Articles | Volume 24, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
ACP Letters
| Highlight paper
| 
10 Oct 2024
ACP Letters | Highlight paper |
| 10 Oct 2024
| 10 Oct 2024
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
Department of Climate, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
Brian Soden
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
Amy Clement
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
Gabriel Vecchi
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Sofia Menemenlis
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
Wenchang Yang
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
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Total article views: 17,935 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Attribution of the record-high 2023 SST using a deep-learning framework J. Rader et al.
- Global Stratification Trends Diagnosed Using the Center of Mass of the Ocean F. Roquet et al.
- Compound drought stressors drive vegetation decline in the African Great Lakes region: a multiscale causal analysis P. Batungwanayo et al.
- Short‐Term Effects of El Niño (2023–2024 ENSO) Drought on Predation Patterns of Lepidopteran Prey in an Urban‐Agricultural Ecosystems J. Edradan et al.
- Assessing the robustness and implications of econometric estimates of climate sensitivity T. Storelvmo et al.
- 2023-2024 El Niño amplifies record sea level surges in African marine domains F. Kemgang Ghomsi et al.
- Multi-year La Niña–El Niño transition influenced Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023 K. Tsuchida et al.
- Planetary albedo and reflected shortwave flux: Basic characteristics, mechanisms of change and future projections R. Li et al.
- Diverse impact of 2023 El Niño on weather patterns over the Indonesian Maritime Continent S. Zehri et al.
- Seeking El Dorado: Iceland’s carbon dioxide removal service opportunities to meet global demand and a new lens on overnight transition cost D. Keiner et al.
- Rain- and Seismic-Triggered Mass Movements in Coastal Ecuador—A Case Study of the “El Florón” Landslide in Portoviejo M. Melgar et al.
- The impact of rising water temperatures on kuruma shrimp aquaculture sustainability K. Yasuda & R. Fuseya
- Conflict-induced ship traffic disruptions constrain cloud sensitivity to stricter marine pollution regulations M. Diamond & L. Boss
- What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row? S. Xie et al.
- Consequential differences in satellite-era sea surface temperature trends across datasets S. Menemenlis et al.
- Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 L. Cheng et al.
- Atypical warming pattern of strong 2023-24 El Niño boosts global temperatures to new 1.5 °C record N. Jiang et al.
- Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 J. Müller et al.
- El Niño was a key driver of anomalous ocean warming in Southeast Asia in 2023 F. Tan et al.
- Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected J. Terhaar et al.
- Statistical and stochastic analysis of sunshine duration, rainfall, and ENSO coupling in Bandung, Indonesia: implications for photovoltaic energy generation S. Hamdi et al.
- A long-term perspective to the effects of the 2023 marine heat wave on stony corals in the Caribbean P. Edmunds & H. Lasker
- Experimental and DEM investigation of thermal effects on mechanical properties of biopolymer treated soil J. Gu et al.
- Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal S. Minobe et al.
- Bioeconomy and Climate Change: The Scenarios of Food Insecurity in Brazil’s Northern Region (Amazon) Due to the Shift from Traditional Table Crops to Globally Valued Commodities W. Pereira et al.
- A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit E. Bevacqua et al.
- Carbon permit allocation, carbon neutrality time and climate debt for one country under equal environmental human rights J. Li
- Climate change in north Kalimantan Province, Indonesia U. Fitriati et al.
- Transition of El Niño to La Niña can be driven by regional perturbations a year ahead C. Kent et al.
- Observation-based estimate of Earth’s effective radiative forcing S. Van Loon et al.
- The observed September 2023 temperature jump was nearly impossible under standard anthropogenic forcing S. Seeber et al.
- Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023 J. Mex et al.
- Climate science for 2050 G. Brasseur et al.
- Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence P. Forster et al.
- What factors influence the density of the giant African snail in a city in the Neotropics? M. Garcés & A. Giraldo
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Attribution of the record-high 2023 SST using a deep-learning framework J. Rader et al.
- Global Stratification Trends Diagnosed Using the Center of Mass of the Ocean F. Roquet et al.
- Compound drought stressors drive vegetation decline in the African Great Lakes region: a multiscale causal analysis P. Batungwanayo et al.
- Short‐Term Effects of El Niño (2023–2024 ENSO) Drought on Predation Patterns of Lepidopteran Prey in an Urban‐Agricultural Ecosystems J. Edradan et al.
- Assessing the robustness and implications of econometric estimates of climate sensitivity T. Storelvmo et al.
- 2023-2024 El Niño amplifies record sea level surges in African marine domains F. Kemgang Ghomsi et al.
- Multi-year La Niña–El Niño transition influenced Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023 K. Tsuchida et al.
- Planetary albedo and reflected shortwave flux: Basic characteristics, mechanisms of change and future projections R. Li et al.
- Diverse impact of 2023 El Niño on weather patterns over the Indonesian Maritime Continent S. Zehri et al.
- Seeking El Dorado: Iceland’s carbon dioxide removal service opportunities to meet global demand and a new lens on overnight transition cost D. Keiner et al.
- Rain- and Seismic-Triggered Mass Movements in Coastal Ecuador—A Case Study of the “El Florón” Landslide in Portoviejo M. Melgar et al.
- The impact of rising water temperatures on kuruma shrimp aquaculture sustainability K. Yasuda & R. Fuseya
- Conflict-induced ship traffic disruptions constrain cloud sensitivity to stricter marine pollution regulations M. Diamond & L. Boss
- What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row? S. Xie et al.
- Consequential differences in satellite-era sea surface temperature trends across datasets S. Menemenlis et al.
- Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 L. Cheng et al.
- Atypical warming pattern of strong 2023-24 El Niño boosts global temperatures to new 1.5 °C record N. Jiang et al.
- Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 J. Müller et al.
- El Niño was a key driver of anomalous ocean warming in Southeast Asia in 2023 F. Tan et al.
- Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected J. Terhaar et al.
- Statistical and stochastic analysis of sunshine duration, rainfall, and ENSO coupling in Bandung, Indonesia: implications for photovoltaic energy generation S. Hamdi et al.
- A long-term perspective to the effects of the 2023 marine heat wave on stony corals in the Caribbean P. Edmunds & H. Lasker
- Experimental and DEM investigation of thermal effects on mechanical properties of biopolymer treated soil J. Gu et al.
- Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal S. Minobe et al.
- Bioeconomy and Climate Change: The Scenarios of Food Insecurity in Brazil’s Northern Region (Amazon) Due to the Shift from Traditional Table Crops to Globally Valued Commodities W. Pereira et al.
- A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit E. Bevacqua et al.
- Carbon permit allocation, carbon neutrality time and climate debt for one country under equal environmental human rights J. Li
- Climate change in north Kalimantan Province, Indonesia U. Fitriati et al.
- Transition of El Niño to La Niña can be driven by regional perturbations a year ahead C. Kent et al.
- Observation-based estimate of Earth’s effective radiative forcing S. Van Loon et al.
- The observed September 2023 temperature jump was nearly impossible under standard anthropogenic forcing S. Seeber et al.
- Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023 J. Mex et al.
- Climate science for 2050 G. Brasseur et al.
- Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence P. Forster et al.
- What factors influence the density of the giant African snail in a city in the Neotropics? M. Garcés & A. Giraldo
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 May 2026
Editorial statement
The rapid increase in global warming in 2023 has sparked fears that Earth has entered a new warm state. Possible explanations for a warming spike have included transient changes in radiative forcing or deficiencies in climate models. This study shows that the primary cause is a mode of natural climate variability – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The authors show that, while the magnitude of global warming caused by ENSO was particularly large in 2023, it is not unprecedented in the historical record. The implication is that global warming is continuing at a steady average rate without dramatic acceleration.
The rapid increase in global warming in 2023 has sparked fears that Earth has entered a new warm...
Short summary
The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.
The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we...
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