Evidence for Hunga-Tonga eruption influence on the anomalously strong Northern-Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex in 2024/2025

Kuchar, Ales; Stocker, Matthias; Bell, Alistair; Lehner, Bruno; Kult-Herdin, Jessica; Chiodo, Gabriel; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Rozanov, Eugene; Stober, Gunter; Rieder, Harald E.

doi:10.5194/acp-26-15479-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 21

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15479-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15479-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 21

Research article

|

04 Nov 2026

Research article |

| 04 Nov 2026

Evidence for Hunga-Tonga eruption influence on the anomalously strong Northern-Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex in 2024/2025

Ales Kuchar, Matthias Stocker, Alistair Bell, Bruno Lehner, Jessica Kult-Herdin, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Gunter Stober, and Harald E. Rieder

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-15479-2026-supplement

Data sets

Accompanying data to "Modulation of the Northern polar vortex by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption and associated surface response" and "Was the strengthening of the Northern polar vortex in 2024/2025 associated with the Hunga Tonga eruption?" Ales Kuchar https://doi.org/10.17632/hb3whw3nfr.2

Model code and software

boku-met/HTHH_strengthening: First release of our code repository related to HT-induced SPV strengthening Ales Kuchar et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21514652

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Short summary

We investigated why the Northern Hemisphere winter polar vortex became unusually strong in the winter of 2024/2025. Using satellite and reanalysis datasets, and model simulations, we found that extra water erupted high in the atmosphere by the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption led to cooling of polar latitudes of the upper atmosphere, helping the winds aloft intensify. This link suggests such volcanic eruptions can shape winters in the upper atmosphere for several years.