Articles | Volume 23, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023
Research article
 | 
14 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 14 Jul 2023

Multi-model ensemble projection of the global dust cycle by the end of 21st century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 data

Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Yang Cao, Jun Zhu, Chenguang Tian, Hao Zhou, Yuwen Chen, Yihan Hu, Weijie Fu, and Xu Zhao

Related authors

Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under carbon neutrality scenario: Key meteorological parameters and processes
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3470,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3470, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Global Carbon Budget 2024
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Global high-resolution fire-sourced PM2.5 concentrations for 2000–2023
Yonghang Hu, Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Yang Cao, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Revisiting the high tropospheric ozone over Southern Africa: overestimated biomass burning and underestimated anthropogenic emissions
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2576,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2576, 2024
Short summary
Global assessment of climatic responses to ozone–vegetation interactions
Xinyi Zhou, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, and Xiaofei Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9923–9937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Warming effects of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping
Masaru Yoshioka, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Ben B. B. Booth, Colin P. Morice, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13681–13692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024, 2024
Short summary
The key role of atmospheric absorption in the Asian summer monsoon response to dust emissions in CMIP6 models
Alcide Zhao, Laura J. Wilcox, and Claire L. Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13385–13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Multi-model effective radiative forcing of the 2020 sulfur cap for shipping
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Rachael Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Caroline Jouan, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13361–13370, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Representation of iron aerosol size distributions of anthropogenic emissions is critical in evaluating atmospheric soluble iron input to the ocean
Mingxu Liu, Hitoshi Matsui, Douglas S. Hamilton, Sagar D. Rathod, Kara D. Lamb, and Natalie M. Mahowald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13115–13127, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13115-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Revealing dominant patterns of aerosol regimes in the lower troposphere and their evolution from preindustrial times to the future in global climate model simulations
Jingmin Li, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Christof G. Beer, Ulrike Burkhardt, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12727–12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Aryal, Y. N. and Evans, S.: Global Dust Variability Explained by Drought Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2021JF006073, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006073, 2021. 
Bauer, S. E. and Koch, D.: Impact of heterogeneous sulfate formation at mineral dust surfaces on aerosol loads and radiative forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D17202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd005870, 2005. 
Breuning-Madsen, H. and Awadzi, T. W.: Harmattan dust deposition and particle size in Ghana, Catena, 63, 23–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2005.04.001, 2005. 
Checa-Garcia, R., Balkanski, Y., Albani, S., Bergman, T., Carslaw, K., Cozic, A., Dearden, C., Marticorena, B., Michou, M., van Noije, T., Nabat, P., O'Connor, F. M., Olivié, D., Prospero, J. M., Le Sager, P., Schulz, M., and Scott, C.: Evaluation of natural aerosols in CRESCENDO Earth system models (ESMs): mineral dust, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021. 
Csavina, J., Field, J., Félix, O., Corral-Avitia, A. Y., Sáez, A. E., and Betterton, E. A.: Effect of wind speed and relative humidity on atmospheric dust concentrations in semi-arid climates, Sci. Total Environ., 487, 82–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.138, 2014. 
Download
Short summary
We project the future changes of dust emissions and loading using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 under four scenarios. We find increased dust emissions and loading in North Africa, due to increased drought and strengthened surface wind, and decreased dust loading over Asia, following enhanced precipitation. Such a spatial pattern remains similar, though the regional intensity varies among different scenarios.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint