Articles | Volume 23, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023
Research article
 | 
14 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 14 Jul 2023

Multi-model ensemble projection of the global dust cycle by the end of 21st century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 data

Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Yang Cao, Jun Zhu, Chenguang Tian, Hao Zhou, Yuwen Chen, Yihan Hu, Weijie Fu, and Xu Zhao

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Cited articles

Aryal, Y. N. and Evans, S.: Global Dust Variability Explained by Drought Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2021JF006073, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006073, 2021. 
Bauer, S. E. and Koch, D.: Impact of heterogeneous sulfate formation at mineral dust surfaces on aerosol loads and radiative forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D17202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd005870, 2005. 
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Checa-Garcia, R., Balkanski, Y., Albani, S., Bergman, T., Carslaw, K., Cozic, A., Dearden, C., Marticorena, B., Michou, M., van Noije, T., Nabat, P., O'Connor, F. M., Olivié, D., Prospero, J. M., Le Sager, P., Schulz, M., and Scott, C.: Evaluation of natural aerosols in CRESCENDO Earth system models (ESMs): mineral dust, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021, 2021. 
Csavina, J., Field, J., Félix, O., Corral-Avitia, A. Y., Sáez, A. E., and Betterton, E. A.: Effect of wind speed and relative humidity on atmospheric dust concentrations in semi-arid climates, Sci. Total Environ., 487, 82–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.138, 2014. 
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We project the future changes of dust emissions and loading using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 under four scenarios. We find increased dust emissions and loading in North Africa, due to increased drought and strengthened surface wind, and decreased dust loading over Asia, following enhanced precipitation. Such a spatial pattern remains similar, though the regional intensity varies among different scenarios.
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