Articles | Volume 26, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15757-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15757-2026
ACP Letters
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10 Nov 2026
ACP Letters | Highlight paper |  | 10 Nov 2026

Correct use of radiative efficiencies in calculating global warming potentials and other emission metrics

William J. Collins, Øivind Hodnebrog, Keith P. Shine, and James B. Burkholder

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Cited articles

Aamaas, B., Peters, G. P., and Fuglestvedt, J. S.: Simple emission metrics for climate impacts, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 145–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, 2013. 
Collins, W., Myhre, G., and Hodnebrog, Ø.: Methane and Nitrous oxide profiles from Myhre and Stordal 1997, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21791080, 2026a. 
Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., and Shine, K. P.: Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071930, 2016. 
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks and  Climate Sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth  Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021. 
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Editorial statement
Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) convert a gas's radiative efficiency (RE) into a mass-based quantity (W m⁻² kg⁻¹) using the molecular weight and total atmospheric mass. REs are almost universally reported and used as radiative forcing per change in surface mole fraction, because that's what's measured and what radiative transfer models typically vary. For gases with non-uniform vertical profiles — those destroyed in the stratosphere (like CFCs, N₂O) or with short tropospheric lifetimes (many HFCs, HCFCs) — the surface mole fraction is higher than the atmosphere-wide mean, so plugging the surface-based RE directly into the mass-conversion formula systematically underestimates the actual mass-based radiative efficiency, and therefore underestimates the GWP. In this letter, the authors derive a correction factor (the ratio of the change in surface mole fraction to the change in mean atmospheric mole fraction) and provide empirical fits so this ratio can be estimated for any gas even without access to the original radiative transfer model output, leading to an upward revision of GWP values. The work has real potential consequences for regulatory thresholds and reported emissions-weighted climate impacts.
Short summary
The global warming potential (GWP) is a commonly used metric for relating the climate impact of emissions of a gas relative to that for carbon dioxide. We show that previous calculations have systematically underestimated these values by applying calculations of radiative forcing efficiency appropriate to changes in surface mole fractions rather than changes in the mass-weighted mean mole fraction in the atmosphere.
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