Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-313-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-313-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Jan 2026
Research article |
| 07 Jan 2026
| 07 Jan 2026
Fine-scale fluctuations of PM1, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2 concentrations caused by a prolonged volcanic eruption (Fagradalsfjall 2021, Iceland)
Rachel C. W. Whitty
COMET, Institute of Geophysics and Tectonics, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Evgenia Ilyinskaya
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
COMET, Institute of Geophysics and Tectonics, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Melissa A. Pfeffer
Icelandic Meteorological Office, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland
Ragnar H. Thrastarson
Icelandic Meteorological Office, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland
Þorsteinn Johannsson
The Environment Agency of Iceland, 108 Reykjavík, Iceland
Sara Barsotti
Icelandic Meteorological Office, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland
Tjarda J. Roberts
CNRS UMR7328, Laboratoire de Physique et de Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace, Universite d'Orleans, 45071 Orleans, France
LMD/IPSL, ENS, Université PSL, École Polytechnique, Institute Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, 75005 Paris, France
Guðni M. Gilbert
Icelandic Meteorological Office, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland
Nox Medical, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland
Tryggvi Hjörvar
Icelandic Meteorological Office, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland
Anja Schmidt
Yusuf Hamed Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, United Kingdom
Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA), German Aerospace Centre (DLR), 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Meteorological Institute, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany
Daniela Fecht
MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, W12 0BZ, United Kingdom
Grétar G. Sæmundsson
Department of Research and Analysis, Icelandic Tourist Board, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland
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Man Mei Chim, Nathan Luke Abraham, Thomas J. Aubry, Ben Johnson, Hella Garny, Susan Solomon, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6781–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6781-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6781-2026, 2026
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Sulfate aerosols from explosive eruptions can provide surfaces for chemical reactions destroying ozone. Assessing the effects of volcanic sulfate aerosols is crucial for understanding future ozone recovery. We find sporadic eruptions can induce a small delay in stratospheric ozone recovery by a few years over Antarctica and Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Our results highlight the importance to continuously monitor atmospheric composition and processes to understand changes in ozone recovery.
Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Sujan Khanal, Man Mei Chim, Magali Verkerk, Ben Johnson, Anja Schmidt, Mahesh Kovilakam, Michael Sigl, Zebedee Nicholls, Larry Thomason, Vaishali Naik, Landon Rieger, Dominik Stiller, Elisa Ziegler, Paul Durack, and Isabel H. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3725–3756, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, 2026
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Climate forcings, such as solar radiation or anthropogenic greenhouse gases, are required to run global climate model simulations. Stratospheric aerosols, which mostly originate from large volcanic eruptions, are a key natural forcing. In this paper, we document the stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset that will feed the next generation (CMIP7) of climate models. Our dataset is very different from its predecessor (CMIP6), which might affect simulations of the 1850–2021 climate.
Thomas J. Aubry, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, Man Mei Chim, Magali Verkerk, Anja Schmidt, and Simon A. Carn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-546, 2026
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We document the historical (1750–2023) volcanic sulfur dioxide emission dataset created for phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which is a set of coordinated climate model experiments run by modelling center worldwide. Our dataset underpins the stratospheric aerosol optical property dataset which will be used as input by most climate models. However, models with interactive stratospheric aerosol capability can directly input our emission dataset to run CMIP7 experiments.
Felipe Rojas Vilches, Tobias P. Fischer, Scott Nowicki, Melissa Anne Pfeffer, Felipe Aguilera, Tom D. Pering, Thomas Wilkes, Susana Layana, Cristobal Gonzalez, Matthew Fricke, John Ericksen, and Melanie Moses
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6430, 2026
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Water vapor makes up more than 70 % of volcanic gas emissions but accurate H2O flux measurements remain challenging. We developed a multi-band near-infrared camera system that directly measures volcanic water vapor. Testing and validating our approach at two different volcanic settings in Chile and Iceland we found underestimation of water vapor fluxes and provides data that improves our understanding of volcanic activity and gas release patterns.
Monica Sharma, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Anja Schmidt, Daniel Sauer, and Volker Grewe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8485–8510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8485-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8485-2025, 2025
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A plume model is developed to simulate aerosol microphysics in a dispersing aircraft plume, including interactions between ice crystals and aerosols in vortex regime. Compared to an instantaneous dispersion approach, the plume approach estimates 15 % lower aviation aerosol number concentrations, due to more efficient coagulation at plume scale. The model is sensitive to background conditions and initialization parameters, such as ice crystal number concentration and fuel sulfur content.
Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Chris Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
Clim. Past, 21, 1755–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, 2025
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Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool the climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and can be used in cases of large eruptions in the future.
Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, and Kohei Yoshida
Clim. Past, 21, 161–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-161-2025, 2025
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Large volcanic eruptions have caused temperature deviations over the past 1000 years; however, climate model results and reconstructions of surface cooling using tree rings do not match. We explore this mismatch using the latest models and find a better match to tree-ring reconstructions for some eruptions. Our results show that the way in which eruptions are simulated in models matters for the comparison to tree-rings, particularly regarding the spatial spread of volcanic aerosol.
Jingmin Li, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Christof G. Beer, Ulrike Burkhardt, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12727–12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, 2024
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Aiming to understand underlying patterns and trends in aerosols, we characterize the spatial patterns and long-term evolution of lower tropospheric aerosols by clustering multiple aerosol properties from preindustrial times to the year 2050 under three Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, 2024
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Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter (now X) posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show that even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people. Earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact, but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas J. Aubry, Claudia Timmreck, Anja Schmidt, Lieven Clarisse, Fred Prata, Nicolas Theys, Andrew T. Prata, Graham Mann, Hyundeok Choi, Simon Carn, Richard Rigby, Susan C. Loughlin, and John A. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5765–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, 2024
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The 2019 Raikoke eruption (Kamchatka, Russia) generated one of the largest emissions of particles and gases into the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative, an international effort, provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption and assess its climate impact. The eruption led to a minor global surface cooling of 0.02 °C in 2020 which is negligible relative to warming induced by human greenhouse gas emissions.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
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The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Laura Wainman, Lauren R. Marshall, and Anja Schmidt
Clim. Past, 20, 951–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-951-2024, 2024
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The Mt Samalas eruption had global-scale impacts on climate and has been linked to historical events throughout latter half of the 13th century. Using model simulations and multi-proxy data, we constrain the year and season of the eruption to summer 1257 and investigate the regional-scale variability in surface cooling following the eruption. We also evaluate our model-to-proxy comparison framework and discuss current limitations of the approach.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
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The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
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Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
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This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
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The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
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Short summary
We studied air pollution caused by volcanic emissions, a poorly understood hazard in populated areas. We present a large dataset of high-quality measurements of sulfur dioxide gas and fine aerosol particulate matter collected during ongoing series of eruptions in Iceland. We revealed rapid, localized changes in pollutant concentrations at ground level, with implications for assessing population exposure during volcanic eruptions.
We studied air pollution caused by volcanic emissions, a poorly understood hazard in populated...
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