Articles | Volume 25, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14353-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14353-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Trends and seasonality of 2019–2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations
Drew C. Pendergrass
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Daniel J. Jacob
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Nicholas Balasus
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Lucas Estrada
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Daniel J. Varon
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
James D. East
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Todd A. Mooring
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Elise Penn
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Hannah Nesser
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
John R. Worden
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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Cited
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Methane intensity and emissions across major oil and gas basins and individual jurisdictions using MethaneSAT observations J. Williams et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5961-2026
- Enhancing the Detection of Potential Anthropogenic Methane Emission Sources in China Using Machine Learning and TROPOMI Observations S. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.6c00115
- 2019–2024 trends in African livestock and wetland emissions as contributors to the global methane rise N. Balasus et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4601-2026
- What is causing the methane surge? E. Nisbet & M. Manning https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aee6226
- Enhanced methane monitoring: a globally harmonized daily 0.1° XCH4 through machine learning-based fusion of GOSAT, GOSAT-2, and TROPOMI J. Keya et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-4313-2026
- Worldwide inference of national methane emissions by inversion of satellite observations with UNFCCC prior estimates J. East et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67122-8
- Incorporating methane isotopologues alters tropical and subtropical methane emission estimates X. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72668-2
- Tropical Wetland Methane Emissions and Trends (2004–2023) Inferred from Landsat-Based Inundated Vegetation Data Z. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c05412
- Quantifying national, state, and oil/gas field methane emissions and trends in the US (2019–2024) through high resolution inversion of satellite observations L. Estrada et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10629-2026
- Attributing 2019–2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations M. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adz9007
- The added value of new ground-based observations in improving China's methane emission quantification H. Zhong et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-4759-2026
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Methane intensity and emissions across major oil and gas basins and individual jurisdictions using MethaneSAT observations J. Williams et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-5961-2026
- Enhancing the Detection of Potential Anthropogenic Methane Emission Sources in China Using Machine Learning and TROPOMI Observations S. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.6c00115
- 2019–2024 trends in African livestock and wetland emissions as contributors to the global methane rise N. Balasus et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4601-2026
- What is causing the methane surge? E. Nisbet & M. Manning https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aee6226
- Enhanced methane monitoring: a globally harmonized daily 0.1° XCH4 through machine learning-based fusion of GOSAT, GOSAT-2, and TROPOMI J. Keya et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-4313-2026
- Worldwide inference of national methane emissions by inversion of satellite observations with UNFCCC prior estimates J. East et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67122-8
- Incorporating methane isotopologues alters tropical and subtropical methane emission estimates X. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72668-2
- Tropical Wetland Methane Emissions and Trends (2004–2023) Inferred from Landsat-Based Inundated Vegetation Data Z. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c05412
- Quantifying national, state, and oil/gas field methane emissions and trends in the US (2019–2024) through high resolution inversion of satellite observations L. Estrada et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10629-2026
- Attributing 2019–2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations M. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adz9007
- The added value of new ground-based observations in improving China's methane emission quantification H. Zhong et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-4759-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 27 Aug 2026
Short summary
We use satellite observations of atmospheric methane, a greenhouse gas, to calculate emissions from both human and natural sources. We find that methane emissions surged in 2020–2021 before declining in 2022–2023. We attribute the surge in large part to emissions from eastern Africa, which experienced large methane-generating floods. Wetland models underestimate emissions in that region, which has led some previous work to incorrectly attribute the African surge in methane emissions to livestock.
We use satellite observations of atmospheric methane, a greenhouse gas, to calculate emissions...
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