Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023
Research article
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01 Feb 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 01 Feb 2023

Projected increases in wildfires may challenge regulatory curtailment of PM2.5 over the eastern US by 2050

Chandan Sarangi, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Yufei Zou, and Yuhang Wang

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on acp-2022-324', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on acp-2022-324', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by chandan sarangi on behalf of the Authors (29 Sep 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 Sep 2022) by Yuan Wang
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (04 Oct 2022)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (11 Oct 2022)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (20 Oct 2022) by Yuan Wang
AR by chandan sarangi on behalf of the Authors (02 Dec 2022)  Author's response   Manuscript 
EF by Mika Burghoff (05 Dec 2022)  Author's tracked changes 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Dec 2022) by Yuan Wang
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (19 Dec 2022)
ED: Publish as is (19 Dec 2022) by Yuan Wang
AR by chandan sarangi on behalf of the Authors (21 Dec 2022)  Manuscript 
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Executive editor
Wildfires enhance surface PM2.5 concentration and thus adversely affect air quality and human health. Based on online-coupled fire-climate-ecosystem model simulations, this paper projects a nearly 2-fold increase in wildfire-induced summer-mean surface PM2.5 by the mid-21st century over North America. The projected enhancement is substantial even in the less-densely forested eastern US - as already manifested in the poor air quality as observed in June 2023 due to Canadian wildfires -, which is attributed to the transport of smoke from North America as well as positive climatic feedback of smoke on PM2.5. Thus, future regulatory controls on PM2.5 in North America, particularly in the eastern US where anthropogenic emissions are falling, should consider the effect of future increases in wildfires.
Short summary
We show that for air quality, the densely populated eastern US may see even larger impacts of wildfires due to long-distance smoke transport and associated positive climatic impacts, partially compensating the improvements from regulations on anthropogenic emissions. This study highlights the tension between natural and anthropogenic contributions and the non-local nature of air pollution that complicate regulatory strategies for improving future regional air quality for human health.
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