Articles | Volume 26, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-16067-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-16067-2026
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2026

Process-level contributions to uncertainty in aerosol effective radiative forcing: a perturbed parameter ensemble with ICON–HAM

Hailing Jia, David Neubauer, Yusuf Bhatti, Duncan Watson-Parris, Philip Stier, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Partridge, Ardit Arifi, Anne Kubin, Athanasios Nenes, Muhammed Irfan, Ulas Im, Carl Svenhag, Nick Schutgens, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Ulrike Lohmann, Ina Tegen, Alice Henkes, Guangliang Fu, and Otto Hasekamp

Data sets

Trained Gaussian Process emulators for the ICON-HAM perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) H. Jia https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22780345

Model code and software

duncanwp/ESEm: v1.1.0 (Version v1.1.0) D. Watson-Parris et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5466563

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Short summary
Tiny aerosol particles affect Earth’s climate by interacting with clouds and sunlight, but their impact remains uncertain. Combining climate model simulations and emulators, we explored millions of model variants across different aerosol and cloud settings to identify the causes of the uncertainty. We found that aerosol emissions and cloud convection are key contributors. Our work suggests that better integration of existing observations could help reduce these uncertainties in the future.
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