Articles | Volume 26, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13817-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13817-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 02 Oct 2026
| 02 Oct 2026
Uncertainties in recent tropical stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes limit the use of observational constraints for assessing future ozone change
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
William T. Ball
Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, TU Delft, Delft, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
deceased
Univ. of Texas at Dallas, Dallas, TX, USA
Gabriel Chiodo
Instituto de Geociencias, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (IGEO-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
Justin A. Alsing
Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Department of Physics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
James Keeble
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Hideharu Akiyoshi
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan
Carlo Arosio
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Ewa M. Bednarz
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Andreas Chrysanthou
Instituto de Geociencias, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (IGEO-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Melanie Coldewey-Egbers
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Methodik der Fernerkundung, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Robert Damadeo
NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Sandip Dhomse
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Mohamadou A. Diallo
Institute of Climate and Energy Systems – Stratosphere (ICE-4), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany
Simone Dietmuller
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Roland Eichinger
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Stacey Frith
Adnet Systems, Inc., Lanham, MD, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Birgit Hassler
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Michaela I. Hegglin
Institute of Climate and Energy Systems – Stratosphere, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany
Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Research, University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Daan Hubert
Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Brussels, Belgium
Patrick Jöckel
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Béatrice Josse
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo‐France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Natalya Kramarova
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Diego Loyola
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Methodik der Fernerkundung, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Eliane Maillard Barras
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Payerne, Switzerland
Marion Marchand
LATMOS, Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/UVSQ, Paris, France
Olaf Morgenstern
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Te Whanganui-a-Tara/Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Canterbury University, Ōtautahi/Christchurch, Aotearoa, New Zealand
now at: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
David Plummer
Climate Modelling Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, QC, Canada
Robert W. Portmann
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
retired
Karen H. Rosenlof
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
retired
Alexei Rozanov
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Viktoria F. Sofieva
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Johannes Staehelin
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Timofei Sukhodolov
Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
Kleareti Tourpali
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Ronald J. Van der A
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
H. J. Ray Wang
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Krzysztof Wargan
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD, USA
Shingo Watanabe
Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Advanced Institute for Marine Ecosystem Change (WPI-AIMEC), Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
Mark Weber
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Jeannette D. Wild
ESSIC/UMD & NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, MD, USA
retired
Yousuke Yamashita
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan
Jerry Ziemke
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, USA
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Cited
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Stratospheric ozone projections under sulfur-based stratospheric aerosol injection: Insights from the multi-model G6-1.5K-SAI experiment E. Bednarz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-12751-2026
- Consistency between zonal mean stratospheric and total column ozone trends (2000–2024) B. Auffarth et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13359-2026
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Stratospheric ozone projections under sulfur-based stratospheric aerosol injection: Insights from the multi-model G6-1.5K-SAI experiment E. Bednarz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-12751-2026
- Consistency between zonal mean stratospheric and total column ozone trends (2000–2024) B. Auffarth et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13359-2026
Latest update: 02 Oct 2026
Short summary
This study investigates tropical ozone changes in models and satellite observations to determine how well they agree and whether observations can constrain model projections. At some levels, satellite records disagree significantly on the magnitude of ozone changes. While early and late 21st century trends are correlated across models, suggesting a potential emergent constraint, the spread in observations means they are unable to provide guidance on the credibility of model projections.
This study investigates tropical ozone changes in models and satellite observations to determine...
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