Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 05 Feb 2025
| 05 Feb 2025
Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Bjørn H. Samset
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
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Total article views: 5,259 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
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- Extreme sandstorms: A nexus of climate, ecological, and economic forces M. Zhang & Z. Zeng https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ynexs.2025.100089
- Climate change paradox: worsening droughts amidst increasing average precipitation across South Korea S. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134658
- Beyond water mapping: Spectral indices as cross-functional predictors of water quality in optically complex inland waters A. Lusia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2026.100727
- Spatiotemporal Variability and Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Arid Region of Ordos, China S. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13020068
- Max-stable process framework for intensity‒duration‒frequency analysis and climate projections in monsoon Bangladesh N. Nikmah et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2026.2638527
- Impact Pathways of Environmental Factors on the Spatiotemporal Variations in Surface Soil Moisture in Tianshan Mountains, China D. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16070736
- Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Populus adenopoda in China Using the MaxEnt Model Y. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111662
- Non-stationary dynamics of compound climate extremes: a WRF-CMIP6-GAMLSS framework for southeastern China Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2031-2026
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- Volcanism-induced collapse and recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions G. Vettoretti et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx2124
- Change in Potential Suitable Areas and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Robinia pseudoacacia Plantations in the “Ω”-Shaped Bend of the Yellow River Under Climate Change Q. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030317
- Climatic controls on vegetation trends and variability in Southeast Asia over the recent two decades W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envadv.2026.100706
- Does climate matter for carbon emissions in cold economies? A nonlinear approach for Finland I. Georgescu & J. Kinnunen https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-025-06924-1
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- An Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Estimating Long-Term Average Discharge at Hydrological Stations Using Global Metadata A. Neftissov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17142097
- Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model T. Duong et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04602-6
- Spatiotemporal evolution and hyetograph changes of global extreme precipitation H. Jin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135325
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A solar-driven dual-function system based on a Z-scheme CoPx/TiO2 heterojunction for water evaporation and hydrogen production Y. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seppur.2025.136209
- Extreme sandstorms: A nexus of climate, ecological, and economic forces M. Zhang & Z. Zeng https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ynexs.2025.100089
- Climate change paradox: worsening droughts amidst increasing average precipitation across South Korea S. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134658
- Beyond water mapping: Spectral indices as cross-functional predictors of water quality in optically complex inland waters A. Lusia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2026.100727
- Spatiotemporal Variability and Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Arid Region of Ordos, China S. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13020068
- Max-stable process framework for intensity‒duration‒frequency analysis and climate projections in monsoon Bangladesh N. Nikmah et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2026.2638527
- Impact Pathways of Environmental Factors on the Spatiotemporal Variations in Surface Soil Moisture in Tianshan Mountains, China D. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16070736
- Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Populus adenopoda in China Using the MaxEnt Model Y. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111662
- Non-stationary dynamics of compound climate extremes: a WRF-CMIP6-GAMLSS framework for southeastern China Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2031-2026
- Urban population exposure to apparent temperature whiplash is projected to increase with global warming Y. Yang & R. Zhao https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03066-7
- Volcanism-induced collapse and recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions G. Vettoretti et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx2124
- Change in Potential Suitable Areas and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Robinia pseudoacacia Plantations in the “Ω”-Shaped Bend of the Yellow River Under Climate Change Q. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030317
- Climatic controls on vegetation trends and variability in Southeast Asia over the recent two decades W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envadv.2026.100706
- Does climate matter for carbon emissions in cold economies? A nonlinear approach for Finland I. Georgescu & J. Kinnunen https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-025-06924-1
- Greek mountain snow cover halved in past four decades due to regional warming K. Alexopoulos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2209-2026
- An Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Estimating Long-Term Average Discharge at Hydrological Stations Using Global Metadata A. Neftissov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17142097
- Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model T. Duong et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04602-6
- Spatiotemporal evolution and hyetograph changes of global extreme precipitation H. Jin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135325
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Jun 2026
Short summary
People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood of events, which occurred once every 10 years in the pre-industrial era. We analyze how summertime precipitation and daily maximum temperature events evolve. Our focus is on understanding the role of day-to-day variability in the change in the number of extreme weather days. We find that in most regions, a change in variability is the primary driver for change in summertime extreme precipitation.
People experience daily weather, not changes in monthly averages. We investigate the likelihood...
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