Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A machine learning approach to quantify meteorological drivers of ozone pollution in China from 2015 to 2019
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR47 TJ, UK
Grant L. Forster
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR47 TJ, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR47 TJ, UK
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR47 TJ, UK
Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Data Science Institute, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
No articles found.
Karina E. Adcock, Penelope A. Pickers, Andrew C. Manning, Grant L. Forster, Leigh S. Fleming, Thomas Barningham, Philip A. Wilson, Elena A. Kozlova, Marica Hewitt, Alex J. Etchells, and Andy J. Macdonald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5183–5206,Short summary
We present a 12-year time series of continuous atmospheric measurements of O2 and CO2 at the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory in the United Kingdom. These measurements are combined into the term atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), a tracer that is not influenced by land biosphere processes. The datasets show a long-term increasing trend in CO2 and decreasing trends in O2 and APO between 2010 and 2021.
Robert Woodward-Massey, Roberto Sommariva, Lisa K. Whalley, Danny R. Cryer, Trevor Ingham, William J. Bloss, Stephen M. Ball, Sam Cox, James D. Lee, Chris P. Reed, Leigh R. Crilley, Louisa J. Kramer, Brian J. Bandy, Grant L. Forster, Claire E. Reeves, Paul S. Monks, and Dwayne E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14393–14424,Short summary
Measurements of OH, HO2 and RO2 radicals and also OH reactivity were made at a UK coastal site and compared to calculations from a constrained box model utilising the Master Chemical Mechanism. The model agreement displayed a strong dependence on the NO concentration. An experimental budget analysis for OH, HO2, RO2 and total ROx demonstrated significant imbalances between HO2 and RO2 production rates. Ozone production rates were calculated from measured radicals and compared to modelled values.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Alyson Douglas, Timothy A. Myers, Peer Nowack, Philip Stier, Casey J. Wall, and Sarah Wilson Kemsley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10775–10794,Short summary
This study uses an observation-based cloud-controlling factor framework to study near-global sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to a large number of meteorological and aerosol controls. We present near-global sensitivity patterns to selected thermodynamic, dynamic, and aerosol factors and discuss the physical mechanisms underlying the derived sensitivities. Our study hopes to guide future analyses aimed at constraining cloud feedbacks and aerosol–cloud interactions.
Hannah Chawner, Karina E. Adcock, Tim Arnold, Yuri Artioli, Caroline Dylag, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Heather Graven, Gennadi Lessin, Peter Levy, Ingrid T. Luijx, Alistair Manning, Penelope A. Pickers, Chris Rennick, Christian Rödenbeck, and Matthew Rigby
As O2 is uptaken during combustion it can be used to trace fossil fuel (ff) emissions. We combine CO2 and O2 to minimise the biospheric impact using a quantity called atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), providing a method to isolate ff emissions. We model APO and compare with observations, focusing mainly on a site in Norfolk, UK. We attempt to use this to estimate emissions of ffCO2. We find large uncertainty in oceanic O2 emissions estimates, impacting both our model and estimates of ffCO2.
Leigh S. Fleming, Andrew C. Manning, Penelope A. Pickers, Grant L. Forster, and Alex J. Etchells
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 387–401,Short summary
Measurements of atmospheric O2 can help constrain the carbon cycle processes and quantify fossil fuel CO2 emissions; however, measurement of atmospheric O2 is very challenging, and existing analysers are complex systems to build and maintain. We have tested a new O2 analyser (Picarro Inc. G2207-i) in the laboratory and at Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory. We have found that the G2207-i does not perform as well as an existing O2 analyser from Sable Systems Inc.
Peter Bergamaschi, Arjo Segers, Dominik Brunner, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Michel Ramonet, Tim Arnold, Tobias Biermann, Huilin Chen, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Grant Forster, Arnoud Frumau, Dagmar Kubistin, Xin Lan, Markus Leuenberger, Matthias Lindauer, Morgan Lopez, Giovanni Manca, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Simon O'Doherty, Bert Scheeren, Martin Steinbacher, Pamela Trisolino, Gabriela Vítková, and Camille Yver Kwok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13243–13268,Short summary
We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system, "FLEXVAR", and its application for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018. The new system combines a high spatial resolution of 7 km x 7 km with a variational data assimilation technique, which allows CH4 emissions to be optimized from individual model grid cells. The high resolution allows the observations to be better reproduced, while the derived emissions show overall good consistency with two existing models.
Robert Woodward-Massey, Roberto Sommariva, Lisa K. Whalley, Danny R. Cryer, Trevor Ingham, William J1 Bloss, Sam Cox, James D. Lee, Chris P. Reed, Leigh R. Crilley, Louisa J. Kramer, Brian J. Bandy, Grant L. Forster, Claire E. Reeves, Paul S. Monks, and Dwayne E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Preprint withdrawnShort summary
We measured radicals (OH, HO2, RO2) and OH reactivity at a UK coastal site and compared our observations to the predictions of an MCMv3.3.1 box model. We find variable agreement between measured and modelled radical concentrations and OH reactivity, where the levels of agreement for individual species display strong dependences on NO concentrations. The most substantial disagreement is found for RO2 at high NO (> 1 ppbv), when RO2 levels are underpredicted by a factor of ~10–30.
Peer Nowack, Lev Konstantinovskiy, Hannah Gardiner, and John Cant
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5637–5655,Short summary
Machine learning (ML) calibration techniques could be an effective way to improve the performance of low-cost air pollution sensors. Here we provide novel insights from case studies within the urban area of London, UK, where we compared the performance of three ML techniques to calibrate low-cost measurements of NO2 and PM10. In particular, we highlight the key issue of the method-dependent robustness in maintaining calibration skill after transferring sensors to different measurement sites.
Carl Thomas, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Gerald Lim, Joanna Haigh, and Peer Nowack
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 581–608,Short summary
Atmospheric blocking events are complex large-scale weather patterns which block the path of the jet stream. They are associated with heat waves in summer and cold snaps in winter. Blocking is poorly understood, and the effect of climate change is not clear. Here, we present a new method to study blocking using unsupervised machine learning. We show that this method performs better than previous methods used. These results show the potential for unsupervised learning in atmospheric science.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 18, 3861–3879,Short summary
Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061,Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Abdul Malik, Peer J. Nowack, Joanna D. Haigh, Long Cao, Luqman Atique, and Yves Plancherel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15461–15485,Short summary
Solar geoengineering has been introduced to mitigate human-caused global warming by reflecting sunlight back into space. This research investigates the impact of solar geoengineering on the tropical Pacific climate. We find that solar geoengineering can compensate some of the greenhouse-induced changes in the tropical Pacific but not all. In particular, solar geoengineering will result in significant changes in rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and increased frequency of extreme ENSO events.
Stuart N. Riddick, Denise L. Mauzerall, Michael Celia, Neil R. P. Harris, Grant Allen, Joseph Pitt, John Staunton-Sykes, Grant L. Forster, Mary Kang, David Lowry, Euan G. Nisbet, and Alistair J. Manning
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9787–9796,Short summary
Currently, bottom-up methods estimate that 0.13 % of methane produced by UK North Sea oil and gas installations is lost. Here we measure emissions from eight platforms in the North Sea and, when considered collectively, the methane loss is estimated at 0.19 % of gas production. As this ambient loss is not explicitly accounted for in the bottom-up approach, these measured emissions represent significant additional emissions above previous estimates.
Emily D. White, Matthew Rigby, Mark F. Lunt, T. Luke Smallman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Alistair J. Manning, Anita L. Ganesan, Simon O'Doherty, Ann R. Stavert, Kieran Stanley, Mathew Williams, Peter Levy, Michel Ramonet, Grant L. Forster, Andrew C. Manning, and Paul I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4345–4365,Short summary
Understanding carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from the terrestrial biosphere on a national scale is important for evaluating land use strategies to mitigate climate change. We estimate emissions of CO2 from the UK biosphere using atmospheric data in a top-down approach. Our findings show that bottom-up estimates from models of biospheric fluxes overestimate the amount of CO2 uptake in summer. This suggests these models wrongly estimate or omit key processes, e.g. land disturbance due to harvest.
Sarah Connors, Alistair J. Manning, Andrew D. Robinson, Stuart N. Riddick, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Aoife Grant, Stephen Humphrey, Simon O'Doherty, Dave E. Oram, Paul I. Palmer, Robert L. Skelton, Kieran Stanley, Ann Stavert, Dickon Young, and Neil R. P. Harris
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Preprint withdrawnShort summary
Methane is an important greenhouse gas & reducing its emissions is a vital part of climate change mitigation to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C. This paper explains a way to estimate emitted methane over a sub-national area by combining measurements & computer dispersion modelling in a so-called
inversiontechnique. Compared with the current national inventory, our results show lower emissions for Cambridgeshire, possibly due to waste sector emission differences.
Fernando Santos, Karla Longo, Alex Guenther, Saewung Kim, Dasa Gu, Dave Oram, Grant Forster, James Lee, James Hopkins, Joel Brito, and Saulo Freitas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12715–12734,Short summary
We investigated the impact of biomass burning on the chemical composition of trace gases in the Amazon. The findings corroborate the influence of biomass burning activity not only on direct emissions of particulate matter but also on the oxidative capacity to produce secondary organic aerosol. The scientists plan to use this information to improve the numerical model simulation with a better representativeness of the chemical processes, which can impact on global climate prediction.
David E. Oram, Matthew J. Ashfold, Johannes C. Laube, Lauren J. Gooch, Stephen Humphrey, William T. Sturges, Emma C. Leedham Elvidge, Grant L. Forster, Neil R. P. Harris, Mohammed Iqbal Mead, Azizan Abu Samah, Siew Moi Phang, Chang-Feng Ou-Yang, Neng-Huei Lin, Jia-Lin Wang, Angela K. Baker, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, and David Sherry
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11929–11941,Short summary
We have observed large amounts of man-made chlorine compounds in E and SE Asia and in the upper tropical troposphere. These relatively short-lived compounds are not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, but if significant quantities were able to reach the stratosphere, the long-term recovery of stratospheric ozone would be delayed. We have also identified an important atmospheric transport mechanism that can rapidly transport these chemicals from E Asia to the upper troposphere via the tropics.
Lili Xia, Peer J. Nowack, Simone Tilmes, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11913–11928,Short summary
Ozone is a key air pollutant. We model two geoengineering schemes, stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction, to compare their impacts on atmospheric ozone concentrations. With the nearly identical global mean surface temperature reduction, solar dimming increases global average surface ozone concentration, while sulfate injection decreases it. This difference is due to different stratosphere–troposphere exchange of ozone and tropospheric ozone chemistry in the two scenarios.
Peer Johannes Nowack, Nathan Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, and John Adrian Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4191–4203,Short summary
Various forms of solar radiation management (SRM) have been proposed to counteract man-made climate change. However, all these countermeasures could have unintended side-effects. We add a novel perspective to this discussion by showing how atmospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering could affect UV exposure and air pollution. This would have implications for human health and ecology. Atmospheric composition changes are therefore important to consider in the evaluation of any SRM scheme.
D. Stone, M. J. Evans, H. Walker, T. Ingham, S. Vaughan, B. Ouyang, O. J. Kennedy, M. W. McLeod, R. L. Jones, J. Hopkins, S. Punjabi, R. Lidster, J. F. Hamilton, J. D. Lee, A. C. Lewis, L. J. Carpenter, G. Forster, D. E. Oram, C. E. Reeves, S. Bauguitte, W. Morgan, H. Coe, E. Aruffo, C. Dari-Salisburgo, F. Giammaria, P. Di Carlo, and D. E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1299–1321,
M. Le Breton, A. Bacak, J. B. A. Muller, S. J. O'Shea, P. Xiao, M. N. R. Ashfold, M. C. Cooke, R. Batt, D. E. Shallcross, D. E. Oram, G. Forster, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, P. I. Palmer, M. Parrington, A. C. Lewis, J. D. Lee, and C. J. Percival
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9217–9232,
V. V. Petrenko, P. Martinerie, P. Novelli, D. M. Etheridge, I. Levin, Z. Wang, T. Blunier, J. Chappellaz, J. Kaiser, P. Lang, L. P. Steele, S. Hammer, J. Mak, R. L. Langenfelds, J. Schwander, J. P. Severinghaus, E. Witrant, G. Petron, M. O. Battle, G. Forster, W. T. Sturges, J.-F. Lamarque, K. Steffen, and J. W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7567–7585,
M. Parrington, P. I. Palmer, A. C. Lewis, J. D. Lee, A. R. Rickard, P. Di Carlo, J. W. Taylor, J. R. Hopkins, S. Punjabi, D. E. Oram, G. Forster, E. Aruffo, S. J. Moller, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, J. D. Allan, H. Coe, and R. J. Leigh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7321–7341,
P. I. Palmer, M. Parrington, J. D. Lee, A. C. Lewis, A. R. Rickard, P. F. Bernath, T. J. Duck, D. L. Waugh, D. W. Tarasick, S. Andrews, E. Aruffo, L. J. Bailey, E. Barrett, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, K. R. Curry, P. Di Carlo, L. Chisholm, L. Dan, G. Forster, J. E. Franklin, M. D. Gibson, D. Griffin, D. Helmig, J. R. Hopkins, J. T. Hopper, M. E. Jenkin, D. Kindred, J. Kliever, M. Le Breton, S. Matthiesen, M. Maurice, S. Moller, D. P. Moore, D. E. Oram, S. J. O'Shea, R. C. Owen, C. M. L. S. Pagniello, S. Pawson, C. J. Percival, J. R. Pierce, S. Punjabi, R. M. Purvis, J. J. Remedios, K. M. Rotermund, K. M. Sakamoto, A. M. da Silva, K. B. Strawbridge, K. Strong, J. Taylor, R. Trigwell, K. A. Tereszchuk, K. A. Walker, D. Weaver, C. Whaley, and J. C. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6239–6261,
P. Di Carlo, E. Aruffo, M. Busilacchio, F. Giammaria, C. Dari-Salisburgo, F. Biancofiore, G. Visconti, J. Lee, S. Moller, C. E. Reeves, S. Bauguitte, G. Forster, R. L. Jones, and B. Ouyang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 971–980,
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)The atmospheric oxidizing capacity in China – Part 1: Roles of different photochemical processesBenefits of net-zero policies for future ozone pollution in ChinaSimulating impacts on UK air quality from net-zero forest planting scenariosUnderstanding offshore high-ozone events during TRACER-AQ 2021 in Houston: insights from WRF–CAMx photochemical modelingOpinion: Establishing a science-into-policy process for tropospheric ozone assessmentAtmospheric composition and climate impacts of a future hydrogen economyAssessment of isoprene and near-surface ozone sensitivities to water stress over the Euro-Mediterranean regionNighttime ozone in the lower boundary layer: insights from 3-year tower-based measurements in South China and regional air quality modelingWhat controls ozone sensitivity in the upper tropical troposphere?Modelling the impacts of emission changes on O3 sensitivity, atmospheric oxidation capacity, and pollution transport over the Catalonia regionA regional modelling study of halogen chemistry within a volcanic plume of Mt Etna's Christmas 2018 eruptionWeekly-derived top-down VOC fluxes over Europe from TROPOMI HCHO data in 2018–2021Constraining the budget of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide using a 3-D chemical transport modelAtmospheric CO2 inversion reveals the Amazon as a minor carbon source caused by fire emissions, with forest uptake offsetting about half of these emissionsRapid O3 assimilations – Part 2: Tropospheric O3 changes accompanied by declining NOx emissions in the USA and Europe in 2005–2020High-resolution air quality simulations of ozone exceedance events during the Lake Michigan Ozone StudySimulations of winter ozone in the Upper Green River basin, Wyoming, using WRF-ChemThe suitability of atmospheric oxygen measurements to constrain Western European fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trendsMeasurement report: Assessment of Asian emissions of ethane and propane with a chemistry transport model based on observations from the island of HaterumaSensitivity of northeastern US surface ozone predictions to the representation of atmospheric chemistry in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMMv1.0)Current status of model predictions on volatile organic compounds and impacts on surface ozone predictions during summer in ChinaDaytime isoprene nitrates under changing NOx and O3Atmospheric data support a multi-decadal shift in the global methane budget towards natural tropical emissionsAir quality and related health impact in the UNECE region: source attribution and scenario analysisFuture tropospheric ozone budget and distribution over East Asia under a Net Zero scenarioEast Asian methane emissions inferred from high-resolution inversions of GOSAT and TROPOMI observations: a comparative and evaluative analysisTowards near-real-time air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions: lessons learned from multiple estimates during the COVID-19 pandemicSpatiotemporal variation of radionuclide dispersion from nuclear power plant accidents using FLEXPART mini-ensemble modelingContinuous weekly monitoring of methane emissions from the Permian Basin by inversion of TROPOMI satellite observationsWestern European emission estimates of CFC-11, CFC-12 and CCl4 derived from atmospheric measurements from 2008 to 2021Evaluating modelled tropospheric columns of CH4, CO and O3 in the Arctic using ground-based FTIR measurementsUtility of Geostationary Lightning Mapper Derived Lightning NOx Emission Estimates in Air Quality Modeling StudiesInvestigating the differences in calculating global mean surface CO2 abundance: the impact of analysis methodologies and site selectionEstimating methane emissions in the Arctic nations using surface observations from 2008 to 2019Background nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over the United States and its implications for satellite observations and trends: effects of nitrate photolysis, aircraft, and open firesSeasonal, interannual and decadal variability of tropospheric ozone in the North Atlantic: comparison of UM-UKCA and remote sensing observations for 2005–2018Quantification of oil and gas methane emissions in the Delaware and Marcellus basins using a network of continuous tower-based measurementsInsights into Soil NO Emissions and the Contribution to Surface Ozone Formation in ChinaGlobal sensitivities of reactive N and S gas and particle concentrations and deposition to precursor emissions reductionsA high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021Large simulated future changes in the nitrate radical under the CMIP6 SSP scenarios: implications for oxidation chemistryImpact of HO2 aerosol uptake on radical levels and O3 production during summertime in BeijingSource attribution of near-surface ozone trends in the United States during 1995–2019Exploring the drivers of tropospheric hydroxyl radical trends in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4.1 atmospheric chemistry–climate modelComprehensive multiphase chlorine chemistry in the box model CAABA/MECCA: Implications to atmospheric oxidative capacityImpacts of land cover changes on biogenic emission and its contribution to ozone and secondary organic aerosol in ChinaHigh-resolution regional emission inventory contributes to the evaluation of policy effectiveness: a case study in Jiangsu Province, ChinaWhy is ozone in South Korea and the Seoul metropolitan area so high and increasing?Vehicular ammonia emissions: an underappreciated emission source in densely populated areasImproving ozone simulations in Asia via multisource data assimilation: results from an observing system simulation experiment with GEMS geostationary satellite observations
Jianing Dai, Guy P. Brasseur, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Maria Kanakidou, Kun Qu, Yijuan Zhang, Hongliang Zhang, and Tao Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14127–14158,Short summary
In this study, we used a regional chemical transport model to characterize the different parameters of atmospheric oxidative capacity in recent chemical environments in China. These parameters include the production and destruction rates of ozone and other oxidants, the ozone production efficiency, the OH reactivity, and the length of the reaction chain responsible for the formation of ozone and ROx. They are also affected by the aerosol burden in the atmosphere.
Zhenze Liu, Oliver Wild, Ruth M. Doherty, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13755–13768,Short summary
We investigate the impact of net-zero policies on surface ozone pollution in China. A chemistry–climate model is used to simulate ozone changes driven by local and external emissions, methane, and warmer climates. A deep learning model is applied to generate more robust ozone projection, and we find that the benefits of net-zero policies may be overestimated with the chemistry–climate model. Nevertheless, it is clear that the policies can still substantially reduce ozone pollution in future.
Gemma Purser, Mathew R. Heal, Edward J. Carnell, Stephen Bathgate, Julia Drewer, James I. L. Morison, and Massimo Vieno
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13713–13733,Short summary
Forest expansion is a ″net-zero“ pathway, but change in land cover alters air quality in many ways. This study combines tree planting suitability data with UK measured emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds to simulate spatial and temporal changes in atmospheric composition for planting scenarios of four species. Decreases in fine particulate matter are relatively larger than increases in ozone, which may indicate a net benefit of tree planting on human health aspects of air quality.
Wei Li, Yuxuan Wang, Xueying Liu, Ehsan Soleimanian, Travis Griggs, James Flynn, and Paul Walter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13685–13699,Short summary
This study examined high offshore ozone events in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, using boat data and WRF–CAMx modeling during the TRACER-AQ 2021 field campaign. On average, high ozone is caused by chemistry due to the regional transport of volatile organic compounds and downwind advection of NOx from the ship channel. Two case studies show advection of ozone can be another process leading to high ozone, and accurate wind prediction is crucial for air quality forecasting in coastal areas.
Richard G. Derwent, David D. Parrish, and Ian C. Faloona
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13613–13623,Short summary
Elevated tropospheric ozone concentrations driven by anthropogenic precursor emissions are a world-wide health and environmental concern; however, this issue lacks a generally accepted understanding of the scientific issues. Here, we briefly outline the elements required to conduct an international assessment process to establish a conceptual model of the underpinning science and motivate international policy forums for regulating ozone production over hemispheric and global scales.
Nicola J. Warwick, Alex T. Archibald, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Fiona M. O'Connor, John A. Pyle, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13451–13467,Short summary
A chemistry–climate model has been used to explore the atmospheric response to changes in emissions of hydrogen and other species associated with a shift from fossil fuel to hydrogen use. Leakage of hydrogen results in indirect global warming, offsetting greenhouse gas emission reductions from reduced fossil fuel use. To maximise the benefit of hydrogen as an energy source, hydrogen leakage and emissions of methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides should be minimised.
Susanna Strada, Andrea Pozzer, Graziano Giuliani, Erika Coppola, Fabien Solmon, Xiaoyan Jiang, Alex Guenther, Efstratios Bourtsoukidis, Dominique Serça, Jonathan Williams, and Filippo Giorgi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13301–13327,Short summary
Water deficit modifies emissions of isoprene, an aromatic compound released by plants that influences the production of an air pollutant such as ozone. Numerical modelling shows that, during the warmest and driest summers, isoprene decreases between −20 and −60 % over the Euro-Mediterranean region, while near-surface ozone only diminishes by a few percent. Decreases in isoprene emissions not only happen under dry conditions, but also could occur after prolonged or repeated water deficits.
Guowen He, Cheng He, Haofan Wang, Xiao Lu, Chenglei Pei, Xiaonuan Qiu, Chenxi Liu, Yiming Wang, Nanxi Liu, Jinpu Zhang, Lei Lei, Yiming Liu, Haichao Wang, Tao Deng, Qi Fan, and Shaojia Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13107–13124,Short summary
We analyze nighttime ozone in the lower boundary layer (up to 500 m) from the 2017–2019 measurements at the Canton Tower and the WRF-CMAQ model. We identify a strong ability of the residual layer to store daytime ozone in the convective mixing layer, investigate the chemical and meteorological factors controlling nighttime ozone in the residual layer, and quantify the contribution of nighttime ozone in the residual layer to both the nighttime and the following day’s surface ozone air quality.
Clara M. Nussbaumer, Horst Fischer, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12651–12669,Short summary
Ozone is a greenhouse gas and contributes to the earth’s radiative energy budget and therefore to global warming. This effect is the largest in the upper troposphere. In this study, we investigate the processes controlling ozone formation and the sensitivity to its precursors in the upper tropical troposphere based on model simulations by the ECHAM5/MESSy2 Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. We find that NO𝑥 emissions from lightning most importantly affect ozone chemistry at these altitudes.
Alba Badia, Veronica Vidal, Sergi Ventura, Roger Curcoll, Ricard Segura, and Gara Villalba
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10751–10774,Short summary
Improving air quality is a top priority in urban areas. In this study, we used an air quality model to analyse the air quality changes occurring over the metropolitan area of Barcelona and other rural areas affected by transport of the atmospheric plume from the city during mobility restrictions. Our results show that mitigation strategies intended to reduce O3 should be designed according to the local meteorology, air transport, and particular ozone chemistry of the urban area.
Herizo Narivelo, Paul David Hamer, Virginie Marécal, Luke Surl, Tjarda Roberts, Sophie Pelletier, Béatrice Josse, Jonathan Guth, Mickaël Bacles, Simon Warnach, Thomas Wagner, Stefano Corradini, Giuseppe Salerno, and Lorenzo Guerrieri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10533–10561,Short summary
Volcanic emissions emit large quantities of gases and primary aerosols that can play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. We present a study of the fate of volcanic bromine emissions from the eruption of Mount Etna around Christmas 2018. Using a numerical model and satellite observations, we analyse the impact of the volcanic plume and how it modifies the composition of the air over the whole Mediterranean basin, in particular on tropospheric ozone through the bromine-explosion cycle.
Glenn-Michael Oomen, Jean-François Müller, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Isabelle De Smedt, Thomas Blumenstock, Rigel Kivi, Maria Makarova, Mathias Palm, Amelie Röhling, Yao Té, Corinne Vigouroux, Martina M. Friedrich, Udo Frieß, François Hendrick, Alexis Merlaud, Ankie Piters, Andreas Richter, Michel Van Roozendael, and Thomas Wagner
Natural emissions from vegetation have a profound impact on air quality for their role in the formation of harmful tropospheric ozone and organic aerosols, yet these emissions are highly uncertain. In this study, we quantify emissions of organic gases over Europe using high-quality satellite measurements of formaldehyde. These satellite observations suggest that emissions from vegetation are much higher than predicted by models, especially in southern Europe.
Michael P. Cartwright, Richard J. Pope, Jeremy J. Harrison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Chris Wilson, Wuhu Feng, David P. Moore, and Parvadha Suntharalingam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10035–10056,Short summary
A 3-D chemical transport model, TOMCAT, is used to simulate global atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (OCS) distribution. Modelled OCS compares well with satellite observations of OCS from limb-sounding satellite observations. Model simulations also compare adequately with surface and atmospheric observations and suitably capture the seasonality of OCS and background concentrations.
Luana S. Basso, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Graciela Tejada, Henrique L. G. Cassol, Egídio Arai, Mathew Williams, T. Luke Smallman, Wouter Peters, Stijn Naus, John B. Miller, and Manuel Gloor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9685–9723,Short summary
The Amazon’s carbon balance may have changed due to forest degradation, deforestation and warmer climate. We used an atmospheric model and atmospheric CO2 observations to quantify Amazonian carbon emissions (2010–2018). The region was a small carbon source to the atmosphere, mostly due to fire emissions. Forest uptake compensated for ~ 50 % of the fire emissions, meaning that the remaining forest is still a small carbon sink. We found no clear evidence of weakening carbon uptake over the period.
Rui Zhu, Zhaojun Tang, Xiaokang Chen, Xiong Liu, and Zhe Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9745–9763,Short summary
Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and surface O3 observations are used to investigate the changes in tropospheric O3 in the USA and Europe in 2005–2020. The surface-based assimilations show limited changes in surface and tropospheric column O3. The OMI-based assimilations show larger decreases in tropospheric O3 columns in 2010–2014, related to a decline in free-tropospheric NO2. Analysis suggests limited impacts of local emissions decline on tropospheric O3 over the USA and Europe in 2005–2020.
R. Bradley Pierce, Monica Harkey, Allen Lenzen, Lee M. Cronce, Jason A. Otkin, Jonathan L. Case, David S. Henderson, Zac Adelman, Tsengel Nergui, and Christopher R. Hain
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9613–9635,Short summary
We evaluate two high-resolution model simulations with different meteorological inputs but identical chemistry and anthropogenic emissions, with the goal of identifying a model configuration best suited for characterizing air quality in locations where lake breezes commonly affect local air quality along the Lake Michigan shoreline. This analysis complements other studies in evaluating the impact of meteorological inputs and parameterizations on air quality in a complex environment.
Shreta Ghimire, Zachary J. Lebo, Shane Murphy, Stefan Rahimi, and Trang Tran
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9413–9438,Short summary
High wintertime ozone levels have occurred often in recent years in mountain basins with oil and gas production facilities. Photochemical modeling of ozone production serves as a basis for understanding the mechanism by which it occurs and for predictive capability. We present photochemical model simulations of ozone formation and accumulation in the Upper Green River basin, Wyoming, demonstrating the model's ability to simulate wintertime ozone and the sensitivity of ozone to its precursors.
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivsky, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
The carbon dioxide content of the Earth atmosphere is increasing due to human emissions from burning of fossil fuels, causing global climate change. The strength of the fossil-fuel emissions is estimated by inventories based on energy data, but independent validation of these inventories has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we investigate the potential to validate inventories based on measurements of small changes in the atmospheric oxygen content.
Adedayo R. Adedeji, Stephen J. Andrews, Matthew J. Rowlinson, Mathew J. Evans, Alastair C. Lewis, Shigeru Hashimoto, Hitoshi Mukai, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Yasunori Tohjima, and Takuya Saito
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9229–9244,Short summary
We use the GEOS-Chem model to interpret observations of CO, C2H6, C3H8, NOx, NOy and O3 made from Hateruma Island in 2018. The model captures many synoptic-scale events and the seasonality of most pollutants at the site but underestimates C2H6 and C3H8 during the winter. These underestimates are unlikely to be reconciled by increases in biomass burning emissions but could be reconciled by increasing the Asian anthropogenic source of C2H6 and C3H8 by factors of around 2 and 3, respectively.
Bryan K. Place, William T. Hutzell, K. Wyat Appel, Sara Farrell, Lukas Valin, Benjamin N. Murphy, Karl M. Seltzer, Golam Sarwar, Christine Allen, Ivan R. Piletic, Emma L. D'Ambro, Emily Saunders, Heather Simon, Ana Torres-Vasquez, Jonathan Pleim, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Matthew M. Coggon, Lu Xu, William R. Stockwell, and Havala O. T. Pye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9173–9190,Short summary
Ground-level ozone is a pollutant with adverse human health and ecosystem effects. Air quality models allow scientists to understand the chemical production of ozone and demonstrate impacts of air quality management plans. In this work, the role of multiple systems in ozone production was investigated for the northeastern US in summer. Model updates to chemical reaction rates and monoterpene chemistry were most influential in decreasing predicted ozone and improving agreement with observations.
Yongliang She, Jingyi Li, Xiaopu Lyu, Hai Guo, Momei Qin, Xiaodong Xie, Kangjia Gong, Fei Ye, Jianjiong Mao, Lin Huang, and Jianlin Hu
The evaluation of predicted VOC in current chemical transport model is limited in China due to the lack of routine measurements at multiple sites. In this study, we use multi-site VOC measurements to evaluate the CMAQ model predicted VOC and assess the impacts of VOC bias on O3 simulation. Our results demonstrate that current modelling setups and emission inventories are likely to underpredict VOC concentrations, and this underprediction of VOC contributes to lower O3 predictions in China.
Alfred W. Mayhew, Peter M. Edwards, and Jaqueline F. Hamilton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8473–8485,Short summary
Isoprene nitrates are chemical species commonly found in the atmosphere that are important for their impacts on air quality and climate. This paper investigates modelled changes to daytime isoprene nitrate concentrations resulting from changes in NOx and O3. The results highlight the complex, nonlinear chemistry of this group of species under typical conditions for megacities such as Beijing, with many species showing increased concentrations when NOx is decreased and/or ozone is increased.
Alice Drinkwater, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Tim Arnold, Xin Lan, Sylvia E. Michel, Robert Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8429–8452,Short summary
Changes in atmospheric methane over the last few decades are largely unexplained. Previous studies have proposed different hypotheses to explain short-term changes in atmospheric methane. We interpret observed changes in atmospheric methane and stable isotope source signatures (2004–2020). We argue that changes over this period are part of a large-scale shift from high-northern-latitude thermogenic energy emissions to tropical biogenic emissions, particularly from North Africa and South America.
Claudio A. Belis and Rita Van Dingenen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8225–8240,Short summary
The study assesses the influence that abating emissions in the rest of the world have on exposure and mortality due to ozone and fine particulate matter in the region covered by the Gothenburg protocol (UNECE, mainly Europe and North America). To that end, the impacts of pollutants derived from different geographic areas and anthropogenic sources are analysed in a series of scenarios including measures to abate air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions with different levels of ambition.
Xuewei Hou, Oliver Wild, Bin Zhu, and James Lee
In response to the climate crisis, many countries have committed to net zero in a certain future year. The impacts of net zero scenario on tropospheric O3 are less well studied and remain unclear. In this study, we quantified the changes of tropospheric O3 budgets, spatiotemporal distributions of future surface O3 in East Asia and regional O3 source contributions for 2060 under a net zero scenario, using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and online O3 tagging methods.
Ruosi Liang, Yuzhong Zhang, Wei Chen, Peixuan Zhang, Jingran Liu, Cuihong Chen, Huiqin Mao, Guofeng Shen, Zhen Qu, Zichong Chen, Minqiang Zhou, Pucai Wang, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Alba Lorente, Joannes D. Maasakkers, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8039–8057,Short summary
We compare and evaluate East Asian methane emissions inferred from different satellite observations (GOSAT and TROPOMI). The results show discrepancies over northern India and eastern China. Independent ground-based observations are more consistent with TROPOMI-derived emissions in northern India and GOSAT-derived emissions in eastern China.
Marc Guevara, Hervé Petetin, Oriol Jorba, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jeroen Kuenen, Ingrid Super, Claire Granier, Thierno Doumbia, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Liu, Robin D. Lamboll, Sabine Schindlbacher, Bradley Matthews, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8081–8101,Short summary
This study provides an intercomparison of European 2020 emission changes derived from official inventories, which are reported by countries under the framework of several international conventions and directives, and non-official near-real-time estimates, the use of which has significantly grown since the COVID-19 outbreak. The results of the work are used to produce recommendations on how best to approach and make use of near-real-time emissions for modelling and monitoring applications.
Seyed Omid Nabavi, Theodoros Christoudias, Yiannis Proestos, Christos Fountoukis, Huda Al-Sulaiti, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7719–7739,Short summary
The objective of our study is to comprehensively assess the timing of radioactive material transportation and deposition, along with the associated population exposure in the designated region. We employed diverse meteorological inputs, emission specifics, and simulation codes, aiming to quantify the level of uncertainty.
Daniel J. Varon, Daniel J. Jacob, Benjamin Hmiel, Ritesh Gautam, David R. Lyon, Mark Omara, Melissa Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Drew Pendergrass, Hannah Nesser, Zhen Qu, Zachary R. Barkley, Natasha L. Miles, Scott J. Richardson, Kenneth J. Davis, Sudhanshu Pandey, Xiao Lu, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Joannes D. Maasakkers, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7503–7520,Short summary
We use TROPOMI satellite observations to quantify weekly methane emissions from the US Permian oil and gas basin from May 2018 to October 2020. We find that Permian emissions are highly variable, with diverse economic and activity drivers. The most important drivers during our study period were new well development and natural gas price. Permian methane intensity averaged 4.6 % and decreased by 1 % per year.
Alison L. Redington, Alistair J. Manning, Stephan Henne, Francesco Graziosi, Luke M. Western, Jgor Arduini, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Michela Maione, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Joseph Pitt, Stefan Reimann, Matthew Rigby, Peter K. Salameh, Peter G. Simmonds, T. Gerard Spain, Kieran Stanley, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7383–7398,Short summary
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were used in Europe pre-1990, damaging the stratospheric ozone layer. Legislation has controlled production and use, and global emissions have decreased sharply. The global rate of decline in CFC-11 recently slowed and was partly attributed to illegal emission in eastern China. This study concludes that emissions of CFC-11 in western Europe have not contributed to the unexplained part of the global increase in CFC-11 observed in the last decade.
Victoria A. Flood, Kimberly Strong, Cynthia H. Whaley, Kaley A. Walker, Thomas Blumenstock, James W. Hannigan, Johan Mellqvist, Justus Notholt, Mathias Palm, Amelie N. Röhling, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Makoto Deushi, Srdjan Dobricic, Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Wanmin Gong, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Manu A. Thomas, Svetlana Tsyro, and Steven Turnock
It is important to understand the composition of the Arctic atmosphere and how it is changing. Atmospheric models provide simulations that can inform policy. This study examines simulations of CH4, CO, and O3 by 11 models. Model performance is assessed by comparing results matched in space and time to measurements from five high-latitude ground-based infrared spectrometers. This work finds that models are generally underpredicting the concentrations of these gases in the Arctic troposphere.
Peiyang Cheng, Arastoo Pour-Biazar, Yuling Wu, Shi Kuang, Richard T. McNider, and William J. Koshak
Lightning-induced nitrogen monoxide (LNO) emission can be estimated from geostationary satellite observations. The present study uses the LNO emission estimates derived from geostationary satellite observations in an air quality modeling system to investigate the impact of LNO to air quality. Results indicate that significant ozone increase could be due to long-distance chemical transport, lightning activity in the upwind direction, and the mixing of high LNO (or ozone) plumes.
Zhendong Wu, Alex Vermeulen, Yousuke Sawa, Ute Karstens, Wouter Peters, Remco de Kok, Xin Lan, Yasuyuki Nagai, Akinori Ogi, and Oksana Tarasova
This study focuses on exploring the differences in calculating global surface CO2 and its growth rate, considering the impact of analysis methodologies and site selection. Our study reveals that the current global CO2 network has a good capacity to represent global surface CO2 and its growth rate and trends in atmospheric CO2 mass changes, although small differences exist in different analyses due to the impact of methodology and site selection.
Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, Joël Thanwerdas, Adrien Martinez, Jean-Daniel Paris, Toshinobu Machida, Motoki Sasakawa, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Xin Lan, Rona L. Thompson, Espen Sollum, and Mikhail Arshinov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6457–6485,Short summary
Here, an inverse modelling approach is applied to estimate CH4 sources and sinks in the Arctic from 2008 to 2019. We study the magnitude, seasonal patterns and trends from different sources during recent years. We also assess how the current observation network helps to constrain fluxes. We find that constraints are only significant for North America and, to a lesser extent, West Siberia, where the observation network is relatively dense. We find no clear trend over the period of inversion.
Ruijun Dang, Daniel J. Jacob, Viral Shah, Sebastian D. Eastham, Thibaud M. Fritz, Loretta J. Mickley, Tianjia Liu, Yi Wang, and Jun Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6271–6284,Short summary
We use the GEOS-Chem model to better understand the magnitude and trend in free tropospheric NO2 over the contiguous US. Model underestimate of background NO2 is largely corrected by considering aerosol nitrate photolysis. Increase in aircraft emissions affects satellite retrievals by altering the NO2 shape factor, and this effect is expected to increase in future. We show the importance of properly accounting for the free tropospheric background in interpreting NO2 observations from space.
Maria Rosa Russo, Brian John Kerridge, Nathan Luke Abraham, James Keeble, Barry Graham Latter, Richard Siddans, James Weber, Paul Thomas Griffiths, John Adrian Pyle, and Alexander Thomas Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6169–6196,Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important component of the Earth system as it can affect both climate and air quality. In this work we use observed tropospheric ozone derived from satellite observations and compare it to tropospheric ozone from model simulations. Our aim is to investigate recent changes (2005–2018) in tropospheric ozone in the North Atlantic region and to understand what factors are driving such changes.
Zachary Barkley, Kenneth Davis, Natasha Miles, Scott Richardson, Aijun Deng, Benjamin Hmiel, David Lyon, and Thomas Lauvaux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6127–6144,Short summary
Using methane monitoring instruments attached to towers, we measure methane concentrations and quantify methane emissions coming from the Marcellus and Permian oil and gas basins. In the Marcellus, emissions were 3 times higher than the state inventory across the entire monitoring period. In the Permian, we see a sharp decline in emissions aligning with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tower observational networks can be utilized in other basins for long-term monitoring of emissions.
Ling Huang, Jiong Fang, Jiaqiang Liao, Yarwood Greg, Hui Chen, Yangjun Wang, and Li Li
Surface ozone concentrations have emerged as a major environmental issue in China. Although control strategies aimed at reducing NOx emissions from conventional combustion sources are widely recognized, soil NOx emissions have received little attention. The impact of soil NO emissions on ground-level ozone concentration is yet to be evaluated. In this study, we estimated the soil NO emissions and evaluated its impact on ozone formation in China.
Yao Ge, Massimo Vieno, David S. Stevenson, Peter Wind, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6083–6112,Short summary
The sensitivity of fine particles and reactive N and S species to reductions in precursor emissions is investigated using the EMEP MSC-W (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West) atmospheric chemistry transport model. This study reveals that the individual emissions reduction has multiple and geographically varying co-benefits and small disbenefits on different species, demonstrating the importance of prioritizing regional emissions controls.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Marc Shapiro, Lynnette Dray, and Marc Stettler
Emissions from aircraft contribute to climate change and degrade air quality. We describe an up-to-date 4D emissions inventory of global aviation from 2019 to 2021 based on actual flown trajectories. In 2019, 40.2 million flights collectively travelled 61 billion kilometres using 283 Tg of fuel. Long-haul flights were responsible for 43 % of CO2. The emissions inventory is made available for use in future studies to evaluate the negative externalities arising from global aviation.
Scott Archer-Nicholls, Rachel Allen, Nathan L. Abraham, Paul T. Griffiths, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5801–5813,Short summary
The nitrate radical is a major oxidant at nighttime, but much less is known about it than about the other oxidants ozone and OH. We use Earth system model calculations to show how the nitrate radical has changed in abundance from 1850–2014 and to 2100 under a range of different climate and emission scenarios. Depending on the emissions and climate scenario, significant increases are projected with implications for the oxidation of volatile organic compounds and the formation of fine aerosol.
Joanna E. Dyson, Lisa K. Whalley, Eloise J. Slater, Robert Woodward-Massey, Chunxiang Ye, James D. Lee, Freya Squires, James R. Hopkins, Rachel E. Dunmore, Marvin Shaw, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Alastair C. Lewis, Stephen D. Worrall, Asan Bacak, Archit Mehra, Thomas J. Bannan, Hugh Coe, Carl J. Percival, Bin Ouyang, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Roderic L. Jones, Leigh R. Crilley, Louisa J. Kramer, W. Joe F. Acton, William J. Bloss, Supattarachai Saksakulkrai, Jingsha Xu, Zongbo Shi, Roy M. Harrison, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Yele Sun, Weiqi Xu, Siyao Yue, Lianfang Wei, Pingqing Fu, Xinming Wang, Stephen R. Arnold, and Dwayne E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5679–5697,Short summary
The hydroxyl (OH) and closely coupled hydroperoxyl (HO2) radicals are vital for their role in the removal of atmospheric pollutants. In less polluted regions, atmospheric models over-predict HO2 concentrations. In this modelling study, the impact of heterogeneous uptake of HO2 onto aerosol surfaces on radical concentrations and the ozone production regime in Beijing in the summertime is investigated, and the implications for emissions policies across China are considered.
Pengwei Li, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Su Li, Ke Li, Pinya Wang, Baojie Li, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5403–5417,Short summary
We use a novel technique that can attribute O3 to precursors to investigate O3 changes in the United States during 1995–2019. We found that the US domestic energy and surface transportation emission reductions are primarily responsible for the O3 decrease in summer. In winter, factors such as nitrogen oxide emission reduction in the context of its inhibition of ozone production, increased aviation and shipping activities, and large-scale circulation changes contribute to the O3 increases.
Glen Chua, Vaishali Naik, and Larry Wayne Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4955–4975,Short summary
The hydroxyl radical (OH) is an atmospheric
detergent, removing air pollutants and greenhouse gases like methane from the atmosphere. Thus, understanding how it is changing and responding to its various drivers is important for air quality and climate. We found that OH has increased by about 5 % globally from 1980 to 2014 in our model, mostly driven by increasing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. This suggests potential climate tradeoffs from air quality policies solely targeting NOx emissions.
Meghna Soni, Rolf Sander, Lokesh K. Sahu, Domenico Taraborrelli, Pengfei Liu, Ankit Patel, Imran A. Girach, Andrea Pozzer, Sachin S. Gunthe, and Narendra Ojha
The study presents the implementation of comprehensive multiphase chlorine chemistry in the box model CAABA/MECCA. Simulations for contrasting urban environments of Asia and Europe highlight the significant impacts of chlorine on atmospheric oxidation capacity and composition. Chemical processes governing the production and loss of chlorine-containing species have been discussed. The updated chemical mechanism will be useful to interpret field measurements and for future air quality studies.
Jinlong Ma, Shengqiang Zhu, Siyu Wang, Peng Wang, Jianmin Chen, and Hongliang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4311–4325,Short summary
An updated version of the CMAQ model with biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from MEGAN was applied to study the impacts of different land cover inputs on O3 and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in China. The estimated BVOC emissions ranged from 25.42 to 37.39 Tg using different leaf area index (LAI) and land cover (LC) inputs. Those differences further induced differences of 4.8–6.9 ppb in O3 concentrations and differences of 5.3–8.4 µg m−3 in SOA concentrations in China.
Chen Gu, Lei Zhang, Zidie Xu, Sijia Xia, Yutong Wang, Li Li, Zeren Wang, Qiuyue Zhao, Hanying Wang, and Yu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4247–4269,Short summary
We demonstrated the development of a high-resolution emission inventory and its application to evaluate the effectiveness of emission control actions, by incorporating the improved methodology, the best available data, and air quality modeling. We show that substantial efforts for emission controls indeed played an important role in air quality improvement even with worsened meteorological conditions and that the contributions of individual measures to emission reduction were greatly changing.
Nadia K. Colombi, Daniel J. Jacob, Laura Hyesung Yang, Shixian Zhai, Viral Shah, Stuart K. Grange, Robert M. Yantosca, Soontae Kim, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4031–4044,Short summary
Surface ozone, detrimental to human and ecosystem health, is very high and increasing in South Korea. Using a global model of the atmosphere, we found that emissions from South Korea and China contribute equally to the high ozone observed. We found that in the absence of all anthropogenic emissions over East Asia, ozone is still very high, implying that the air quality standard in South Korea is not practically achievable unless this background external to East Asia can be decreased.
Yifan Wen, Shaojun Zhang, Ye Wu, and Jiming Hao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3819–3828,Short summary
This study established a high-resolution vehicular NH3 emission inventory for mainland China to quantify the absolute value and relative importance of on-road NH3 emissions for different regions, seasons and population densities. Our results indicate that the significant role of on-road NH3 emissions in populated urban areas may have been underappreciated, suggesting the control of vehicular NH3 emission can be a feasible and cost-effective way of mitigating haze pollution in urban areas.
Lei Shu, Lei Zhu, Juseon Bak, Peter Zoogman, Han Han, Song Liu, Xicheng Li, Shuai Sun, Juan Li, Yuyang Chen, Dongchuan Pu, Xiaoxing Zuo, Weitao Fu, Xin Yang, and Tzung-May Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3731–3748,Short summary
We quantify the benefit of multisource observations (GEMS, LEO satellite, and surface) on ozone simulations in Asia. Data assimilation improves the monitoring of exceedance, spatial pattern, and diurnal variation of surface ozone, with the regional mean bias reduced from −2.1 to −0.2 ppbv. Data assimilation also better represents ozone vertical distributions in the middle to upper troposphere at low latitudes. Our results offer a valuable reference for future ozone simulations.
Archibald, A. T., Turnock, S. T., Griffiths, P. T., Cox, T., Derwent, R. G., Knote, C., and Shin, M.: On the changes in surface ozone over the twenty-first century: sensitivity to changes in surface temperature and chemical mechanisms: 21st century changes in surface ozone, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 378, 20190329, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0329, 2020.
Bishop, C. M.: Pattern recognition and machine learning, Springer Science+Business Media, Singapore, ISBN 978-0387-31073-2, 2006.
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001.
Ceppi, P. and Nowack, P.: Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2026290118, 2021.
Chang, L., Xu, J., Tie, X., and Gao, W.: The impact of Climate Change on the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the related ozone pollution in Shanghai, China, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53103-7, 2019.
Chen, X., Jiang, Z., Shen, Y., Li, R., Fu, Y., Liu, J., Han, H., Liao, H., Cheng, X., Jones, D. B. A., Worden, H., and Abad, G. G.: Chinese Regulations Are Working – Why Is Surface Ozone Over Industrialized Areas Still High? Applying Lessons From Northeast US Air Quality Evolution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL092816, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092816, 2021.
Chen, Z., Liu, J., Cheng, X., Yang, M., and Wang, H.: Positive and negative influences of typhoons on tropospheric ozone over southern China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16911–16923, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16911-2021, 2021.
Chinese State Council: Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control (in Chinese), http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-09/12/content_2486773.htm (last access: 24 November 2021), 2013.
Ding, Y. and Chan, J. C. L.: The East Asian summer monsoon: An overview, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 89, 117–142, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0125-z, 2005.
Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., Shindell, D. T., Zeng, G., MacKenzie, I. A., Collins, W. J., Fiore, A. M., Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Hess, P., Derwent, R. G., and Keating, T. J.: Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi-model study, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 3744–3763, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50266, 2013.
Dormann, C. F., Elith, J., Bacher, S., Buchmann, C., Carl, G., Carré, G., Marquéz, J. R. G., Gruber, B., Lafourcade, B., Leitão, P. J., Münkemüller, T., Mcclean, C., Osborne, P. E., Reineking, B., Schröder, B., Skidmore, A. K., Zurell, D., and Lautenbach, S.: Collinearity: A review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance, Ecography, 36, 27–46, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x, 2013.
Finlayson-Pitts, B. and Pitts, J.: Chemistry of the upper and lower atmosphere: theory, experiments, and applications, Academic Press, San Diego, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-257060-5.X5000-X, 2000.
Gao, M., Gao, J., Zhu, B., Kumar, R., Lu, X., Song, S., Zhang, Y., Jia, B., Wang, P., Beig, G., Hu, J., Ying, Q., Zhang, H., Sherman, P., and McElroy, M. B.: Ozone pollution over China and India: seasonality and sources, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4399–4414, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4399-2020, 2020.
Grange, S. K., Carslaw, D. C., Lewis, A. C., Boleti, E., and Hueglin, C.: Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6223–6239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6223-2018, 2018.
Gu, Y., Li, K., Xu, J., Liao, H., and Zhou, G.: Observed dependence of surface ozone on increasing temperature in Shanghai, China, Atmos. Environ., 221, 117108, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.117108, 2020.
Guenther, A. B., Zimmerman, P. R., Harley, P. C., Monson, R. K., and Fall, R.: Isoprene and monoterpene emission rate variability: model evaluations and sensitivity analyses, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 12609–12617, https://doi.org/10.1029/93jd00527, 1993.
Han, H., Liu, J., Shu, L., Wang, T., and Yuan, H.: Local and synoptic meteorological influences on daily variability in summertime surface ozone in eastern China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 203–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-203-2020, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6 (last access: 11 November 2021), 2018a.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47 (last access: 11 November 2021), 2018b.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hua, W., Chen, Z. M., Jie, C. Y., Kondo, Y., Hofzumahaus, A., Takegawa, N., Chang, C. C., Lu, K. D., Miyazaki, Y., Kita, K., Wang, H. L., Zhang, Y. H., and Hu, M.: Atmospheric hydrogen peroxide and organic hydroperoxides during PRIDE-PRD'06, China: their concentration, formation mechanism and contribution to secondary aerosols, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 6755–6773, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-6755-2008, 2008.
Jacob, D. J.: Heterogeneous chemistry and tropospheric ozone, Atmos. Environ., 34, 2131–2159, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00462-8, 2000.
Jiang, Y. C., Zhao, T. L., Liu, J., Xu, X. D., Tan, C. H., Cheng, X. H., Bi, X. Y., Gan, J. B., You, J. F., and Zhao, S. Z.: Why does surface ozone peak before a typhoon landing in southeast China?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13331–13338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13331-2015, 2015.
Kuhn-Régnier, A., Voulgarakis, A., Nowack, P., Forkel, M., Prentice, I. C., and Harrison, S. P.: The importance of antecedent vegetation and drought conditions as global drivers of burnt area, Biogeosciences, 18, 3861–3879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021, 2021.
Lefohn, A. S., Malley, C. S., Smith, L., Wells, B., Hazucha, M., Simon, H., Naik, V., Mills, G., Schultz, M. G., Paoletti, E., De Marco, A., Xu, X., Zhang, L., Wang, T., Neufeld, H. S., Musselman, R. C., Tarasick, D., Brauer, M., Feng, Z., Tang, H., Kobayashi, K., Sicard, P., Solberg, S., and Gerosa, G.: Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research, Elementa, 6, 27, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.279, 2018.
Lelieveld, J., Evans, J. S., Fnais, M., Giannadaki, D., and Pozzer, A.: The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale, Nature, 525, 367–371, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15371, 2015.
Li, K., Chen, L., Ying, F., White, S. J., Jang, C., Wu, X., Gao, X., Hong, S., Shen, J., Azzi, M., and Cen, K.: Meteorological and chemical impacts on ozone formation: A case study in Hangzhou, China, Atmos. Res., 196, 40–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.06.003, 2017.
Li, K., Jacob, D. J., Liao, H., Shen, L., Zhang, Q., and Bates, K. H.: Anthropogenic drivers of 2013–2017 trends in summer surface ozone in China, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 422–427, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812168116, 2019a.
Li, K., Jacob, D. J., Liao, H., Zhu, J., Shah, V., Shen, L., Bates, K. H., Zhang, Q., and Zhai, S.: A two-pollutant strategy for improving ozone and particulate air quality in China, Nat. Geosci., 12, 906–910, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0464-x, 2019b.
Li, K., Jacob, D. J., Shen, L., Lu, X., De Smedt, I., and Liao, H.: Increases in surface ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2019: Anthropogenic and meteorological influences, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11423–11433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11423-2020, 2020.
Liu, Y. and Wang, T.: Worsening urban ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2017 – Part 2: The effects of emission changes and implications for multi-pollutant control, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6323–6337, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6323-2020, 2020.
Lu, X., Zhang, L., and Shen, L.: Meteorology and Climate Influences on Tropospheric Ozone: a Review of Natural Sources, Chemistry, and Transport Patterns, Curr. Pollut. Reports, 5, 238–260, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-019-00118-3, 2019a.
Lu, X., Zhang, L., Chen, Y., Zhou, M., Zheng, B., Li, K., Liu, Y., Lin, J., Fu, T.-M., and Zhang, Q.: Exploring 2016–2017 surface ozone pollution over China: source contributions and meteorological influences, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8339–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8339-2019, 2019b.
Ma, M., Gao, Y., Wang, Y., Zhang, S., Leung, L. R., Liu, C., Wang, S., Zhao, B., Chang, X., Su, H., Zhang, T., Sheng, L., Yao, X., and Gao, H.: Substantial ozone enhancement over the North China Plain from increased biogenic emissions due to heat waves and land cover in summer 2017, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12195–12207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12195-2019, 2019.
Mansfield, L. A., Nowack, P. J., Kasoar, M., Everitt, R. G., Collins, W. J., and Voulgarakis, A.: Predicting global patterns of long-term climate change from short-term simulations using machine learning, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 44, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00148-5, 2020.
McDonald, G. C.: Ridge regression, WIREs Comput. Stat., 1, 93–100, https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.14, 2009.
Meehl, G. A., Tebaldi, C., Tilmes, S., Lamarque, J. F., Bates, S., Pendergrass, A., and Lombardozzi, D.: Future heat waves and surface ozone, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 064004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc, 2018.
Menze, B. H., Kelm, B. M., Masuch, R., Himmelreich, U., Bachert, P., Petrich, W., and Hamprecht, F. A.: A comparison of random forest and its Gini importance with standard chemometric methods for the feature selection and classification of spectral data, BMC Bioinformatics, 10, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2105-10-213, 2009.
MEP: Technical regulation for ambient air quality assessment (on trial) (HJ 663-2013) (in Chinese), https://www.mee.gov.cn/ywgz/fgbz/bz/bzwb/jcffbz/201309/t20130925_260809.shtml (last access: 24 November 2021), 2013.
Monks, P. S., Archibald, A. T., Colette, A., Cooper, O., Coyle, M., Derwent, R., Fowler, D., Granier, C., Law, K. S., Mills, G. E., Stevenson, D. S., Tarasova, O., Thouret, V., Von Schneidemesser, E., Sommariva, R., Wild, O., and Williams, M. L.: Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8889–8973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8889-2015, 2015.
Ning, G., Yim, S. H. L., Yang, Y., Gu, Y., and Dong, G.: Modulations of synoptic and climatic changes on ozone pollution and its health risks in mountain-basin areas, Atmos. Environ., 240, 117808, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117808, 2020.
Nowack, P., Braesicke, P., Haigh, J., Abraham, N. L., Pyle, J., and Voulgarakis, A.: Using machine learning to build temperature-based ozone parameterizations for climate sensitivity simulations, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 104016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae2be, 2018.
Nowack, P., Konstantinovskiy, L., Gardiner, H., and Cant, J.: Machine learning calibration of low-cost NO2 and PM10 sensors: non-linear algorithms and their impact on site transferability, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5637–5655, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5637-2021, 2021.
Otero, N., Sillmann, J., Mar, K. A., Rust, H. W., Solberg, S., Andersson, C., Engardt, M., Bergström, R., Bessagnet, B., Colette, A., Couvidat, F., Cuvelier, C., Tsyro, S., Fagerli, H., Schaap, M., Manders, A., Mircea, M., Briganti, G., Cappelletti, A., Adani, M., D'Isidoro, M., Pay, M.-T., Theobald, M., Vivanco, M. G., Wind, P., Ojha, N., Raffort, V., and Butler, T.: A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12269–12288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, 2018.
Ou, J., Yuan, Z., Zheng, J., Huang, Z., Shao, M., Li, Z., Huang, X., Guo, H., and Louie, P. K. K.: Ambient Ozone Control in a Photochemically Active Region: Short-Term Despiking or Long-Term Attainment?, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50, 5720–5728, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b00345, 2016.
Pu, X., Wang, T. J., Huang, X., Melas, D., Zanis, P., Papanastasiou, D. K., and Poupkou, A.: Enhanced surface ozone during the heat wave of 2013 in Yangtze River Delta region, China, Sci. Total Environ., 603–604, 807–816, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.056, 2017.
Qi, J., Zheng, B., Li, M., Yu, F., Chen, C., Liu, F., Zhou, X., Yuan, J., Zhang, Q., and He, K.: A high-resolution air pollutants emission inventory in 2013 for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China, Atmos. Environ., 170, 156–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.09.039, 2017.
Qu, K., Wang, X., Yan, Y., Shen, J., Xiao, T., Dong, H., Zeng, L., and Zhang, Y.: A comparative study to reveal the influence of typhoons on the transport, production and accumulation of O3 in the Pearl River Delta, China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11593–11612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11593-2021, 2021.
Scikit-learn: sklearn.metrics.r2_score, https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.metrics.r2_score.html, last access: 13 April 2022.
Shu, L., Xie, M., Wang, T., Gao, D., Chen, P., Han, Y., Li, S., Zhuang, B., and Li, M.: Integrated studies of a regional ozone pollution synthetically affected by subtropical high and typhoon system in the Yangtze River Delta region, China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15801–15819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15801-2016, 2016.
Shu, L., Wang, T., Han, H., Xie, M., Chen, P., Li, M., and Wu, H.: Summertime ozone pollution in the Yangtze River Delta of eastern China during 2013–2017: Synoptic impacts and source apportionment, Environ. Pollut., 257, 113631, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113631, 2020.
Sillman, S.: The relation between ozone, NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and polluted rural environments, Atmos. Environ., https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00345-8, 1999.
Song, C., Liu, B., Dai, Q., Li, H., and Mao, H.: Temperature dependence and source apportionment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at an urban site on the north China plain, Atmos. Environ., 207, 167–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.03.030, 2019.
Squire, O. J., Archibald, A. T., Griffiths, P. T., Jenkin, M. E., Smith, D., and Pyle, J. A.: Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5123–5143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5123-2015, 2015.
Stirnberg, R., Cermak, J., Kotthaus, S., Haeffelin, M., Andersen, H., Fuchs, J., Kim, M., Petit, J.-E., and Favez, O.: Meteorology-driven variability of air pollution (PM1) revealed with explainable machine learning, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3919-2021, 2021.
Tan, Z., Hofzumahaus, A., Lu, K., Brown, S. S., Holland, F., Huey, L. G., Kiendler-Scharr, A., Li, X., Liu, X., Ma, N., Min, K. E., Rohrer, F., Shao, M., Wahner, A., Wang, Y., Wiedensohler, A., Wu, Y., Wu, Z., Zeng, L., Zhang, Y., and Fuchs, H.: No Evidence for a Significant Impact of Heterogeneous Chemistry on Radical Concentrations in the North China Plain in Summer 2014, Environ. Sci. Technol., 54, 5973–5979, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c00525, 2020.
Wang, H., Wu, K., Liu, Y., Sheng, B., Lu, X., He, Y., Xie, J., Wang, H., and Fan, S.: Role of Heat Wave-Induced Biogenic VOC Enhancements in Persistent Ozone Episodes Formation in Pearl River Delta, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034317, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034317, 2021.
Wang, N., Lyu, X., Deng, X., Huang, X., Jiang, F., and Ding, A.: Aggravating O3 pollution due to NOx emission control in eastern China, Sci. Total Environ., 677, 732–744, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.388, 2019.
Wang, T., Xue, L., Brimblecombe, P., Lam, Y. F., Li, L., and Zhang, L.: Ozone pollution in China: A review of concentrations, meteorological influences, chemical precursors, and effects, Sci. Total Environ., 575, 1582–1596, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.081, 2017.
Wang, X. L.: Historical air quality data in China, https://quotsoft.net/air/, last access: 13 July 2021.
Wang, Y., Shen, L., Wu, S., Mickley, L., He, J., and Hao, J.: Sensitivity of surface ozone over China to 2000–2050 global changes of climate and emissions, Atmos. Environ., 75, 374–382, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.04.045, 2013.
Wei, X., Lam, K. S., Cao, C., Li, H., and He, J.: Dynamics of the Typhoon Haitang Related High Ozone Episode over Hong Kong, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 6089154, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/6089154, 2016.
Xie, X., Shao, M., Liu, Y., Lu, S., Chang, C. C., and Chen, Z. M.: Estimate of initial isoprene contribution to ozone formation potential in Beijing, China, Atmos. Environ., 42, 6000–6010, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.03.035, 2008.
Yang, L., Xie, D., Yuan, Z., Huang, Z., Wu, H., Han, J., Liu, L., and Jia, W.: Quantification of regional ozone pollution characteristics and its temporal evolution: Insights from identification of the impacts of meteorological conditions and emissions, Atmosphere, 12, 279, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020279, 2021.
Young, P. J., Archibald, A. T., Bowman, K. W., Lamarque, J.-F., Naik, V., Stevenson, D. S., Tilmes, S., Voulgarakis, A., Wild, O., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsøren, S. B., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Faluvegi, G., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., Plummer, D. A., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T., Skeie, R. B., Shindell, D. T., Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., and Zeng, G.: Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013.
Zhai, S., Jacob, D. J., Wang, X., Shen, L., Li, K., Zhang, Y., Gui, K., Zhao, T., and Liao, H.: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) trends in China, 2013–2018: separating contributions from anthropogenic emissions and meteorology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11031–11041, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11031-2019, 2019.
Zhang, J., Gao, Y., Luo, K., Leung, L. R., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., and Fan, J.: Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9861–9877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018, 2018.
Zhang, W., Zou, Y., Zheng, X. D., Wang, N., Yan, H., Chen, Y. P., Zhao, X. J., Ji, Z. P., Li, F., Mai, B. R., Yin, C. Q., Deng, T., Fan, L. Y., and Deng, X. J.: Characteristics of the vertical distribution of tropospheric ozone in late autumn at Yangjiang station in Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. Part I: Observed event, Atmos. Environ., 244, 117898, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117898, 2021.
Zhang, X., Fung, J. C. H., Lau, A. K. H., Hossain, M. S., Louie, P. K. K., and Huang, W.: Air quality and synergistic health effects of ozone and nitrogen oxides in response to China's integrated air quality control policies during 2015–2019, Chemosphere, 268, 129385, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.129385, 2021.
Zhao, X., Yu, B., Liu, Y., Chen, Z., Li, Q., Wang, C., and Wu, J.: Estimation of poverty using random forest regression with multi-source data: A case study in Bangladesh, Remote Sens., 11, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11040375, 2019.
Zheng, B., Tong, D., Li, M., Liu, F., Hong, C., Geng, G., Li, H., Li, X., Peng, L., Qi, J., Yan, L., Zhang, Y., Zhao, H., Zheng, Y., He, K., and Zhang, Q.: Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14095–14111, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14095-2018, 2018.
We use machine learning to quantify the meteorological drivers behind surface ozone variations in China between 2015 and 2019. Our novel approaches show improved performance when compared to previous analysis methods. We highlight that nonlinearity in driver relationships and the impacts of large-scale meteorological phenomena are key to understanding ozone pollution. Moreover, we find that almost half of the observed ozone trend between 2015 and 2019 might have been driven by meteorology.
We use machine learning to quantify the meteorological drivers behind surface ozone variations...