Articles | Volume 24, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
Department of Climate, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
Brian Soden
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
Amy Clement
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
Gabriel Vecchi
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Sofia Menemenlis
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
Wenchang Yang
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
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Cited
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- A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit E. Bevacqua et al. 10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9
- Transition of El Niño to La Niña can be driven by regional perturbations a year ahead C. Kent et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/add35d
- El Niño was a key driver of anomalous ocean warming in Southeast Asia in 2023 F. Tan et al. 10.1038/s41598-025-99511-w
- Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected J. Terhaar et al. 10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z
- Climate science for 2050 G. Brasseur et al. 10.3389/fclim.2025.1554685
- Assessing the robustness and implications of econometric estimates of climate sensitivity T. Storelvmo et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adabfc
- What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row? S. Xie et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-01006-y
- Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 L. Cheng et al. 10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3
- Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal S. Minobe et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00996-z
- The other climate crisis T. Shaw & B. Stevens 10.1038/s41586-025-08680-1
- Impact of urban habitat structure and weather variables on reproduction of gigant African snail <em>(Lissachatina fulica)</em> M. Garces-Restrepo et al. 10.31893/jabb.2025013
- The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation S. Raghuraman et al. 10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Attribution of the record-high 2023 SST using a deep-learning framework J. Rader et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/add322
- A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit E. Bevacqua et al. 10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9
- Transition of El Niño to La Niña can be driven by regional perturbations a year ahead C. Kent et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/add35d
- El Niño was a key driver of anomalous ocean warming in Southeast Asia in 2023 F. Tan et al. 10.1038/s41598-025-99511-w
- Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected J. Terhaar et al. 10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z
- Climate science for 2050 G. Brasseur et al. 10.3389/fclim.2025.1554685
- Assessing the robustness and implications of econometric estimates of climate sensitivity T. Storelvmo et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adabfc
- What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row? S. Xie et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-01006-y
- Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 L. Cheng et al. 10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3
- Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal S. Minobe et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00996-z
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The other climate crisis T. Shaw & B. Stevens 10.1038/s41586-025-08680-1
- Impact of urban habitat structure and weather variables on reproduction of gigant African snail <em>(Lissachatina fulica)</em> M. Garces-Restrepo et al. 10.31893/jabb.2025013
- The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation S. Raghuraman et al. 10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024
Latest update: 23 May 2025
Executive editor
The rapid increase in global warming in 2023 has sparked fears that Earth has entered a new warm state. Possible explanations for a warming spike have included transient changes in radiative forcing or deficiencies in climate models. This study shows that the primary cause is a mode of natural climate variability – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The authors show that, while the magnitude of global warming caused by ENSO was particularly large in 2023, it is not unprecedented in the historical record. The implication is that global warming is continuing at a steady average rate without dramatic acceleration.
The rapid increase in global warming in 2023 has sparked fears that Earth has entered a new warm...
Short summary
The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we...
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