Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8185-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8185-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Research article
 | 
12 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 12 Jun 2026

Causal inference for quantifying chemical–dynamical pathways controlling tropical middle stratospheric ozone variability

Evgenia Galytska, Birgit Hassler, Carlo Arosio, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip S. Dhomse, Kimberlee Dubé, Wuhu Feng, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Jakob Runge

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Latest update: 31 Aug 2026
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Short summary
We explore how chemical and dynamical processes shape ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere using satellite data and a chemistry-transport model. We apply a framework to identify cause–effect relationships and estimate their strength. For 2004-2021 monthly data, we detect an indirect pathway controlling ozone variability, with effects increasing after two–three months. We further assess how different wind regimes influence this pathway. 
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