Articles | Volume 25, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11423-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11423-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 26 Sep 2025
| 26 Sep 2025
Analysis of raindrop size distribution from the double moment cloud microphysics scheme for monsoon over a tropical station
K. S. Apsara
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Tirupati, India
Aravindakshan Jayakumar
National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
Theethai Jacob Anurose
National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
Saji Mohandas
National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
Paul R. Field
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Thara Prabhakaran
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Mahen Konwar
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Vijayapurapu Srinivasa Prasad
National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
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Zhangcheng Pei, Sonya L. Fiddes, Marc D. Mallet, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Simon P. Alexander, Alain Protat, Kalli Furtado, and Paul R. Field
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3541, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Climate models misrepresent Southern Ocean clouds, causing warming biases. Using ship data, we updated a weather model to test how sea spray affects cloud ice. Adding realistic ocean particles prevents deep clouds from freezing too fast, correcting sunlight trasmissions. Yet, shallow clouds remain flawed due to missing moisture. Thus, accurate climate predictions require improving both aerosol-cloud interactions and large-scale weather dynamics.
Ezri E. Alkilani-Brown, Declan L. Finney, Alan M. Blyth, Paul R. Field, Jonathan Crosier, and Chetan R. Deva
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3385, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
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Graupel continues to be one of the most poorly characterised ice particles in deep convective clouds. In situ images are critical for understanding its microphysical development. Consequently, a plethora of independent classification schemes has become commonplace. Here, an independent evaluation of several open-source algorithms was undertaken to assess if they are generalisable. Classifications were then applied to the entire DCMEX campaign, to infer graupel concentrations.
Shivamurthy Yashas, Subodh Kumar Saha, Samir Pokhrel, Mahen Konwar, and Verma Utkarsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4817–4833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4817-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4817-2026, 2026
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This study highlights challenges in estimating seasonal climate predictability using the
perfect modelframework, which assumes only initial conditions cause error. We show that forecasts can exceed the predicted limit, known as the Potential Predictability Limit (PPL), due to model imperfections in simulating physical processes. A new method is proposed to estimate PPL more accurately and avoid such paradoxes.
Masaru Yoshioka, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Amy H. Peace, Jim M. Haywood, Ying Chen, and Paul R. Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4341–4358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4341-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4341-2026, 2026
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We used advanced computer simulations to study how aerosol particles from a volcanic eruption in Iceland affected clouds. The eruption plume increased small droplets, but changes in cloud water and horizontal extent were not clear. Satellite comparisons between plume and non-plume regions can miss volcanic effects due to spatial variability in weather and aerosol, but simulations can isolate the impact by comparing cases with and without the eruption.
Anna Tippett, Paul R. Field, and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4251–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4251-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4251-2026, 2026
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Clouds and their interactions with tiny particles in the air (aerosols) are a large source of uncertainty in climate models. To study Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB), we use ship tracks (changes to clouds from ship pollution). Comparing real ship track data with model results, we find the model struggles under rainy conditions and overestimates effects at high pollution levels, suggesting it needs improvement for reliable MCB simulations.
Shweta Bhati, Theethai-Jacob Anurose, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Hamish Gordon, Anthony Jones, Saji Mohandas, and Vijapurapu Srinivasa Prasad
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6088, 2026
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This study shows that aerosols that absorb or scatter sunlight play a crucial role in the growth and sustenance of fog, with the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) as a case study. Five simulations a numerical weather prediction model exhibited that absorbing aerosols have a greater influence on shaping fog over the IGP compared to scattering aerosols. These insights can help with fog forecasts and pollution-control policies over IGP, which are known for high pollution and dense fog episodes in winters.
Xinyi Huang, Paul R. Field, Ross J. Herbert, Benjamin J. Murray, Floortje van den Heuvel, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Rachel W. N. Sansom, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-311, 2026
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Aerosol-cloud interactions and ice formation processes are key to modelling mixed-phase clouds in cold-air outbreaks. However, no studies have investigated the joint effects of these processes. Here, we used perturbed parameter ensembles and model emulators to show that these processes have strongly interacting effects on the properties of cold air outbreak clouds. Single sensitivity tests may therefore provide incomplete information about cloud-controlling factors.
Deepak Waman, Julian Meusel, Behrooz Keshtgar, Gabriella Wallentin, Christian Barthlott, Sachin Patade, Sonali Shete, Thara Prabhakaran, Romain Fievet, Declan Finney, Alan Blyth, and Corinna Hoose
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6129, 2026
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We use a weather model with aircraft and satellite data to study ice multiplication in thunderstorms across India, Mexico, Oklahoma, and the Atlantic. This process can create spurious ice particles in clouds, thereby increasing latent and radiative heating that strengthens storms and extends cloud lifetimes. These results improve our understanding of how small-scale ice processes influence large-scale storm behavior and rainfall patterns.
Mengyu Sun, Paul J. Connolly, Paul R. Field, Declan L. Finney, and Alan M. Blyth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 18549–18569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18549-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18549-2025, 2025
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We investigated how extra ice particles form inside tropical storm clouds and how they affect rainfall and sunlight reflection. By using a weather model, we found that these extra ice particles can change how clouds grow, reduce heat escaping to space, and slightly shift where rain falls. This helps improve how weather and climate models predict tropical storms.
Mengyu Sun, Paul J. Connolly, Paul R. Field, Declan L. Finney, and Alan M. Blyth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5665, 2025
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We use a high resolution weather model together with satellite and radar data to study how small particles in the air influence ice and rain in a tropical storm near Darwin. We find that when particle levels are moderate, storm clouds form more ice high in the atmosphere, spread a wider cloud cover, and produce stronger rainfall concentrated in certain regions. These results help improve how weather and climate models represent tropical storms and their rainfall.
Weiyu Zhang, Paul R. Field, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Piers M. Forster, Cyril J. Morcrette, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 14153–14166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-14153-2025, 2025
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Contrail cirrus is the largest, yet the most uncertain, aviation climate impact term. A newly implemented contrail cirrus scheme in a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme in climate model realistically reproduces the contrail evolution and provides regional forcing estimates within the range reported by other models. The work highlights the importance of initial contrail characteristics and the need for detailed cloud particle representations in climate model contrail simulations.
Weronika Osmolska, Charles Chemel, Amanda Maycock, and Paul Field
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1221–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1221-2025, 2025
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Extreme cold temperatures have widespread impacts on health, agriculture, infrastructures and the economy. We develop for the first time a methodology to build a catalogue of cold spell events, tracked in space and time. This catalogue is used to examine the behaviour of cold spells and its climatology. The results reveal specific pathways through which cold air affect midlatitudes.
Xinyi Huang, Paul R. Field, Benjamin J. Murray, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Floortje van den Heuvel, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11363–11406, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11363-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11363-2025, 2025
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Cold-air outbreak (CAO) clouds play a vital role in climate prediction. This study explores the responses of CAO clouds to aerosols and ice production under different environmental conditions. We found that CAO cloud responses vary with cloud temperature and are strongly controlled by the liquid–ice partitioning in these clouds, suggesting the importance of good representations of cloud microphysics properties to predict the behaviours of CAO clouds in a warming climate.
Pratapaditya Ghosh, Ian Boutle, Paul Field, Adrian Hill, Marie Mazoyer, Katherine J. Evans, Salil Mahajan, Hyun-Gyu Kang, Min Xu, Wei Zhang, and Hamish Gordon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11157–11182, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11157-2025, 2025
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We study the life cycle of fog events in Europe using a weather and climate model. By incorporating droplet formation and growth driven by radiative cooling, our model better simulates the total liquid water in foggy atmospheric columns. We show that both adiabatic and radiative cooling play significant, often equally important, roles in driving droplet formation and growth. We discuss strategies to address droplet number overpredictions by improving model physics and addressing model artifacts.
Declan L. Finney, Alan M. Blyth, Paul R. Field, Martin I. Daily, Benjamin J. Murray, Mengyu Sun, Paul J. Connolly, Zhiqiang Cui, and Steven Böing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10907–10929, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10907-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10907-2025, 2025
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We present observation-informed modelling from the Deep Convective Microphysics Experiment (DCMEX) to study how environmental conditions and cloud processes affect anvil cloud albedo and radiation. Aerosols influencing cloud droplets or influencing ice formation yield varying radiative effects. We introduce fingerprint metrics to discern these effects. Using detailed observations and modelling, we offer insights into high-cloud radiative effects and feedbacks.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, 2025
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Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain, contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate, for the first time, the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Erin N. Raif, Sarah L. Barr, Mark D. Tarn, James B. McQuaid, Martin I. Daily, Steven J. Abel, Paul A. Barrett, Keith N. Bower, Paul R. Field, Kenneth S. Carslaw, and Benjamin J. Murray
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14045–14072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14045-2024, 2024
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Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) allow ice to form in clouds at temperatures warmer than −35°C. We measured INP concentrations over the Norwegian and Barents seas in weather events where cold air is ejected from the Arctic. These concentrations were among the highest measured in the Arctic. It is likely that the INPs were transported to the Arctic from distant regions. These results show it is important to consider hemispheric-scale INP processes to understand INP concentrations in the Arctic.
Declan L. Finney, Alan M. Blyth, Martin Gallagher, Huihui Wu, Graeme J. Nott, Michael I. Biggerstaff, Richard G. Sonnenfeld, Martin Daily, Dan Walker, David Dufton, Keith Bower, Steven Böing, Thomas Choularton, Jonathan Crosier, James Groves, Paul R. Field, Hugh Coe, Benjamin J. Murray, Gary Lloyd, Nicholas A. Marsden, Michael Flynn, Kezhen Hu, Navaneeth M. Thamban, Paul I. Williams, Paul J. Connolly, James B. McQuaid, Joseph Robinson, Zhiqiang Cui, Ralph R. Burton, Gordon Carrie, Robert Moore, Steven J. Abel, Dave Tiddeman, and Graydon Aulich
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2141–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, 2024
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The DCMEX (Deep Convective Microphysics Experiment) project undertook an aircraft- and ground-based measurement campaign of New Mexico deep convective clouds during July–August 2022. The campaign coordinated a broad range of instrumentation measuring aerosol, cloud physics, radar signals, thermodynamics, dynamics, electric fields, and weather. The project's objectives included the utilisation of these data with satellite observations to study the anvil cloud radiative effect.
Mahen Konwar, Benjamin Werden, Edward C. Fortner, Sudarsan Bera, Mercy Varghese, Subharthi Chowdhuri, Kurt Hibert, Philip Croteau, John Jayne, Manjula Canagaratna, Neelam Malap, Sandeep Jayakumar, Shivsai A. Dixit, Palani Murugavel, Duncan Axisa, Darrel Baumgardner, Peter F. DeCarlo, Doug R. Worsnop, and Thara Prabhakaran
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2387–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2387-2024, 2024
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In a warm cloud seeding experiment hygroscopic particles are released to alter cloud processes to induce early raindrops. During the Cloud–Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment, airborne mini aerosol mass spectrometers analyse the particles on which clouds form. The seeded clouds showed higher concentrations of chlorine and potassium, the oxidizing agents of flares. Small cloud droplet concentrations increased, and seeding particles were detected in deep cloud depths.
Nair Krishnan Kala, Narayana Sarma Anand, Mohanan R. Manoj, Srinivasan Prasanth, Harshavardhana S. Pathak, Thara Prabhakaran, Pramod D. Safai, Krishnaswamy K. Moorthy, and Sreedharan K. Satheesh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12801–12819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12801-2023, 2023
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We present a 3D data set of aerosol black carbon over the Indian mainland by assimilating data from surface, aircraft, and balloon measurements, along with multi-satellite observations. Radiative transfer computations using height-resolved aerosol absorption show higher warming in the free troposphere and will have large implications for atmospheric stability. This data set will help reduce the uncertainty in aerosol radiative effects in climate model simulations over the Indian region.
Gillian Young McCusker, Jutta Vüllers, Peggy Achtert, Paul Field, Jonathan J. Day, Richard Forbes, Ruth Price, Ewan O'Connor, Michael Tjernström, John Prytherch, Ryan Neely III, and Ian M. Brooks
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4819–4847, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4819-2023, 2023
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In this study, we show that recent versions of two atmospheric models – the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System – overestimate Arctic cloud fraction within the lower troposphere by comparison with recent remote-sensing measurements made during the Arctic Ocean 2018 expedition. The overabundance of cloud is interlinked with the modelled thermodynamic structure, with strong negative temperature biases coincident with these overestimated cloud layers.
Mike Bush, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Huw Lewis, Adrian Lock, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Belinda Roux, Stuart Webster, and Mark Weeks
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1713–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, 2023
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Building on the baseline of RAL1, the RAL2 science configuration is used for regional modelling around the UM partnership and in operations at the Met Office. RAL2 has been tested in different parts of the world including Australia, India and the UK. RAL2 increases medium and low cloud amounts in the mid-latitudes compared to RAL1, leading to improved cloud forecasts and a reduced diurnal cycle of screen temperature. There is also a reduction in the frequency of heavier precipitation rates.
Ruth Price, Andrea Baccarini, Julia Schmale, Paul Zieger, Ian M. Brooks, Paul Field, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2927–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2927-2023, 2023
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Arctic clouds can control how much energy is absorbed by the surface or reflected back to space. Using a computer model of the atmosphere we investigated the formation of atmospheric particles that allow cloud droplets to form. We found that particles formed aloft are transported to the lowest part of the Arctic atmosphere and that this is a key source of particles. Our results have implications for the way Arctic clouds will behave in the future as climate change continues to impact the region.
Kalli Furtado and Paul Field
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3391–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3391-2022, 2022
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The complex processes involved mean that no simple answer to this
question has so far been discovered: do aerosols increase or decrease precipitation? Using high-resolution weather simulations, we find a self-similar property of rainfall that is not affected by aerosols. Using this invariant, we can collapse all our simulations to a single curve. So, although aerosol effects on rain are many, there may be a universal constraint on the number of degrees of freedom needed to represent them.
Zhiqiang Cui, Alan Blyth, Yahui Huang, Gary Lloyd, Thomas Choularton, Keith Bower, Paul Field, Rachel Hawker, and Lindsay Bennett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1649–1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1649-2022, 2022
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High concentrations of ice particles were observed at temperatures greater than about –8 C. The default scheme of the secondary ice production cannot explain the high concentrations. Relaxing the conditions for secondary ice production or considering dust aerosol alone is insufficient to produce the observed amount of ice particles. It is likely that multi-thermals play an important role in producing very high concentrations of secondary ice particles in some tropical clouds.
Rachel E. Hawker, Annette K. Miltenberger, Jill S. Johnson, Jonathan M. Wilkinson, Adrian A. Hill, Ben J. Shipway, Paul R. Field, Benjamin J. Murray, and Ken S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17315–17343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17315-2021, 2021
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We find that ice-nucleating particles (INPs), aerosols that can initiate the freezing of cloud droplets, cause substantial changes to the properties of radiatively important convectively generated anvil cirrus. The number concentration of INPs had a large effect on ice crystal number concentration while the INP temperature dependence controlled ice crystal size and cloud fraction. The results indicate information on INP number and source is necessary for the representation of cloud glaciation.
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Short summary
Science has made significant strides in weather prediction, especially for intense tropical rainfall that can lead to floods and landslides. Our study aims to improve monsoon rainfall forecasts by analyzing raindrop sizes. Using a new approach to model raindrop growth, we achieved a more accurate depiction of large rainfall events. These improvements can be generalized to enhance early warning systems, offering reliable predictions that help reduce risks from severe tropical weather events.
Science has made significant strides in weather prediction, especially for intense tropical...
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