Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7227-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jun 2024
Research article |
| 25 Jun 2024
| 25 Jun 2024
Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases
Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (EOAS) Thrust, Function Hub, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Massimo A. Bollasina
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Laura J. Wilcox
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Related authors
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Qiuyan Du, Chun Zhao, Mingshuai Zhang, Xue Dong, Yu Chen, Zhen Liu, Zhiyuan Hu, Qiang Zhang, Yubin Li, Renmin Yuan, and Shiguang Miao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2839–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2839-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2839-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Simulated diurnal PM2.5 with WRF-Chem is primarily controlled by planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing and emission variations. Modeling bias is likely primarily due to inefficient PBL mixing of primary PM2.5 during the night. The increase in PBL mixing strength during the night can significantly reduce biases. This study underscores that more effort is needed to improve the boundary mixing processes of pollutants in models with observations of PBL structure and mixing fluxes besides PBL height.
Zhen Liu, Yi Ming, Chun Zhao, Ngar Cheung Lau, Jianping Guo, Massimo Bollasina, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 223–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
OH and HO2 radicals are important trace constituents of the atmosphere that are closely coupled via several types of reaction. This paper describes a new laboratory method to simultaneously determine OH kinetics and HO2 yields from chemical processes. The instrument also provides some time resolution on HO2 detection allowing one to separate HO2 produced from the target reaction from HO2 arising from secondary chemistry. Examples of applications are presented.
Feifei Luo, Bjørn Samset, Camilla Stjern, Manoj Joshi, Laura Wilcox, Robert Allen, Wei Hua, and Shuanglin Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3867, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosol is emitted from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. We found that Asian BC lead to a strong local cooling and drying. Reductions in precipitation primarily depend on the thermodynamic effects due to solar radiation absorption by BC. The combined thermodynamic and Dynamic effects shape the spatial pattern of precipitation responses to Asian BC. These results help further understand the impact of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols on Asian climate.
Alcide Zhao, Laura J. Wilcox, and Claire L. Ryder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13385–13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models include desert dust aerosols, which cause atmospheric heating and can change circulation patterns. We assess the effect of dust on the Indian and east Asian summer monsoons through multi-model experiments isolating the effect of dust in current climate models for the first time. Dust atmospheric heating results in a southward shift of western Pacific equatorial rainfall and an enhanced Indian summer monsoon. This shows the importance of accurate dust representation in models.
Catherine Anne Toolan, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Laura J. Wilcox, Bjørn H. Samset, Andrew G. Turner, and Daniel M. Westervelt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3057, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how well air pollution and rainfall patterns in Africa are represented in current climate models, by comparing model data to observations from 1981 to 2023. While most models capture seasonal air quality changes well, they struggle to replicate the distribution of non-dust pollutants and certain rainfall patterns, especially over east Africa. Improving these models is crucial for better climate predictions and preparing for future risks.
Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Wenjun Zhang, and Ying Xiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2770, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using multi-model mean data from regional aerosol perturbation experiments, we find that increased Asian sulfate aerosols strengthen the link between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon. In coupled simulations, aerosol-induced broad cooling increases ENSO amplitude by affecting the tropical Pacific mean state, contributing to increase monsoon interannual variability. These results provide important implications to reduce uncertainties in future projections of regional extreme variability.
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael J. Prather, Alexander T. Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. In this paper, we review its contribution to AR6, and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify remaining challenges concluding with recommendations aimed to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data to address the role of short-lived climate forcers in the Earth system.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel Westervelt, Andrew Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03°C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Massimo A. Bollasina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 877–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the monthly-scale climate response to COVID-19 aerosol emission reductions during January–May 2020 using climate models. Our results show global temperature and rainfall anomalies driven by circulation changes. The climate patterns reverse polarity from JF to MAM due to a shift in the main SO2 reduction region from China to India. This real-life example of rapid climate adjustments to abrupt, regional aerosol emission reduction has large implications for future climate projections.
Alcide Zhao, Claire L. Ryder, and Laura J. Wilcox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2095–2119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2095-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6 models' simulated dust processes are getting more uncertain as models become more sophisticated. Of particular challenge are the links between dust cycles and optical properties, and we recommend more detailed output relating to dust cycles in future intercomparison projects to constrain such links. Also, models struggle to capture certain key regional dust processes such as dust accumulation along the slope of the Himalayas and dust seasonal cycles in North China and North America.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, and Qianxia Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6 ESMs systematically underestimate TAS anomalies in the NH midlatitudes, especially from 1960 to 1990. The anomalous cooling is concurrent in time and space with anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The spurious drop in TAS is attributed to the overestimated aerosol concentrations. The aerosol forcing sensitivity cannot well explain the inter-model spread of PHC biases. And the cloud-amount term accounts for most of the inter-model spread in aerosol forcing sensitivity.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15299–15308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite emissions decreasing since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The pattern conducive to haze weather increases with the atmospheric warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Lixia Zhang, Laura J. Wilcox, Nick J. Dunstone, David J. Paynter, Shuai Hu, Massimo Bollasina, Donghuan Li, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, and Liwei Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7499–7514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming increases significantly due to weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol further increases the frequency of circulation patterns, but haze events are less dangerous. We revealed competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze intensity and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns.
Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14903–14915, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a set of model simulations of the 20th century to demonstrate that the uncertainty in the cooling effect of man-made aerosol emissions has a wide range of impacts on global monsoons. For the weakest cooling, the impact of aerosol is overpowered by greenhouse gas (GHG) warming and monsoon rainfall increases in the late 20th century. For the strongest cooling, aerosol impact dominates over GHG warming, leading to reduced monsoon rainfall, particularly from 1950 to 1980.
Laura J. Wilcox, Zhen Liu, Bjørn H. Samset, Ed Hawkins, Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Sabine Undorf, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Srinath Krishnan, Joonas Merikanto, and Andrew G. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projected changes in man-made aerosol range from large reductions to moderate increases in emissions until 2050. Rapid reductions between the present and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with continued increases in aerosol. Relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes, affecting the sign of the trend in the coming decades.
Qiuyan Du, Chun Zhao, Mingshuai Zhang, Xue Dong, Yu Chen, Zhen Liu, Zhiyuan Hu, Qiang Zhang, Yubin Li, Renmin Yuan, and Shiguang Miao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2839–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2839-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2839-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Simulated diurnal PM2.5 with WRF-Chem is primarily controlled by planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing and emission variations. Modeling bias is likely primarily due to inefficient PBL mixing of primary PM2.5 during the night. The increase in PBL mixing strength during the night can significantly reduce biases. This study underscores that more effort is needed to improve the boundary mixing processes of pollutants in models with observations of PBL structure and mixing fluxes besides PBL height.
Zhen Liu, Yi Ming, Chun Zhao, Ngar Cheung Lau, Jianping Guo, Massimo Bollasina, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 223–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-223-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
OH and HO2 radicals are important trace constituents of the atmosphere that are closely coupled via several types of reaction. This paper describes a new laboratory method to simultaneously determine OH kinetics and HO2 yields from chemical processes. The instrument also provides some time resolution on HO2 detection allowing one to separate HO2 produced from the target reaction from HO2 arising from secondary chemistry. Examples of applications are presented.
Alcide Zhao, Massimo A. Bollasina, Monica Crippa, and David S. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14517–14533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions of aerosols over the recent past have been regulated largely by two policy-relevant drivers: energy-use growth and technology advances. These generate large and competing impacts on global radiation balance and climate, particularly over Asia, Europe, and the Arctic. This may help better assess and interpret future climate projections, and hence inform future climate change impact reduction strategies. Yet, it is pressing to better constrain various uncertainties related to aerosols.
Laura J. Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, Anna Lewinschal, Massimo Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, and Eleanor J. Highwood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9081–9095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased rapidly since 1980. In winter, this has resulted in warming over China and cooling over India. Using models of different levels of complexity, we show that Asian-aerosol-induced heating anomalies in the western and northern North Pacific establish a circulation pattern that causes cooling in North America and Europe. This connection makes these regions potentially sensitive to any reductions of Asian aerosol emissions in the near future.
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Measurement report: Can zenith wet delay from GNSS “see” atmospheric turbulence? Insights from case studies across diverse climate zones
Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes
Too cold, too saturated? Evaluating climate models at the gateway to the Arctic
Modelled surface climate response to effusive Icelandic volcanic eruptions: sensitivity to season and size
Contrasting the roles of regional anthropogenic aerosols from the western and eastern hemispheres in driving the 1980–2020 Pacific multi-decadal variations
A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models
Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming
Using a region-specific ice-nucleating particle parameterization improves the representation of Arctic clouds in a global climate model
Small emission sources in aggregate disproportionately account for a large majority of total methane emissions from the US oil and gas sector
Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels
Satellite quantification of methane emissions from South American countries: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI and GOSAT observations
To what extent does the CO2 diurnal cycle impact flux estimates derived from global and regional inversions?
Volcanic emission estimates from the inversion of ACTRIS lidar observations and their use for quantitative dispersion modelling
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Investigating the limiting aircraft design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation
Highly-resolved satellite remote sensing based land-use change inventory yields weaker surface albedo-induced global cooling
Investigation of the characteristics of low-level jets over North America in a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulation
Impacts of tropical cyclone–heat wave compound events on surface ozone in eastern China: comparison between the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes surface warming relative to preindustrial conditions
A novel method for detecting tropopause structures based on the bi-Gaussian function
Unraveling the discrepancies between Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture tracking models in monsoon- and westerly-dominated basins of the Tibetan Plateau
Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2
Multi-scale variability of southeastern Australian wind resources
Parameterizations for global thundercloud corona discharge distributions
The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance
Relative humidity over ice as a key variable for Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropopause inversion layers
Technical note: Posterior uncertainty estimation via a Monte Carlo procedure specialized for 4D-Var data assimilation
Understanding the role of contrails and contrail cirrus in climate change: a global perspective
Interannual variations in Siberian carbon uptake and carbon release period
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling
Weak surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions, with quantification confounded by internal variability
Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path
Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI
Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes
Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?
Emission Inventory Development for Spatiotemporal Release of Vanadium from Anthropogenic Sources in China
Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
Water vapour exchange between the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere over eastern China: seasonal characteristics and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation anomaly
Strong aerosol cooling alone does not explain cold-biased mid-century temperatures in CMIP6 models
Air pollution reductions caused by the COVID-19 lockdown open up a way to preserve the Himalayan glaciers
Modeling atmosphere–land interactions at a rainforest site – a case study using Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) measurements and reanalysis data
Gaël Kermarrec, Xavier Calbet, Zhiguo Deng, and Cintia Carbajal Henken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3567–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3567-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric delays affect global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals. This study analyses the wet delay, a variable component caused by atmospheric water vapor, using a novel filtering method to examine small-scale turbulent variations. Case studies at five global stations revealed daily and seasonal turbulence patterns. This research will improve water vapour and cloud models, enhance nowcasting, and refine stochastic modelling for GNSS and very long baseline interferometry.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Felix Pithan, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3269–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and the associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
Tómas Zoëga, Trude Storelvmo, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2989–3010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude effusive volcanic eruptions as a function of eruption season and size, with a focus on the Arctic. We find that different seasons strongly modulate the climate response, with Arctic surface warming observed in winter and cooling in summer. Additionally, as eruptions increase in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, Aixue Hu, and Zhili Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2167–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2167-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Industrial aerosol increases in Asia and reductions in North America and Europe in 1980–2020 influenced climate changes over the Pacific Ocean differently. Asian aerosols caused El Niño-like temperature patterns and slightly weakened the natural variation in the North Pacific, while reduced emissions of western countries led to extensive warming in middle–high latitudes of the North Pacific. Human impacts on the Pacific climate may change when emission reduction occurs over Asia in the future.
Brandon M. Duran, Casey J. Wall, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Takuro Michibata, Po-Lun Ma, Yi Qin, Margaret L. Duffy, Brian Medeiros, and Matvey Debolskiy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2123–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use satellite simulator data generated by global climate models to investigate how aerosol particles impact the radiative properties of liquid clouds. Specifically, we quantify the radiative perturbations arising from aerosol-driven changes in the number density of cloud droplets, the vertically integrated cloud water mass, and the cloud amount. Our results show that, in models, aerosol effects on the number density of cloud droplets contribute the most to anthropogenic climate forcing.
Kalle Nordling, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1659–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Robert O. David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1617-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice formation in clouds has a substantial impact on radiation and precipitation and must be realistically simulated in order to understand present and future Arctic climate. Rare aerosols known as ice-nucleating particles can play an important role in cloud ice formation, but their representation in global climate models is not well suited for the Arctic. In this study, the simulation of cloud phase is improved when the representation of these particles is constrained by Arctic observations.
James P. Williams, Mark Omara, Anthony Himmelberger, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Katlyn MacKay, Joshua Benmergui, Maryann Sargent, Steven C. Wofsy, Steven P. Hamburg, and Ritesh Gautam
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1513–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1513-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize peer-reviewed facility-level oil and gas methane emission rate data gathered in prior work to estimate the relative contributions of methane sources emitting at different emission rates in the United States. We find that the majority of total methane emissions in the US oil and gas sector stem from a large number of small sources emitting in aggregate, corroborating findings from several other studies.
Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Timothy A. Myers, Yi Qin, and Stephen A. Klein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1477–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1477-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds lie at the heart of uncertainty in both climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, making it imperative to properly diagnose their radiative effects. Here we provide a recommended methodology and code base for the community to use in performing such diagnoses using cloud radiative kernels. We show that properly accounting for changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds is important for accurate diagnosis and attribution of cloud feedbacks and adjustments.
Sarah E. Hancock, Daniel J. Jacob, Zichong Chen, Hannah Nesser, Aaron Davitt, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Nicholas Balasus, Lucas A. Estrada, María Cazorla, Laura Dawidowski, Sebastián Diez, James D. East, Elise Penn, Cynthia A. Randles, John Worden, Ilse Aben, Robert J. Parker, and Joannes D. Maasakkers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 797–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-797-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify 2021 methane emissions in South America at up to 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 55 % upward adjustment to anthropogenic emission inventories, including those reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement. Our estimates match inventories for Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay but are much higher for other countries. Livestock emissions (65 % of anthropogenic emissions) show the largest discrepancies.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Anna Kampouri, Vassilis Amiridis, Thanasis Georgiou, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Maria Tsichla, Michael Rennie, Simona Scollo, and Prodromos Zanis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3181, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a novel inverse modeling framework coupled with remote sensing data for improving volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, essential for aviation safety. By integrating FLEXPART dispersion model outputs with ground-based ACTRIS lidar observations, the approach estimates Etna's volcanic particle emissions and highlights significant enhancement of the forecast accuracy.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13633–13652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in dry, warm air, which can lead to cloud dissipation. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence have led us to conclude.
Alejandro Uribe, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13371–13384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores climate feedbacks, vital for understanding global warming. It links them to shifts in Earth's energy balance at the atmosphere's top due to natural temperature variations. It takes roughly 50 years to establish this connection. Combined satellite observations and reanalysis suggest that Earth cools more than expected under carbon dioxide influence. However, continuous satellite data until at least the mid-2030s are crucial for refining our understanding of climate feedbacks.
Liam Megill and Volker Grewe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3398, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses ERA5 data to better understand the relative importance of the factors limiting persistent contrail formation. We develop climatological relationships to estimate potential persistent contrail formation for existing as well as future aircraft and propulsion system designs. We identify latitudes and pressure levels where the introduction of novel aircraft designs would result in significant changes in potential persistent contrail formation compared to conventional aircraft.
Xiaohu Jian, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Hong Gao, Yuan Zhao, Ruiyu Zhugu, and Jianmin Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1497, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented a new global land use change (LUC) dataset on a 5 km×5 km resolution from 1982 to 2010 into a compact earth system model OSCAR and carried out extensive multiple model scenario simulations. Our result reveals that the global radiative forcing (RF) induced by LUC driving surface albedo change is -0.12 W m-2, 20 % lower than IPCC, and vegetation changes play a key role in RF evolution, which provides an important references for the assessment of earth energy balance.
Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, and Fei Huo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12013–12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12013-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses 4 km Weather Research and Forecasting simulations to investigate the features of low-level jets (LLJs) in North America. It identifies significant LLJ systems, such as the Great Plains LLJ. It also provides insight into LLJs poorly captured in coarser models, such as the northerly Quebec LLJ and the small-scale, low-level wind maxima around the Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the study examines different physical mechanisms of forming three distinct types of LLJs.
Cuini Qi, Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Hui Zhang, Lili Ren, Xipeng Jin, Chenchao Zhan, Jianping Tang, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11775–11789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11775-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate extremely hot weather impacts on surface ozone over the southeastern coast of China with and without tropical cyclones. Compared to hot days alone, ozone concentration decreased notably in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) but increased in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during tropical cyclones and hot days. The YRD benefited from strong and clean sea winds aiding ozone elimination. In contrast, the PRD experienced strong northeasterly winds that potentially transport ozone pollution.
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, and Wenchang Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11275–11283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
Robert J. Allen, Xueying Zhao, Cynthia A. Randles, Ryan J. Kramer, Bjørn H. Samset, and Christopher J. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11207–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes 28% (7–55%) of the surface warming associated with its longwave absorption. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so. Methane shortwave absorption also impacts the magnitude of its climate feedback parameter, largely through the cloud feedback.
Kun Zhang, Tao Luo, Xuebin Li, Shengcheng Cui, Ningquan Weng, Yinbo Huang, and Yingjian Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11157–11173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In order to deeply understand the formation mechanisms and evolution processes associated with vertical tropopause structures, this study proposes a new method for identifying the multiple characteristic parameters of vertical tropopause structures by fitting temperature profiles using the bi-Gaussian function. The identification results from the bi-Gaussian method are more reasonable and more consistent with the evolution process of atmospheric thermal stratifications.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Qiuhong Tang, Shibo Yao, Bo Sun, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10741–10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For moisture tracking over the Tibetan Plateau, we recommend using high-resolution forcing datasets, prioritizing temporal resolution over spatial resolution for WAM2layers, while for FLEXPART coupled with WaterSip, we suggest applying bias corrections to optimize the filtering of precipitation particles and adjust evaporation estimates.
Antoine Hermant, Linnea Huusko, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10707–10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles, from natural and human sources, have a cooling effect on the climate, partially offsetting global warming. They do this through direct (sunlight reflection) and indirect (cloud property alteration) mechanisms. Using a global climate model, we found that, despite declining emissions, the direct effect of human aerosols has increased while the indirect effect has decreased, which is attributed to the shift in emissions from North America and Europe to Southeast Asia.
Claire L. Vincent and Andrew J. Dowdy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10209–10223, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how wind speed at the height of a wind turbine changes during El Niño and La Niña years and with season and time of day in southeastern Australia. We found that El Niño and La Niña can cause average wind speed differences of around 1 m s-1 in some regions. The highest wind speeds occur in the afternoon or evening around mountains or the coast and during the night for inland areas. The results help show how placement of wind turbines can help balance electricity generation.
Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Patrick Jöckel, Torsten Neubert, Olivier Chanrion, Victor Reglero, and Nikolai Østgaard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10225–10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden local ozone (O3) enhancements have been reported in different regions of the world since the 1970s. While the hot channel of lightning strokes directly produce significant amounts of nitrogen oxide, no direct emission of O3 is expected. Corona discharges in convective active regions could explain local O3 increases, which remains unexplained. We present the first mathematical functions that relate the global annual frequency of in-cloud coronas with four sets of meteorological variables.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Daniel Köhler, Philipp Reutter, and Peter Spichtinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10055–10072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, the influence of humidity on the properties of the tropopause is studied. The tropopause is the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere and represents a barrier for the transport of air masses between the troposphere and the stratosphere. We consider not only the tropopause itself, but also a layer around it called the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). It is shown that the moister the underlying atmosphere is, the more this layer acts as a barrier.
Michael Stanley, Mikael Kuusela, Brendan Byrne, and Junjie Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9419–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To serve the uncertainty quantification (UQ) needs of 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) practitioners, we describe and justify a UQ algorithm from carbon flux inversion and incorporate its sampling uncertainty into the final reported UQ. The algorithm is mathematically proved, and its performance is shown for a carbon flux observing system simulation experiment. These results legitimize and generalize this algorithm's current use and make available this effective algorithm to new DA domains.
Dharmendra Kumar Singh, Swarnali Sanyal, and Donald J. Wuebbles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9219–9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radiative forcing of contrails could triple by 2050 due to increased air traffic and potential changes in flight altitudes. Factors like air traffic patterns, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, and climate change further influence this impact. By highlighting gaps in knowledge and uncertainties, this research helps set priorities for future studies and assess strategies to mitigate the environmental impact of aviation emissions.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8105–8123, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
I use errors in climate model simulations to derive correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth's temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel Westervelt, Andrew Williams, and Bjørn H. Samset
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, regulations by the International Maritime Organization aimed to reduce aerosol emissions from ships. These aerosols previously had a cooling effect, which the regulations might reduce, revealing more greenhouse gas warming. Here we find that while there is regional warming, the global 2020–2040 temperature rise is only +0.03°C. This small change is difficult to distinguish from natural climate variability, indicating the regulations have had a limited effect on observed warming to date.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7347–7358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors of future change in cold extremes in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80 % of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5 ℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing ~ 75 % by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Flora Maria Brocza, Peter Rafaj, Robert Sander, Fabian Wagner, and Jenny Marie Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7385–7404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand how atmospheric mercury levels will change in the future, we model how anthropogenic Hg releases will change following developments in human energy use and mercury use and efforts to reduce pollution and battle climate change. Overall, the findings emphasize that it will be necessary to implement targeted Hg control measures in addition to stringent climate and clean air policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions.
Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, and Robert C. J. Wills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7041–7062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are crucial for predicting climate change in detail. This paper proposes a balanced approach to improving their accuracy by combining traditional process-based methods with modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques while maximizing the resolution to allow for ensemble simulations. The authors propose using AI to learn from both observational and simulated data while incorporating existing physical knowledge to reduce data demands and improve climate prediction reliability.
Brian Nathan, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Stijn Naus, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lucas A. Estrada, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Robert J. Parker, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6845–6863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo region is notoriously hard to observe from space and features intensive oil exploitation, although production has strongly decreased in recent years. We estimate methane emissions using 2018–2020 TROPOMI satellite observations with national and regional transport models. Despite the production decrease, we find relatively constant emissions from Lake Maracaibo between 2018 and 2020, indicating that there could be large emissions from abandoned infrastructure.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Steven C. Sherwood and Chris E. Forest
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2679–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2679-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most fundamental parameter used to gauge the severity of future climate change is the so-called equilibrium climate sensitivity, which measures the warming that would ultimately occur due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Due to recent advances it is now thought to probably lie in the range 2.5–4 °C. We discuss this and the issues involved in evaluating and using the number, pointing to some pitfalls in current efforts but also possibilities for further progress.
Han Zhang, Baogang Zhang, Bo Jiang, Qimin Li, Xuewen Hu, and Yi Xing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-10, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed the vanadium emission inventories of anthropogenic sources in China during 2015–2019. We identified five major emission sources, including coal combustion, oil burning, transportation, industrial manufacture, and waste handling. Emission outputs were calculated by integrating the emission factors and activity levels of vanadium related processes. Our results identified the key emitters and highlighted the spatial and temporal patterns of vanadium releases.
Christopher D. Wells, Matthew Kasoar, Majid Ezzati, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1025–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Human-driven emissions of air pollutants, mostly caused by burning fossil fuels, impact both the climate and human health. Millions of deaths each year are caused by air pollution globally, and the future trends are uncertain. Here, we use a global climate model to study the effect of African pollutant emissions on surface level air pollution, and resultant impacts on human health, in several future emission scenarios. We find much lower health impacts under cleaner, lower-emission futures.
Xipeng Jin, Xuhui Cai, Xuesong Wang, Qianqian Huang, Yu Song, Ling Kang, Hongsheng Zhang, and Tong Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 259–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a climatology of water vapour exchange flux between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and free troposphere (FT) over eastern China. The water vapour exchange maintains ABL humidity in cold months and moistens the FT in warm seasons, and its distribution has terrain-dependent features. The exchange flux is correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and precipitation pattern. The study provides new insight into moisture transport and extreme weather.
Clare Marie Flynn, Linnea Huusko, Angshuman Modak, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15121–15133, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The latest-generation climate models show surprisingly cold mid-20th century global-mean temperatures, often despite exhibiting more realistic late 20th/early 21st century temperatures. A too-strong aerosol forcing in many models was thought to the be primary cause of these too-cold mid-century temperatures, but this was found to only be a partial explanation. This also partly undermines the hope to construct a strong relationship between the mid-century temperatures and aerosol forcing.
Suvarna Fadnavis, Bernd Heinold, T. P. Sabin, Anne Kubin, Katty Huang, Alexandru Rap, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10439–10449, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10439-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of the COVID-19 lockdown on the Himalayas caused increases in snow cover and a decrease in runoff, ultimately leading to an enhanced snow water equivalent. Our findings highlight that, out of the two processes causing a retreat of Himalayan glaciers – (1) slow response to global climate change and (2) fast response to local air pollution – a policy action on the latter is more likely to be within the reach of possible policy action to help billions of people in southern Asia.
Amelie U. Schmitt, Felix Ament, Alessandro C. de Araújo, Marta Sá, and Paulo Teixeira
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9323–9346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9323-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tall vegetation in forests affects the exchange of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and the land surface. We compared measurements from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory to results from a land surface model to identify model shortcomings. Our results suggest that soil temperatures in the model could be improved by incorporating a separate canopy layer which represents the heat storage within the forest.
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P. P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, 2003 (data available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html, last access: 19 June 2024).
Albrecht, B. A.: Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.245.4923.1227, 1989.
An, Z., Colman, S. M., Zhou, W., Li, X., Brown, E. T., Jull, A. J. T., Cai, Y., Huang, Y., Lu, X., Chang, H., Song, Y., Sun, Y., Xu, H., Liu, W., Jin, Z., Liu, X., Cheng, P., Liu, Y., Ai, L., Li, X., Liu, X., Yan, L., Shi, Z., Wang, X., Wu, F., Qiang, X., Dong, J., Lu, F., and Xu, X.: Interplay between the Westerlies and Asian monsoon recorded in Lake Qinghai sediments since 32 ka, Sci. Rep., 2, 619, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00619, 2012.
Andrews, T. and Forster, P. M.: Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 313–316, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0696-1, 2020.
Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Fläschner, D., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Oliviè, D. J. L., Samset, B., Sandstad, M., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Stier, P., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., and Watson-Parris, D.: Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project data sets 2013–2021, World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ [data set], https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PDRMIP_2012-2021, 2021.
Bartlett, R. E., Bollasina, M. A., Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Marenco, F., Messori, G., and Bernie, D. J.: Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon, Clim. Dynam., 50, 1863–1880, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3726-6, 2018.
Bastin, S., Drobinski, P., Chiriaco, M., Bock, O., Roehrig, R., Gallardo, C., Conte, D., Domínguez Alonso, M., Li, L., Lionello, P., and Parracho, A. C.: Impact of humidity biases on light precipitation occurrence: observations versus simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1471–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, 2019.
Bellouin, N., Mann, G. W., Woodhouse, M. T., Johnson, C., Carslaw, K. S., and Dalvi, M.: Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3027–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3027-2013, 2013.
Bollasina, M. and Nigam, S.: Indian Ocean SST, evaporation, and precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon in IPCC-AR4 coupled simulations, Clim. Dynam., 33, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0477-4, 2009.
Bollasina, M. A., Ming, Y., and Ramaswamy, V.: Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the south asian summer monsoon, Science, 334, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204994, 2011.
Bollasina, M. A., Ming, Y., and Ramaswamy, V.: Earlier onset of the Indian monsoon in the late twentieth century: The role of anthropogenic aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3715–3720, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50719, 2013.
Bollasina, M. A., Ming, Y., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., and Naik, V.: Contribution of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols to the twentieth century weakening of the South Asian Monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 680–687, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058183, 2014.
Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Feingold, G., Forster, P., Kerminen, V.-M., Kondo, Y., Liao, H., Lohmann, U., Rasch, P., Satheesh, S. K., Sherwood, S., Stevens, B., and Zhang, X. Y.: IPCC: Clouds and Aerosols, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.016, 2013.
Boutle, I. A., Eyre, J. E. J., and Lock, A. P.: Seamless Stratocumulus Simulation across the Turbulent Gray Zone, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1655–1668, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00229.1, 2014a.
Boutle, I. A., Abel, S. J., Hill, P. G., and Morcrette, C. J.: Spatial variability of liquid cloud and rain: observations and microphysical effects, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 583–594, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2140, 2014b.
Cao, J., Wang, B., Wang, B., Zhao, H., Wang, C., and Han, Y.: Sources of the Intermodel Spread in Projected Global Monsoon Hydrological Sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089560, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089560, 2020.
Chadwick, R.: Which aspects of CO2 forcing and SST warming cause most uncertainty in projections of tropical rainfall change over land and ocean?, J. Climate, 29, 2493–2509, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0777.1, 2016.
Chen, X., Wu, P., Roberts, M. J., and Zhou, T.: Potential underestimation of future Mei-Yu Rainfall with coarse-resolution climate models, J. Climate, 31, 6711–6727, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0741.1, 2018.
Christidis, N., Stott, P. A., Scaife, A. A., Arribas, A., Jones, G. S., Copsey, D., Knight, J. R., and Tennant, W. J.: A new HADGEM3-a-based system for attribution of weather- and climate-related extreme events, J. Climate, 26, 2756–2783, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00169.1, 2013.
Chung, C. E. and Ramanathan, V.: Weakening of north Indian SST gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel, J. Climate, 19, 2036–2045, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3820.1, 2006.
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.: The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047268, 2011.
Dai, L., Cheng, T. F., and Lu, M.: Anthropogenic warming disrupts intraseasonal monsoon stages and brings dry-get-wetter climate in future East Asia, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 5, 11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00235-9, 2022.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., Mcnally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011 (data aavailable at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-interim, last access: 19 June 2024).
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012.
Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Highwood, E. J., and Wilcox, L. J.: Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2671-5, 2016.
Dong, B., Wilcox, L. J., Highwood, E. J., and Sutton, R. T.: Impacts of recent decadal changes in Asian aerosols on the East Asian summer monsoon: roles of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, Clim. Dynam., 53, 3235–3256, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04698-0, 2019.
Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R. J.: An introduction to the bootstrap, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, Vol. 57, Chapman and Hall, London, p. 436, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9639.00050, 1993.
Fang, C., Haywood, J. M., Liang, J., Johnson, B. T., Chen, Y., and Zhu, B.: Impacts of reducing scattering and absorbing aerosols on the temporal extent and intensity of South Asian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8341–8368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8341-2023, 2023.
Fläschner, D., Mauritsen, T., and Stevens, B.: Understanding the intermodel spread in global-mean hydrological sensitivity, J. Climate, 29, 801–817, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0351.1, 2016.
Ganguly, D., Rasch, P. J., Wang, H., and Yoon, J. H.: Fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053043, 2012.
Gong, D.-Y. and Ho, C.-H.: Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 78-1–78-4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gl014523, 2002.
Gregory, D. and Rowntree, P. R.: A Mass Flux Convection Scheme with Representation of Cloud Ensemble Characteristics and Stability-Dependent Closure, Mon. Weather Rev., 118, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1483:AMFCSW>2.0.CO;2, 1990.
Gu, Y., Liou, K. N., Xue, Y., Mechoso, C. R., Li, W., and Luo, Y.: Climatic effects of different aerosol types in China simulated by the UCLA general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D15201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006312, 2006.
Guilbert, M., Terray, P., and Mignot, J.: Intermodel spread of historical Indian monsoon rainfall change in CMIP6: The role of the tropical Pacific mean-state, J. Climate, 1, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0585.1, 2023.
Guo, L., Highwood, E. J., Shaffrey, L. C., and Turner, A. G.: The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1521–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013, 2013.
Guo, L., Turner, A. G., and Highwood, E. J.: Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6367–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6367-2015, 2015.
Han, Y., Zhang, M. Z., Xu, Z., and Guo, W.: Assessing the performance of 33 CMIP6 models in simulating the large-scale environmental fields of tropical cyclones, Clim. Dynam., 58, 1683–1698, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05986-4, 2022.
He, J. and Soden, B. J.: The impact of SST biases on projections of anthropogenic climate change: A greater role for atmosphere-only models?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7745–7750, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069803, 2016.
He, L., Zhou, T., and Chen, X.: South Asian summer rainfall from CMIP3 to CMIP6 models: biases and improvements, Clim. Dynam., 61, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06542-4, 2022.
Herbert, R., Wilcox, L. J., Joshi, M., Highwood, E., and Frame, D.: Nonlinear response of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to emission reductions in South and East Asia, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 014005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3b19, 2022.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020 (data available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5, last access: 18 June 2024).
Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T. C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., Kurokawa, J.-I., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z., Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018.
Huang, X., Zhou, T., Dai, A., Li, H., Li, C., Chen, X., Lu, J., von Storch, J. S., and Wu, B.: South Asian summer monsoon projections constrained by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation, Science Advances, 6, eaay6546, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay6546, 2020a.
Huang, X., Zhou, T., Turner, A., Dai, A., Chen, X., Clark, R., Jiang, J., Man, W., Murphy, J., Rostron, J., Wu, B., Zhang, L., Zhang, W., and Zou, L.: The recent decline and recovery of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Relative roles of external forcing and internal variability, J. Climate, 33, 5035–5060, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0833.1, 2020b.
Jiang, D., Hu, D., Tian, Z., and Lang, X.: Differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Simulating Climate over China and the East Asian Monsoon, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1102–1118, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-2034-y, 2020.
Jiang, Y., Liu, X., Yang, X. Q., and Wang, M.: A numerical study of the effect of different aerosol types on East Asian summer clouds and precipitation, Atmos. Environ., 70, 51–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.12.039, 2013.
Jin, Q. and Wang, C.: A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 587–594, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3348, 2017.
John, V. O. and Soden, B. J.: Temperature and humidity biases in global climate models and their impact on climate feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030429, 2007.
Kooperman, G. J., Pritchard, M. S., Ghan, S. J., Wang, M., Somerville, R. C. J., and Russell, L. M.: Constraining the influence of natural variability to improve estimates of global aerosol indirect effects in a nudged version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D23204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018588, 2012.
Krinner, G. and Flanner, M. G.: Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 9462–9466, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807912115, 2018.
Lau, K. M. and Kim, K. M.: Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall, and circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027546, 2006.
Lau, W. K. M. and Kim, K. M.: Fingerprinting the impacts of aerosols on long-term trends of the Indian summer monsoon regional rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043255, 2010.
Li, X., Ting, M., and Lee, D. E.: Fast Adjustments of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1001–1010, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076667, 2018.
Li, X., Ting, M., You, Y., Lee, D. E., Westervelt, D. M., and Ming, Y.: South Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Aerosol-Forced Sea Surface Temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085329, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085329, 2020.
Lin, J., Tong, D., Davis, S., Ni, R., Tan, X., Pan, D., Zhao, H., Lu, Z., Streets, D., Feng, T., Zhang, Q., Yan, Y., Hu, Y., Li, J., Liu, Z., Jiang, X., Geng, G., He, K., Huang, Y., and Guan, D.: Global climate forcing of aerosols embodied in international trade, Nat. Geosci., 9, 790–794, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2798, 2016.
Lin, R., Zhu, J., and Zheng, F.: Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols, Sci. Rep., 6, 38546, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38546, 2016.
Liu, C., Yang, Y., Wang, H., Ren, L., Wei, J., Wang, P., and Liao, H.: Influence of Spatial Dipole Pattern in Asian Aerosol Changes on East Asian Summer Monsoon, J. Climate, 36, 1575–1585, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0335.1, 2023.
Liu, L., Shawki, D., Voulgarakis, A., Kasoar, M., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Sillmann, J., Aalbergsjø, S. G., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J. F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Shindell, D., and Takemura, T.: A PDRMIP Multimodel study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation, J. Climate, 31, 4429–4447, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0439.1, 2018.
Liu, Z., Bollasina, M. A., Wilcox, L. J., Rodríguez, J. M., and Regayre, L. A.: Contrasting the Role of Regional and Remote Circulation in Driving Asian Monsoon Biases in MetUM GA7.1, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, 126, e2020JD034342, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034342, 2021.
Liu, Z., Lee, S.-S., Nellikkattil, A. B., Lee, J.-Y., Dai, L., Ha, K.-J., and Franzke, C. L. E.: The East Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Global Warming in a High Resolution Coupled Model: Mean and Extremes, Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci. 2022, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/S13143-022-00285-2, 2022.
Lock, A. P., Brown, A. R., Bush, M. R., Martin, G. M., and Smith, R. N. B.: A New Boundary Layer Mixing Scheme. Part I: Scheme Description and Single-Column Model Tests, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 3187–3199, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<3187:ANBLMS>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Lund, M. T., Myhre, G., and Samset, B. H.: Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13827–13839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, 2019.
Mann, G. W., Carslaw, K. S., Spracklen, D. V., Ridley, D. A., Manktelow, P. T., Chipperfield, M. P., Pickering, S. J., and Johnson, C. E.: Description and evaluation of GLOMAP-mode: a modal global aerosol microphysics model for the UKCA composition-climate model, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 519–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-519-2010, 2010.
Matsueda, M. and Palmer, T. N.: Accuracy of climate change predictions using high resolution simulations as surrogates of truth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046618, 2011.
Menon, S., Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., and Luo, Y.: Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India, Science, 297, 2250–2253, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1075159, 2002a.
Menon, S., Del Genio, A. D., Koch, D., and Tselioudis, G.: GCM simulations of the aerosol indirect effect: Sensitivity to cloud parameterization and aerosol Burden, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 692–713, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<0692:gsotai>2.0.co;2, 2002b.
Monerie, P. A., Wilcox, L. J., and Turner, A. G.: Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Precipitation: Mechanisms and Uncertainty, J. Climate, 35, 2305–2326, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1, 2022.
Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Samset, B. H., Hodnebrog, Sillmann, J., Aalbergsjø, S. G., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevag, A., Lamarque, J. F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T. B., Shindell, D., Shine, K. P., Stjern, C. W., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., and Zwiers, F.: PDRMIP: A precipitation driver and response model intercomparison project-protocol and preliminary results, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1185–1198, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0019.1, 2017.
Park, M. and Lee, S.: Is the Stationary Wave Bias in CMIP5 Simulations Driven by Latent Heating Biases?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091678, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091678, 2021.
Pillai, P. A., Rao, S. A., Srivastava, A., Ramu, D. A., Pradhan, M., and Das, R. S.: Impact of the tropical Pacific SST biases on the simulation and prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in CFSv2, ECMWF-System4, and NMME models, Clim. Dynam., 56, 1699–1715, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05555-1, 2021.
Rajendran, K., Surendran, S., Varghese, S. J., and Sathyanath, A.: Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, interannual variability and teleconnections: evaluation of CMIP6 models, Clim. Dynam., 58, 2693–2723, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06027-w, 2022.
Seager, R., Naik, N., and Vecchi, G. A.: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming, J. Climate, 23, 4651–4668, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1, 2010.
Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Andrews, T., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J. F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Shindell, D., Shine, K. P., Takemura, T., and Voulgarakis, A.: Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2782–2791, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068064, 2016.
Samset, B. H., Lund, M. T., Bollasina, M., Myhre, G., and Wilcox, L.: Emerging Asian aerosol patterns, Nat. Geosci., 12, 582–584, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0424-5, 2019.
Sato, Y., Goto, D., Michibata, T., Suzuki, K., Takemura, T., Tomita, H., and Nakajima, T.: Aerosol effects on cloud water amounts were successfully simulated by a global cloud-system resolving model, Nat. Commun., 9, 985, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03379-6, 2018.
Sherman, P., Gao, M., Song, S., Archibald, A. T., Abraham, N. L., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D., Faluvegi, G., and McElroy, M. B.: Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3593–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3593-2021, 2021.
Singh, D., Bollasina, M., Ting, M., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Disentangling the influence of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols on South Asian monsoon daily rainfall characteristics, Clim. Dynam., 52, 6301–6320, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4512-9, 2019.
Soden, B. and Chung, E.-S.: The Large-Scale Dynamical Response of Clouds to Aerosol Forcing, J. Climate, 30, 8783–8794, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0050.1, 2017.
Song, F. and Zhou, T.: The climatology and interannual variability of east Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 coupled models: Does air-sea coupling improve the simulations?, J. Climate, 27, 8761–8777, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00396.1, 2014.
Song, F., Zhou, T., and Qian, Y.: Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 596–603, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058705, 2014.
Sperber, K. R., Annamalai, H., Kang, I. S., Kitoh, A., Moise, A., Turner, A., Wang, B., and Zhou, T.: The Asian summer monsoon: An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2711–2744, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6, 2013.
Tian, F., Dong, B., Robson, J., and Sutton, R.: Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, Clim. Dynam., 51, 3699–3715, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4105-7, 2018.
Tong, M., Zheng, Z., and Fu, Q.: Evaluation of East Asian Meiyu from CMIP6/AMIP simulations, Clim. Dynam., 59, 2429–2444, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06218-z, 2022.
Twomey, S.: Pollution and the planetary albedo, Atmos. Environ., 8, 1251–1256, https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-6981(74)90004-3, 1974.
Vidya, P. J., Ravichandran, M., Subeesh, M. P., Chatterjee, S., and Nuncio, M.: Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean, Sci. Rep., 10, 3255, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59964-7, 2020.
Walters, D., Baran, A. J., Boutle, I., Brooks, M., Earnshaw, P., Edwards, J., Furtado, K., Hill, P., Lock, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C., Mulcahy, J., Sanchez, C., Smith, C., Stratton, R., Tennant, W., Tomassini, L., Van Weverberg, K., Vosper, S., Willett, M., Browse, J., Bushell, A., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Essery, R., Gedney, N., Hardiman, S., Johnson, B., Johnson, C., Jones, A., Jones, C., Mann, G., Milton, S., Rumbold, H., Sellar, A., Ujiie, M., Whitall, M., Williams, K., and Zerroukat, M.: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019.
Wang, B., Yim, S. Y., Lee, J. Y., Liu, J., and Ha, K. J.: Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario, Clim. Dynam., 42, 83–100, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1769-x, 2014.
Wang, B., Jin, C., and Liu, J.: Understanding Future Change of Global Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models, J. Climate, 33, 6471–6489, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0993.1, 2020.
Wang, N., Zhang, K., Shen, X., Wang, Y., Li, J., Li, C., Mao, J., Malinka, A., Zhao, C., Russell, L. M., Guo, J., Gross, S., Liu, C., Yang, J., Chen, F., Sijie Chen1, L. W., Ke, J., Xiao, D., Zhou, Y., Fang, J., and Liu, D.: Dual-field-of-view high-spectral-resolution lidar: Simultaneous profiling of aerosol and water cloud to study aerosol–cloud interaction, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2110756119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2110756119, 2022.
West, R. E. L., Stier, P., Jones, A., Johnson, C. E., Mann, G. W., Bellouin, N., Partridge, D. G., and Kipling, Z.: The importance of vertical velocity variability for estimates of the indirect aerosol effects, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6369–6393, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6369-2014, 2014.
Westervelt, D. M., Conley, A. J., Fiore, A. M., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Previdi, M., Mascioli, N. R., Faluvegi, G., Correa, G., and Horowitz, L. W.: Connecting regional aerosol emissions reductions to local and remote precipitation responses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12461–12475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12461-2018, 2018.
Wilcox, L. J., Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., and Highwood, E. J.: The 2014 hot, dry summer in northeast Asia, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S105–S110, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00123.1, 2015.
Wilcox, L. J., Dunstone, N., Lewinschal, A., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A. M. L., and Highwood, E. J.: Mechanisms for a remote response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol in boreal winter, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9081–9095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019, 2019.
Wilcox, L. J., Liu, Z., Samset, B. H., Hawkins, E., Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A. M. L., Krishnan, S., Merikanto, J., and Turner, A. G.: Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11955–11977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020, 2020.
Wilson, D. R. and Ballard, S. P.: A microphysically based precipitation scheme for the UK meteorological office unified model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 1607–1636, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712555707, 1999.
Xie, P. and Arkin, P. A.: Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2539–2558, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2, 1997 (data available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cmap.html, last access: 19 June 2024).
Xie, X., Myhre, G., Liu, X., Li, X., Shi, Z., Wang, H., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D., Takemura, T., and Liu, Y.: Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11823–11839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11823-2020, 2020.
Yang, B., Zhang, Y., Qian, Y., Song, F., Leung, L. R., Wu, P., Guo, Z., Lu, Y., and Huang, A.: Better monsoon precipitation in coupled climate models due to bias compensation, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 43, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0100-x, 2019.
Yu, S., Li, P., Wang, L., Wang, P., Wang, S., Chang, S., Liu, W., and Alapaty, K.: Anthropogenic aerosols are a potential cause for migration of the summer monsoon rain belt in China, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, E2209–E2210, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1601104113, 2016.
Zanis, P., Akritidis, D., Georgoulias, A. K., Allen, R. J., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Cole, J., Johnson, B., Deushi, M., Michou, M., Mulcahy, J., Nabat, P., Olivié, D., Oshima, N., Sima, A., Schulz, M., Takemura, T., and Tsigaridis, K.: Fast responses on pre-industrial climate from present-day aerosols in a CMIP6 multi-model study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020.
Zha, J., Shen, C., Zhao, D., Feng, J., Xu, Z., Wu, J., Fan, W., Luo, M., and Zhang, L.: Contributions of External Forcing and Internal Climate Variability to Changes in the Summer Surface Air Temperature over East Asia, J. Climate, 35, 5013–5032, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0577.1, 2022.
Zhang, P., Yang, S., and Kousky, V. E.: South Asian high and Asian–Pacific–American climate teleconnection, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 915–923, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02918690, 2005.
Zhang, S., Stier, P., and Watson-Parris, D.: On the contribution of fast and slow responses to precipitation changes caused by aerosol perturbations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10179–10197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10179-2021, 2021.
Zheng, B., Tong, D., Li, M., Liu, F., Hong, C., Geng, G., Li, H., Li, X., Peng, L., Qi, J., Yan, L., Zhang, Y., Zhao, H., Zheng, Y., He, K., and Zhang, Q.: Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14095–14111, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14095-2018, 2018.
Zhou, S., Huang, P., Huang, G., and Hu, K.: Leading source and constraint on the systematic spread of the changes in East Asian and western North Pacific summer monsoon, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 124059, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab547c, 2019.
Zhou, Z. Q. and Xie, S. P.: Effects of climatological model biases on the projection of tropical climate change, J. Climate, 28, 9909–9917, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0243.1, 2015.
Short summary
The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model-simulated spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response.
The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint