Review of Assessing raindrop evolution over northern Western Ghat from stable isotope signature of rain and vapour
This work evaluates rain and water vapor isotope ratios collected during the monsoon period near Pune, India using a Below Cloud Interaction Model (BCIM), which allows one to evaluate how rain evaporation affects the measured rain isotope ratios. The BCIM is run with different assumptions about the relative humidity profile, temperature profile, and isotopic lapse rate. These assumptions produce three runs, which I will refer to in my comments below. This is my second time reviewing this work, and I can tell that a great deal of new work has been added to the manuscript. While I find many of the new tables and figures to be quite a bit more effective in communicating the results, I find that the key message of this paper is lost in the rather long text, especially in the Discussion. I also find several inconsistencies in the narrative.
Major concerns:
In Run-1, the isotopic inputs for the BCIM isotope lapse rates are taken from the measured surface dD and dxs. But these measurements should already be influenced by rain evaporation, if rain evaporation is indeed occurring. I don’t see why these values should be representative of the atmospheric column before droplets form, precipitation falls, and rain evaporation occurs. What happens if vapor from non-rainy days is used instead? I am not necessarily asking for more analysis to be done, but I would like to see some justification of this important assumption.
Run-2 uses old TES (satellite) data from a decade before the study period to calculate characteristic isotopic lapse rates that can be scaled to measured surface isotopic values. (Some of the same issues raised for Run-1 thus also apply here.) I appreciate the extra work that was put into exploring the use of AIRS, whose measurements overlap in time with the period of analysis. I am confused by the conclusions in the Supplemental, however. The Supplemental suggests that AIRS does not produce values that match observed rain isotope ratios and therefore cannot be used. This does not feel like a sufficient justification for throwing out or ignoring actual data. Is it possible that AIRS simply lacks the sensitivity to the lower altitudes? Or the sample size is too limited by cloudiness? Were five years used, same as TES? Do the sensors give totally different answers for the same period? Once again, I am not asking that each of these questions is tested exhaustively. But I am asking for some justification as to why it’s okay to simply throw out the AIRS results because they don’t give the desired answer.
Run-3: if the dD and dxs profiles are tuned to replicate the observed rain isotopic values, it produces an excellent fit by design. The question in my mind here is whether the vapor values selected in the tuning are reasonable and make sense physically. I believe that the answer is in Fig. S8b-2. What does it mean that the dxs profile that produces the closest rain isotope values to observations is about 10 permil rather than 20 permil in value (note that 20 is the input used for the other runs)? Is this because the 20 permil is the value obtained post-rain evaporation (rather than pre-rain evaporation, i.e. the initial condition)? Some discussion of this would be valuable in place of several paragraphs talking about the goodness of fit of a tuned simulation.
Discussion.
I had a hard time following the narrative through the Discussion. My comments below are organized in three groups:
1. Key points.
I feel that the discussion could play a critical synthesis role in this manuscript by clearly stating which parameter inputs critically influence the ability of the BCIM model to reproduce the observed rain isotope ratios and by linking these inputs to known processes. Instead, various inputs/processes are highlighted in different places, without a clear indication of their relative importance. For example, Line 549 states that downdrafts and other processes “override” surface meteorological parameters. However, Line 447 talks about surface water vapor isotope values being critical determinants of rain isotope values, and elsewhere it is suggested that surface relative humidity is important. Near Line 628, the size of raindrops and intensity of precipitation are invoked. Perhaps some places are talking about the effect on the isotope values while other places are talking about the effect on the bulk rain evaporation flux.The Discussion should make these points clearly and concisely while also synthesizing the take-home message from the 3 Runs.
2. Evaporation fraction estimate.
Equation 2 (Line 681) gets close to the kind of synthesis I’d like to see, but fails to tell us how the evaporation fractions are calculated (this is only explained in the next section). I had thought that estimating the evaporation fraction was a prime goal of this work, but the result (average 23%) is buried in a parenthetical 5 pages into the Discussion (Line 690). I’m also unsure why two evaporation fraction equations are needed (Eq 2 normalized, Eq 3 not).
3. Downdrafts.
Much of the Discussion (or at least first four pages) talks about downdrafts, when this is not a process that is captured in the BCIM. What does it mean if the BCIM reproduces the observed rain isotope values but misses the process that the manuscript argues might be most critical for setting the near-surface water vapor isotope ratios (Line 587)?
There is a lot of great information in the Discussion, and I think it will be conveyed much more effectively with some re-ordering, organizing, and trimming.
Minor comments:
Line 177, missing Δ
Line 185, phrasing is a bit awkward (Marshall-Palmer)
Line 194, consider “option” for “imperative”
Line 226, I do not follow what “input are taken accordingly” means
Section 2.4.3 should explain where the isotopic input values come from, even if it is to say that they come from one of several possible sources, detailed later in the text.
I’m not sure that CLWC is ever defined in the text.
Line 374, I would simply say “outputs from the GCM LMDZ”. “Namely” implies that other models are also being used.
Line 412, What is a “digital value” for TES?
Line 464, referring to Equation 1, the coefficients suggests a 1 permil change in dD_vapor results in a 1 permil change in dD_rain. It is not a percent change.
Line 498, Sodemann et al. 2017 is from the Mediterranean, not necessarily appropriate for the deep convective monsoon region.
Line 677, If the regression is normalized, does this mean we are using standard deviations of RH and T and drop diameter to predict the standard deviation of evaporation fraction? A one-line explanation/confirmation would be appreciated.
Line 720, all uncertainties are given in percent except for temperature. Why? |
This work evaluates rain and water vapor isotope ratios collected during the monsoon period near Pune, India using a Below Cloud Interaction Model (BCIM). By tuning the boundary conditions of the model, the work concludes that 23% of the raindrop mass evaporates on average near Pune. The work broadens our observational constraints on rain evaporation, which is an important process that influences model climate sensitivity and storm organization and intensity. However, some of the methodology would benefit from additional clarification. Comments to that effect are detailed below.
1. BCIM input, set up, assumptions, uncertainties:
To run the BCIM requires an assumption about the background water vapor isotopic profile. The paper tries using a) a Rayleigh distillation, b) a profile from GCM output, c) an average satellite profile from TES, and d) tuning the isotope ratios so that the BCIM rain and vapor isotope ratios match observation. Only the last attempt produces an agreeable result, and in large part because it was tuned to do so. Should we be concerned that assumptions about other factors—drop size distributions, for example—could actually be causing the model-observation discrepancy and that their effects are simply being masked in the tuning? Some of the answer appears in the Supplemental, and I strongly suggest that this material be included in the main manuscript instead. In fact, Figure S7 suggests that results vary more strongly with either drop size or RH than with assumptions about the background isotopic profile. More in depth discussion of assumptions and uncertainties would be helpful—particularly uncertainties in the rain evaporation percentage, as well as clarification on BCIM input methodology.
For example,
Other places to clarify:
L 435 says, “drop diameter at the ground is provided as input,” but how does this work? Isn’t the drop size at altitude the initial input for the BCIM?
L 469 says, “appropriate interpolations were carried out.” The interpolation method should be specified.
L 479: “The procedure is discussed…” but where? Below?
L 500 says the constants were estimated “by interpolation”. What kind? Linear? More detail would be helpful.
L 540 talks about “acheiv[ing] a reasonable agreement” through tuning. But more specifics are needed. What makes something reasonable? Is there a physical basis?
L 557-8 talks about needing to increase the d18O and decrease the dD profiles, but how is this done? Uniformly with height? (This seems to be what the figure shows). Or only near the surface or top? Again, further clarification would help.
L 525 says “one possible explanation [for error in Runs 1 and 2]” might be due to a missed ET signature. But what about the fact that the Runs are using average profiles from a GCM and 4x4 degree satellite average as a proxy for a single convective location?
2. RH as the primary control:
The paper argues that RH is the primary control on raindrop evaporation because RH varies more than other factors like drop size diameter. But I worry that this is inferred from an absolute value comparison when what might be more relevant is to evaluate how the standardized values differ. One can do this by standardizing the predictors or by looking at partial coefficients of determination in the regression. Without that additional step, I’m not sure that this argument is well supported. Moreover, earlier in the work (e.g. L 392) there seems to be a stronger emphasis on the importance of drop size. Is there a reason that the argument (apparently) shifts?
3. Other minor comments:
L 237 talks about 0.5 standard deviations: this is an unusual choice. Why not go with a more standard 1- or 2-sigma envelope?
Figure 2 talks about four regions marked by shading, but they are actually bounded by vertical lines.
L 296 talks about d-excess increasing while d18O decreases. The evaporation actually causes the rain d-excess to decrease and the d18O to increase. So while the relationship is self-consistent, it might be switched for clarity.
L 322 talks about deep convective systems being “controlled by different microphysical processes.” But, different from what?
L 375 provides a specific range, but this is only approximate. No sample actually gets to -20 permil. Also, the word “respectively” is not needed after the parenthesis.
Figure 5 might benefit from marking the 15 “evaporation” samples so that one can pick them out more easily.
It would also help to clarify somewhere in the text that Figure 4 shows absolute value differences between rain and vapor while Figures 6 and 7 show the difference when the rain values are converted to vapor in equilibrium with the rain. It took me a while to understand why I was seeing different axes values.
L 630: “intimate relations” is not the right phrase for this context. Correlations?
Conclusion #4: I find this point confusing, but maybe I just need to reflect on it a bit more. It suggests that local water vapor supply cannot be important to sub-cloud moisture, even though the paper argues that rain evaporation fraction is significant. Is the issue that a lot of the raindrop mass is evaporated, but that total amount of water vapor yielded is actually quite small?
Collision-coalsescence is not mentioned even though it is an important precipitation process that the BCIM neglects.