Articles | Volume 25, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16401-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16401-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Conflict-induced ship traffic disruptions constrain cloud sensitivity to stricter marine pollution regulations
Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
Lili F. Boss
Department of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
Related authors
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Michael S. Diamond, Frida A.-M. Bender, Abhay Devasthale, Matthias Schwarz, Julien Savre, Juha Tonttila, Harri Kokkola, Hyunho Lee, David Painemal, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4591–4610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to study interactions between humid light-absorbing aerosol plumes, clouds, and radiation over the southeast Atlantic. We find that the warming produced by the aerosols reduces cloud cover, especially in highly polluted situations. Aerosol impacts on drizzle play a minor role. However, aerosol effects on cloud reflectivity and moisture-induced changes in cloud cover dominate the climatic response and lead to an overall cooling by the biomass burning plumes.
Michael S. Diamond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8259–8269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8259-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Fuel sulfur regulations were implemented for ships in 2020 to improve air quality but may also accelerate global warming. We use spatial statistics and satellite retrievals to detect changes in the size of cloud droplets and find evidence for a resulting decrease in cloud brightness within a major shipping corridor after the sulfur limits went into effect. Our results confirm both that the regulations are being followed and that they are having a warming influence via their effect on clouds.
Ian Chang, Lan Gao, Connor J. Flynn, Yohei Shinozuka, Sarah J. Doherty, Michael S. Diamond, Karla M. Longo, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Gregory R. Carmichael, Patricia Castellanos, Arlindo M. da Silva, Pablo E. Saide, Calvin Howes, Zhixin Xue, Marc Mallet, Ravi Govindaraju, Qiaoqiao Wang, Yafang Cheng, Yan Feng, Sharon P. Burton, Richard A. Ferrare, Samuel E. LeBlanc, Meloë S. Kacenelenbogen, Kristina Pistone, Michal Segal-Rozenhaimer, Kerry G. Meyer, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Leonhard Pfister, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Robert Wood, Paquita Zuidema, Sundar A. Christopher, and Jens Redemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4283–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Abundant aerosols are present above low-level liquid clouds over the southeastern Atlantic during late austral spring. The model simulation differences in the proportion of aerosol residing in the planetary boundary layer and in the free troposphere can greatly affect the regional aerosol radiative effects. This study examines the aerosol loading and fractional aerosol loading in the free troposphere among various models and evaluates them against measurements from the NASA ORACLES campaign.
Michael S. Diamond, Pablo E. Saide, Paquita Zuidema, Andrew S. Ackerman, Sarah J. Doherty, Ann M. Fridlind, Hamish Gordon, Calvin Howes, Jan Kazil, Takanobu Yamaguchi, Jianhao Zhang, Graham Feingold, and Robert Wood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12113–12151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeast Atlantic from June-October, overlying a major transition region between overcast and scattered clouds. The smoke affects Earth's radiation budget by absorbing sunlight and changing cloud properties. We investigate these effects in regional climate and large eddy simulation models based on international field campaigns. We find that large-scale circulation changes more strongly affect cloud transitions than smoke microphysical effects in our case.
Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Trace gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) are released from a variety of point sources around the globe. Examples include volcanoes, industrial chimneys, forest fires, and ship stacks. These sources provide opportunistic experiments with which to quantify the role of aerosols in modifying cloud properties. We review the current state of understanding on the influence of aerosol on climate built from the wide range of natural and anthropogenic laboratories investigated in recent decades.
Kristina Pistone, Paquita Zuidema, Robert Wood, Michael Diamond, Arlindo M. da Silva, Gonzalo Ferrada, Pablo E. Saide, Rei Ueyama, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Leonhard Pfister, James Podolske, David Noone, Ryan Bennett, Eric Stith, Gregory Carmichael, Jens Redemann, Connor Flynn, Samuel LeBlanc, Michal Segal-Rozenhaimer, and Yohei Shinozuka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9643–9668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using aircraft-based measurements off the Atlantic coast of Africa, we found the springtime smoke plume was strongly correlated with the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (more smoke indicated more humidity). We see the same general feature in satellite-assimilated and free-running models. Our analysis suggests this relationship is not caused by the burning but originates due to coincident continental meteorology plus fires. This air is transported over the ocean without further mixing.
Jens Redemann, Robert Wood, Paquita Zuidema, Sarah J. Doherty, Bernadette Luna, Samuel E. LeBlanc, Michael S. Diamond, Yohei Shinozuka, Ian Y. Chang, Rei Ueyama, Leonhard Pfister, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Amie N. Dobracki, Arlindo M. da Silva, Karla M. Longo, Meloë S. Kacenelenbogen, Connor J. Flynn, Kristina Pistone, Nichola M. Knox, Stuart J. Piketh, James M. Haywood, Paola Formenti, Marc Mallet, Philip Stier, Andrew S. Ackerman, Susanne E. Bauer, Ann M. Fridlind, Gregory R. Carmichael, Pablo E. Saide, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Steven G. Howell, Steffen Freitag, Brian Cairns, Brent N. Holben, Kirk D. Knobelspiesse, Simone Tanelli, Tristan S. L'Ecuyer, Andrew M. Dzambo, Ousmane O. Sy, Greg M. McFarquhar, Michael R. Poellot, Siddhant Gupta, Joseph R. O'Brien, Athanasios Nenes, Mary Kacarab, Jenny P. S. Wong, Jennifer D. Small-Griswold, Kenneth L. Thornhill, David Noone, James R. Podolske, K. Sebastian Schmidt, Peter Pilewskie, Hong Chen, Sabrina P. Cochrane, Arthur J. Sedlacek, Timothy J. Lang, Eric Stith, Michal Segal-Rozenhaimer, Richard A. Ferrare, Sharon P. Burton, Chris A. Hostetler, David J. Diner, Felix C. Seidel, Steven E. Platnick, Jeffrey S. Myers, Kerry G. Meyer, Douglas A. Spangenberg, Hal Maring, and Lan Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1507–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Africa produces significant biomass burning emissions whose impacts on regional and global climate are poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA investigation designed to study the key processes that determine these climate impacts. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project, the dataset it produced, and the most important initial findings.
Alejandro Baró Pérez, Michael S. Diamond, Frida A.-M. Bender, Abhay Devasthale, Matthias Schwarz, Julien Savre, Juha Tonttila, Harri Kokkola, Hyunho Lee, David Painemal, and Annica M. L. Ekman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4591–4610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to study interactions between humid light-absorbing aerosol plumes, clouds, and radiation over the southeast Atlantic. We find that the warming produced by the aerosols reduces cloud cover, especially in highly polluted situations. Aerosol impacts on drizzle play a minor role. However, aerosol effects on cloud reflectivity and moisture-induced changes in cloud cover dominate the climatic response and lead to an overall cooling by the biomass burning plumes.
Michael S. Diamond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8259–8269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8259-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Fuel sulfur regulations were implemented for ships in 2020 to improve air quality but may also accelerate global warming. We use spatial statistics and satellite retrievals to detect changes in the size of cloud droplets and find evidence for a resulting decrease in cloud brightness within a major shipping corridor after the sulfur limits went into effect. Our results confirm both that the regulations are being followed and that they are having a warming influence via their effect on clouds.
Ian Chang, Lan Gao, Connor J. Flynn, Yohei Shinozuka, Sarah J. Doherty, Michael S. Diamond, Karla M. Longo, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Gregory R. Carmichael, Patricia Castellanos, Arlindo M. da Silva, Pablo E. Saide, Calvin Howes, Zhixin Xue, Marc Mallet, Ravi Govindaraju, Qiaoqiao Wang, Yafang Cheng, Yan Feng, Sharon P. Burton, Richard A. Ferrare, Samuel E. LeBlanc, Meloë S. Kacenelenbogen, Kristina Pistone, Michal Segal-Rozenhaimer, Kerry G. Meyer, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Leonhard Pfister, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Robert Wood, Paquita Zuidema, Sundar A. Christopher, and Jens Redemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4283–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Abundant aerosols are present above low-level liquid clouds over the southeastern Atlantic during late austral spring. The model simulation differences in the proportion of aerosol residing in the planetary boundary layer and in the free troposphere can greatly affect the regional aerosol radiative effects. This study examines the aerosol loading and fractional aerosol loading in the free troposphere among various models and evaluates them against measurements from the NASA ORACLES campaign.
Michael S. Diamond, Pablo E. Saide, Paquita Zuidema, Andrew S. Ackerman, Sarah J. Doherty, Ann M. Fridlind, Hamish Gordon, Calvin Howes, Jan Kazil, Takanobu Yamaguchi, Jianhao Zhang, Graham Feingold, and Robert Wood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12113–12151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeast Atlantic from June-October, overlying a major transition region between overcast and scattered clouds. The smoke affects Earth's radiation budget by absorbing sunlight and changing cloud properties. We investigate these effects in regional climate and large eddy simulation models based on international field campaigns. We find that large-scale circulation changes more strongly affect cloud transitions than smoke microphysical effects in our case.
Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Trace gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) are released from a variety of point sources around the globe. Examples include volcanoes, industrial chimneys, forest fires, and ship stacks. These sources provide opportunistic experiments with which to quantify the role of aerosols in modifying cloud properties. We review the current state of understanding on the influence of aerosol on climate built from the wide range of natural and anthropogenic laboratories investigated in recent decades.
Kristina Pistone, Paquita Zuidema, Robert Wood, Michael Diamond, Arlindo M. da Silva, Gonzalo Ferrada, Pablo E. Saide, Rei Ueyama, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Leonhard Pfister, James Podolske, David Noone, Ryan Bennett, Eric Stith, Gregory Carmichael, Jens Redemann, Connor Flynn, Samuel LeBlanc, Michal Segal-Rozenhaimer, and Yohei Shinozuka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9643–9668, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using aircraft-based measurements off the Atlantic coast of Africa, we found the springtime smoke plume was strongly correlated with the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (more smoke indicated more humidity). We see the same general feature in satellite-assimilated and free-running models. Our analysis suggests this relationship is not caused by the burning but originates due to coincident continental meteorology plus fires. This air is transported over the ocean without further mixing.
Jens Redemann, Robert Wood, Paquita Zuidema, Sarah J. Doherty, Bernadette Luna, Samuel E. LeBlanc, Michael S. Diamond, Yohei Shinozuka, Ian Y. Chang, Rei Ueyama, Leonhard Pfister, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Amie N. Dobracki, Arlindo M. da Silva, Karla M. Longo, Meloë S. Kacenelenbogen, Connor J. Flynn, Kristina Pistone, Nichola M. Knox, Stuart J. Piketh, James M. Haywood, Paola Formenti, Marc Mallet, Philip Stier, Andrew S. Ackerman, Susanne E. Bauer, Ann M. Fridlind, Gregory R. Carmichael, Pablo E. Saide, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Steven G. Howell, Steffen Freitag, Brian Cairns, Brent N. Holben, Kirk D. Knobelspiesse, Simone Tanelli, Tristan S. L'Ecuyer, Andrew M. Dzambo, Ousmane O. Sy, Greg M. McFarquhar, Michael R. Poellot, Siddhant Gupta, Joseph R. O'Brien, Athanasios Nenes, Mary Kacarab, Jenny P. S. Wong, Jennifer D. Small-Griswold, Kenneth L. Thornhill, David Noone, James R. Podolske, K. Sebastian Schmidt, Peter Pilewskie, Hong Chen, Sabrina P. Cochrane, Arthur J. Sedlacek, Timothy J. Lang, Eric Stith, Michal Segal-Rozenhaimer, Richard A. Ferrare, Sharon P. Burton, Chris A. Hostetler, David J. Diner, Felix C. Seidel, Steven E. Platnick, Jeffrey S. Myers, Kerry G. Meyer, Douglas A. Spangenberg, Hal Maring, and Lan Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1507–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Africa produces significant biomass burning emissions whose impacts on regional and global climate are poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA investigation designed to study the key processes that determine these climate impacts. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project, the dataset it produced, and the most important initial findings.
Cited articles
Albrecht, B. A.: Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.245.4923.1227, 1989.
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson-Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A.-L., Dufresne, J.-L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B.: Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000660, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019rg000660, 2020.
Benas, N., Meirink, J. F., Roebeling, R., and Stengel, M.: Analysis of ship emission effects on clouds over the southeastern Atlantic using geostationary satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6957–6973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6957-2025, 2025.
Chen, Y.-C., Christensen, M. W., Xue, L., Sorooshian, A., Stephens, G. L., Rasmussen, R. M., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Occurrence of lower cloud albedo in ship tracks, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 8223–8235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-8223-2012, 2012.
Christensen, M. W., Gettelman, A., Cermak, J., Dagan, G., Diamond, M., Douglas, A., Feingold, G., Glassmeier, F., Goren, T., Grosvenor, D. P., Gryspeerdt, E., Kahn, R., Li, Z., Ma, P.-L., Malavelle, F., McCoy, I. L., McCoy, D. T., McFarquhar, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Pal, S., Possner, A., Povey, A., Quaas, J., Rosenfeld, D., Schmidt, A., Schrödner, R., Sorooshian, A., Stier, P., Toll, V., Watson-Parris, D., Wood, R., Yang, M., and Yuan, T.: Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022.
Coakley, J. A. and Walsh, C. D.: Limits to the Aerosol Indirect Radiative Effect Derived from Observations of Ship Tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 668–680, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<0668:Lttair>2.0.Co;2, 2002.
Conover, J. H.: Anomalous Cloud Lines, J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 778–785, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1966)023<0778:Acl>2.0.Co;2, 1966.
Copernicus Sentinel-5P: TROPOMI Level 2 Nitrogen Dioxide total column products, Version 02, European Space Agency [data set], https://doi.org/10.5270/S5P-9bnp8q8, 2021.
Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Huang, G., Guizzardi, D., Koffi, E., Muntean, M., Schieberle, C., Friedrich, R., and Janssens-Maenhout, G.: High resolution temporal profiles in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, Scientific Data, 7, 121–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0462-2, 2020.
Diamond, M. S.: Detection of large-scale cloud microphysical changes within a major shipping corridor after implementation of the International Maritime Organization 2020 fuel sulfur regulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8259–8269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8259-2023, 2023.
Diamond, M. S.: michael-s-diamond/ConflictClouds: Final version, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16637710, 2025.
Diamond, M. S. and Boss, L. F.: Data for Diamond & Boss, ”Conflict-induced ship traffic disruptions constrain cloud sensitivity to stricter marine pollution regulations”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15738910, 2025.
Diamond, M. S., Dobracki, A., Freitag, S., Small Griswold, J. D., Heikkila, A., Howell, S. G., Kacarab, M. E., Podolske, J. R., Saide, P. E., and Wood, R.: Time-dependent entrainment of smoke presents an observational challenge for assessing aerosol–cloud interactions over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18, 14623-14636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14623-2018, 2018.
Diamond, M. S., Director, H. M., Eastman, R., Possner, A., and Wood, R.: Substantial Cloud Brightening from Shipping in Subtropical Low Clouds, AGU Advances, 1, e2019AV000111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019av000111, 2020.
Durkee, P. A., Chartier, R. E., Brown, A., Trehubenko, E. J., Rogerson, S. D., Skupniewicz, C., and Nielsen, K. E.: Composite Ship Track Characteristics, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2542–2553, 2000.
Eastman, R., McCoy, I. L., and Wood, R.: Wind, Rain, and the Closed to Open Cell Transition in Subtropical Marine Stratocumulus, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036795, 2022.
England, M. H., Li, Z., Huguenin, M. F., Kiss, A. E., Sen Gupta, A., Holmes, R. M., and Rahmstorf, S.: Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023, Nature, 642, 636–643, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08903-5, 2025.
European Commission Joint Research Centre: Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, Joint Research Centre Data Catalogue [data set], https://doi.org/10.2904/JRC_DATASET_EDGAR, 2018.
Forster, P. M., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021.
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0758.1, 2017.
Gettelman, A., Christensen, M. W., Diamond, M. S., Gryspeerdt, E., Manshausen, P., Stier, P., Watson-Parris, D., Yang, M., Yoshioka, M., and Yuan, T.: Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl109077, 2024.
Grosvenor, D. P., Sourdeval, O., Zuidema, P., Ackerman, A., Alexandrov, M. D., Bennartz, R., Boers, R., Cairns, B., Chiu, J. C., Christensen, M., Deneke, H., Diamond, M., Feingold, G., Fridlind, A., Hünerbein, A., Knist, C., Kollias, P., Marshak, A., McCoy, D., Merk, D., Painemal, D., Rausch, J., Rosenfeld, D., Russchenberg, H., Seifert, P., Sinclair, K., Stier, P., van Diedenhoven, B., Wendisch, M., Werner, F., Wood, R., Zhang, Z., and Quaas, J.: Remote Sensing of Droplet Number Concentration in Warm Clouds: A Review of the Current State of Knowledge and Perspectives, Rev. Geophys., 56, 409–453, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017rg000593, 2018.
Gryspeerdt, E., Smith, T. W. P., O'Keeffe, E., Christensen, M. W., and Goldsworth, F. W.: The Impact of Ship Emission Controls Recorded by Cloud Properties, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12547–12555, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084700, 2019.
Harris, C. R., Millman, K. J., van der Walt, S. J., Gommers, R., Virtanen, P., Cournapeau, D., Wieser, E., Taylor, J., Berg, S., Smith, N. J., Kern, R., Picus, M., Hoyer, S., van Kerkwijk, M. H., Brett, M., Haldane, A., Del Rio, J. F., Wiebe, M., Peterson, P., Gerard-Marchant, P., Sheppard, K., Reddy, T., Weckesser, W., Abbasi, H., Gohlke, C., and Oliphant, T. E.: Array programming with NumPy, Nature, 585, 357–362, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2649-2, 2020.
Haywood, J. M., Osborne, S. R., and Abel, S. J.: The effect of overlying absorbing aerosol layers on remote sensing retrievals of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 779–800, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.03.100, 2004.
Hoyer, S. and Hamman, J. J.: xarray: N-D labeled Arrays and Datasets in Python, Journal of Open Research Software, 5, 10, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.148, 2017.
Hsu, N. C., Jeong, M.-J., Bettenhausen, C., Sayer, A. M., Hansell, R., Seftor, C. S., Huang, J., and Tsay, S.-C.: Enhanced Deep Blue aerosol retrieval algorithm: The second generation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 9296–9315, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50712, 2013.
Hu, S., Zhu, Y., Rosenfeld, D., Mao, F., Lu, X., Pan, Z., Zang, L., and Gong, W.: The Dependence of Ship-Polluted Marine Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing on Background Drop Concentrations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033852, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033852, 2021.
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.: NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5T72FNM, 2017.
Hunter, J. D.: Matplotlib: A 2D Graphics Environment, Comput. Sci. Eng., 9, 90–95, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2007.55, 2007.
Jordan, G. and Henry, M.: IMO2020 Regulations Accelerate Global Warming by up to 3 Years in UKESM1, Earth's Future, 12, e2024EF005011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005011, 2024.
Klein, S. A. and Hartmann, D. L.: The Seasonal Cycle of Low Stratiform Clouds, J. Climate, 6, 1587–1606, 1993.
Manshausen, P., Watson-Parris, D., Christensen, M. W., Jalkanen, J.-P., and Stier, P.: Rapid saturation of cloud water adjustments to shipping emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12545–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12545-2023, 2023.
March, D., Metcalfe, K., Tintore, J., and Godley, B. J.: Tracking the global reduction of marine traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic, Nat. Commun., 12, 2415, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22423-6, 2021.
Met Office: Cartopy: a cartographic python library with a matplotlib interface, edited by: Met Office, Exeter, Devon, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13905945, 2010–2015.
Meyer, K., Platnick, S., and Zhang, Z.: Simultaneously inferring above-cloud absorbing aerosol optical thickness and underlying liquid phase cloud optical and microphysical properties using MODIS, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 5524–5547, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd023128, 2015.
Minnis, P., Sun-Mack, S., Smith, W. L., Trepte, Q. Z., Hong, G., Chen, Y., Yost, C. R., Chang, F.-L., Smith, R. A., Heck, P. W., and Yang, P.: VIIRS Edition 1 Cloud Properties for CERES, Part 1: Algorithm Adjustments and Results, Remote Sensing, 15, 578, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15030578, 2023.
NASA LAADS DAAC: CLDPROP_M3_MODIS_Aqua - MODIS/Aqua Cloud Properties Level 3 monthly, 1x1 degree grid, NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive & Distribution System [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/CLDPROP_M3_MODIS_Aqua.011, 2019.
NASA VIIRS Atmosphere SIPS: NOAA20 VIIRS Cloud Properties Level 3 monthly, 1x1 degree grid (CLDPROP_M3_VIIRS_NOAA20), Space Science & Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive & Distribution System [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/VIIRS/CLDPROP_M3_VIIRS_NOAA20.011, 2021.
NASA/LARC/SD/ASDC: CERES Time-Interpolated TOA Fluxes, Clouds and Aerosols Monthly NOAA-20 Edition1B, NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/NOAA20/CERES/SSF1DEGMONTH_L3.001B, 2020.
Painemal, D. and Zuidema, P.: Assessment of MODIS cloud effective radius and optical thickness retrievals over the Southeast Pacific with VOCALS-REx in situ measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D24206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016155, 2011.
Petzold, A., Weingartner, E., Hasselbach, J., Lauer, P., Kurok, C., and Fleischer, F.: Physical Properties, Chemical Composition, and Cloud Forming Potential of Particulate Emissions from a Marine Diesel Engine at Various Load Conditions, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 3800–3805, https://doi.org/10.1021/es903681z, 2010.
Platnick, S., Meyer, K. G., King, M. D., Wind, G., Amarasinghe, N., Marchant, B., Arnold, G. T., Zhang, Z., Hubanks, P. A., Holz, R. E., Yang, P., Ridgway, W. L., and Riedi, J.: The MODIS cloud optical and microphysical products: Collection 6 updates and examples from Terra and Aqua, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 55, 502–525, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2016.2610522, 2017.
Pseftogkas, A., Stavrakou, T., Müller, J. F., Koukouli, M. E., Balis, D., and Meleti, C.: Shifts in Maritime Trade Routes as a Result of Red Sea Shipping Crisis Detected in TROPOMI NO2 Data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL110491, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110491, 2024.
Quaglia, I. and Visioni, D.: Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1527–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024, 2024.
Radke, L. F., Coakley, J. A., and King, M. D.: Direct and Remote Sensing Observations of the Effects of Ships on Clouds, Science, 246, 1146–1149, 1989.
Raghuraman, S. P., Soden, B., Clement, A., Vecchi, G., Menemenlis, S., and Yang, W.: The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11275–11283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024, 2024.
Raydan, N. and Nadimi, F.: Tracking Maritime Attacks in the Middle East Since 2019, The Washington Institute for Near East Studies, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/trackingmaritime-attacks-middle-east-2019 (last access: 19 November 2025), 2025.
Ribeiro, P. A., and Diggle, P. J.: geoR: Analysis of Geostatistical Data. R package version 1.7-5.2.1, CRAN [code], https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=geoR (last access: 19 November 2025), https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.geoR, 2018.
Scott, R. C., Myers, T. A., Norris, J. R., Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Sun, M., and Doelling, D. R.: Observed Sensitivity of Low-Cloud Radiative Effects to Meteorological Perturbations over the Global Oceans, J. Climate, 33, 7717–7734, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1028.1, 2020.
Song, H.: Datetimes and Locations of ship-tracks, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/JII4DN, Harvard Dataverse [data set], 2022.
Toll, V., Christensen, M., Quaas, J., and Bellouin, N.: Weak average liquid-cloud-water response to anthropogenic aerosols, Nature, 572, 51–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1423-9, 2019.
Twomey, S.: The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1149-1152, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2, 1977.
van Geffen, J., Eskes, H., Compernolle, S., Pinardi, G., Verhoelst, T., Lambert, J.-C., Sneep, M., ter Linden, M., Ludewig, A., Boersma, K. F., and Veefkind, J. P.: Sentinel-5P TROPOMI NO2 retrieval: impact of version v2.2 improvements and comparisons with OMI and ground-based data, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2037–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2037-2022, 2022.
Veefkind, J. P., Aben, I., McMullan, K., Förster, H., de Vries, J., Otter, G., Claas, J., Eskes, H. J., de Haan, J. F., Kleipool, Q., van Weele, M., Hasekamp, O., Hoogeveen, R., Landgraf, J., Snel, R., Tol, P., Ingmann, P., Voors, R., Kruizinga, B., Vink, R., Visser, H., and Levelt, P. F.: TROPOMI on the ESA Sentinel-5 Precursor: A GMES mission for global observations of the atmospheric composition for climate, air quality and ozone layer applications, Remote Sens. Environ., 120, 70–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.09.027, 2012.
Virtanen, P., Gommers, R., Oliphant, T. E., Haberland, M., Reddy, T., Cournapeau, D., Burovski, E., Peterson, P., Weckesser, W., Bright, J., van der Walt, S. J., Brett, M., Wilson, J., Millman, K. J., Mayorov, N., Nelson, A. R. J., Jones, E., Kern, R., Larson, E., Carey, C. J., Polat, I., Feng, Y., Moore, E. W., VanderPlas, J., Laxalde, D., Perktold, J., Cimrman, R., Henriksen, I., Quintero, E. A., Harris, C. R., Archibald, A. M., Ribeiro, A. H., Pedregosa, F., van Mulbregt, P., and SciPy, C.: SciPy 1.0: fundamental algorithms for scientific computing in Python, Nat. Methods, 17, 261–272, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2, 2020.
Watson-Parris, D., Christensen, M. W., Laurenson, A., Clewley, D., Gryspeerdt, E., and Stier, P.: Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2206885119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2206885119, 2022.
Watson-Parris, D., Wilcox, L. J., Stjern, C. W., Allen, R. J., Persad, G., Bollasina, M. A., Ekman, A. M. L., Iles, C. E., Joshi, M., Lund, M. T., McCoy, D., Westervelt, D. M., Williams, A. I. L., and Samset, B. H.: Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4443–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025, 2025.
Wood, R. and Bretherton, C. S.: On the Relationship between Stratiform Low Cloud Cover and Lower-Tropospheric Stability, J. Climate, 19, 6425–6432, 2006.
Yost, C. R., Minnis, P., Sun-Mack, S., Smith, W. L., and Trepte, Q. Z.: VIIRS Edition 1 Cloud Properties for CERES, Part 2: Evaluation with CALIPSO, Remote Sensing, 15, 1349, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15051349, 2023.
Yuan, T., Song, H., Wood, R., Wang, C., Oreopoulos, L., Platnick, S. E., von Hippel, S., Meyer, K., Light, S., and Wilcox, E.: Global reduction in ship-tracks from sulfur regulations for shipping fuel, Science Advances, 8, eabn7988, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn7988, 2022.
Yuan, T., Song, H., Wood, R., Oreopoulos, L., Platnick, S., Wang, C., Yu, H., Meyer, K., and Wilcox, E.: Observational evidence of strong forcing from aerosol effect on low cloud coverage, Science Advances, 9, eadh7716, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh7716, 2023.
Executive editor
Aerosol particles emitted by ships substantially influence the microphysical properties of marine clouds. In 2020, regulatory changes led to a marked reduction in sulphur emissions, resulting in measurable decreases in cloud droplet concentrations. This study exploits a unique “accidental experiment” triggered by military conflict, which caused a rerouting of shipping traffic in the Red Sea. The authors use this event to robustly quantify how cloud droplet concentrations responded to changes in aerosol emissions associated with the changes in regulations.
Aerosol particles emitted by ships substantially influence the microphysical properties of...
Short summary
Militia attacks on ships in the Red Sea disrupted container ship traffic in 2024. We use these traffic changes to quantify how the cloud-altering properties of ship pollution decreased following sulfur regulations in 2020 with measurements of two types of ship pollution, one of which is sensitive to fuel composition and another which is not. Near Africa, cloud changes in 2024 were nearly as large as before the regulations, but only one-third as strong after accounting for increased traffic.
Militia attacks on ships in the Red Sea disrupted container ship traffic in 2024. We use these...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint