Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ACP
Articles | Volume 24, issue 16
Articles | Volume 24, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9419-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 16
Technical note
 | 
28 Aug 2024
Technical note |  | 28 Aug 2024

Technical note: Posterior uncertainty estimation via a Monte Carlo procedure specialized for 4D-Var data assimilation

Michael Stanley, Mikael Kuusela, Brendan Byrne, and Junjie Liu

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Short summary
To serve the uncertainty quantification (UQ) needs of 4D-Var data assimilation (DA) practitioners, we describe and justify a UQ algorithm from carbon flux inversion and incorporate its sampling uncertainty into the final reported UQ. The algorithm is mathematically proved, and its performance is shown for a carbon flux observing system simulation experiment. These results legitimize and generalize this algorithm's current use and make available this effective algorithm to new DA domains.
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