most warming contrails predominantly result from night-time flights in winter.
Bernd Kärcher and Claudia Marcolli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15213–15220, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15213-2021, 2021
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Aerosol–cloud interactions play an important role in climate change. Simulations of the competition between homogeneous solution droplet freezing and heterogeneous ice nucleation can be compromised by the misapplication of ice-active particle fractions frequently derived from laboratory measurements or parametrizations. Our study frames the problem and establishes a solution that is easy to implement in cloud models.
Claudia Marcolli, Fabian Mahrt, and Bernd Kärcher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7791–7843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7791-2021, 2021
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Pores are aerosol particle features that trigger ice nucleation, as they take up water by capillary condensation below water saturation that freezes at low temperatures. The pore ice can then grow into macroscopic ice crystals making up cirrus clouds. Here, we investigate the pores in soot aggregates responsible for pore condensation and freezing (PCF). Moreover, we present a framework to parameterize soot PCF that is able to predict the ice nucleation activity based on soot properties.
Ulrich Schumann, Ian Poll, Roger Teoh, Rainer Koelle, Enrico Spinielli, Jarlath Molloy, George S. Koudis, Robert Baumann, Luca Bugliaro, Marc Stettler, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7429–7450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021, 2021
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The roughly 70 % reduction of air traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic from March–August 2020 compared to 2019 provides a test case for the relationship between air traffic density, contrails, and their radiative forcing of climate change. This paper investigates the induced traffic and contrail changes in a model study. Besides strong weather changes, the model results indicate aviation-induced cirrus and top-of-the-atmosphere irradiance changes, which can be tested with observations.
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Short summary
Aerosol emissions from aircraft engines contribute to the formation of contrails, which have a climate impact comparable to that of aviation’s CO2 emissions. We show that emissions of volatile particulate matter – from fuel sulphur, unburned fuel, and lubrication oil – can increase the number of ice particles formed within a contrail and therefore have an important role in the climate impacts of aviation. This has implications for emission regulation and climate mitigation strategies.
Aerosol emissions from aircraft engines contribute to the formation of contrails, which have a...
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