Articles | Volume 22, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 18 Jul 2022
| 18 Jul 2022
Estimated regional CO2 flux and uncertainty based on an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi,
Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi,
Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba,
263-8522, Japan
Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki,
Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan
Yousuke Niwa
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies,
Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
Akihiko Ito
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies,
Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
Yosuke Iida
Atmosphere and Ocean Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo,
105-8431, Japan
Daisuke Goto
Division for Advanced Research Promotion, National Institute of Polar Research, National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa,
Tokyo, 190-8518, Japan
Shinji Morimoto
Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki,
Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan
Masayuki Kondo
Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University,
Nagoya, Aichi, 464-8601, Japan
Masayuki Takigawa
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi,
Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Tomohiro Hajima
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi,
Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Michio Watanabe
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi,
Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
now at: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo,
Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8564, Japan
Related authors
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 exchange products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chiranjit Das, Ravi Kumar Kunchala, Prabir K. Patra, Naveen Chandra, Kentaro Ishijima, and Toshinobu Machida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3976, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study compares model CO2 with aircraft and OCO-2 data to identify transport model errors to better policy-related flux estimation. The model align better with aircraft data than satellite data, especially over oceans, but struggles near the surface due to inaccurate CO2 estimates. Over the Amazon and Asian megacities, differences arise from limited measurements and coarse model resolution, highlighting the need for improved monitoring and higher-resolution data to capture emissions better.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Natsuki Watanabe, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomohiro Hajima, Tokuta Yokohata, and Irina Melnikova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost stores a large amount of carbon which will be released as green house gases (GHGs) if thawing occurs during global warming. Using a CMIP6-class Earth System Model, we studied permafrost response to CO2 emission changes. We found permafrost area is reversible but with hysteresis, while permafrost property shows irreversibility. These arise from delay in soil moisture phase change. Because of hysteresis, permafrost thaws even during climate recovery, releasing additional GHGs.
Rubaya Pervin, Scott Robeson, Mallory Barnes, Stephen Sitch, Anthony Walker, Ben Poulter, Fabienne Maignan, Qing Sun, Thomas Colligan, Sönke Zaehle, Kashif Mahmud, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Vladislav Bastrikov, Liam Bogucki, Bertrand Decharme, Christine Delire, Stefanie Falk, Akihiko Ito, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Michael O’Sullivan, Wenping Yuan, and Natasha MacBean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Drylands contribute more than a third of the global vegetation productivity. Yet, these regions are not well represented in global vegetation models. Here, we tested how well 15 global models capture annual changes in dryland vegetation productivity. Models that didn’t have vegetation change over time or fire have lower variability in vegetation productivity. Models need better representation of grass cover types and their coverage. Our work highlights where and how these models need to improve.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Yosuke Niwa, Yasunori Tohjima, Yukio Terao, Tazu Saeki, Akihiko Ito, Taku Umezawa, Kyohei Yamada, Motoki Sasakawa, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hideki Nara, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Hitoshi Mukai, Yukio Yoshida, Shinji Morimoto, Shinya Takatsuji, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yousuke Sawa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Kentaro Ishijima, Ryo Fujita, Daisuke Goto, Xin Lan, Kenneth Schuldt, Michal Heliasz, Tobias Biermann, Lukasz Chmura, Jarsolaw Necki, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Damiano Sferlazzo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6757–6785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6757-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimated regional and sectoral emission contributions to the unprecedented surge of atmospheric methane for 2020–2022. The methane is the second most important greenhouse gas, and its emissions reduction is urgently required to mitigate global warming. Numerical modeling-based estimates with three different sets of atmospheric observations consistently suggested large contributions of biogenic emissions from South Asia and Southeast Asia to the surge of atmospheric methane.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Bibhasvata Dasgupta, Malika Menoud, Carina van der Veen, Ingeborg Levin, Cora Veidt, Heiko Moossen, Sylvia Englund Michel, Peter Sperlich, Shinji Morimoto, Ryo Fujita, Taku Umezawa, Stephen Matthew Platt, Christine Groot Zwaaftink, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Rebecca Fisher, David Lowry, Euan Nisbet, James France, Ceres Woolley Maisch, Gordon Brailsford, Rowena Moss, Daisuke Goto, Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, Nicola Warwick, and Thomas Röckmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2439, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We combined long-term methane mole fraction and isotope measurements from eight laboratories that sample high-latitude stations to compare, offset correct and harmonise the datasets into a hemisphere merged timeseries. Because each laboratory uses slightly different methods, we adjusted the data to make it directly comparable. This allowed us to create a consistent record of atmospheric methane concentration and its isotopes from 1988 to 2023.
Konstantin Gregor, Benjamin F. Meyer, Tillmann Gaida, Victor Justo Vasquez, Karina Bett-Williams, Matthew Forrest, João P. Darela-Filho, Sam Rabin, Marcos Longo, Joe R. Melton, Johan Nord, Peter Anthoni, Vladislav Bastrikov, Thomas Colligan, Christine Delire, Michael C. Dietze, George Hurtt, Akihiko Ito, Lasse T. Keetz, Jürgen Knauer, Johannes Köster, Tzu-Shun Lin, Lei Ma, Marie Minvielle, Stefan Olin, Sebastian Ostberg, Hao Shi, Reiner Schnur, Urs Schönenberger, Qing Sun, Peter E. Thornton, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Geoscientific models are crucial for understanding Earth’s processes. However, they sometimes do not adhere to highest software quality standards, and scientific results are often hard to reproduce due to the complexity of the workflows. Here we gather the expertise of 20 modeling groups and software engineers to define best practices for making geoscientific models maintainable, usable, and reproducible. We conclude with an open-source example serving as a reference for modeling communities.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 exchange products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, Alizée Roobaert, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Hyelim Yoo, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This review article provides an overview of 60 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter A. Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joël Thanwerdas, Hanqin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1873–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesise and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progress in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Tatsuya Miyauchi, Makoto Saito, Hibiki M. Noda, Akihiko Ito, Tomomichi Kato, and Tsuneo Matsunaga
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2329–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an effective indicator for monitoring photosynthetic activity. This paper introduces VISIT-SIF, a biogeochemical model developed based on the Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT) to represent satellite-observed SIF. Our simulations reproduced the global distribution and seasonal variations in observed SIF. VISIT-SIF helps to improve photosynthetic processes through a combination of biogeochemical modeling and observed SIF.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Satoshi Sugawara, Shinji Morimoto, Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Taku Umezawa, Shuji Aoki, Takakiyo Nakazawa, Sakae Toyoda, Kentaro Ishijima, Daisuke Goto, and Hideyuki Honda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1003, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We have been collected stratospheric air samples since 1985 over Japan and analyzed them for δ13CO2. δ13CO2 has decreased through time in the mid-stratosphere with an average rate of change of −0.026 ± 0.001 ‰ yr−1. It has become clear that the oxidation of methane and gravitational separation are important for stratospheric δ13CO2 variations. We newly defined ‘stratospheric potential δ13C’ as a quasi-conservative parameter and demonstrated that it can be used as an air age tracer.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Liting Hu, Adrien Martinez, Marielle Saunois, Rona L. Thompson, Kushal Tibrewal, Wouter Peters, Brendan Byrne, Giacomo Grassi, Paul I. Palmer, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Xuekun Fang, Tengjiao Wang, Hanqin Tian, Katsumasa Tanaka, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Poulter, Clément Albergel, Aki Tsuruta, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Yosuke Niwa, Bo Zheng, Joël Thanwerdas, Dmitry Belikov, Arjo Segers, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1121–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconciles national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories with updated atmospheric inversion results to evaluate discrepancies for three principal GHG fluxes at the national level. Compared to our previous study, new satellite-based CO2 inversions were included and an updated mask of managed lands was used, improving agreement for Brazil and Canada. The proposed methodology can be regularly applied as a check to assess the gap between top-down inversions and bottom-up inventories.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations (CO2 concentration- and emission-driven experiments). We successfully identified problems with regard to the global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues with regard to land use change CO2 emissions that should be solved in the latest generation of models.
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chiranjit Das, Ravi Kumar Kunchala, Prabir K. Patra, Naveen Chandra, Kentaro Ishijima, and Toshinobu Machida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3976, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study compares model CO2 with aircraft and OCO-2 data to identify transport model errors to better policy-related flux estimation. The model align better with aircraft data than satellite data, especially over oceans, but struggles near the surface due to inaccurate CO2 estimates. Over the Amazon and Asian megacities, differences arise from limited measurements and coarse model resolution, highlighting the need for improved monitoring and higher-resolution data to capture emissions better.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Takeshi Kinase, Fumikazu Taketani, Masayuki Takigawa, Chunmao Zhu, Yongwon Kim, Petr Mordovskoi, and Yugo Kanaya
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 143–156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-143-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-143-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Boreal forest wildfires in interior Alaska represent an important black carbon (BC) source for the Arctic and surrounding regions. We observed BC and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations in the Poker Flat Research Range since 2016 and found a positive correlation between the observed BC / ∆CO ratio and fire radiative power (FRP) observed in Alaska and Canada. Our finding suggests the BC emission factor and/or inventory could be potentially improved by using FRP.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Richard Engelen, Sander Houweling, Dominik Brunner, Aki Tsuruta, Bradley Matthews, Prabir K. Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Rona L. Thompson, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wenxin Zhang, Arjo J. Segers, Giuseppe Etiope, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Robbie M. Andrew, David Bastviken, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Giulia Conchedda, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Gütschow, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Ronny Lauerwald, Tiina Markkanen, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Isabelle Pison, Pierre Regnier, Espen Solum, Marko Scholze, Maria Tenkanen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, and John R. Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4325–4350, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of data availability from observation- and inventory-based CH4 emission estimates. It systematically compares them and provides recommendations for robust comparisons, aiming to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC submissions. Anticipating improvements in atmospheric modelling and observations, future developments need to resolve knowledge gaps in both approaches and to better quantify remaining uncertainty.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Astrid Müller, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Takafumi Sugita, Prabir K. Patra, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Toshinobu Machida, Isamu Morino, André Butz, and Kei Shiomi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1297–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1297-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite CH4 observations with high accuracy are needed to understand changes in atmospheric CH4 concentrations. But over oceans, reference data are limited. We combine various ship and aircraft observations with the help of atmospheric chemistry models to derive observation-based column-averaged mixing ratios of CH4 (obs. XCH4). We discuss three different approaches and demonstrate the applicability of the new reference dataset for carbon cycle studies and satellite evaluation.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Mounia Mostefaoui, Philippe Ciais, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Prabir K. Patra, and Yolandi Ernst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 245–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to assess African anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals by using different data products, including inventories and process-based models, and to compare their relative merits with inversion data coming from satellites. We show a good match among the various estimates in terms of overall trends at a regional level and on a decadal basis, but large differences exist even among similar data types, which is a limit to the possibility of verification of country-reported data.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jagat S. H. Bisht, Prabir K. Patra, Masayuki Takigawa, Takashi Sekiya, Yugo Kanaya, Naoko Saitoh, and Kazuyuki Miyazaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1823–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we estimated CH4 fluxes using an advanced 4D-LETKF method. The system was tested and optimized using observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), where a known surface emission distribution is retrieved from synthetic observations. The availability of satellite measurements has increased, and there are still many missions focused on greenhouse gas observations that have not yet launched. The technique being referred to has the potential to improve estimates of CH4 fluxes.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yosuke Niwa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Shohei Murayama, Kentaro Ishijima, and Kazuyuki Saito
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6953–6970, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric O2 / N2 ratio and CO2 concentration over the western North Pacific are presented. We found significant modification of the seasonal APO cycle in the middle troposphere due to the interhemispheric mixing of air. APO driven by the net marine biological activities indicated annual sea–air O2 flux during El Niño. Terrestrial biospheric and oceanic CO2 uptakes during 2012–2019 were estimated to be 1.8 and 2.8 Pg C a−1, respectively.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Makoto Saito, Tomohiro Shiraishi, Ryuichi Hirata, Yosuke Niwa, Kazuyuki Saito, Martin Steinbacher, Doug Worthy, and Tsuneo Matsunaga
Biogeosciences, 19, 2059–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study tested combinations of two sources of AGB data and two sources of LCC data and used the same burned area satellite data to estimate BB CO emissions. Our analysis showed large discrepancies in annual mean CO emissions and explicit differences in the simulated CO concentrations among the BB emissions estimates. This study has confirmed that BB emissions estimates are sensitive to the land surface information on which they are based.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Henk Eskes, Kengo Sudo, Masayuki Takigawa, and Yugo Kanaya
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1703–1728, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1703-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study gives a systematic comparison of TROPOMI version 1.2 and OMI QA4ECV tropospheric NO2 column through global chemical data assimilation (DA) integration for April–May 2018. DA performance is controlled by measurement sensitivities, retrieval errors, and coverage. Due to reduced errors in TROPOMI, agreements against assimilated and independent observations were improved by TROPOMI DA compared to OMI DA. These results demonstrate that TROPOMI DA improves global analyses of NO2 and ozone.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Ikumi Oyabu, Kenji Kawamura, Tsutomu Uchida, Shuji Fujita, Kyotaro Kitamura, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Shuji Aoki, Shinji Morimoto, Takakiyo Nakazawa, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, and Jacob D. Morgan
The Cryosphere, 15, 5529–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present O2/N2 and Ar/N2 records from the Dome Fuji ice core through the bubbly ice, bubble–clathrate transition, and clathrate ice zones without gas-loss fractionation. The insolation signal is preserved through the clathrate formation. The relationship between Ar/Ν2 and Ο2/Ν2 suggests that the fractionation for the bubble–clathrate transition is mass independent, while the bubble close-off process involves a combination of mass-independent and mass-dependent fractionation for O2 and Ar.
Shohei Nomura, Manish Naja, M. Kawser Ahmed, Hitoshi Mukai, Yukio Terao, Toshinobu Machida, Motoki Sasakawa, and Prabir K. Patra
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16427–16452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in India and Bangladesh unveiled specific characteristics in their variations in these regions. Plants including rice cultivated in winter and summer strongly affected seasonal variations and levels in CO2 and CH4. Long-term variability of GHGs showed quite different features in their growth rates from those in Mauna Loa. GHG trends in this region seemed to be hardly affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Amanda R. Fay, Luke Gregor, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley, Nicolas Gruber, Marion Gehlen, Yosuke Iida, Goulven G. Laruelle, Christian Rödenbeck, Alizée Roobaert, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4693–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The movement of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean is estimated using surface ocean carbon (pCO2) measurements and an equation including variables such as temperature and wind speed; the choices of these variables lead to uncertainties. We introduce the SeaFlux ensemble which provides carbon flux maps calculated in a consistent manner, thus reducing uncertainty by using common choices for wind speed and a set definition of "global" coverage.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Yosuke Niwa, Yousuke Sawa, Hideki Nara, Toshinobu Machida, Hidekazu Matsueda, Taku Umezawa, Akihiko Ito, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hiroshi Tanimoto, and Yasunori Tohjima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9455–9473, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fires in Equatorial Asia release a large amount of carbon into the atmosphere. Extensively using high-precision atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) data from a commercial aircraft observation project, we estimated fire carbon emissions in Equatorial Asia induced by the big El Niño event in 2015. Additional shipboard measurement data elucidated the validity of the analysis and the best estimate indicated 273 Tg C for fire emissions during September–October 2015.
Astrid Müller, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Takafumi Sugita, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Prabir K. Patra, Joshua Laughner, and David Crisp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8255–8271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8255-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Over oceans, high uncertainties in satellite CO2 retrievals exist due to limited reference data. We combine commercial ship and aircraft observations and, with the aid of model calculations, obtain column-averaged mixing ratios of CO2 (XCO2) data over the Pacific Ocean. This new dataset has great potential as a robust reference for XCO2 measured from space and can help to better understand changes in the carbon cycle in response to climate change using satellite observations.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Stijn Naus, Stephen A. Montzka, Prabir K. Patra, and Maarten C. Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4809–4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4809-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4809-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Following up on previous box model studies, we employ a 3D transport model to estimate variations in the hydroxyl radical (OH) from observations of methyl chloroform (MCF). We derive small interannual OH variations that are consistent with variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We also find evidence for the release of MCF from oceans in atmospheric gradients of MCF. Both findings highlight the added value of a 3D transport model since box model studies did not identify these effects.
Rumi Ohgaito, Akitomo Yamamoto, Tomohiro Hajima, Ryouta O'ishi, Manabu Abe, Hiroaki Tatebe, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Michio Kawamiya
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1195–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model, selected time periods of the past were simulated. The ability to simulate the past is also an evaluation of the performance of the model in projecting global warming. Simulations for 21 000, 6000, and 127 000 years ago, and a simulation for 1000 years starting in 850 CE were simulated. The results showed that the model can generally describe past climate change.
Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Satoshi Sugawara, Yasunori Tohjima, Daisuke Goto, Kentaro Ishijima, Yosuke Niwa, Nobuyuki Aoki, and Shohei Murayama
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1357–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1357-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The surface Ar / N2 ratio showed not only secular increasing trends, but also interannual variations in phase with the global ocean heat content (OHC). Sensitivity test by using a two-dimensional model indicated that the secular trend in the Ar / N2 ratio is modified by the gravitational separation in the stratosphere. The analytical results imply that the surface Ar/N2 ratio is an important tracer for detecting spatiotemporally integrated changes in OHC and stratospheric circulation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Michio Watanabe, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hiroshi Koyama, Tomohiro Hajima, Masahiro Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Ocean Sci., 16, 1431–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1431-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon flux between air and sea is known to fluctuate in response to inherent climate variations. In this study, observed ocean hydrographic data were assimilated into Earth system models, and the carbon flux in the equatorial Pacific was evaluated. Our results suggest that, when observed ocean hydrographic data are assimilated into models for carbon cycle predictions on interannual to decadal timescales, the reproducibility of the internal climate variations in the model itself is important.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Yongjoo Choi, Yugo Kanaya, Masayuki Takigawa, Chunmao Zhu, Seung-Myung Park, Atsushi Matsuki, Yasuhiro Sadanaga, Sang-Woo Kim, Xiaole Pan, and Ignacio Pisso
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13655–13670, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13655-2020, 2020
Tokuta Yokohata, Tsuguki Kinoshita, Gen Sakurai, Yadu Pokhrel, Akihiko Ito, Masashi Okada, Yusuke Satoh, Etsushi Kato, Tomoko Nitta, Shinichiro Fujimori, Farshid Felfelani, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Toshichika Iizumi, Motoki Nishimori, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yoshiki Yamagata, and Seita Emori
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4713–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balances, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land-use decision-making model based on economic activities. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand.
Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Kevin Bowman, Takashi Sekiya, Henk Eskes, Folkert Boersma, Helen Worden, Nathaniel Livesey, Vivienne H. Payne, Kengo Sudo, Yugo Kanaya, Masayuki Takigawa, and Koji Ogochi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2223–2259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2223-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results from the Tropospheric Chemistry Reanalysis version 2 (TCR-2) for 2005–2018 obtained from the assimilation of multiple satellite measurements of ozone, CO, NO2, HNO3, and SO2 from the OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, TES, MLS, and MOPITT instruments. The evaluation results demonstrate the capability of the reanalysis products to improve understanding of the processes controlling variations in atmospheric composition, including long-term changes in air quality and emissions.
Cited articles
Baker, D. F., Law, R. M., Gurney, K. R., Rayner, P., Peylin, P., Denning, A.
S., Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, Y.-H., Ciais, P., Fung, I. Y.,
Heimann, M., John, J., Maki, T., Maksyutov, S., Masarie, K., Prather, M.,
Pak, B., Taguchi, S., and Zhu, Z.: TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison:
Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional
CO2 fluxes, 1988–2003, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB1002,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002439, 2006.
Baker, D. F., Bösch, H., Doney, S. C., O'Brien, D., and Schimel, D. S.:
Carbon source/sink information provided by column CO2 measurements from the
Orbiting Carbon Observatory, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 4145–4165,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-4145-2010, 2010.
Basu, S., Baker, D. F., Chevallier, F., Patra, P. K., Liu, J., and Miller, J. B.: The impact of transport model differences on CO2 surface flux estimates from OCO-2 retrievals of column average CO2, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7189–7215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7189-2018, 2018
Biraud, S. C., Torn, M. S., Smith, J. R., Sweeney, C., Riley, W. J., and
Tans, P. P.: A multi-year record of airborne CO2 observations in the US
Southern Great Plains, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 751–763,
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-751-2013, 2013.
Bisht, J. S. H., Machida, T., Chandra, N., Tsuboi, K., Patra, P. K.,
Umezawa, T., Niwa, Y., Sawa, Y., Morimoto, S., Nakazawa, T., Saitoh, N., and
Takigawa, M.: Seasonal Variations of SF6, CO2, CH4, and N2O in the UT/LS
Region due to Emissions, Transport, and Chemistry, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
126, e2020JD033541, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033541, 2021.
Bousquet, P., Philippe, P., Philippe, C., Corinne, L. Q., Pierre, F., and P.,
T. P.: Regional Changes in Carbon Dioxide Fluxes of Land and Oceans Since
1980, Science, 290, 1342–1346,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.290.5495.1342, 2000.
Canadell, J. G., Monteiro, P. M. S., Costa, M. H., Cotrim da Cunha, L., Cox, P. M.,
Eliseev, A. V., Henson, S., Ishii, M., Jaccard, S., Koven, C., Lohila, A.,
Patra, P. K., Piao, S., Rogelj, J., Syampungani, S., Zaehle, S., and Zickfeld, K.: Global
Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks, in: Climate Change
2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the
Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by: Masson-Delmotte, L. G., Zhai, V. P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L.,
Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Gomis, A. M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K.,
Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O.,
Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 673–816, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.007, 2021.
Chandra, N., Patra, P. K., Bisht, J. S. H., Ito, A., Umezawa, T., Saigusa,
N., Morimoto, S., Aoki, S., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Fujita, R., Takigawa, M.,
Watanabe, S., Saitoh, N., and Canadell, J. G.: Emissions from the Oil and Gas
Sectors, Coal Mining and Ruminant Farming Drive Methane Growth over the Past
Three Decades, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. Ser. II, 99, 2021–015,
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2021-015, 2021.
Chatterjee, A., Gierach, M. M., Sutton, A. J., Feely, R. A., Crisp, D.,
Eldering, A., Gunson, M. R., O'Dell, C. W., Stephens, B. B., and Schimel, D.
S.: Influence of El Niño on atmospheric CO2 over the tropical Pacific
Ocean: Findings from NASA's OCO-2 mission, Science, 358,
eaam5776, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam5776, 2017.
Chevallier, F., Bréon, F.-M., and Rayner, P. J.: Contribution of the
Orbiting Carbon Observatory to the estimation of CO 2 sources and
sinks: Theoretical study in a variational data assimilation framework, J.
Geophys. Res., 112, D09307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007375, 2007.
Ciais, P., Yao, Y., Gasser, T., Baccini, A., Wang, Y., Lauerwald, R., Peng,
S., Bastos, A., Li, W., Raymond, P. A., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P.,
Andres, R. J., Chang, J., Yue, C., Dolman, A. J., Haverd, V., Hartmann, J.,
Laruelle, G., Konings, A. G., King, A. W., Liu, Y., Luyssaert, S., Maignan,
F., Patra, P. K., Peregon, A., Regnier, P., Pongratz, J., Poulter, B.,
Shvidenko, A., Valentini, R., Wang, R., Broquet, G., Yin, Y., Zscheischler,
J., Guenet, B., Goll, D. S., Ballantyne, A.-P., Yang, H., Qiu, C., and Zhu,
D.: Empirical estimates of regional carbon budgets imply reduced global soil
heterotrophic respiration, Natl. Sci. Rev., 8, nwaa145, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa145,
2021.
Ciais, P., Bastos, A., Chevallier, F., Lauerwald, R., Poulter, B., Canadell,
J. G., Hugelius, G., Jackson, R. B., Jain, A., Jones, M., Kondo, M., Luijkx,
I. T., Patra, P. K., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Petrescu, A. M. R., Piao, S.,
Qiu, C., Von Randow, C., Regnier, P., Saunois, M., Scholes, R., Shvidenko,
A., Tian, H., Yang, H., Wang, X., and Zheng, B.: Definitions and methods to
estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional
Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2), Geosci. Model
Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022.
Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Huang, G., Guizzardi, D., Koffi, E., Muntean, M.,
Schieberle, C., Friedrich, R., and Janssens-Maenhout, G.: High resolution
temporal profiles in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research,
Sci. Data, 7, 121, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0462-2, 2020.
Crowell, S., Baker, D., Schuh, A., Basu, S., Jacobson, A. R., Chevallier,
F., Liu, J., Deng, F., Feng, L., McKain, K., Chatterjee, A., Miller, J. B.,
Stephens, B. B., Eldering, A., Crisp, D., Schimel, D., Nassar, R., O'Dell,
C. W., Oda, T., Sweeney, C., Palmer, P. I., and Jones, D. B. A.: The
2015–2016 carbon cycle as seen from OCO-2 and the global in situ network,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9797–9831, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9797-2019, 2019.
DeVries, T., Le Quéré, C., Andrews, O., Berthet, S., Hauck, J.,
Ilyina, T., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Nowicki, M.,
Schwinger, J., and Séférian, R.: Decadal trends in the ocean carbon
sink, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 201900371, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900371116, 2019.
Dlugokencky, E. and Tans, P.: Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), http://www.esrl. noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html (last access: 14 July 2022), 2020.
Dolman, A. J., Shvidenko, A., Schepaschenko, D., Ciais, P., Tchebakova, N.,
Chen, T., van der Molen, M. K., Belelli Marchesini, L., Maximov, T. C.,
Maksyutov, S., and Schulze, E.-D.: An estimate of the terrestrial carbon
budget of Russia using inventory-based, eddy covariance and inversion
methods, Biogeosciences, 9, 5323–5340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5323-2012,
2012.
Dye, D. G. and Tucker, C. J.: Seasonality and trends of snow-cover,
vegetation index, and temperature in northern Eurasia, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
30, 1405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016384, 2003.
Feely, R. A., Lamb, M. F., Greeley, D. J., and Wanninkhof, R.: Comparison of
the Carbon System Parameters at the Global CO2 Survey Crossover Locations in
the North and South Pacific Ocean, 1990–1996, USA, https://doi.org/10.15485/1464235, 1999.
Gatti, L. V, Basso, L. S., Miller, J. B., Gloor, M., Gatti Domingues, L.,
Cassol, H. L. G., Tejada, G., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Nobre, C., Peters,
W., Marani, L., Arai, E., Sanches, A. H., Corrêa, S. M., Anderson, L.,
Von Randow, C., Correia, C. S. C., Crispim, S. P., and Neves, R. A. L.:
Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change,
Nature, 595, 388–393, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6, 2021.
Gaubert, B., Stephens, B. B., Basu, S., Chevallier, F., Deng, F., Kort, E.
A., Patra, P. K., Peters, W., Rödenbeck, C., Saeki, T., Schimel, D., Van
der Laan-Luijkx, I., Wofsy, S., and Yin, Y.: Global atmospheric CO2 inverse
models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on
fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate, Biogeosciences, 16, 117–134,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-117-2019, 2019.
Gloor, M., Gatti, L., Brienen, R., Feldpausch, T. R., Phillips, O. L.,
Miller, J., Ometto, J. P., Rocha, H., Baker, T., de Jong, B., Houghton, R.
A., Malhi, Y., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Guyot, J.-L., Zhao, K., Jackson, R.,
Peylin, P., Sitch, S., Poulter, B., Lomas, M., Zaehle, S., Huntingford, C.,
Levy, P., and Lloyd, J.: The carbon balance of South America: a review of the
status, decadal trends and main determinants, Biogeosciences, 9,
5407–5430, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5407-2012, 2012.
Goto, D., Morimoto, S., Ishidoya, S., Aoki, S., and Nakazawa, T.: Terrestrial
biospheric and oceanic CO2 uptakes estimated from long-term measurements of
atmospheric CO2 mole fraction, δ13C, and δ(O2
Gurney, K. R., Law, R. M., Denning, A. S., Rayner, P. J., Baker, D.,
Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, Y.-H., Ciais, P., Fan, S., Fung, I. Y.,
Gloor, M., Heimann, M., Higuchi, K., John, J., Maki, T., Maksyutov, S.,
Masarie, K., Peylin, P., Prather, M., Pak, B. C., Randerson, J., Sarmiento,
J., Taguchi, S., Takahashi, T., and Yuen, C.-W.: Towards robust regional
estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models,
Nature, 415, 626–630, https://doi.org/10.1038/415626a, 2002.
Gurney, K. R., Baker, D., Rayner, P., and Denning, S.: Interannual variations
in continental-scale net carbon exchange and sensitivity to observing
networks estimated from atmospheric CO2 inversions for the period 1980 to
2005, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB3025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003082, 2008.
Hauck, J., Zeising, M., Le Quéré, C., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E.,
Bopp, L., Chau, T. T. T., Gürses, Ö., Ilyina, T., Landschützer,
P., Lenton, A., Resplandy, L., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., and
Séférian, R.: The ocean carbon sink estimate in the Global Carbon
Budget 2019, PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.920753, 2020.
Haverd, V., Raupach, M. R., Briggs, P. R., Davis, S. J., Law, R. M., Meyer,
C. P., Peters, G. P., Pickett-Heaps, C., and Sherman, B.: The Australian
terrestrial carbon budget, Biogeosciences, 10, 851–869,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, 2013.
Houweling, S., Baker, D., Basu, S., Boesch, H., Butz, A., Chevallier, F.,
Deng, F., Dlugokencky, E. J., Feng, L., Ganshin, A., Hasekamp, O., Jones,
D., Maksyutov, S., Marshall, J., Oda, T., O'Dell, C. W., Oshchepkov, S.,
Palmer, P. I., Peylin, P., Poussi, Z., Reum, F., Takagi, H., Yoshida, Y., and
Zhuravlev, R.: An intercomparison of inverse models for estimating sources
and sinks of CO2 using GOSAT measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120,
5253–5266, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022962, 2015.
Iida, Y., Takatani, Y., Kojima, A., and Ishii, M.: Global trends of ocean CO2
sink and ocean acidification: an observation-based reconstruction of surface
ocean inorganic carbon variables, J. Oceanogr., 77, 323–358,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-020-00571-5, 2021.
Ito, A.: Disequilibrium of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget caused by
disturbance-induced emissions and non-CO2 carbon export flows: a global
model assessment, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 685–709,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019, 2019.
Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Janssens-Maenhout, G., De-Gol,
A. J., Ciais, P., Patra, P. K., Chevallier, F., and Le Quéré, C.:
Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with
national inventories 1959–2018, Sci. Data, 8, 2052-4463,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00779-6, 2021.
Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Schwalm, C. R., Huntingford, C., Sitch, S.,
Ahlström, A., Arneth, A., Camps-Valls, G., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein,
P., Gans, F., Ichii, K., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Papale, D., Poulter, B.,
Raduly, B., Rödenbeck, C., Tramontana, G., Viovy, N., Wang, Y.-P.,
Weber, U., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: Compensatory water effects link yearly
global land CO2 sink changes to temperature, Nature, 541, 516–520,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20780, 2017.
Kawamiya, M., Hajima, T., Tachiiri, K., Watanabe, S., and Yokohata, T.: Two
decades of Earth system modeling with an emphasis on Model for
Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), Prog. Earth Planet. Sci.,
7, 2197-4284, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00369-5, 2020.
Keeling, R. F., Graven, H. D., Welp, L. R., Resplandy, L., Bi, J., Piper, S.
C., Sun, Y., Bollenbacher, A., and Meijer, H. A. J.: Atmospheric evidence for
a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land
photosynthesis, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 10361–10366,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619240114, 2017.
Keppler, L. and Landschützer, P.: Regional Wind Variability Modulates
the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink, Sci. Rep., 9, 7384,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-43826-y, 2019.
King, A. W., Andres, R. J., Davis, K. J., Hafer, M., Hayes, D. J.,
Huntzinger, D. N., de Jong, B., Kurz, W. A., McGuire, A. D., Vargas, R.,
Wei, Y., West, T. O., and Woodall, C. W.: North America's net terrestrial CO2
exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009, Biogeosciences, 12, 399–414,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-399-2015, 2015.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi,
K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.:
The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics, J.
Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001,
2015.
Kondo, M., Ichii, K., Patra, P. K., Poulter, B., Calle, L., Koven, C., Pugh,
T. A. M., Kato, E., Harper, A., Zaehle, S., and Wiltshire, A.: Plant Regrowth
as a Driver of Recent Enhancement of Terrestrial CO2 Uptake, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 45, 4820–4830, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077633, 2018.
Kondo, M., Patra, P. K., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Poulter, B.,
Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Canadell, J. G., Bastos, A., Lauerwald, R.,
Calle, L., Ichii, K., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., Jain, A. K.,
Kato, E., Kautz, M., Law, R. M., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Maki, T.,
Nakamura, T., Peylin, P., Rödenbeck, C., Zhuravlev, R., Saeki, T., Tian,
H., Zhu, D., and Ziehn, T.: State of the science in reconciling top-down and
bottom-up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget, Glob. Chane Biol., 26,
1068–1084, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14917, 2020.
L'Heureux, M. L., Takahashi, K., Watkins, A. B., Barnston, A. G., Becker, E.
J., Di Liberto, T. E., Gamble, F., Gottschalck, J., Halpert, M. S., Huang,
B., Mosquera-Vásquez, K., and Wittenberg, A. T.: Observing and Predicting
the 2015/16 El Niño, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1363–1382,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0009.1, 2017.
Long, M. C., Stephens, B. B., Kathryn, M., Colm, S., Keeling, R. F., Kort,
E. A., Morgan, E. J., Bent, J. D., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F.,
Róisín, C., Daube, B. C., Krummel, P. B., Zoë, L., Ingrid, L.
T., Munro, D., Patra, P. K., Peters, W., Michel, R., Rödenbeck, C.,
Stavert, A., Tans, P., and Wofsy, S. C.: Strong Southern Ocean carbon uptake
evident in airborne observations, Science, 374, 1275–1280,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi4355, 2021.
Luyssaert, S., Abril, G., Andres, R., Bastviken, D., Bellassen, V.,
Bergamaschi, P., Bousquet, P., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Corazza, M.,
Dechow, R., Erb, K.-H., Etiope, G., Fortems-Cheiney, A., Grassi, G.,
Hartmann, J., Jung, M., Lathière, J., Lohila, A., Mayorga, E., Moosdorf,
N., Njakou, D. S., Otto, J., Papale, D., Peters, W., Peylin, P., Raymond,
P., Rödenbeck, C., Saarnio, S., Schulze, E.-D., Szopa, S., Thompson, R.,
Verkerk, P. J., Vuichard, N., Wang, R., Wattenbach, M., and Zaehle, S.: The
European land and inland water CO2, CO, CH4, and N2O balance between 2001
and 2005, Biogeosciences, 9, 3357–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3357-2012,
2012.
Machida, T., Matsueda, H., Sawa, Y., Nakagawa, Y., Hirotani, K., Kondo, N.,
Goto, K., Nakazawa, T., Ishikawa, K., and Ogawa, T.: Worldwide Measurements
of Atmospheric CO2 and Other Trace Gas Species Using Commercial Airlines, J.
Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 25, 1744–1754, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JTECHA1082.1,
2008.
Matsueda, H., Machida, T., Sawa, Y., Nakagawa, Y., Hirotani, K., Ikeda, H.,
Kondo, N., and Goto, K.: Evaluation of atmospheric CO2 measurements from new
flask air sampling of JAL airliner observations, Pap. Meteorol. Geophys.,
59, 1–17, 2008.
Miyazaki, K., Maki, T., Patra, P., and Nakazawa, T.: Assessing the impact of
satellite, aircraft, and surface observations on CO2 flux estimation using
an ensemble-based 4-D data assimilation system, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
116, D16306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015366, 2011.
Nakazawa, T., Ishizawa, M., HiguchiI, K. A. Z., and Trivett, N. B. A.: TWO
CURVE FITTING METHODS APPLIED TO CO2 FLASK DATA, Environmetrics, 8,
197–218, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-095X(199705)8:3<197::AID-ENV248>3.0.CO;2-C, 1997.
Niwa, Y., Fujii, Y., Sawa, Y., Iida, Y., Ito, A., Satoh, M., Imasu, R.,
Tsuboi, K., Matsueda, H., and Saigusa, N.: A 4D-Var inversion system based on
the icosahedral grid model (NICAM-TM 4D-Var v1.0) – Part 2: Optimization
scheme and identical twin experiment of atmospheric CO2 inversion, Geosci.
Model Dev., 10, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2201-2017, 2017.
Niwa, Y., Sawa, Y., Nara, H., Machida, T., Matsueda, H., Umezawa, T., Ito,
A., Nakaoka, S.-I., Tanimoto, H., and Tohjima, Y.: Estimation of fire-induced
carbon emissions from Equatorial Asia in 2015 using in situ aircraft and
ship observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9455–9473,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9455-2021, 2021.
Oda, T., Maksyutov, S., and Andres, R. J.: The Open-source Data Inventory for
Anthropogenic CO2, version 2016 (ODIAC2016): a global monthly fossil fuel
CO2 gridded emissions data product for tracer transport simulations and
surface flux inversions, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 87–107,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-87-2018, 2018.
Olsen, S. C. and Randerson, J. T.: Differences between surface and column
atmospheric CO2 and implications for carbon cycle research, J. Geophys.
Res., 109, D02301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003968, 2004.
Patra, P. K.: MIROC4-ACTM CO2 Inversion flux (2001–2020; case s050_ux4_gc3t) (Version v0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5776197, 2021a.
Patra, P. K.: MIROC4-ACTM CO2 Inversion flux (2001–2020; case s050_ux4_gvjf) (Version v0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5776212, 2021b.
Patra, P. K.: prabirp/co2l2r84: Revised TransCom T3L2 code for 84 region inversion (Version CO2 inversion), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6826842, 2022.
Patra, P. K., Maksyutov, S., Ishizawa, M., Nakazawa, T., Takahashi, T., and
Ukita, J.: Interannual and decadal changes in the sea-air CO2 flux from
atmospheric CO2 inverse modeling, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB4013,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002257, 2005a.
Patra, P. K., Ishizawa, M., Maksyutov, S., Nakazawa, T., and Inoue, G.: Role
of biomass burning and climate anomalies for land-atmosphere carbon fluxes
based on inverse modeling of atmospheric CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
19, 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002258, 2005b.
Patra, P. K., Canadell, J. G., Houghton, R. A., Piao, S. L., Oh, N.-H.,
Ciais, P., Manjunath, K. R., Chhabra, A., Wang, T., Bhattacharya, T.,
Bousquet, P., Hartman, J., Ito, A., Mayorga, E., Niwa, Y., Raymond, P. A.,
Sarma, V. V. S. S., and Lasco, R.: The carbon budget of South Asia,
Biogeosciences, 10, 513–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, 2013.
Patra, P. K., Crisp, D., Kaiser, J. W., Wunch, D., Saeki, T., Ichii, K.,
Sekiya, T., Wennberg, P. O., Feist, D. G., Pollard, D. F., Griffith, D. W.
T., Velazco, V. A., De Maziere, M., Sha, M. K., Roehl, C., Chatterjee, A., and Ishijima, K.: The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) tracks 2–3
peta-gram increase in carbon release to the atmosphere during the 2014–2016
El Niño, Sci. Rep., 7, 13567, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13459-0, 2017.
Patra, P. K., Takigawa, M., Watanabe, S., Chandra, N., Ishijima, K., and
Yamashita, Y.: Improved Chemical Tracer Simulation by MIROC4.0-based
Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model (MIROC4-ACTM), SOLA, 14, 91–96,
https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2018-016, 2018.
Peiro, H., Crowell, S., Schuh, A., Baker, D. F., O'Dell, C., Jacobson, A.
R., Chevallier, F., Liu, J., Eldering, A., Crisp, D., Deng, F., Weir, B.,
Basu, S., Johnson, M. S., Philip, S., and Baker, I.: Four years of global
carbon cycle observed from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2)
version 9 and in situ data and comparison to OCO-2 version 7, Atmos. Chem.
Phys., 22, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1097-2022, 2022.
Peylin, P., Law, R. M., Gurney, K. R., Chevallier, F., Jacobson, A. R., Maki, T., Niwa, Y., Patra, P. K., Peters, W., Rayner, P. J., Rödenbeck, C., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., and Zhang, X.: Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions, Biogeosciences, 10, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, 2013.
Philip, S., Johnson, M. S., Potter, C., Genovesse, V., Baker, D. F., Haynes, K. D., Henze, D. K., Liu, J., and Poulter, B.: Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13267–13287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13267-2019, 2019.
Piao, S. L., Ito, A., Li, S. G., Huang, Y., Ciais, P., Wang, X. H., Peng, S.
S., Nan, H. J., Zhao, C., Ahlström, A., Andres, R. J., Chevallier, F.,
Fang, J. Y., Hartmann, J., Huntingford, C., Jeong, S., Levis, S., Levy, P.
E., Li, J. S., Lomas, M. R., Mao, J. F., Mayorga, E., Mohammat, A., Muraoka,
H., Peng, C. H., Peylin, P., Poulter, B., Shen, Z. H., Shi, X., Sitch, S.,
Tao, S., Tian, H. Q., Wu, X. P., Xu, M., Yu, G. R., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S.,
Zeng, N., and Zhu, B.: The carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems in East
Asia over the last two decades, Biogeosciences, 9, 3571–3586,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3571-2012, 2012.
Qu, Z., Jacob, D. J., Shen, L., Lu, X., Zhang, Y., Scarpelli, T. R., Nesser,
H., Sulprizio, M. P., Maasakkers, J. D., Bloom, A. A., Worden, J. R.,
Parker, R. J., and Delgado, A. L.: Global distribution of methane emissions:
a comparative inverse analysis of observations from the TROPOMI and GOSAT
satellite instruments, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14159–14175,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14159-2021, 2021.
Randerson, J. T., Thompson, M. V, Conway, T. J., Fung, I. Y., and Field, C.
B.: The contribution of terrestrial sources and sinks to trends in the
seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
11, 535–560, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GB02268, 1997.
Raupach, M., Canadell, J., Ciais, P., et al.: The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnera-bilities in the carbon-climate-human system, Tellus B, 63, 145–164, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00521.x, 2011.
Rayner, P. J., Enting, I. G., Francey, R. J., and Langenfelds, R.:
Reconstructing the recent carbon cycle from atmospheric CO2, δ13C
and O2
Rayner, P. J., Law, R. M., Allison, C. E., Francey, R. J., and Trudinger, C.
M.: Interannual variability of the global carbon cycle (1992–2005)
inferred by inversion of atmospheric CO2 and δ13CO2 measurements, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22,
1–12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003068, 2008.
Rödenbeck, C., Houwelling, S., Gloor, M., and Heimann, M.: Time-dependent
atmospheric CO2 inversions based on interannually varying tracer transport,
Tellus B, 55, 488–497, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.00033.x, 2003.
Rödenbeck, C., Houweling, S., Gloor, M., and Heimann, M.: CO2 flux
history 1982–2001 inferred from atmospheric data using a global inversion
of atmospheric transport, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 3, 1919–1964,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-3-1919-2003, 2003.
Saeki, T., and Patra, P. K.: Implications of overestimated anthropogenic CO2
emissions on East Asian and global land CO2 flux inversion, Geosci. Lett.,
4, 2196-4092, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-017-0074-7, 2017.
Santoso, A., Mcphaden, M. J., and Cai, W.: The Defining Characteristics of
ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño, Rev. Geophys., 55,
1079–1129, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560, 2017.
Schuldt, K. N., Mund, M., Luijkx, I. T., et al.: Multi-laboratory
compilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide data for the period 1957–2019,
obspack_co2_1_GLOBALVIEWplus_v6.1_2021-03-01, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Laboratory [data set], https://doi.org/10.25925/20210801, 2021.
Silva Junior, C. H. L., Pessôa, A. C. M., Carvalho, N. S., Reis, J. B.
C., Anderson, L. O., and Aragão, L. E. O. C.: The Brazilian Amazon
deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade, Nat. Ecol. Evol.,
5, 144–145, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01368-x, 2021.
Stephens, B. B., Gurney, K. R., Tans, P. P., Sweeney, C., Peters, W.,
Bruhwiler, L., Ciais, P., Ramonet, M., Bousquet, P., Nakazawa, T., Aoki, S.,
Machida, T., Inoue, G., Vinnichenko, N., Lloyd, J., Jordan, A., Heimann, M.,
Shibistova, O., Langenfelds, R. L., Steele, L. P., Francey, R. J., and
Denning, A. S.: Weak Northern and Strong Tropical Land Carbon Uptake from
Vertical Profiles of Atmospheric CO2, Science, 316,
1732–1735, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1137004, 2007.
Sweeney, C., Karion, A., Wolter, S., Newberger, T., Guenther, D., Higgs, J.
A., Andrews, A. E., Lang, P. M., Neff, D., Dlugokencky, E., Miller, J. B.,
Montzka, S. A., Miller, B. R., Masarie, K. A., Biraud, S. C., Novelli, P.
C., Crotwell, M., Crotwell, A. M., Thoning, K., and Tans, P. P.: Seasonal
climatology of CO2 across North America from aircraft measurements in
the NOAA/ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 5155–5190, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022591, 2015.
Takahashi, T., Sutherland, S. C., Wanninkhof, R., Sweeney, C., Feely, R. A.,
Chipman, D. W., Hales, B., Friederich, G., Chavez, F., Sabine, C., Watson,
A., Bakker, D. C. E., Schuster, U., Metzl, N., Yoshikawa-Inoue, H., Ishii,
M., Midorikawa, T., Nojiri, Y., Körtzinger, A., Steinhoff, T., Hoppema,
M., Olafsson, J., Arnarson, T. S., Tilbrook, B., Johannessen, T., Olsen, A.,
Bellerby, R., Wong, C. S., Delille, B., Bates, N. R., and de Baar, H. J. W.:
Climatological mean and decadal change in surface ocean pCO2, and net
sea–air CO2 flux over the global oceans, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 554–577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.009, 2009.
Tarantola, A.: Inverse Problem Theory and Methods for Model Parameter
Estimation, 1st Edn., Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,
Philadelphia, Elsevier, New York, 2005.
Thompson, R. L., Patra, P. K., Chevallier, F., Maksyutov, S., Law, R. M.,
Ziehn, T., Van Der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., Peters, W., Ganshin, A., Zhuravlev,
R., Maki, T., Nakamura, T., Shirai, T., Ishizawa, M., Saeki, T., Machida,
T., Poulter, B., Canadell, J. G., and Ciais, P.: Top-down assessment of the
Asian carbon budget since the mid 1990s, Nat. Commun., 7, 10724,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10724, 2016.
Valentini, R., Arneth, A., Bombelli, A., Castaldi, S., Cazzolla Gatti, R.,
Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Grieco, E., Hartmann, J., Henry, M., Houghton, R.
A., Jung, M., Kutsch, W. L., Malhi, Y., Mayorga, E., Merbold, L.,
Murray-Tortarolo, G., Papale, D., Peylin, P., Poulter, B., Raymond, P. A.,
Santini, M., Sitch, S., Vaglio Laurin, G., van der Werf, G. R., Williams, C.
A., and Scholes, R. J.: A full greenhouse gases budget of Africa: synthesis,
uncertainties, and vulnerabilities, Biogeosciences, 11, 381–407,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, 2014.
van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Velde, I. R., van der Veen, E., Tsuruta,
A., Stanislawska, K., Babenhauserheide, A., Zhang, H. F., Liu, Y., He, W.,
Chen, H., Masarie, K. A., Krol, M. C., and Peters, W.: The CarbonTracker Data
Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) v1.0: implementation and global carbon balance
2001–2015, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2785–2800,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2785-2017, 2017.
van der Velde, I. R., van der Werf, G. R., Houweling, S., Maasakkers, J. D.,
Borsdorff, T., Landgraf, J., Tol, P., van Kempen, T. A., van Hees, R.,
Hoogeveen, R., Veefkind, J. P., and Aben, I.: Vast CO2 release from
Australian fires in 2019–2020 constrained by satellite, Nature, 597,
366–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03712-y, 2021.
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., van Leeuwen, T. T., Chen,
Y., Rogers, B. M., Mu, M., van Marle, M. J. E., Morton, D. C., Collatz, G.
J., Yokelson, R. J., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Global fire emissions estimates
during 1997–2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017.
Wang, J. S., Kawa, S. R., Collatz, G. J., Sasakawa, M., Gatti, L. V., Machida, T., Liu, Y., and Manyin, M. E.: A global synthesis inversion analysis of recent variability in CO2 fluxes using GOSAT and in situ observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11097–11124, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11097-2018, 2018.
Watanabe, S., Miura, H., Sekiguchi, M., Nagashima, T., Sudo, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: Development of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model
for Integrated Earth System Modeling on the Earth Simulator, J. Earth
Simul., 9, 27–35, 2008.
WDCGG (World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases): World Data Centre (WDC) operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) under the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) [data set], https://gaw.kishou.go.jp/; last access: 14 July 2022.
Wofsy, S. C.: HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO): fine-grained,
global-scale measurements of climatically important atmospheric gases and
aerosols, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 369,
2073–2086, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0313, 2011.
Wolter, K. and Timlin, M. S.: El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour
since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext),
Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1074–1087, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2336,
2011.
Yasunaka, S., Siswanto, E., Olsen, A., Hoppema, M., Watanabe, E., Fransson,
A., Chierici, M., Murata, A., Lauvset, S. K., Wanninkhof, R., Takahashi, T.,
Kosugi, N., Omar, A. M., van Heuven, S., and Mathis, J. T.: Arctic Ocean CO2;
uptake: an improved multiyear estimate of the air–sea CO2 flux
incorporating chlorophyll a concentrations, Biogeosciences, 15,
1643–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1643-2018, 2018.
Short summary
This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: (1) quantify mean and uncertainty in non-fossil-fuel CO2 fluxes estimated by inverse modeling and (2) provide in-depth analyses of regional CO2 fluxes in support of emission mitigation policymaking. CO2 flux variability and trends are discussed concerning natural climate variability and human disturbances using multiple lines of evidence.
This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: (1) quantify mean and uncertainty in...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint