Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals

Chai, Tianfeng; Crawford, Alice; Stunder, Barbara; Pavolonis, Michael J.; Draxler, Roland; Stein, Ariel

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2865-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2865-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2865-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

Research article

|

24 Feb 2017

Research article |

| 24 Feb 2017

Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals

Tianfeng Chai, Alice Crawford, Barbara Stunder, Michael J. Pavolonis, Roland Draxler, and Ariel Stein

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Final revised paper (published on 24 Feb 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 13 Oct 2016)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of `Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals' by Chai et al', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Nov 2016
- AC2: 'Responses to the comments of referee \#2', Tianfeng Chai, 19 Jan 2017
RC2: 'Review of the paper “Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals” by Chai et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Nov 2016
- AC1: 'Responses to the comments of referee \#1', Tianfeng Chai, 19 Jan 2017
AC3: 'Revised manuscript', Tianfeng Chai, 19 Jan 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Tianfeng Chai on behalf of the Authors (26 Jan 2017) Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (06 Feb 2017) by Stefano Galmarini

AR by Tianfeng Chai on behalf of the Authors (09 Feb 2017) Manuscript

Short summary

An inverse system based on the HYSPLIT dispersion model has been built to estimate volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations. Using MODIS retrievals from the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds, three options for matching model results to satellite mass loadings are tested. They all show decent skill. It is also found that simultaneously assimilating observations at different times produces better hindcasts than only assimilating the most recent observations.