Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 May 2022
Research article |
| 03 May 2022
| 03 May 2022
An approach to sulfate geoengineering with surface emissions of carbonyl sulfide
Ilaria Quaglia
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy
Daniele Visioni
Sibley School for Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
Giovanni Pitari
Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy
Ben Kravitz
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
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Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
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Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
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Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
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Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
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Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Huiying Ren, Erol Cromwell, Ben Kravitz, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, 2022
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We used a deep learning method called long short-term memory (LSTM) to fill gaps in data collected by hydrologic monitoring networks. LSTM accounted for correlations in space and time and nonlinear trends in data. Compared to a traditional regression-based time-series method, LSTM performed comparably when filling gaps in data with smooth patterns, while it better captured highly dynamic patterns in data. Capturing such dynamics is critical for understanding dynamic complex system behaviors.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
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Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Debra K. Weisenstein, Daniele Visioni, Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandro Vattioni, Gabriel Chiodo, Thomas Peter, and David W. Keith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, 2022
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This paper explores a potential method of geoengineering that could be used to slow the rate of change of climate over decadal scales. We use three climate models to explore how injections of accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosol change the large-scale stratospheric particle size distribution and radiative forcing response for the chosen scenarios. Radiative forcing per unit sulfur injected and relative to the change in aerosol burden is larger with particulate than with SO2 injections.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
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Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
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Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Anton Laakso, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 93–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, 2022
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The use of different spatio-temporal sulfur injection strategies with different magnitudes to create an artificial reflective aerosol layer to cool the climate is studied using sectional and modal aerosol schemes in a climate model. There are significant differences in the results depending on the aerosol microphysical module used. Different spatio-temporal injection strategies have a significant impact on the magnitude and zonal distribution of radiative forcing and atmospheric dynamics.
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
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We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
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A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, and George Haller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8845–8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, 2021
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There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Paolo Tuccella, Giovanni Pitari, Valentina Colaiuda, Edoardo Raparelli, and Gabriele Curci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6875–6893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6875-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6875-2021, 2021
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We calculate the radiation-absorbing aerosol quantity in snow with a global chemical and transport atmospheric model, validated with global observations. The perturbation to snow albedo and related climatic impact are assessed. The resulting average radiative flux change in snow is 0.068 W m−2. Black carbon is a major contributor (+0.033 W m−2), followed by dust (+0.012 W m−2) and brown carbon (+0.0066 W m−2). The impact is also characterized by significant seasonal and geographical variability.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
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This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
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Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
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The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Bethany Sutherland, Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-228, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Through a cascade of physical mechanisms, a change in one location can trigger a response in a different location. These responses and the mechanisms that cause them are difficult to detect. Here we propose a method, using global climate models, to detect possible relationships between changes in one region and responses throughout the globe caused by that change. A change in the Pacific ocean is used as a test case to determine the effectiveness of the method.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
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This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Theodore Weber, Austin Corotan, Brian Hutchinson, Ben Kravitz, and Robert Link
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2303–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, 2020
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Climate model emulators can save computer time but are less accurate than full climate models. We use neural networks to build emulators of precipitation, trained on existing climate model runs. By doing so, we can capture nonlinearities and how the past state of a model (to some degree) shapes the future state. Our emulator outperforms a persistence forecast of precipitation.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
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We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Kévin Lamy, Thierry Portafaix, Béatrice Josse, Colette Brogniez, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Hassan Bencherif, Laura Revell, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Ben Liley, Virginie Marecal, Olaf Morgenstern, Andrea Stenke, Guang Zeng, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Neil Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Glauco Di Genova, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas Kinnison, Michael Kotkamp, Richard McKenzie, Martine Michou, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10087–10110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10087-2019, 2019
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In this study, we simulate the ultraviolet radiation evolution during the 21st century on Earth's surface using the output from several numerical models which participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. We present four possible futures which depend on greenhouse gases emissions. The role of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and aerosols are investigated. Our results emphasize the important role of aerosols for future ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Robert Link, Abigail Snyder, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Kravitz, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1477–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, 2019
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Earth system models (ESMs) produce the highest-quality future climate data available, but they are costly to run, so only a few runs from each model are publicly available. What is needed are emulators that tell us what would have happened, if we had been able to perform as many ESM runs as we might have liked. Much of the existing work on emulators has focused on deterministic projections of average values. Here we present a way to imbue emulators with the variability seen in ESM runs.
Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmüller, Hella Garny, Petr Šácha, Thomas Birner, Harald Bönisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 921–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-921-2019, 2019
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To shed more light upon the changes in stratospheric circulation in the 21st century, climate projection simulations of 10 state-of-the-art global climate models, spanning from 1960 to 2100, are analyzed. The study shows that in addition to changes in transport, mixing also plays an important role in stratospheric circulation and that the properties of mixing vary over time. Furthermore, the influence of mixing is quantified and a dynamical framework is provided to understand the changes.
Christopher G. Fletcher, Ben Kravitz, and Bakr Badawy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17529–17543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17529-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17529-2018, 2018
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The most important number for future climate projections is Earth's climate sensitivity (CS), or how much warming will result from increased carbon dioxide. We cannot know the true CS, and estimates of CS from climate models have a wide range. This study identifies the major factors that control this range, and we show that the choice of methods used in creating a climate model are three times more important than fine-tuning the details of the model after it is created.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
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Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Glauco di Genova, Simone Tilmes, and Irene Cionni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14867–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14867-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14867-2018, 2018
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Many side effects of sulfate geoengineering have to be analyzed before the world can even consider deploying this method of solar radiation management. In particular, we show that ice clouds in the upper troposphere are modified by a sulfate injection, producing a change that (by allowing for more planetary radiation to escape to space) would produce a further cooling. This might be important when considering the necessary amount of sulfate that needs to be injected to achieve a certain target.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Duoying Ji, Songsong Fang, Charles L. Curry, Hiroki Kashimura, Shingo Watanabe, Jason N. S. Cole, Andrew Lenton, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10133–10156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, 2018
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We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under climate-model-simulated solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering schemes. Both types of geoengineering lead to lower minimum temperatures at higher latitudes and greater cooling of minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures over land compared with oceans. Stratospheric aerosol injection is more effective in reducing tropical extreme precipitation, while solar dimming is more effective over extra-tropical regions.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
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We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
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In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Simone Dietmüller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Jöckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6699-2018, 2018
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
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There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Paolo Tuccella, and Gabriele Curci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2787–2808, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2787-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2787-2018, 2018
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Sulfate geoengineering is a proposed technique that would mimic explosive volcanic eruptions by injecting sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere to counteract global warming produced by greenhouse gases by reflecting part of the incoming solar radiation. In this study we use two models to simulate how the injected aerosols would react to dynamical changes in the stratosphere (due to the quasi-biennial oscillation - QBO) and how this would affect the deposition of sulfate at the surface.
Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A. Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D. Oman, Michael E. Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E. Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni, Sandip S. Dhomse, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1091–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018, 2018
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We assess how ozone as simulated by a group of chemistry–climate models responds to variations in man-made climate gases and ozone-depleting substances. We find some agreement, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere, but also considerable disagreement elsewhere. Such disagreement affects the reliability of future ozone projections based on these models, and also constitutes a source of uncertainty in climate projections using prescribed ozone derived from these simulations.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Lars Ahlm, Andy Jones, Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13071–13087, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, 2017
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We present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models focusing on the response of Earth’s radiation balance to the injection of sea salt particles. We find that in most regions the effective radiative forcing by the injected particles is equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions, suggesting a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Valentina Aquila, Simone Tilmes, Irene Cionni, Glauco Di Genova, and Eva Mancini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11209–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11209-2017, 2017
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Sulfate geoengineering (SG), the sustained injection of SO2 in the lower stratosphere, is being discussed as a way to counterbalance surface warming, mimicking volcanic eruptions. In this paper, we analyse results from two models part of the GeoMIP project in order to understand the effect SG might have on the concentration and lifetime of methane, which acts in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. Understanding possible side effects of SG is a crucial step if its viability is to be assessed.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 281–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, 2017
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Pattern scaling climate model output is a computationally efficient way to produce a large amount of data for purposes of uncertainty quantification. Using a multi-model ensemble we explore pattern scaling methodologies across two future forcing scenarios. We find that the simple least squares approach to pattern scaling produces a close approximation of actual model output, and we use this as a justification for the creation of an open-access pattern library at multiple time increments.
Ben Kravitz, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1889–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, 2017
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Pattern scaling is a way of approximating regional changes without needing to run a full, complex global climate model. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for precipitation and evaluate which methods is
betterin particular circumstances. We also decompose precipitation into a CO2 portion and a non-CO2 portion. The methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields for other models for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, and Valentina Aquila
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3879–3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3879-2017, 2017
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This review paper summarizes the state-of-the-art knowledge of the direct and indirect side effects of sulfate geoengineering, that is, the injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere in order to offset the warming caused by the anthropic increase in greenhouse gasses. An overview of the various effects and their uncertainties, using results from published scientific articles, may help fine-tune the best amount of sulfate to be injected in an eventual realization of the experiment.
Hiroki Kashimura, Manabu Abe, Shingo Watanabe, Takashi Sekiya, Duoying Ji, John C. Moore, Jason N. S. Cole, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3339–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, 2017
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This study analyses shortwave radiation (SW) in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. G4 involves stratospheric injection of 5 Tg yr−1 of SO2 against the RCP4.5 scenario. The global mean forcing of the sulphate geoengineering has an inter-model variablity of −3.6 to −1.6 W m−2, implying a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulfate aerosols. Changes in water vapour and cloud amounts due to the SO2 injection weaken the forcing at the surface by around 50 %.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Philip J. Rasch, and Hailong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2525–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2525-2017, 2017
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We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
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We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
Corey J. Gabriel, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Brian Zambri, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 595–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-595-2017, 2017
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The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM-CAM4-CHEM global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is raised over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30° N and an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly during the JJA season, relative to both G4SSA and RCP6.0.
Douglas G. MacMartin and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15789–15799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15789-2016, 2016
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Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a possible additional approach for managing risks of climate change, by reflecting some sunlight back to space. To project climate effects resulting from future choices regarding both greenhouse gas emissions and solar geoengineering, it is useful to have a computationally efficient "emulator" that approximates the behavior of more complex climate models. We present such an emulator here, and validate the underlying assumption of linearity.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Pattern scaling is used to explore uncertainty in future forcing scenarios and assess local climate sensitivity to global temperature change. This paper examines the two dominant pattern scaling methods using a multi-model ensemble with two future socio-economic storylines. We find that high latitudes show the strongest sensitivity to global temperature change and that the simple least squared regression approach to generation of patterns is a better fit to projected global temperature.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Hailong Wang, and Philip J. Rasch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016
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Most simulations of solar geoengineering prescribe a particular strategy and evaluate its modeled effects. Here we first choose example climate objectives and then design a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. We show that certain objectives can be met simultaneously even in the presence of uncertainty, and the strategy for meeting those objectives can be ported to other models. This is part of a broader illustration of how uncertainties in solar geoengineering can be managed.
B. Kravitz, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, O. Boucher, J. M. English, P. J. Irvine, A. Jones, M. G. Lawrence, M. MacCracken, H. Muri, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, S. J. Phipps, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015
S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, 2015
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A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment “G4 specified stratospheric aerosols” (G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments.
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Explaining the green volcanic sunsets after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa
A multi-scenario Lagrangian trajectory analysis to identify source regions of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer on the Indian subcontinent in August 2016
Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios
How the extreme 2019–2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments
Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far
Including ash in UKESM1 model simulations of the Raikoke volcanic eruption reveals improved agreement with observations
Particle number concentrations and size distributions in the stratosphere: implications of nucleation mechanisms and particle microphysics
Interactive stratospheric aerosol models' response to different amounts and altitudes of SO2 injection during the 1991 Pinatubo eruption
Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 2: Stratospheric and free-tropospheric response
The effect of ash, water vapor, and heterogeneous chemistry on the evolution of a Pinatubo-size volcanic cloud
Dynamical perturbation of the stratosphere by a pyrocumulonimbus injection of carbonaceous aerosols
Important role of stratospheric injection height for the distribution and radiative forcing of smoke aerosol from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires
Volcanic stratospheric injections up to 160 Tg(S) yield a Eurasian winter warming indistinguishable from internal variability
Assessing the consequences of including aerosol absorption in potential stratospheric aerosol injection climate intervention strategies
Online treatment of eruption dynamics improves the volcanic ash and SO2 dispersion forecast: case of the 2019 Raikoke eruption
The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment
An interactive stratospheric aerosol model intercomparison of solar geoengineering by stratospheric injection of SO2 or accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosols
Limitations of assuming internal mixing between different aerosol species: a case study with sulfate geoengineering simulations
Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 1: Intercomparison of modal and sectional aerosol modules
The long-term transport and radiative impacts of the 2017 British Columbia pyrocumulonimbus smoke aerosols in the stratosphere
Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations
Harnessing stratospheric diffusion barriers for enhanced climate geoengineering
Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble
North Atlantic Oscillation response in GeoMIP experiments G6solar and G6sulfur: why detailed modelling is needed for understanding regional implications of solar radiation management
Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883
Differing responses of the quasi-biennial oscillation to artificial SO2 injections in two global models
Revisiting the Agung 1963 volcanic forcing – impact of one or two eruptions
Northern Hemisphere continental winter warming following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption: reconciling models and observations
Upper tropospheric ice sensitivity to sulfate geoengineering
Stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC using Aerosol CCI satellite data
Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols
Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions
Model simulations of the chemical and aerosol microphysical evolution of the Sarychev Peak 2009 eruption cloud compared to in situ and satellite observations
Sensitivity of the radiative forcing by stratospheric sulfur geoengineering to the amount and strategy of the SO2injection studied with the LMDZ-S3A model
Sulfur deposition changes under sulfate geoengineering conditions: quasi-biennial oscillation effects on the transport and lifetime of stratospheric aerosols
Changing transport processes in the stratosphere by radiative heating of sulfate aerosols
Equatorward dispersion of a high-latitude volcanic plume and its relation to the Asian summer monsoon: a case study of the Sarychev eruption in 2009
Sulfate geoengineering impact on methane transport and lifetime: results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
Nucleation modeling of the Antarctic stratospheric CN layer and derivation of sulfuric acid profiles
Radiative and climate effects of stratospheric sulfur geoengineering using seasonally varying injection areas
Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
Sulfate geoengineering: a review of the factors controlling the needed injection of sulfur dioxide
Climatic impacts of stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate, black carbon and titania injection
Radiative and climate impacts of a large volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering
Climate extremes in multi-model simulations of stratospheric aerosol and marine cloud brightening climate engineering
What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO2?
Quasi-biennial oscillation of the tropical stratospheric aerosol layer
The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure
Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions
Christian von Savigny, Anna Lange, Christoph G. Hoffmann, and Alexei Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2415–2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2415-2024, 2024
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It is well known that volcanic eruptions strongly affect the colours of the twilight sky. Typically, volcanic eruptions lead to enhanced reddish and violet twilight colours. In rare cases, however, volcanic eruptions can also lead to green sunsets. This study provides an explanation for the occurrence of these unusual green sunsets based on simulations with a radiative transfer model. Green volcanic sunsets require a sufficient stratospheric aerosol optical depth and specific aerosol sizes.
Jan Clemens, Bärbel Vogel, Lars Hoffmann, Sabine Griessbach, Nicole Thomas, Suvarna Fadnavis, Rolf Müller, Thomas Peter, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 763–787, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-763-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-763-2024, 2024
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The source regions of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL) are debated. We use balloon-borne measurements of the layer above Nainital (India) in August 2016 and atmospheric transport models to find ATAL source regions. Most air originated from the Tibetan plateau. However, the measured ATAL was stronger when more air originated from the Indo-Gangetic Plain and weaker when more air originated from the Pacific. Hence, the results indicate important anthropogenic contributions to the ATAL.
Seyed Vahid Mousavi, Khalil Karami, Simone Tilmes, Helene Muri, Lili Xia, and Abolfazl Rezaei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10677–10695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10677-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10677-2023, 2023
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Understanding atmospheric dust changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under future climate scenarios is essential. By injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering reflects some of the incoming sunlight back to space. This study shows that the MENA region would experience lower dust concentration under both SAI and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to the current climate (CTL) by the end of the century.
Fabian Senf, Bernd Heinold, Anne Kubin, Jason Müller, Roland Schrödner, and Ina Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8939–8958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8939-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8939-2023, 2023
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Wildfire smoke is a significant source of airborne atmospheric particles that can absorb sunlight. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019–2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can considerably affect our climate system. In the present study, we investigate the various effects of Australian smoke using a global climate model to clarify how the Earth's atmosphere, including its circulation systems, adjusted to the extraordinary amount of Australian smoke.
Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Joshua Coupe, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6691–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023, 2023
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A nuclear war could produce a nuclear winter, with catastrophic consequences for global food supplies. Nuclear winter theory helped to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s, but more than 10 000 nuclear weapons still exist. This means they can be used, by unstable leaders, accidently from technical malfunctions or human error, or by terrorists. Therefore, it is urgent for scientists to study these issues, broadly communicate their results, and work for the elimination of nuclear weapons.
Alice F. Wells, Andy Jones, Martin Osborne, Lilly Damany-Pearce, Daniel G. Partridge, and James M. Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3985–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3985-2023, 2023
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In 2019 the Raikoke volcano erupted explosively, emitting the largest injection of SO2 into the stratosphere since 2011. Observations indicated that a large amount of volcanic ash was also injected. Previous studies have identified that volcanic ash can prolong the lifetime of stratospheric aerosol optical depth, which we explore in UKESM1. Comparisons to observations suggest that including ash in model emission schemes can improve the representation of volcanic plumes in global climate models.
Fangqun Yu, Gan Luo, Arshad Arjunan Nair, Sebastian Eastham, Christina J. Williamson, Agnieszka Kupc, and Charles A. Brock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1863-2023, 2023
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Particle number concentrations and size distributions in the stratosphere are studied through model simulations and comparisons with measurements. The nucleation scheme used in most of the solar geoengineering modeling studies overpredicts the nucleation rates and particle number concentrations in the stratosphere. The model based on updated nucleation schemes captures reasonably well some aspects of particle size distributions but misses some features. The possible reasons are discussed.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
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The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
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Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Mohamed Abdelkader, Georgiy Stenchikov, Andrea Pozzer, Holger Tost, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 471–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-471-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-471-2023, 2023
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We study the effect of injected volcanic ash, water vapor, and SO2 on the development of the volcanic cloud and the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD). Both are sensitive to the initial injection height and to the aging of the volcanic ash shaped by heterogeneous chemistry coupled with the ozone cycle. The paper explains the large differences in AOD for different injection scenarios, which could improve the estimate of the radiative forcing of volcanic eruptions.
Giorgio Doglioni, Valentina Aquila, Sampa Das, Peter R. Colarco, and Dino Zardi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11049–11064, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11049-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11049-2022, 2022
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We use a global chemistry climate model to analyze the perturbations to the stratospheric dynamics caused by an injection of carbonaceous aerosol comparable to the one caused by a series of pyrocumulonimbi that formed over British Columbia, Canada on 13 August 2017. The injection of light-absorbing aerosol in an otherwise clean lower stratosphere causes the formation of long-lasting stratospheric anticyclones at the synoptic scale.
Bernd Heinold, Holger Baars, Boris Barja, Matthew Christensen, Anne Kubin, Kevin Ohneiser, Kerstin Schepanski, Nick Schutgens, Fabian Senf, Roland Schrödner, Diego Villanueva, and Ina Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9969–9985, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9969-2022, 2022
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The extreme 2019–2020 Australian wildfires produced massive smoke plumes lofted into the lower stratosphere by pyrocumulonimbus convection. Most climate models do not adequately simulate the injection height of such intense fires. By combining aerosol-climate modeling with prescribed pyroconvective smoke injection and lidar observations, this study shows the importance of the representation of the most extreme wildfire events for estimating the atmospheric energy budget.
Kevin DallaSanta and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8843–8862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8843-2022, 2022
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Volcanic eruptions cool the earth by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that they may also warm the surface, but the evidence for this is scant. Here, we show that a small warming can be seen in a climate model for large-enough eruptions. However, even for eruptions much larger than those that have occurred in the past two millennia, post-eruption winters over Eurasia are indistinguishable from those occurring without a prior eruption.
Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Ben T. Johnson, and William McFarlane Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6135–6150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6135-2022, 2022
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Simulations are presented investigating the influence of moderately absorbing aerosol in the stratosphere to combat the impacts of climate change. A number of detrimental impacts are noted compared to sulfate aerosol, including (i) reduced cooling efficiency, (ii) increased deficits in global precipitation, (iii) delays in the recovery of the stratospheric ozone hole, and (iv) disruption of the stratospheric circulation and the wintertime storm tracks that impact European precipitation.
Julia Bruckert, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Ákos Horváth, Lukas O. Muser, Fred J. Prata, Corinna Hoose, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3535–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3535-2022, 2022
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Volcanic emissions endanger aviation and public health and also influence weather and climate. Forecasting the volcanic-plume dispersion is therefore a critical yet sophisticated task. Here, we show that explicit treatment of volcanic-plume dynamics and eruption source parameters significantly improves volcanic-plume dispersion forecasts. We further demonstrate the lofting of the SO2 due to a heating of volcanic particles by sunlight with major implications for volcanic aerosol research.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
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Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Debra K. Weisenstein, Daniele Visioni, Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandro Vattioni, Gabriel Chiodo, Thomas Peter, and David W. Keith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, 2022
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This paper explores a potential method of geoengineering that could be used to slow the rate of change of climate over decadal scales. We use three climate models to explore how injections of accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosol change the large-scale stratospheric particle size distribution and radiative forcing response for the chosen scenarios. Radiative forcing per unit sulfur injected and relative to the change in aerosol burden is larger with particulate than with SO2 injections.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
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Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Anton Laakso, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 93–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, 2022
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The use of different spatio-temporal sulfur injection strategies with different magnitudes to create an artificial reflective aerosol layer to cool the climate is studied using sectional and modal aerosol schemes in a climate model. There are significant differences in the results depending on the aerosol microphysical module used. Different spatio-temporal injection strategies have a significant impact on the magnitude and zonal distribution of radiative forcing and atmospheric dynamics.
Sampa Das, Peter R. Colarco, Luke D. Oman, Ghassan Taha, and Omar Torres
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12069–12090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12069-2021, 2021
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Interactions of extreme fires with weather systems can produce towering smoke plumes that inject aerosols at very high altitudes (> 10 km). Three such major injections, largest at the time in terms of emitted aerosol mass, took place over British Columbia, Canada, in August 2017. We model the transport and impacts of injected aerosols on the radiation balance of the atmosphere. Our model results match the satellite-observed plume transport and residence time at these high altitudes very closely.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
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A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, and George Haller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8845–8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, 2021
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There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
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This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
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This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
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Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13687–13700, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13687-2020, 2020
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On the basis of questionable early studies, it is widely believed that low-latitude volcanic eruptions cause winter warming over Eurasia. However, we here demonstrate that the winter warming over Eurasia following the 1883 Krakatau eruption was unremarkable and, in all likelihood, unrelated to that eruption. Confirming similar findings for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, the new research demonstrates that no detectable Eurasian winter warming is to be expected after eruptions of similar magnitude.
Ulrike Niemeier, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8975–8987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8975-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8975-2020, 2020
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Artificial injections of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere show an impact on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Different numerical models show only qualitatively but not quantitatively consistent impacts. We show for two models that the response of the QBO is similar when a similar stratospheric heating rate is induced by SO2 injections of different amounts. The reason is very different vertical advection in the two models resulting in different aerosol burden and heating of the aerosols.
Ulrike Niemeier, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10379–10390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, 2019
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In 1963 Mt. Agung, Indonesia, showed unrest for several months. During this period,
two medium-sized eruptions injected SO2 into the stratosphere. Recent volcanic emission datasets include only one large eruption phase. Therefore, we compared model experiments, with (a) one larger eruption and (b) two eruptions as observed. The evolution of the volcanic cloud differs significantly between the two experiments. Both climatic eruptions should be taken into account.
Lorenzo M. Polvani, Antara Banerjee, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6351–6366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019, 2019
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This study provides compelling new evidence that the surface winter warming observed over the Northern Hemisphere continents following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo was, very likely, completely unrelated to the eruption. This result has implications for earlier eruptions, as the evidence presented here demonstrates that the surface signal of even the very largest known eruptions may be swamped by the internal variability at high latitudes.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Glauco di Genova, Simone Tilmes, and Irene Cionni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14867–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14867-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14867-2018, 2018
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Many side effects of sulfate geoengineering have to be analyzed before the world can even consider deploying this method of solar radiation management. In particular, we show that ice clouds in the upper troposphere are modified by a sulfate injection, producing a change that (by allowing for more planetary radiation to escape to space) would produce a further cooling. This might be important when considering the necessary amount of sulfate that needs to be injected to achieve a certain target.
Christoph Brühl, Jennifer Schallock, Klaus Klingmüller, Charles Robert, Christine Bingen, Lieven Clarisse, Andreas Heckel, Peter North, and Landon Rieger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12845–12857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12845-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12845-2018, 2018
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Use of multi-instrument satellite data is important to get consistent simulations of aerosol radiative forcing by a complex chemistry climate model, here with a main focus on the lower stratosphere. The satellite data at different wavelengths together with the patterns in the simulated size distribution point to a significant contribution from moist mineral dust lifted to the tropopause region by the Asian summer monsoon.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Yaoxian Huang, Nadine Unger, Trude Storelvmo, Kandice Harper, Yiqi Zheng, and Chris Heyes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5219–5233, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5219-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5219-2018, 2018
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We apply a global 3-D climate model to quantify the climate impacts of carbonaceous aerosols from solid fuel cookstove emissions. Without black carbon (BC) serving as ice nuclei (IN), global and Indian solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions have net global cooling impacts. However, when BC acts as IN, the net sign of radiative impacts of carbonaceous aerosols from solid fuel cookstove emissions varies with the choice of maximum freezing efficiency of BC during ice cloud formation.
Thibaut Lurton, Fabrice Jégou, Gwenaël Berthet, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Lieven Clarisse, Anja Schmidt, Colette Brogniez, and Tjarda J. Roberts
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3223–3247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3223-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3223-2018, 2018
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We quantify the chemical and microphysical effects of volcanic SO2 and HCl from the June 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption using a comprehensive aerosol–chemistry model combined with in situ measurements and satellite retrievals. Our results suggest that previous studies underestimated the eruption's atmospheric and climatic impact, mainly because previous model-to-satellite comparisons had to make assumptions about the aerosol size distribution and were based on biased satellite retrievals of AOD.
Christoph Kleinschmitt, Olivier Boucher, and Ulrich Platt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2769–2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2769-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2769-2018, 2018
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We use a state-of-the-art stratospheric aerosol model to study geoengineering through stratospheric sulfur injections. We find that the efficiency may decrease more drastically for larger injections than previously estimated and that injections at higher altitude are not more effective. This study may provide additional evidence that this proposed geoengineering technique is still more complicated, probably less effective, and may implicate stronger side effects than initially thought.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Paolo Tuccella, and Gabriele Curci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2787–2808, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2787-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2787-2018, 2018
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Sulfate geoengineering is a proposed technique that would mimic explosive volcanic eruptions by injecting sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere to counteract global warming produced by greenhouse gases by reflecting part of the incoming solar radiation. In this study we use two models to simulate how the injected aerosols would react to dynamical changes in the stratosphere (due to the quasi-biennial oscillation - QBO) and how this would affect the deposition of sulfate at the surface.
Ulrike Niemeier and Hauke Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14871–14886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14871-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14871-2017, 2017
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An artificial stratospheric sulfur layer heats the lower stratosphere which impacts stratospheric dynamics and transport. The quasi-biennial oscillation shuts down due to the heated sulfur layer which impacts the meridional transport of the sulfate aerosols. The tropical confinement of the sulfate is stronger and the radiative forcing efficiency of the aerosol layer decreases compared to previous studies, as does the forcing when increasing the injection height.
Xue Wu, Sabine Griessbach, and Lars Hoffmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13439–13455, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13439-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13439-2017, 2017
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This study is focused on the Sarychev eruption in 2009. Based on Lagrangian model simulations and satellite data, the equatorward transport of the plume and aerosol from the Sarychev eruption is confirmed, and the transport is facilitated by the Asian summer monsoon anticyclonic circulations. The aerosol transported to the tropics remained for months and dispersed upward, which could make the Sarychev eruption have a similar global climate impact as a tropical volcanic eruption.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Valentina Aquila, Simone Tilmes, Irene Cionni, Glauco Di Genova, and Eva Mancini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11209–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11209-2017, 2017
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Sulfate geoengineering (SG), the sustained injection of SO2 in the lower stratosphere, is being discussed as a way to counterbalance surface warming, mimicking volcanic eruptions. In this paper, we analyse results from two models part of the GeoMIP project in order to understand the effect SG might have on the concentration and lifetime of methane, which acts in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. Understanding possible side effects of SG is a crucial step if its viability is to be assessed.
Steffen Münch and Joachim Curtius
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7581–7591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7581-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7581-2017, 2017
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Recent research has analyzed the formation of a particle (CN) layer in the stratosphere above Antarctica after sunrise. We investigate the CN layer formation processes with our particle formation model and derive sulfuric acid profiles (no measurements exist). Our study confirms existing explanations and gives more insights into the formation process, leading to higher derived concentrations. Therefore, this paper improves our understanding of the processes in the high atmosphere.
Anton Laakso, Hannele Korhonen, Sami Romakkaniemi, and Harri Kokkola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6957–6974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6957-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6957-2017, 2017
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Based on simulations, equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections have shown to be an efficient strategy to counteract ongoing global warming. However, equatorial injections would result in relatively larger cooling in low latitudes than in high latitudes. This together with greenhouse-gas-induced warming would lead to cooling in the Equator and warming in the high latitudes. Results of this study show that a more optimal cooling effect is achieved by varying the injection area seasonally.
Alejandro Marti, Arnau Folch, Oriol Jorba, and Zavisa Janjic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4005–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017, 2017
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We describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a novel online multi-scale meteorological and transport model developed at the BSC-CNS capable of forecasting the dispersal and deposition of volcanic ash. The forecast skills of the model have been validated and they improve on those from traditional operational offline (decoupled) models. The results support the use of online coupled models to aid civil aviation and emergency management during a crisis such as the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, and Valentina Aquila
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3879–3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3879-2017, 2017
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This review paper summarizes the state-of-the-art knowledge of the direct and indirect side effects of sulfate geoengineering, that is, the injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere in order to offset the warming caused by the anthropic increase in greenhouse gasses. An overview of the various effects and their uncertainties, using results from published scientific articles, may help fine-tune the best amount of sulfate to be injected in an eventual realization of the experiment.
Anthony C. Jones, James M. Haywood, and Andy Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2843–2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2843-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2843-2016, 2016
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In this paper we assess the potential climatic impacts of geoengineering with sulfate, black carbon and titania injection strategies. We find that black carbon injection results in severe stratospheric warming and precipitation impacts, and therefore black carbon is unsuitable for geoengineering purposes. As the injection rates and climatic impacts for titania are close to those for sulfate, there appears little benefit of using titania when compared to injection of sulfur dioxide.
A. Laakso, H. Kokkola, A.-I. Partanen, U. Niemeier, C. Timmreck, K. E. J. Lehtinen, H. Hakkarainen, and H. Korhonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 305–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-305-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-305-2016, 2016
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We have studied the impacts of a volcanic eruption during solar radiation management (SRM) using an aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM-SALSA and an Earth system model MPI-ESM. A volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering would lead to larger particles and smaller amount of new particles than if an volcano erupts in normal atmospheric conditions. Thus, volcanic eruption during SRM would lead to only a small additional cooling which would last for a significantly shorter period.
V. N. Aswathy, O. Boucher, M. Quaas, U. Niemeier, H. Muri, J. Mülmenstädt, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9593–9610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9593-2015, 2015
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Simulations conducted in the GeoMIP and IMPLICC model intercomparison studies for climate engineering by stratospheric sulfate injection and marine cloud brightening via sea salt are analysed and compared to the reference scenario RCP4.5. The focus is on extremes in surface temperature and precipitation. It is found that the extreme changes mostly follow the mean changes and that extremes are also in general well mitigated, except for in polar regions.
U. Niemeier and C. Timmreck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9129–9141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, 2015
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The injection of sulfur dioxide is considered as an option for solar radiation management. We have calculated the effects of SO2 injections up to 100 Tg(S)/y. Our calculations show that the forcing efficiency of the injection decays exponentially. This result implies that SO2 injections in the order of 6 times Mt. Pinatubo eruptions per year are required to keep temperatures constant at that anticipated for 2020, whilst maintaining business as usual emission conditions.
R. Hommel, C. Timmreck, M. A. Giorgetta, and H. F. Graf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5557–5584, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5557-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5557-2015, 2015
M. Toohey, K. Krüger, M. Bittner, C. Timmreck, and H. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13063–13079, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13063-2014, 2014
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Earth system model simulations are used to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, e.g. the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex. We find that mechanisms linking aerosol heating and high-latitude dynamics are not as direct as often assumed; high-latitude effects result from changes in stratospheric circulation and related vertical motions. The simulated responses also show evidence of being sensitive to the structure of the volcanic forcing used.
F. Arfeuille, B. P. Luo, P. Heckendorn, D. Weisenstein, J. X. Sheng, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, S. Brönnimann, L. W. Thomason, and T. Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11221–11234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013, 2013
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Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide is a gas that mixes very well in the atmosphere and can reach the stratosphere, where it reacts with sunlight and produces aerosol. Here we propose that, by increasing surface fluxes by an order of magnitude, the number of stratospheric aerosols produced may be enough to partially offset the warming produced by greenhouse gases. We explore what effect this would have on the atmospheric composition.
Carbonyl sulfide is a gas that mixes very well in the atmosphere and can reach the stratosphere,...
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