Articles | Volume 21, issue 17
Research article 07 Sep 2021
Research article | 07 Sep 2021
Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec et al.
No articles found.
Colin Grudzien and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for GMDShort summary
Iterative optimization techniques, at the state-of-the-art of data assimilation, have largely focused on extending forecast accuracy to moderate- to long-range forecast systems. However, current methodology may not be cost-effective in reducing forecast errors in online, short-range forecast systems. We propose a novel optimization of these techniques for online, short-range forecast cycles, simultaneously providing an improvement in forecast accuracy and a reduction of the computational cost.
Colin Grudzien, Marc Bocquet, and Alberto Carrassi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1903–1924,Short summary
All scales of a dynamical physical process cannot be resolved accurately in a multiscale, geophysical model. The behavior of unresolved scales of motion are often parametrized by a random process to emulate their effects on the dynamically resolved variables, and this results in a random–dynamical model. We study how the choice of a numerical discretization of such a system affects the model forecast and estimation statistics, when the random–dynamical model is unbiased in its parametrization.
Thomas Lauvaux, Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Marc Bocquet, and Nicolas Bousserez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12007–12024,Short summary
A small-size ensemble of mesoscale simulations has been filtered to characterize the spatial structures of transport errors in atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios. The extracted error structures in in situ and column CO2 show similar length scales compared to other meteorological variables, including seasonality, which could be used as proxies in regional inversion systems.
Marc Bocquet, Julien Brajard, Alberto Carrassi, and Laurent Bertino
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 143–162,Short summary
This paper describes an innovative way to use data assimilation to infer the dynamics of a physical system from its observation only. The method can operate with noisy and partial observation of the physical system. It acts as a deep learning technique specialised to dynamical models without the need for machine learning tools. The method is successfully tested on chaotic dynamical systems: the Lorenz-63, Lorenz-96, and Kuramoto–Sivashinski models and a two-scale Lorenz model.
Julien Brajard, Alberto Carrassi, Marc Bocquet, and Laurent Bertino
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
We explore the possibility of combining data assimilation with machine learning. We introduce a new hybrid method for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting its future states. Numerical experiments have been carried out using the chaotic Lorenz 96 model, proving both the convergence of the hybrid method and its statistical skills including short-term forecasting and emulation of the long-term dynamics.
Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Thomas Lauvaux, Marc Bocquet, and Kenneth J. Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5695–5718,Short summary
We demonstrate that transport model errors, one of the main contributors to the uncertainty in regional CO2 inversions, can be represented by a small-size ensemble carefully calibrated with meteorological data. Our results also confirm transport model errors represent a significant fraction of the model–data mismatch in CO2 mole fractions and hence in regional inverse CO2 fluxes.
Alban Farchi and Marc Bocquet
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 765–807,Short summary
Data assimilation looks for an optimal way to learn from observations of a dynamical system to improve the quality of its predictions. The goal is to filter out the noise (both observation and model noise) to retrieve the true signal. Among all possible methods, particle filters are promising; the method is fast and elegant, and it allows for a Bayesian analysis. In this review paper, we discuss implementation techniques for (local) particle filters in high-dimensional systems.
Colin Grudzien, Alberto Carrassi, and Marc Bocquet
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 633–648,Short summary
Using the framework Lyapunov vectors, we analyze the asymptotic properties of ensemble based Kalman filters and how these are influenced by dynamical chaos, especially in the context of random model errors and small ensemble sizes. Particularly, we show a novel derivation of the evolution of forecast uncertainty for ensemble-based Kalman filters with weakly-nonlinear error growth, and discuss its impact for filter design in geophysical models.
Olivier Pannekoucke, Marc Bocquet, and Richard Ménard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 481–495,Short summary
The forecast of weather prediction uncertainty is a real challenge and is crucial for risk management. However, uncertainty prediction is beyond the capacity of supercomputers, and improvements of the technology may not solve this issue. A new uncertainty prediction method is introduced which takes advantage of fluid equations to predict simple quantities which approximate real uncertainty but at a low numerical cost. A proof of concept is shown by an academic model derived from fluid dynamics.
Anthony Fillion, Marc Bocquet, and Serge Gratton
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 315–334,Short summary
This study generalizes a paper by Pires et al. (1996) to state-of-the-art data assimilation techniques, such as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS). We show that the longer the time window over which observations are assimilated, the better the accuracy of the IEnKS. Beyond a critical time length that we estimate, we show that this accuracy finally degrades. We show that the use of the quasi-static minimizations but generalized to the IEnKS yields a significantly improved accuracy.
Youngseob Kim, You Wu, Christian Seigneur, and Yelva Roustan
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 611–629,Short summary
A new multi-scale model of urban air pollution is presented. This model combines a regional chemical transport model (CTM) with spatial scales down to 1 km and a street-network model. The street-network model MUNICH is coupled to the Polair3D CTM to constitute the Street-in-Grid (SinG) model. SinG and MUNICH are used to simulate the concentrations of NOx and ozone in a Paris suburb. SinG shows better performance than MUNICH for NO2 measured at monitoring stations within a street canyon.
Sébastien Ars, Grégoire Broquet, Camille Yver Kwok, Yelva Roustan, Lin Wu, Emmanuel Arzoumanian, and Philippe Bousquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 5017–5037,Short summary
This study presents a new concept for estimating the pollutant emission rates of a site combining the tracer release method, local-scale atmospheric transport modelling and a statistical atmospheric inversion approach. The potential of this new concept is evaluated with a practical implementation based on a series of inversions of controlled methane and tracer point sources in different spatial configurations to assess the efficiency of the method in comparison with the classic tracer method.
Augustin Colette, Camilla Andersson, Astrid Manders, Kathleen Mar, Mihaela Mircea, Maria-Teresa Pay, Valentin Raffort, Svetlana Tsyro, Cornelius Cuvelier, Mario Adani, Bertrand Bessagnet, Robert Bergström, Gino Briganti, Tim Butler, Andrea Cappelletti, Florian Couvidat, Massimo D'Isidoro, Thierno Doumbia, Hilde Fagerli, Claire Granier, Chris Heyes, Zig Klimont, Narendra Ojha, Noelia Otero, Martijn Schaap, Katarina Sindelarova, Annemiek I. Stegehuis, Yelva Roustan, Robert Vautard, Erik van Meijgaard, Marta Garcia Vivanco, and Peter Wind
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3255–3276,Short summary
The EURODELTA-Trends numerical experiment has been designed to assess the capability of chemistry-transport models to capture the evolution of surface air quality over the 1990–2010 period in Europe. It also includes sensitivity experiments in order to analyse the relative contribution of (i) emission changes, (ii) meteorological variability, and (iii) boundary conditions to air quality trends. The article is a detailed presentation of the experiment design and participating models.
J.-M. Haussaire and M. Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 393–412,Short summary
The focus is on the development of low-order models of atmospheric transport and chemistry and their use for data assimilation purposes. A new low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model is developed. It consists of the Lorenz40-variable model used as a wind field coupled with a simple ozone photochemistry module. Advanced ensemble variational methods are applied to this model to obtain insights on the use of data assimilation with coupled models, in an offline mode or in an online mode.
M. Bocquet, P. N. Raanes, and A. Hannart
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 645–662,Short summary
The popular data assimilation technique known as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) suffers from sampling errors due to the limited size of the ensemble. This deficiency is usually cured by inflating the sampled error covariances and by using localization. This paper further develops and discusses the finite-size EnKF, or EnKF-N, a variant of the EnKF that does not require inflation. It expands the use of the EnKF-N to a wider range of dynamical regimes.
M. Bocquet, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, M. Hirtl, R. Žabkar, G. R. Carmichael, J. Flemming, A. Inness, M. Pagowski, J. L. Pérez Camaño, P. E. Saide, R. San Jose, M. Sofiev, J. Vira, A. Baklanov, C. Carnevale, G. Grell, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358,Short summary
Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of concentrations, and perform inverse modeling. Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models, with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM.
N. Cherin, Y. Roustan, L. Musson-Genon, and C. Seigneur
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 893–910,Short summary
Atmospheric dry deposition is classically modelled using an average roughness length. This approach cannot account for the spatial variability of dry deposition in urban areas. We extend here the urban canyon concept, previously introduced to parametrise momentum and heat transfer to mass transfer. This approach provides spatially distributed dry deposition fluxes that depend on surfaces (streets, walls, roofs) and flow regimes (recirculation and ventilation) within the urban area.
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, P. Chazette, M. Sicard, G. D'Amico, J. F. Léon, L. Alados-Arboledas, A. Amodeo, P. Augustin, J. Bach, L. Belegante, I. Binietoglou, X. Bush, A. Comerón, H. Delbarre, D. García-Vízcaino, J. L. Guerrero-Rascado, M. Hervo, M. Iarlori, P. Kokkalis, D. Lange, F. Molero, N. Montoux, A. Muñoz, C. Muñoz, D. Nicolae, A. Papayannis, G. Pappalardo, J. Preissler, V. Rizi, F. Rocadenbosch, K. Sellegri, F. Wagner, and F. Dulac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12031–12053,
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, and P. Chazette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3511–3532,
O. Saunier, A. Mathieu, D. Didier, M. Tombette, D. Quélo, V. Winiarek, and M. Bocquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403–11421,
M. Bocquet and P. Sakov
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 803–818,
M. R. Koohkan, M. Bocquet, Y. Roustan, Y. Kim, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5887–5905,
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, and P. Chazette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 269–283,
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)Surface deposition of marine fog and its treatment in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelAssessing the potential efficacy of marine cloud brightening for cooling Earth using a simple heuristic modelAerosol effects on electrification and lightning discharges in a multicell thunderstorm simulated by the WRF-ELEC modelThe response of the Amazon ecosystem to the photosynthetically active radiation fields: integrating impacts of biomass burning aerosol and clouds in the NASA GEOS Earth system model“Warm cover”: precursory strong signals for haze pollution hidden in the middle troposphereThe MAPM (Mapping Air Pollution eMissions) method for inferring particulate matter emissions maps at city scale from in situ concentration measurements: description and demonstration of capabilityCharacteristics of surface energy balance and atmospheric circulation during hot-and-polluted episodes and their synergistic relationships with urban heat islands over the Pearl River Delta regionInfluence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclonesForecasting and identifying the meteorological and hydrological conditions favoring the occurrence of severe hazes in Beijing and Shanghai using deep learningImproving prediction of trans-boundary biomass burning plume dispersion: from northern peninsular Southeast Asia to downwind western North Pacific OceanDecadal changes of connections among late-spring snow cover in West Siberia, summer Eurasia teleconnection and O3-related meteorology in North ChinaBetter representation of dust can improve climate models with too weak an African monsoonReduced light absorption of black carbon (BC) and its influence on BC-boundary-layer interactions during “APEC Blue”Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system modelEvaluation of natural aerosols in CRESCENDO Earth system models (ESMs): mineral dustOn the contribution of fast and slow responses to precipitation changes caused by aerosol perturbations15-year variability of desert dust optical depth on global and regional scalesA black carbon peak in the free troposphere of Beijing induced by cyclone lifting and transport from Central ChinaUnderstanding the surface temperature response and its uncertainty to CO2, CH4, black carbon and sulfateGlobal–regional nested simulation of particle number concentration by combing microphysical processes with an evolving organic aerosol moduleElevated 3D structures of PM2.5 and impact of complex terrain-forcing circulations on heavy haze pollution over Sichuan Basin, ChinaModelling the size distribution of aggregated volcanic ash and implications for operational atmospheric dispersion modellingImproved representation of the global dust cycle using observational constraints on dust properties and abundanceContribution of the world's main dust source regions to the global cycle of desert dustEffect of volcanic emissions on clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing eventsWintertime direct radiative effects due to black carbon (BC) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventories in CHIMEREFuture changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenariosPresent-day radiative effect from radiation-absorbing aerosols in snowSeasonal variation in atmospheric pollutants transport in central Chile: dynamics and consequencesNon-equilibrium interplay between gas–particle partitioning and multiphase chemical reactions of semi-volatile compounds: mechanistic insights and practical implications for atmospheric modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbonsAerosol reductions outweigh circulation changes for future improvements in Beijing hazeAerosol acidity and liquid water content regulate the dry deposition of inorganic reactive nitrogenEnhanced light absorption and reduced snow albedo due to internally mixed mineral dust in grains of snowCoral-reef-derived dimethyl sulfide and the climatic impact of the loss of coral reefsA weather regime characterisation of winter biomass aerosol transport from southern AfricaHow Asian aerosols impact regional surface temperatures across the globeAerosol dynamics and dispersion of radioactive particlesDevelopment and intercity transferability of land-use regression models for predicting ambient PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 concentrations in northern TaiwanConstraints on global aerosol number concentration, SO2 and condensation sink in UKESM1 using ATom measurementsReduced effective radiative forcing from cloud-aerosol interactions (ERFaci) with improved treatment of early aerosol growth in an Earth System ModelTurbulence-permitting air pollution simulation for the Stuttgart metropolitan areaTemporally resolved sectoral and regional contributions to air pollution in Beijing: informing short-term emission controlsDrivers of the fungal spore bioaerosol budget: observational analysis and global modelingImproving the sectional Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) aerosols of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with the revised Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system and multi-wavelength aerosol optical measurements: the dust aerosol observation campaign at Kashi, near the Taklimakan Desert, northwestern ChinaA revised mineral dust emission scheme in GEOS-Chem: improvements in dust simulations over ChinaQuantifying the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to source mineralogy uncertaintyTechnical note: The enhancement limit of coagulation scavenging of small charged particlesThe effect of meteorological conditions and atmospheric composition in the occurrence and development of new particle formation (NPF) events in EuropeEffectiveness of emission control in reducing PM2.5 pollution in central China during winter haze episodes under various potential synoptic controlsAssessment of meteorology vs. control measures in the China fine particular matter trend from 2013 to 2019 by an environmental meteorology index
Peter A. Taylor, Zheqi Chen, Li Cheng, Soudeh Afsharian, Wensong Weng, George A. Isaac, Terry W. Bullock, and Yongsheng Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14687–14702,Short summary
In marine fog, droplets will impact the water surface, collide and coalesce. This removal process is underestimated or ignored in many fog and weather forecast models. A new atmospheric boundary layer approach is proposed and tested in a standard weather forecast model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF). New profile measurements through marine fog layers are suggested.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14507–14533,Short summary
A simple model is described to assess the potential for increasing solar reflection by augmenting the aerosol population below marine low clouds, which increases the concentration of cloud droplets. The model is used to predict global cooling from marine cloud brightening climate intervention as a function of the quantity, size, and lifetime of salt particles injected per sprayer, the number of sprayers deployed, the cloud updraft speed, and unperturbed aerosol size distribution.
Mengyu Sun, Dongxia Liu, Xiushu Qie, Edward R. Mansell, Yoav Yair, Alexandre O. Fierro, Shanfeng Yuan, Zhixiong Chen, and Dongfang Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14141–14158,Short summary
By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increasing aerosol loading tends to enhance lightning activity through microphysical processes. We investigated the aerosol effects on the development of a thunderstorm. A two-moment bulk microphysics scheme and bulk lightning model were coupled in the WRF Model to simulate a multicell thunderstorm. Sensitivity experiments show that the enhancement of lightning activity under polluted conditions results from an increasing ice crystal number.
Huisheng Bian, Eunjee Lee, Randal D. Koster, Donifan Barahona, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Anton Darmenov, Sarith Mahanama, Michael Manyin, Peter Norris, John Shilling, Hongbin Yu, and Fanwei Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14177–14197,Short summary
The study using the NASA Earth system model shows ~2.6 % increase in burning season gross primary production and ~1.5 % increase in annual net primary production across the Amazon Basin during 2010–2016 due to the change in surface downward direct and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation by biomass burning aerosols. Such an aerosol effect is strongly dependent on the presence of clouds. The cloud fraction at which aerosols switch from stimulating to inhibiting plant growth occurs at ~0.8.
Xiangde Xu, Wenyue Cai, Tianliang Zhao, Xinfa Qiu, Wenhui Zhu, Chan Sun, Peng Yan, Chunzhu Wang, and Fei Ge
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14131–14139,Short summary
We found that the structure of atmospheric thermodynamics in the troposphere can be regarded as a strong forewarning signal for variations of surface PM2.5 concentration in heavy air pollution.
Brian Nathan, Stefanie Kremser, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Greg Bodeker, Leroy Bird, Ethan Dale, Dongqi Lin, Gustavo Olivares, and Elizabeth Somervell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14089–14108,Short summary
The MAPM project showcases a method to improve estimates of PM2.5 emissions through an advanced statistical technique that is still new to the aerosol community. Using Christchurch, NZ, as a test bed, measurements from a field campaign in winter 2019 are incorporated into this new approach. An overestimation from local inventory estimates is identified. This technique may be exported to other urban areas in need.
Ifeanyichukwu C. Nduka, Chi-Yung Tam, Jianping Guo, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13443–13454,Short summary
This study analyzed the nature, mechanisms and drivers for hot-and-polluted episodes (HPEs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. A total of eight HPEs were identified and can be grouped into three clusters of HPEs that were respectively driven (1) by weak subsidence and convection induced by approaching tropical cyclones, (2) by calm conditions with low wind speed in the lower atmosphere and (3) by the combination of both aforementioned conditions.
Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13353–13368,Short summary
Given the hazardous nature of medicanes, studies focused on understanding and quantifying the processes governing their formation have become paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction. Therefore, enhancing the modeling and forecasting capabilities of such events is of crucial importance. In this sense, the authors find that the microphysical processes, and specifically the wind--sea salt aerosol feedback, play a key role in their development and thus should not be neglected.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13149–13166,Short summary
Haze caused by abundant atmospheric aerosols has become a serious environmental issue in many countries. An innovative deep-learning machine has been developed to forecast the occurrence of hazes in two Asian megacities (Beijing and Shanghai) and has achieved good overall accuracy. Using this machine, typical regional meteorological and hydrological regimes associated with haze and non-haze events in the two cities have also been, arguably for the first time, successfully categorized.
Maggie Chel-Gee Ooi, Ming-Tung Chuang, Joshua S. Fu, Steven S. Kong, Wei-Syun Huang, Sheng-Hsiang Wang, Sittichai Pimonsree, Andy Chan, Shantanu Kumar Pani, and Neng-Huei Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12521–12541,Short summary
There is very limited local modeling effort in Southeast Asia, where haze is an annually recurring threat. In this work, the accuracy of haze prediction is improved not only at the burning source but also at the downwind site in northern Southeast Asia to highlight the influence of trans-boundary haze, which is often regional. The burning haze is carried to the populated west of Taiwan via several mechanisms, with the most severe conditions related to the boreal winter pressure system.
Zhicong Yin, Yu Wan, and Huijun Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11519–11530,Short summary
Severe ozone pollution frequently occurred in North China and obviously damages human health and ecosystems. The meteorological conditions effectively affect the variations in ozone pollution by modulating the natural emissions of O3 precursors and photochemical reactions in the atmosphere. In this study, the interannual relationship between ozone-related meteorology and late-spring snow cover in West Siberia was explored, and the reasons of its decadal change were also physically explained.
Yves Balkanski, Rémy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, and Jérôme Servonnat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11423–11435,Short summary
Earth system models have persistent biases that impinge on our ability to make robust future regional predictions of precipitation. For the last 15 years, there has been little improvement in these biases. This work presents an accurate representation of dust absorption based upon observed dust mineralogical composition and size distribution. The striking result is that this more accurate representation improves tropical precipitations for climate models with too weak an African monsoon.
Meng Gao, Yang Yang, Hong Liao, Bin Zhu, Yuxuan Zhang, Zirui Liu, Xiao Lu, Chen Wang, Qiming Zhou, Yuesi Wang, Qiang Zhang, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Jianlin Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11405–11421,Short summary
Light absorption and radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) is influenced by both BC itself and its interactions with other aerosol chemical compositions. In this study, we used the online coupled WRF-Chem model to examine how emission control measures during the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference affect the mixing state and light absorption of BC and the associated implications for BC-PBL interactions.
Ulas Im, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, Peter L. Langen, Joshua P. French, Rashed Mahmood, Manu A. Thomas, Knut von Salzen, Daniel C. Thomas, Cynthia H. Whaley, Zbigniew Klimont, Henrik Skov, and Jørgen Brandt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10413–10438,Short summary
Future (2015–2050) simulations of the aerosol burdens and their radiative forcing and climate impacts over the Arctic under various emission projections show that although the Arctic aerosol burdens are projected to decrease significantly by 10 to 60 %, regardless of the magnitude of aerosol reductions, surface air temperatures will continue to increase by 1.9–2.6 ℃, while sea-ice extent will continue to decrease, implying reductions of greenhouse gases are necessary to mitigate climate change.
Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Samuel Albani, Tommi Bergman, Ken Carslaw, Anne Cozic, Chris Dearden, Beatrice Marticorena, Martine Michou, Twan van Noije, Pierre Nabat, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Joseph M. Prospero, Philippe Le Sager, Michael Schulz, and Catherine Scott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10295–10335,Short summary
Thousands of tons of dust are emitted into the atmosphere every year, producing important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models are not yet able to reproduce dust emissions, transport and depositions with the desirable accuracy. Our study analyses five different Earth system models to report aspects to be improved to reproduce better available observations, increase the consistency between models and therefore decrease the current uncertainties.
Shipeng Zhang, Philip Stier, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10179–10197,Short summary
The relationship between aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric energetics and precipitation responses across different scales is studied in terms of fast (radiatively or microphysically mediated) and slow (temperature-mediated) responses. We introduced a method to decompose rainfall changes into contributions from clouds, aerosols, and clear–clean sky from an energetic perspective. It provides a way to better interpret and quantify the precipitation changes caused by aerosol perturbations.
Stavros-Andreas Logothetis, Vasileios Salamalikis, Antonis Gkikas, Stelios Kazadzis, Vassilis Amiridis, and Andreas Kazantzidis
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
This study investigates the temporal trends of dust optical depth (DOD; 550 nm) on global, regional and seasonal scales over the 15-year period (2003–2017), using the MIDAS (ModIs Dust AeroSol) data set. The findings of this study revealed that the DOD was increased across the Central Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula with opposite trends over the Eastern and Western Sahara, the Thar and Gobi Deserts, in Bodélé Depression and in south Mediterranean.
Zhenbin Wang, Bin Zhu, Hanqing Kang, Wen Lu, Shuqi Yan, Delong Zhao, and Weihang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
In this paper, by using the WRF-Chem with a BC-tagging technique, we investigate the formation mechanism and regional sources of a BC peak in the free troposphere observed by aircraft flight. Local sources dominated BC from the surface to about 700 m (78.5 %), while the BC peak in the free troposphere was almost imported from external sources (99.8 %). Our results indicate that cyclone systems can quickly lift BC up to the free troposphere, as well as extend their lifetimes.
Kalle Nordling, Hannele Korhonen, Jouni Räisänen, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Bjørn Samset, and Joonas Merikanto
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
Understanding the temperature responses to different climate forcing agents, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is crucial for understanding future regional climate changes. In climate models, the regional temperature responses vary for all forcing agents, but the causes of this variability are poorly understood. For all forcing agents, the main component contributing to variance in regional surface temperature responses between the climate models is the clear-sky longwave emissivity.
Xueshun Chen, Fangqun Yu, Wenyi Yang, Yele Sun, Huansheng Chen, Wei Du, Jian Zhao, Ying Wei, Lianfang Wei, Huiyun Du, Zhe Wang, Qizhong Wu, Jie Li, Junling An, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9343–9366,Short summary
Atmospheric aerosol particles have significant climate and health effects that depend on aerosol size, composition, and mixing state. A new global-regional nested aerosol model with an advanced particle microphysics module and a volatility basis set organic aerosol module was developed to simulate aerosol microphysical processes. Simulations strongly suggest the important role of anthropogenic organic species in particle formation over the areas influenced by anthropogenic sources.
Zhuozhi Shu, Yubao Liu, Tianliang Zhao, Junrong Xia, Chenggang Wang, Le Cao, Haoliang Wang, Lei Zhang, Yu Zheng, Lijuan Shen, Lei Luo, and Yueqing Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9253–9268,Short summary
Focusing on a heavy haze pollution event in the Sichuan Basin (SCB), we investigated the elevated 3D structure of PM2.5 and trans-boundary transport with the WRF-Chem simulation. It is remarkable for vertical PM2.5 that the unique hollows were structured, which which occurred by the interaction of vortex circulations and topographic effects. The SCB was regarded as the major air pollutant source with the trans-boundary transport of PM2.5 affecting atmospheric environment changes.
Frances Beckett, Eduardo Rossi, Benjamin Devenish, Claire Witham, and Costanza Bonadonna
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
As volcanic ash is transported through the atmosphere it may collide and stick together to form aggregates. Neglecting the process of aggregation in atmospheric dispersion models could lead to inaccurate forecasts used by civil aviation for hazard assessment. We have developed an aggregation scheme for use with the model NAME, which is used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Using our scheme, we investigate the impact of aggregation on simulations of the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 ash cloud.
Jasper F. Kok, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas S. Hamilton, Yue Huang, Akinori Ito, Martina Klose, Danny M. Leung, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Adriana Rocha-Lima, Jessica S. Wan, and Chloe A. Whicker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8127–8167,Short summary
Desert dust interacts with virtually every component of the Earth system, including the climate system. We develop a new methodology to represent the global dust cycle that integrates observational constraints on the properties and abundance of desert dust with global atmospheric model simulations. We show that the resulting representation of the global dust cycle is more accurate than what can be obtained from a large number of current climate global atmospheric models.
Jasper F. Kok, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas S. Hamilton, Yue Huang, Akinori Ito, Martina Klose, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Adriana Rocha-Lima, and Jessica S. Wan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8169–8193,Short summary
The many impacts of dust on the Earth system depend on dust mineralogy, which varies between dust source regions. We constrain the contribution of the world’s main dust source regions by integrating dust observations with global model simulations. We find that Asian dust contributes more and that North African dust contributes less than models account for. We obtain a dataset of each source region’s contribution to the dust cycle that can be used to constrain dust impacts on the Earth system.
Katherine H. Breen, Donifan Barahona, Tianle Yuan, Huisheng Bian, and Scott C. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7749–7771,Short summary
Increases in atmospheric aerosols affect the scattering and absorption of solar radiation by altering the macrophysical and microphysical processes of clouds. We analyzed aerosol–cloud interactions in response to degassing events from the Kilauea volcano in 2008 and 2018 by comparing satellite and simulated cloud properties. Results showed a threshold response to overcome meteorological effects that is largely controlled by aerosol concentration, composition, plume height, and ENSO state.
Sanhita Ghosh, Shubha Verma, Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, and Laurent Menut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7671–7694,Short summary
Wintertime direct radiative perturbation due to black carbon (BC) aerosols was assessed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain with an efficiently modelled BC distribution. The atmospheric radiative warming due to BC was about 50–70 % larger than surface cooling. Compared to the atmosphere without BC, for which a net cooling at the top of the atmosphere was exhibited, enhanced atmospheric radiative warming by 2–3 times and a reduction in surface cooling by 10–20 % were found due to BC.
Lixia Zhang, Laura J. Wilcox, Nick J. Dunstone, David J. Paynter, Shuai Hu, Massimo Bollasina, Donghuan Li, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, and Liwei Zou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7499–7514,Short summary
The projected frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events and global warming increases significantly due to weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol further increases the frequency of circulation patterns, but haze events are less dangerous. We revealed competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze intensity and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns.
Paolo Tuccella, Giovanni Pitari, Valentina Colaiuda, Edoardo Raparelli, and Gabriele Curci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6875–6893,Short summary
We calculate the radiation-absorbing aerosol quantity in snow with a global chemical and transport atmospheric model, validated with global observations. The perturbation to snow albedo and related climatic impact are assessed. The resulting average radiative flux change in snow is 0.068 W m−2. Black carbon is a major contributor (+0.033 W m−2), followed by dust (+0.012 W m−2) and brown carbon (+0.0066 W m−2). The impact is also characterized by significant seasonal and geographical variability.
Rémy Lapere, Laurent Menut, Sylvain Mailler, and Nicolás Huneeus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6431–6454,Short summary
Based on modeling, the transport dynamics of ozone and fine particles in central Chile are investigated. Santiago emissions are found to influence air quality along a 1000 km plume as far as Argentina and northern Chile. In turn, emissions outside the metropolis contribute significantly to its recorded particles concentration. Emissions of precursors from Santiago are found to lead to the formation of a persistent ozone bubble in altitude, a phenomenon which is described for the first time.
Jake Wilson, Ulrich Pöschl, Manabu Shiraiwa, and Thomas Berkemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6175–6198,Short summary
This work explores the gas–particle partitioning of PAHs on soot with a kinetic model. We show that the equilibration timescale depends on PAH molecular structure, temperature, and particle number concentration. We explore scenarios in which the particulate fraction is perturbed from equilibrium by chemical loss and discuss implications for chemical transport models that assume instantaneous equilibration at each model time step.
Liang Guo, Laura J. Wilcox, Massimo Bollasina, Steven T. Turnock, Marianne T. Lund, and Lixia Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
Severe haze remains serious over Beijing despite of emissions decrease since 2008. Future haze changes in four scenarios are studied. The conducive haze weather pattern increases with the atmospheric warning caused by the accumulating greenhouse gases. However, the actual haze intensity, measured by either PM2.5 or the optical depth, decreases with aerosol emissions. We show that only using the weather pattern index to predict the future change of Beijing haze is insufficient.
Athanasios Nenes, Spyros N. Pandis, Maria Kanakidou, Armistead G. Russell, Shaojie Song, Petros Vasilakos, and Rodney J. Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6023–6033,Short summary
Ecosystems and air quality are affected by the dry deposition of inorganic reactive nitrogen (Nr, the sum of ammonium and nitrate). Its large variability is driven by the large difference in deposition velocity of N when in the gas or particle phase. Here we show that aerosol liquid water and acidity, by affecting gas–particle partitioning, modulate the dry deposition velocity of NH3, HNO3, and Nr worldwide. These effects explain the rapid accumulation of nitrate aerosol during haze events.
Tenglong Shi, Jiecan Cui, Yang Chen, Yue Zhou, Wei Pu, Xuanye Xu, Quanliang Chen, Xuelei Zhang, and Xin Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6035–6051,Short summary
We assess the effect of dust external and internal mixing with snow grains on the absorption coefficient and albedo of snowpack. The results suggest that dust–snow internal mixing strongly enhances snow absorption coefficient and albedo reduction relative to external mixing. Meanwhile, the possible non-uniform distribution of dust in snow grains may lead to significantly different values of absorption coefficient and albedo of snowpack in the visible spectral range.
Sonya L. Fiddes, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Todd P. Lane, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5883–5903,Short summary
Coral reefs are known to produce the aerosol precursor dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Currently, this source of coral DMS is unaccounted for in climate modelling, and the impact of coral reef extinction on aerosol and climate is unknown. In this study, we address this problem using a coupled chemistry–climate model for the first time. We find that coral reefs make a minimal contribution to the aerosol population and are unlikely to play a role in climate modulation.
Marco Gaetani, Benjamin Pohl, Maria del Carmen Alvarez Castro, Cyrille Flamant, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
During the dry austral winter, forest fires in tropical Africa emit large amount of smoke in the atmosphere, with large impacts on climate and air quality. The study of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and smoke transport shows that midlatitude atmospheric disturbances may deflect the smoke from the Tropical Africa towards southern Africa. Understanding the distribution of the smoke in the region is very important for climate modelling and air quality monitoring.
Joonas Merikanto, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Jouni Räisänen, Declan O'Donnell, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Hannele Korhonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5865–5881,Short summary
Human-induced aerosols concentrate around their emission sources, yet their climate effects span far and wide. Here, we use two climate models to robustly identify the mechanisms of how Asian anthropogenic aerosols impact temperatures across the globe. A total removal of Asian anthropogenic aerosols increases the global temperatures by 0.26 ± 0.04 °C in the models, with the strongest warming taking place over the Arctic due to increased atmospheric transport of energy towards the high north.
Pontus von Schoenberg, Peter Tunved, Håkan Grahn, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Niklas Brännström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5173–5193,Short summary
In a radiological emergency preparedness system, Lagrangian particle dispersion models are often used to track the dispersion of radioactive material. In this study we have shown the importance of simulating advanced aerosol dynamic processes that are commonly neglected or simplified in these simulations. We show that inclusion of detailed ambient-aerosol dynamics can play a large role in the model result in simulations adopting a more detailed representation of aerosol–cloud interactions.
Zhiyuan Li, Kin-Fai Ho, Hsiao-Chi Chuang, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5063–5078,Short summary
This study established land-use regression (LUR) models using only routine air quality measurement data to support long-term health studies in an Asian metropolitan area. The established LUR models captured the spatial variability in exposure to air pollution with remarkable predictive accuracy. This is the first Asian study to evaluate intercity transferability of LUR models, and it highlights that there exist uncertainties when transferring LUR models between nearby cities.
Ananth Ranjithkumar, Hamish Gordon, Christina Williamson, Andrew Rollins, Kirsty Pringle, Agnieszka Kupc, Nathan Luke Abraham, Charles Brock, and Ken Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4979–5014,Short summary
The effect aerosols have on climate can be better understood by studying their vertical and spatial distribution throughout the atmosphere. We use observation data from the ATom campaign and evaluate the vertical profile of aerosol number concentration, sulfur dioxide and condensation sink using the UKESM (UK Earth System Model). We identify uncertainties in key atmospheric processes that help improve their theoretical representation in global climate models.
Sara Marie Blichner, Moa Kristina Sporre, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
In this study we quantify how a new way of modeling the formation of new particles in the atmosphere, affects the estimated cooling from aerosol-cloud interactions since pre-industrial times. Our improved scheme merges two common approaches to aerosol modelling: a sectional scheme for treating the early growth and the pre-existing modal scheme in the NorESM. We find that the cooling from aerosol-cloud interactions since pre-industrial time is reduced by 10 % when the new scheme is used.
Thomas Schwitalla, Hans-Stefan Bauer, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Thomas Bönisch, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4575–4597,Short summary
A prototype of an air quality forecasting system (AQFS) on a turbulence-permitting (TP) horizontal resolution of 50 m is developed. AQFS is based on the WRF-Chem model and uses high-resolution emission data from different pollution sources. A simulation case study of a typical winter day in south Germany serves as a test bed. Results indicate that the complex topography plays an important role for the horizontal and vertical pollution distribution over the Stuttgart metropolitan area.
Tabish Umar Ansari, Oliver Wild, Edmund Ryan, Ying Chen, Jie Li, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4471–4485,Short summary
We use novel modelling approaches to quantify the lingering effects of 1 d local and regional emission controls on subsequent days, the effects of longer continuous emission controls of individual sectors over different regions, and the effects of combined emission controls of multiple sectors and regions on air quality in Beijing under varying weather conditions to inform precise short-term emission control policies for avoiding heavy haze pollution in Beijing.
Ruud H. H. Janssen, Colette L. Heald, Allison L. Steiner, Anne E. Perring, J. Alex Huffman, Ellis S. Robinson, Cynthia H. Twohy, and Luke D. Ziemba
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4381–4401,Short summary
Bioaerosols are ubiquitous in the atmosphere and have the potential to affect cloud formation, as well as human and ecosystem health. However, their emissions are not well quantified, which hinders the assessment of their role in atmospheric processes. Here, we develop two new emission schemes for fungal spores based on multi-annual datasets of spore counts. We find that our modeled global emissions and burden are an order of magnitude lower than previous estimates.
Wenyuan Chang, Ying Zhang, Zhengqiang Li, Jie Chen, and Kaitao Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4403–4430,Short summary
Aerosol simulation in WRF-Chem often uses the MOSAIC aerosol mechanism. Still, we need variational data assimilation (DA) for the MOSAIC aerosols to blend aerosol optical measurements. This study provides a developed GSI variational DA system, with a tangent linear operator designed for multi-source and multi-wavelength aerosol optical measurements. We successfully applied the DA system in an aerosol field campaign to assimilate aerosol optical data in northwestern China.
Rong Tian, Xiaoyan Ma, and Jianqi Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4319–4337,Short summary
We improve the treatment of the dust emission process in GEOS-Chem by considering the effect of geographical variation of aerodynamic roughness length, smooth roughness length and soil texture, as well as the Owen effect and a more physically based formulation of sandblasting efficiency, which improve estimated threshold friction velocity and dust concentrations over China. Our study highlights the importance of incorporation of realistic land-surface properties into the dust emission scheme.
Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Martina Klose, Douglas S. Hamilton, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Paul Ginoux, Yves Balkanski, Robert O. Green, Olga Kalashnikova, Jasper F. Kok, Vincenzo Obiso, David Paynter, and David R. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3973–4005,Short summary
For the first time, this study quantifies the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to uncertainty in the soil mineral abundance using all currently available information. We show that the majority of the estimated direct radiative effect range is due to uncertainty in the simulated mass fractions of iron oxides and thus their soil abundance, which is independent of the model employed. We therefore prove the necessity of considering mineralogy for understanding dust–climate interactions.
Naser G. A. Mahfouz and Neil M. Donahue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3827–3832,Short summary
In this technical note, we show that the limit of the coagulation scavenging enhancement of charged particles is asymptotically 2; that is, at the limit, charged particles are lost at twice the rate of their neutral counterparts. This has serious implications for aerosol particle survivability where ions play a role in nucleation and growth. Such cases can happen readily in experiments and cannot be neglected in the atmosphere.
Dimitrios Bousiotis, James Brean, Francis D. Pope, Manuel Dall'Osto, Xavier Querol, Andrés Alastuey, Noemi Perez, Tuukka Petäjä, Andreas Massling, Jacob Klenø Nøjgaard, Claus Nordstrøm, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Stergios Vratolis, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Jarkko V. Niemi, Harri Portin, Alfred Wiedensohler, Kay Weinhold, Maik Merkel, Thomas Tuch, and Roy M. Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3345–3370,Short summary
New particle formation events from 16 sites over Europe have been studied, and the influence of meteorological and atmospheric composition variables has been investigated. Some variables, like solar radiation intensity and temperature, have a positive effect on the occurrence of these events, while others have a negative effect, affecting different aspects such as the rate at which particles are formed or grow. This effect varies depending on the site type and magnitude of these variables.
Yingying Yan, Yue Zhou, Shaofei Kong, Jintai Lin, Jian Wu, Huang Zheng, Zexuan Zhang, Aili Song, Yongqing Bai, Zhang Ling, Dantong Liu, and Tianliang Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3143–3162,Short summary
We analyze the effectiveness of emission reduction for local and upwind regions during winter haze episodes controlled by the main potential synoptic patterns over central China, a regional pollutant transport hub with sub-basin topography. Our results provide an opportunity to effectively mitigate haze pollution via local emission control actions in coordination with regional collaborative actions according to different synoptic patterns.
Sunling Gong, Hongli Liu, Bihui Zhang, Jianjun He, Hengde Zhang, Yaqiang Wang, Shuxiao Wang, Lei Zhang, and Jie Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2999–3013,Short summary
Surface concentrations of PM2.5 in China have had a declining trend since 2013 across the country. This research found that the control measures of emission reduction are the dominant factors in the PM2.5 declining trends in various regions. The contribution by the meteorology to the surface PM2.5 concentrations from 2013 to 2019 was not found to show a consistent trend, fluctuating positively or negatively by about 5% on the annual average and 10–20% for the fall–winter heavy-pollution seasons.
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The assessment of the environmental consequences of a radionuclide release depends on the estimation of its source. This paper aims to develop inverse Bayesian methods which combine transport models with measurements, in order to reconstruct the ensemble of possible sources. Three methods to quantify uncertainties based on the definition of probability distributions and the physical models are proposed and evaluated for the case of 106Ru releases over Europe in 2017.
The assessment of the environmental consequences of a radionuclide release depends on the...