Trends and seasonality of 2019–2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations

Pendergrass, Drew C.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Balasus, Nicholas; Estrada, Lucas; Varon, Daniel J.; East, James D.; He, Megan; Mooring, Todd A.; Penn, Elise; Nesser, Hannah; Worden, John R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14353-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 21

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14353-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14353-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 21

Research article

|

03 Nov 2025

Research article |

| 03 Nov 2025

Trends and seasonality of 2019–2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations

Drew C. Pendergrass, Daniel J. Jacob, Nicholas Balasus, Lucas Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, James D. East, Megan He, Todd A. Mooring, Elise Penn, Hannah Nesser, and John R. Worden

Data sets

Replication data for: Trends and seasonality of 2019–2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations Drew C. Pendergrass et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15120761

Global Fuel Exploitation Inventory (GFEI) T. R. Scarpelli and D. J. Jacob https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/HH4EUM

Gridded inventory of Canada's anthropogenic methane emissions for 2018 T. Scarpelli et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CC3KLO

Gridded inventory of Mexico’s anthropogenic methane emissions T. R. Scarpelli et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5FUTWM

GRACE and GRACE-FO Mascon Ocean, Ice, and Hydrology Equivalent Water Height CRI Filtered RL06.3Mv04 D. N. Wiese et al. https://doi.org/10.5067/TEMSC-3JC634

Model code and software

geoschem/geos-chem: GEOS-Chem 14.1.1 B. Yantosca et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7696632

drewpendergrass/CHEEREIO: CHEEREIO v1.3.1 release D. C. Pendergrass et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11534085

Short summary

We use satellite observations of atmospheric methane, a greenhouse gas, to calculate emissions from both human and natural sources. We find that methane emissions surged in 2020–2021 before declining in 2022–2023. We attribute the surge in large part to emissions from eastern Africa, which experienced large methane-generating floods. Wetland models underestimate emissions in that region, which has led some previous work to incorrectly attribute the African surge in methane emissions to livestock.