Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Apr 2025
Research article |
| 10 Apr 2025
| 10 Apr 2025
Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Section Operations & Environment, Delft, the Netherlands
Volker Grewe
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Section Operations & Environment, Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
Vanessa Santos Gabriel, Luca Bugliaro, Mara Montag, Sabrina Ries, Ziming Wang, Kai Widmaier, Matteo Arico, Simon Unterstrasser, Johanna Mayer, Deniz Menekay, Andreas Marsing, Elena de la Torre Castro, Liam Megill, Monika Scheibe, and Christiane Voigt
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-740, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We provide observations of the geostationary Meteosat satellite with contrails labeled by three people complemented with detailed cloud information. Contrails influence climate but are hard to identify in satellite imagery. With this study, we support contrail detection development and evaluation, stress the subjectivity of human labeling and reveal which meteorological conditions highlight or hide contrails. This dataset contributes to a better understanding of aviation’s climate impact.
Vanessa Santos Gabriel, Luca Bugliaro, Mara Montag, Sabrina Ries, Ziming Wang, Kai Widmaier, Matteo Arico, Simon Unterstrasser, Johanna Mayer, Deniz Menekay, Andreas Marsing, Elena de la Torre Castro, Liam Megill, Monika Scheibe, and Christiane Voigt
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-740, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We provide observations of the geostationary Meteosat satellite with contrails labeled by three people complemented with detailed cloud information. Contrails influence climate but are hard to identify in satellite imagery. With this study, we support contrail detection development and evaluation, stress the subjectivity of human labeling and reveal which meteorological conditions highlight or hide contrails. This dataset contributes to a better understanding of aviation’s climate impact.
Volker Grewe, Simon Blakey, Florian Linke, Sigrun Matthes, Jan Middel, Radu Mirea, Ayce Celikel, David Raper, Feijia Yin, and Xin Zhao
J. Env. Com. Air Transp. Sys., 1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-1-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-1-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Journal of Environmentally Compatible Air Transport System (JECATS) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to aspects of the air transport system with a focus on the environmental implications. JECATS combines areas of aerospace engineering, fuels, environmental analysis, climate change, economics, aviation climate mitigation, circularity and policy analysis. It includes aviation transport-related aspects and environmental effects from local to global scales.
Monica Sharma, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Anja Schmidt, Daniel Sauer, and Volker Grewe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8485–8510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8485-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8485-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A plume model is developed to simulate aerosol microphysics in a dispersing aircraft plume, including interactions between ice crystals and aerosols in vortex regime. Compared to an instantaneous dispersion approach, the plume approach estimates 15 % lower aviation aerosol number concentrations, due to more efficient coagulation at plume scale. The model is sensitive to background conditions and initialization parameters, such as ice crystal number concentration and fuel sulfur content.
Hannes Bruder, Robin Niclas Thor, Malte Niklaß, Katrin Dahlmann, Roland Eichinger, Florian Linke, Volker Grewe, Simon Unterstrasser, and Sigrun Matthes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4700, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an easy-to-use tool to estimate the per-flight climate effect of CO2 and non-CO2 emissions, based only on aircraft size as well as origin and destination airports. The implemented model results from a comparison of Multiple and Symbolic Regression approaches and exhibits a mean relative error of 21 % with respect to climate response model results. The simplified method is designed for climate footprint assessment and covers jet-powered passenger aircraft with over 20 seats.
Jin Maruhashi, Mattia Righi, Monica Sharma, Johannes Hendricks, Patrick Jöckel, Volker Grewe, and Irene C. Dedoussi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4204, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a large source of uncertainty in assessing aviation’s climate impact. We develop, evaluate and present AIRTRAC v2.0 within the EMAC modeling framework, which enables tracking of aviation-emitted SO2 and H2SO4 as they are chemically transformed into sulfate aerosols and transported in the atmosphere. The development allows the identification of atmospheric regions with elevated potential for aerosol–cloud interactions due to sulfur emissions from aircraft.
Patrick Peter, Sigrun Matthes, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, Luca Bugliaro, Andreas Giez, Martina Krämer, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5911–5934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines how well the global climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) predicts contrail formation by analysing temperature and humidity – two key factors for contrail development and persistence. The model underestimates temperature, leading to an overprediction of contrail formation and larger ice-supersaturated regions. Adjusting the model improves temperature accuracy but adds uncertainties. Better predictions of contrail formation areas can help optimise flight tracks to reduce aviation's climate effect.
Jurriaan A. van 't Hoff, Didier Hauglustaine, Johannes Pletzer, Agnieszka Skowron, Volker Grewe, Sigrun Matthes, Maximilian M. Meuser, Robin N. Thor, and Irene C. Dedoussi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2515–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2515-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Civil supersonic aircraft may return in the near future, and their emissions could lead to atmospheric changes which are detrimental to public health and the climate. We use four atmospheric chemistry models and show that emissions from a future supersonic aircraft fleet increase stratospheric nitrogen and water vapor levels, while depleting the global ozone column and leading to increases in radiative forcing. Their impacts can be reduced by reducing NOx emissions or the cruise altitude.
Markus Kilian, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Mariano Mertens, Andreas Zahn, and Helmut Ziereis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13503–13523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic emissions are a major source of precursors of tropospheric ozone. As ozone formation is highly non-linear, we apply a global–regional chemistry–climate model with a source attribution method (tagging) to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone. Our analysis shows that the contribution of European anthropogenic emissions largely increases during large ozone periods, indicating that emissions from these sectors drive ozone values.
Mariano Mertens, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Johannes Hendricks, Patrick Jöckel, Anna Lanteri, Sigrun Matthes, Vanessa S. Rieger, Mattia Righi, and Robin N. Thor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12079–12106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified the contributions of land transport, shipping, and aviation emissions to tropospheric ozone; its radiative forcing; and the reductions of the methane lifetime using chemistry-climate model simulations. The contributions were analysed for the conditions of 2015 and for three projections for the year 2050. The results highlight the challenges of mitigating ozone formed by emissions of the transport sector, caused by the non-linearitiy of the ozone chemistry and the long lifetime.
Federica Castino, Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Hiroshi Yamashita, Sigrun Matthes, Simone Dietmüller, Sabine Baumann, Manuel Soler, Abolfazl Simorgh, Maximilian Mendiguchia Meuser, Florian Linke, and Benjamin Lührs
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4031–4052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce SolFinder 1.0, a decision-making tool to select trade-offs between different objective functions for optimal aircraft trajectories, including fuel use, flight time, NOx emissions, contrail distance, and climate impact. The module is included in the AirTraf 3.0 submodel and uses weather conditions simulated by the EMAC atmospheric model. This paper focuses on the ability of SolFinder to identify eco-efficient trajectories, reducing a flight's climate impact at limited cost penalties.
Johannes Pletzer and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1743–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Very fast aircraft can travel at 30–40 km altitude and are designed to use liquid hydrogen as fuel instead of kerosene. Depending on their flight altitude, the impact of these aircraft on the atmosphere and climate can change very much. Our results show that a variation inflight latitude can have a considerably higher change in impact compared to a variation in flight altitude. Atmospheric air transport and polar stratospheric clouds play an important role in hypersonic aircraft emissions.
Sigrun Matthes, Simone Dietmüller, Katrin Dahlmann, Christine Frömming, Patrick Peter, Hiroshi Yamashita, Volker Grewe, Feijia Yin, and Federica Castino
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-92, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Aviation aims to reduce its climate effect by identifying alternative climate-optimized aircraft trajectories. Such routing strategies requires a dedicated meteorological service in order to inform on regions of the atmosphere where aviation non-CO2 emissions have a large climate effect, e.g. by contrail formation or nitrogen-oxide (NOx)-induced ozone formation. This study presents calibration factors for individual non-CO2 effects by comparing with the climate response model AirClim.
Elena De La Torre Castro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Armin Afchine, Volker Grewe, Valerian Hahn, Simon Kirschler, Martina Krämer, Johannes Lucke, Nicole Spelten, Heini Wernli, Martin Zöger, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13167–13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show the differences in the microphysical properties between high-latitude (HL) cirrus and mid-latitude (ML) cirrus over the Arctic, North Atlantic, and central Europe during summer. The in situ measurements are combined with backward trajectories to investigate the influence of the region on cloud formation. We show that HL cirrus are characterized by a lower concentration of larger ice crystals when compared to ML cirrus.
Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Hiroshi Yamashita, Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Christian Weder, Volker Grewe, Feijia Yin, and Federica Castino
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4405–4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-optimized aircraft trajectories avoid atmospheric regions with a large climate impact due to aviation emissions. This requires spatially and temporally resolved information on aviation's climate impact. We propose using algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) for CO2 and non-CO2 effects (ozone, methane, water vapor, contrail cirrus). Merged aCCFs combine individual aCCFs by assuming aircraft-specific parameters and climate metrics. Technically this is done with a Python library.
Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Daniel González-Arribas, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Hiroshi Yamashita, Feijia Yin, Federica Castino, Volker Grewe, and Sabine Baumann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3723–3748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses the robust climate optimal trajectory planning problem under uncertain meteorological conditions within the structured airspace. Based on the optimization methodology, a Python library has been developed, which can be accessed using the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7121862. The developed tool is capable of providing robust trajectories taking into account all probable realizations of meteorological conditions provided by an EPS computationally very fast.
Robin N. Thor, Malte Niklaß, Katrin Dahlmann, Florian Linke, Volker Grewe, and Sigrun Matthes
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-126, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a simplied method to estimate the climate effects of single flights through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, exclusively based on the aircraft seat category as well as the origin and destination airports. The derived climate effect functions exhibit a mean relative error of only 15 % with respect to results from a climate response model. The method is designed for climate footprint assessments and covers most commerical airlines with seat capacities starting from 101 passengers.
Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Federica Castino, Pratik Rao, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Simone Dietmüller, Christine Frömming, Hiroshi Yamashita, Patrick Peter, Emma Klingaman, Keith P. Shine, Benjamin Lührs, and Florian Linke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3313–3334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a newly developed submodel ACCF V1.0 based on the MESSy 2.53.0 infrastructure. The ACCF V1.0 is based on the prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) v1.0 to enable climate-optimized flight trajectories. One highlight of this paper is that we describe a consistent full set of aCCFs formulas with respect to fuel scenario and metrics. We demonstrate the usage of the ACCF submodel using AirTraf V2.0 to optimize trajectories for cost and climate impact.
Robin N. Thor, Mariano Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Steven Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1459–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between two versions of a data product which is widely used by researchers. From the available documentation, we do not expect such an inconsistency. We run a chemistry–climate model to compute the effect of the inconsistency in emissions on atmospheric chemistry and radiation and find that the radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6 % higher when using the less recent version of the data.
Johannes Pletzer, Didier Hauglustaine, Yann Cohen, Patrick Jöckel, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14323–14354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Very fast aircraft can travel long distances in extremely short times and can fly at high altitudes (15 to 35 km). These aircraft emit water vapour, nitrogen oxides, and hydrogen. Water vapour emissions remain for months to several years at these altitudes and have an important impact on temperature. We investigate two aircraft fleets flying at 26 and 35 km. Ozone is depleted more, and the water vapour perturbation and temperature change are larger for the aircraft flying at 35 km.
Jin Maruhashi, Volker Grewe, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, and Irene C. Dedoussi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14253–14282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aviation NOx emissions lead to the formation of ozone in the atmosphere in the short term, which has a climate warming effect. This study uses global-scale simulations to characterize the transport patterns between NOx emissions at an altitude of ~ 10.4 km and the resulting ozone. Results show a strong spatial and temporal dependence of NOx in disturbing atmospheric O3 concentrations, with the location that is most impacted in terms of warming not necessarily coinciding with the emission region.
Vanessa Simone Rieger and Volker Grewe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5883–5903, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Road traffic emissions of nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide produce ozone in the troposphere and thus influence Earth's climate. To assess the ozone response to a broad range of mitigation strategies for road traffic, we developed a new chemistry–climate response model called TransClim. It is based on lookup tables containing climate–response relations and thus is able to quickly determine the climate response of a mitigation option.
Christine Frömming, Volker Grewe, Sabine Brinkop, Patrick Jöckel, Amund S. Haslerud, Simon Rosanka, Jesper van Manen, and Sigrun Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9151–9172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of weather situations on non-CO2 aviation climate impact is investigated to identify systematic weather-related sensitivities. If aircraft avoid the most sensitive areas, climate impact might be reduced. Enhanced significance is found for emission in relation to high-pressure systems, jet stream, polar night, and tropopause altitude. The results represent a comprehensive data set for studies aiming at weather-dependent flight trajectory optimization to reduce total climate impact.
Cited articles
Agarwal, A., Meijer, V. R., Eastham, S. D., Speth, R. L., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Reanalysis-Driven Simulations May Overestimate Persistent Contrail Formation by 100 %–250 %, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 014045, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac38d9, 2022. a
Appleman, H.: The Formation of Exhaust Condensation Trails by Jet Aircraft, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 34, 14–20, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-34.1.14, 1953. a
Barton, D. I., Hall, C. A., and Oldfield, M. K.: Design of a Hydrogen Aircraft for Zero Persistent Contrails, Aerospace, 10, 688, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace10080688, 2023. a
Benetatos, C., Eleftheratos, K., Gierens, K., and Zerefos, C.: A Statistically Significant Increase in Ice Supersaturation in the Atmosphere in the Past 40 Years, Scientific Reports, 14, 24760, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-75756-9, 2024. a
Bier, A. and Burkhardt, U.: Variability in Contrail Ice Nucleation and Its Dependence on Soot Number Emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 3384–3400, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029155, 2019. a
Bier, A., Unterstrasser, S., and Vancassel, X.: Box model trajectory studies of contrail formation using a particle-based cloud microphysics scheme, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-823-2022, 2022. a, b
Bier, A., Unterstrasser, S., Zink, J., Hillenbrand, D., Jurkat-Witschas, T., and Lottermoser, A.: Contrail formation on ambient aerosol particles for aircraft with hydrogen combustion: a box model trajectory study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2319–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2319-2024, 2024. a, b, c, d
Bock, L. and Burkhardt, U.: Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8163–8174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8163-2019, 2019. a, b
Bräuer, T., Voigt, C., Sauer, D., Kaufmann, S., Hahn, V., Scheibe, M., Schlager, H., Huber, F., Le Clercq, P., Moore, R. H., and Anderson, B. E.: Reduced ice number concentrations in contrails from low-aromatic biofuel blends, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16817–16826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16817-2021, 2021. a
Brock, C. A., Froyd, K. D., Dollner, M., Williamson, C. J., Schill, G., Murphy, D. M., Wagner, N. J., Kupc, A., Jimenez, J. L., Campuzano-Jost, P., Nault, B. A., Schroder, J. C., Day, D. A., Price, D. J., Weinzierl, B., Schwarz, J. P., Katich, J. M., Wang, S., Zeng, L., Weber, R., Dibb, J., Scheuer, E., Diskin, G. S., DiGangi, J. P., Bui, T., Dean-Day, J. M., Thompson, C. R., Peischl, J., Ryerson, T. B., Bourgeois, I., Daube, B. C., Commane, R., and Wofsy, S. C.: Ambient aerosol properties in the remote atmosphere from global-scale in situ measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15023–15063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15023-2021, 2021. a
Burkhardt, U. and Kärcher, B.: Global Radiative Forcing from Contrail Cirrus, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 54–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1068, 2011. a
Burkhardt, U., Bock, L., and Bier, A.: Mitigating the Contrail Cirrus Climate Impact by Reducing Aircraft Soot Number Emissions, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1, 37, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0046-4, 2018. a
Caiazzo, F., Agarwal, A., Speth, R. L., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Impact of Biofuels on Contrail Warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 114013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa893b, 2017. a
Chen, C.-C. and Gettelman, A.: Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7317–7333, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7317-2016, 2016. a, b
Filippone, A.: Assessment of Aircraft Contrail Avoidance Strategies, J. Aircraft, 52, 872–877, https://doi.org/10.2514/1.C033176, 2015. a
German Aerospace Center: DEPA 2050 aviation emission inventories, 1.0.0, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11442323, 2024. a
Gierens, K., Lim, L., and Eleftheratos, K.: A Review of Various Strategies for Contrail Avoidance, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010001, 2008. a
Gierens, K., Matthes, S., Rohs, S., and Susanne Rohs: How Well Can Persistent Contrails Be Predicted, Aerospace, 7, 169, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7120169, 2020. a, b, c, d
Grewe, V., Plohr, M., Cerino, G., Muzio, M. D., Deremaux, Y., Galerneau, M., Martin, P. d. S., Chaika, T., Hasselrot, A., Tengzelius, U., and Korovkin, V. D.: Estimates of the Climate Impact of Future Small-Scale Supersonic Transport Aircraft – Results from the HISAC EU-project, Aeronaut. J., 114, 199–206, https://doi.org/10.1017/S000192400000364X, 2010. a
Grewe, V., Champougny, T., Matthes, S., Frömming, C., Brinkop, S., Søvde, O. A., Irvine, E. A., and Halscheidt, L.: Reduction of the Air Traffic's Contribution to Climate Change: A REACT4C Case Study, Atmos. Environ., 94, 616–625, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.05.059, 2014. a
Grewe, V., Bock, L., Burkhardt, U., Dahlmann, K., Gierens, K., Hüttenhofer, L., Unterstrasser, S., Rao, A. G., Bhat, A., Yin, F., Reichel, T. G., Paschereit, O., and Levy, Y.: Assessing the Climate Impact of the AHEAD Multi-Fuel Blended Wing Body, Meteorol. Z., 26, 711–725, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0758, 2017a. a, b
Grewe, V., Dahlmann, K., Flink, J., Frömming, C., Ghosh, R., Gierens, K., Heller, R., Hendricks, J., Jöckel, P., Kaufmann, S., Kölker, K., Linke, F., Luchkova, T., Lührs, B., Van Manen, J., Matthes, S., Minikin, A., Niklaß, M., Plohr, M., Righi, M., Rosanka, S., Schmitt, A., Schumann, U., Terekhov, I., Unterstrasser, S., Vázquez-Navarro, M., Voigt, C., Wicke, K., Yamashita, H., Zahn, A., and Ziereis, H.: Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project, Aerospace, 4, 34, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace4030034, 2017b. a
Grewe, V., Matthes, S., Frömming, C., Brinkop, S., Jöckel, P., Gierens, K., Champougny, T., Fuglestvedt, J., Haslerud, A., Irvine, E., and Shine, K.: Feasibility of Climate-Optimized Air Traffic Routing for Trans-Atlantic Flights, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 034003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ba0, 2017c. a
Haywood, J. M., Allan, R. P., Bornemann, J., Forster, P. M., Francis, P. N., Milton, S., Rädel, G., Rap, A., Shine, K. P., and Thorpe, R.: A Case Study of the Radiative Forcing of Persistent Contrails Evolving into Contrail-induced Cirrus, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, 2009JD012 650, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012650, 2009. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., De Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 Global Reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2023. a
Hofer, S., Gierens, K., and Rohs, S.: Contrail Formation and Persistence Conditions for Alternative Fuels, Meteorol. Z., 33, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2024/1178, 2024a. a, b
Irvine, E. A. and Shine, K. P.: Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 555–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, 2015. a
Kaiser, S., Schmitz, O., Ziegler, P., and Klingels, H.: The Water-Enhanced Turbofan as Enabler for Climate-Neutral Aviation, Applied Sciences, 12, 12431, https://doi.org/10.3390/app122312431, 2022. a
Kärcher, B. and Yu, F.: Role of Aircraft Soot Emissions in Contrail Formation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036649, 2009. a
Kärcher, B., Burkhardt, U., Bier, A., Bock, L., and Ford, I. J.: The Microphysical Pathway to Contrail Formation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 7893–7927, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023491, 2015. a, b, c
Kaufmann, S., Dischl, R., and Voigt, C.: Regional and Seasonal Impact of Hydrogen Propulsion Systems on Potential Contrail Cirrus Cover, Atmospheric Environment: X, 24, 100298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100298, 2024. a, b, c, d
Krämer, M., Schiller, C., Afchine, A., Bauer, R., Gensch, I., Mangold, A., Schlicht, S., Spelten, N., Sitnikov, N., Borrmann, S., de Reus, M., and Spichtinger, P.: Ice supersaturations and cirrus cloud crystal numbers, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 3505–3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-3505-2009, 2009. a
Lee, D., Fahey, D., Skowron, A., Allen, M., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., Doherty, S., Freeman, S., Forster, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Gettelman, A., De León, R., Lim, L., Lund, M., Millar, R., Owen, B., Penner, J., Pitari, G., Prather, M., Sausen, R., and Wilcox, L.: The Contribution of Global Aviation to Anthropogenic Climate Forcing for 2000 to 2018, Atmos. Environ., 244, 117834, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834, 2021. a, b, c
Leipold, A., Aptsiauri, G., Ayazkhani, A., Bauder, U., Becker, R.-G., Berghof, R., Claßen, A., Dadashi, A., Dahlmann, K., Dzikus, N., Flüthmann, N., Grewe, V., Göhlich, L., Grimme, W., Günther, Y., Jaksche, R., Jung, M., Knabe, F., Kutne, P., Le Clercq, P., Pabst, H., Poggel, S., Staggat, M., Wicke, K., Wolters, F., Zanger, J., and Zill, T.: DEPA 2050 – Development Pathways for Aviation up to 2050 (Final Report), Berichtsreihe, https://elib.dlr.de/142185/ (last access: 5 February 2025), 2021. a
Marenco, A., Thouret, V., Nédélec, P., Smit, H., Helten, M., Kley, D., Karcher, F., Simon, P., Law, K., Pyle, J., Poschmann, G., von Wrede, R., Hume, C., and Cook, T.: Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-service Aircraft: The MOZAIC Airborne Program, an Overview, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 25631–25642, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD00977, 1998. a
Matthes, S., Lim, L., Burkhardt, U., Dahlmann, K., Dietmüller, S., Grewe, V., Haslerud, A. S., Hendricks, J., Owen, B., Pitari, G., Righi, M., and Skowron, A.: Mitigation of Non-CO2 Aviation's Climate Impact by Changing Cruise Altitudes, Aerospace, 8, 36, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8020036, 2021. a, b
Meerkötter, R., Schumann, U., Doelling, D. R., Minnis, P., Nakajima, T., and Tsushima, Y.: Radiative forcing by contrails, Ann. Geophys., 17, 1080–1094, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-999-1080-7, 1999. a
Megill, L. and Grewe, V.: Data and code underlying the publication “Investigating the limiting aircraft design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation”, Version 2, 4TU.ResearchData [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.4121/cdb4e3bb-d6f4-4422-a715-b6187098a314, 2025. a
Moore, R. H., Thornhill, K. L., Weinzierl, B., Sauer, D., D'Ascoli, E., Kim, J., Lichtenstern, M., Scheibe, M., Beaton, B., Beyersdorf, A. J., Barrick, J., Bulzan, D., Corr, C. A., Crosbie, E., Jurkat, T., Martin, R., Riddick, D., Shook, M., Slover, G., Voigt, C., White, R., Winstead, E., Yasky, R., Ziemba, L. D., Brown, A., Schlager, H., and Anderson, B. E.: Biofuel Blending Reduces Particle Emissions from Aircraft Engines at Cruise Conditions, Nature, 543, 411–415, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21420, 2017. a
Petzold, A., Thouret, V., Gerbig, C., Zahn, A., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Gallagher, M., Hermann, M., Pontaud, M., Ziereis, H., Boulanger, D., Marshall, J., Nédélec, P., Smit, H. G. J., Friess, U., Flaud, J.-M., Wahner, A., Cammas, J.-P., Volz-Thomas, A., and Team, I.: Global-Scale Atmosphere Monitoring by in-Service Aircraft – Current Achievements and Future Prospects of the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS, Tellus B, 67, 28452, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v67.28452, 2015. a
Pouzolz, R., Schmitz, O., and Klingels, H.: Evaluation of the Climate Impact Reduction Potential of the Water-Enhanced Turbofan (WET) Concept, Aerospace, 8, 59, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8030059, 2021. a
Rap, A., Feng, W., Forster, P., Marsh, D., and Murray, B.: The climate impact of contrails from hydrogen combustion and fuel cell aircraft, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5520, 2023. a, b
Reutter, P., Neis, P., Rohs, S., and Sauvage, B.: Ice supersaturated regions: properties and validation of ERA-Interim reanalysis with IAGOS in situ water vapour measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 787–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-787-2020, 2020. a, b
Rojo, C., Vancassel, X., Mirabel, P., Ponche, J.-L., and Garnier, F.: Impact of Alternative Jet Fuels on Aircraft-Induced Aerosols, Fuel, 144, 335–341, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2014.12.021, 2015. a
Rosenow, J. and Fricke, H.: Individual Condensation Trails in Aircraft Trajectory Optimization, Sustainability, 11, 6082, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216082, 2019. a
Sanogo, S., Boucher, O., Bellouin, N., Borella, A., Wolf, K., and Rohs, S.: Variability in the properties of the distribution of the relative humidity with respect to ice: implications for contrail formation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5495–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, 2024. a
Sausen, R., Hofer, S., Gierens, K., Bugliaro, L., Ehrmanntraut, R., Sitova, I., Walczak, K., Burridge-Diesing, A., Bowman, M., and Miller, N.: Can We Successfully Avoid Persistent Contrails by Small Altitude Adjustments of Flights in the Real World?, Meteorol. Z., 33, 83–98, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2023/1157, 2024. a
Schmidt, E.: Die Entstehung von Eisnebel aus den Auspuffgasen von Flugmotoren, Schriften der Deutschen Akademie der Luftfahrtforschung, 44, 1–15, 1941. a
Schmitz, O., Klingels, H., and Kufner, P.: Aero Engine Concepts Beyond 2030: Part 1 – The Steam Injecting and Recovering Aero Engine, J. Eng. Gas Turb. Power, 143, 021001, https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4048985, 2021. a
Schumann, U.: On Conditions for Contrail Formation from Aircraft Exhausts, Meteorol. Z., 5, 4–23, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/5/1996/4, 1996. a, b, c, d
Schumann, U.: A contrail cirrus prediction model, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 543–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-543-2012, 2012. a
Schumann, U. and Heymsfield, A. J.: On the Life Cycle of Individual Contrails and Contrail Cirrus, Meteor. Mon., 58, 3.1–3.24, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-16-0005.1, 2017. a
Schumann, U., Poll, I., Teoh, R., Koelle, R., Spinielli, E., Molloy, J., Koudis, G. S., Baumann, R., Bugliaro, L., Stettler, M., and Voigt, C.: Air traffic and contrail changes over Europe during COVID-19: a model study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7429–7450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021, 2021. a
Teoh, R., Schumann, U., Majumdar, A., and Stettler, M. E. J.: Mitigating the Climate Forcing of Aircraft Contrails by Small-Scale Diversions and Technology Adoption, Environ. Sci. Technol., 54, 2941–2950, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b05608, 2020. a, b
Teoh, R., Schumann, U., Gryspeerdt, E., Shapiro, M., Molloy, J., Koudis, G., Voigt, C., and Stettler, M. E. J.: Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10919–10935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022, 2022a. a, b
Teoh, R., Schumann, U., Voigt, C., Schripp, T., Shapiro, M., Engberg, Z., Molloy, J., Koudis, G., and Stettler, M. E. J.: Targeted Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to Maximize Climate Benefits, Environ. Sci. Technol., 56, 17246–17255, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c05781, 2022b. a
Teoh, R., Engberg, Z., Schumann, U., Voigt, C., Shapiro, M., Rohs, S., and Stettler, M. E. J.: Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6071–6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, 2024. a, b
Ungeheuer, F., Caudillo, L., Ditas, F., Simon, M., Van Pinxteren, D., Kılıç, D., Rose, D., Jacobi, S., Kürten, A., Curtius, J., and Vogel, A. L.: Nucleation of Jet Engine Oil Vapours Is a Large Source of Aviation-Related Ultrafine Particles, Communications Earth & Environment, 3, 319, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00653-w, 2022. a
Voigt, C., Kleine, J., Sauer, D., Moore, R. H., Bräuer, T., Le Clercq, P., Kaufmann, S., Scheibe, M., Jurkat-Witschas, T., Aigner, M., Bauder, U., Boose, Y., Borrmann, S., Crosbie, E., Diskin, G. S., DiGangi, J., Hahn, V., Heckl, C., Huber, F., Nowak, J. B., Rapp, M., Rauch, B., Robinson, C., Schripp, T., Shook, M., Winstead, E., Ziemba, L., Schlager, H., and Anderson, B. E.: Cleaner Burning Aviation Fuels Can Reduce Contrail Cloudiness, Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 114, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00174-y, 2021. a
Voigt, C., Lelieveld, J., Schlager, H., Schneider, J., Curtius, J., Meerkötter, R., Sauer, D., Bugliaro, L., Bohn, B., Crowley, J. N., Erbertseder, T., Groß, S., Hahn, V., Li, Q., Mertens, M., Pöhlker, M. L., Pozzer, A., Schumann, U., Tomsche, L., Williams, J., Zahn, A., Andreae, M., Borrmann, S., Bräuer, T., Dörich, R., Dörnbrack, A., Edtbauer, A., Ernle, L., Fischer, H., Giez, A., Granzin, M., Grewe, V., Harder, H., Heinritzi, M., Holanda, B. A., Jöckel, P., Kaiser, K., Krüger, O. O., Lucke, J., Marsing, A., Martin, A., Matthes, S., Pöhlker, C., Pöschl, U., Reifenberg, S., Ringsdorf, A., Scheibe, M., Tadic, I., Zauner-Wieczorek, M., Henke, R., and Rapp, M.: Cleaner Skies during the COVID-19 Lockdown, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E1796–E1827, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0012.1, 2022. a
Wang, Z., Bugliaro, L., Gierens, K., Hegglin, M. I., Rohs, S., Petzold, A., Kaufmann, S., and Voigt, C.: Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2845–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, 2025. a
Wilhelm, L., Gierens, K., and Rohs, S.: Meteorological Conditions That Promote Persistent Contrails, Applied Sciences, 12, 4450, https://doi.org/10.3390/app12094450, 2022. a
Wolf, K., Bellouin, N., and Boucher, O.: Long-term upper-troposphere climatology of potential contrail occurrence over the Paris area derived from radiosonde observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 287–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-287-2023, 2023. a, b
Wolf, K., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Rohs, S., and Li, Y.: Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 157–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, 2025. a, b
Yin, F., Grewe, V., and Gierens, K.: Impact of Hybrid-Electric Aircraft on Contrail Coverage, Aerospace, 7, 147, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7100147, 2020. a, b
Yu, F., Kärcher, B., and Anderson, B. E.: Revisiting Contrail Ice Formation: Impact of Primary Soot Particle Sizes and Contribution of Volatile Particles, Environ. Sci. Technol., 58, 17650–17660, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.4c04340, 2024. a
Short summary
This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to existing conventional aircraft.
This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint