Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6061-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6061-2026
Research article
 | 
06 May 2026
Research article |  | 06 May 2026

Significance of microphysical processes for uncertainties in ensemble forecasts of summertime convection over central Europe

Christian Barthlott, Beata Czajka, Christoph Gebhardt, and Corinna Hoose

Data sets

Dataset for manuscript "Significance of microphysical processes for uncertainties in ensemble forecasts of summertime convection over central Europe" C. Barthlott et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17379041

Model code and software

ICON release 2025.04 ICON partnership (MPI-M; DWD; DKRZ; KIT; C2SM) https://doi.org/10.35089/wdcc/iconrelease2025.04

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Short summary
The study uses the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model to examine how microphysical uncertainties affect summertime convection in central Europe. A 108-member ensemble varying aerosol and cloud parameters showed strong differences in precipitation intensity and location but little impact on convection onset. Results highlight that cloud microphysics is a key source of forecast uncertainty in convective weather prediction.
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