Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3669-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-3669-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Mar 2026
Research article |
| 12 Mar 2026
| 12 Mar 2026
Historical and future changes of surface ozone over China from CMIP6 models, including an assessment of present-day uncertainties in model prediction
Shuai Li
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Qi Chen
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center, Beijing 100081, China
Yonghang Chen
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China
Meteorological Service Center for the Core Areas of the Capital, Beijing 100097, China
Zhili Wang
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Xinping Wu
Tazhong Meteorological Station, Qiemo, Xinjiang 841900, China
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Short summary
This study evaluates the uncertainties of CMIP6 models in simulating surface O3 over China, using the Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) dataset under varying temperature, cloud cover, land-surface types, and pollutant levels. Historical changes are analyzed to provide context, while future O3 projections are assessed under different SSPs. Comparison of CMIP6 models under SSP3-7.0 highlights sources of inter-model differences, providing insights for O3 prediction and control in China.
This study evaluates the uncertainties of CMIP6 models in simulating surface O3 over China,...
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