Articles | Volume 24, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13269-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Weak liquid water path response in ship tracks
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- Final revised paper (published on 02 Dec 2024)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 22 May 2024)
- Supplement to the preprint
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Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1479', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Jun 2024
- RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1479', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Jun 2024
- AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1479', Anna Tippett, 28 Sep 2024
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AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Anna Tippett on behalf of the Authors (28 Sep 2024)
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ED: Publish as is (01 Oct 2024) by Matthias Tesche
AR by Anna Tippett on behalf of the Authors (06 Oct 2024)
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Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) continuously consist one of the largest uncertainties in climate radiative forcing and projections. This study combines a large ensemble of satellite observations, reanalysis meteorology, shipping data and a trajectory model to extensively use natural experiments, aims to develop understanding of the impact of non-linearity nature of clouds on ACI effect derived from ship tracks. Ship tracks are widely used in previous studies for decades to understand ACI, because its excellence in ruling out the confounding factors of metrological co-variability, however an assumption of linear gradients of cloud properties was made. This study uncovers a systematic bias caused by this assumption, resulting in a new finding that liquid water path adjustment in ACI is much weaker than we thought, once the bias is corrected for. This study reconciles dispute between many previous studies in liquid water path adjustment, with both increase, decrease and neutral reported. The scope fit well with ACP. The manuscript is very well written, the results are scientific interesting and politically meaningful with implication in geoengineering. I am happy to recommend for publication, once the concerns as below are addressed.
Specific comments:
1) It is a clever design that the study used null experiment to isolates the response of the cloud to the aerosol perturbation, and removes any effects due to the ship track geometries and alignment with non-linear gradients in the unperturbed. I wonder how representative is for the null experiment, since it was done with one particular year (2019) of meteorology and cloud images, for example, how much difference it could be for the correct LWP if choose 2017 for the null experiment instead of 2019? Some discussion of this uncertainty would help improve the robustness (and uncertainty range due to interannual variability of meteorology) of study and the new estimate of the corrected LWP adjustment.
2) It is nice that authors extensively discuss the new finding of this study compared against recent studies from satellite observations, e.g., (Manshausen et al., 2023; Manshausen et al., 2022); (Toll et al., 2017; Toll et al., 2019). But, it would also be nice to see some discussion of this new finding compared against modelling studies. For example, how does the corrected LWP compared against global climate models, and some high resolution simulations. On particular, (Glassmeier et al., 2021) used cloud-resolving simulation to also show that LWP adjustment could be overestimated by ship-track studies. Do you study confirmed their simulation with observational evidence, and how much agreement there is between your observation and their cloud-resolving simulation? Furthermore, in line-270 (ish), you find that LWP shows very little evolution over time, while Glassmeier et al. discuss that LWP adjustment would develop along the time (see their Fig.3). Does your new finding suggest that the cloud-resolving simulation also need significant improvement in the underlying fundamental processes?
3) It would be also nice to see some discussion of this new finding aligning with some recent satellite observation studies over stratocumulus and trade cumulus regimes, which is the focus of this study. For example, although (Malavelle et al., 2017) showed a negligible LWP adjustment using an Icelandic volcanic plume covering diverse cloud regimes, recently (Chen et al., 2024) used a Hawaii volcanic natural experiment over a trade cumulus regime and showed a slight but consistent decrease of LWP in various meteorological conditions.
4) I can understand that the length of ship-track could be seen as a time-axis for ACI developing. However, I think this could only be true when the shipping routes are near-perpendicular to the prevailing wind. What about if they are near-parallel to each other, then the ACI signal could be a mixture of different time-scales? Would this influence your analysis, e.g. Fig.2 and Fig.5?
5) Details of ERA5 data should be provided in Method. Would spatial resolution of ERA5, if I am correct would be around 25km, influence your analysis, give that your defined ship-track is about 10km central region?
Editorial suggestions:
1) Removal the paragraph at line-160 (ish). Because it confused me when you show it here before explicitly introduce null experiment and tell about why, also you will talk about this point in the paragraph line-180, which is clearer.
2) Line 398: calling à cooling
References:
Chen, Y., Haywood, J., Wang, Y., Malavelle, F., Jordan, G., Peace, A., Partridge, D. G., Cho, N., Oreopoulos, L., Grosvenor, D., Field, P., Allan, R. P., and Lohmann, U.: Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01427-z, 2024.
Glassmeier, F., Hoffmann, F., Johnson, J. S., Yamaguchi, T., Carslaw, K. S., and Feingold, G.: Aerosol-cloud-climate cooling overestimated by ship-track data, Science, 371, 485-489, 10.1126/science.abd3980, 2021.
Malavelle, F. F., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Gettelman, A., Clarisse, L., Bauduin, S., Allan, R. P., Karset, I. H. H., Kristjánsson, J. E., Oreopoulos, L., Cho, N., Lee, D., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Grosvenor, D. P., Carslaw, K. S., Dhomse, S., Mann, G. W., Schmidt, A., Coe, H., Hartley, M. E., Dalvi, M., Hill, A. A., Johnson, B. T., Johnson, C. E., Knight, J. R., O’Connor, F. M., Partridge, D. G., Stier, P., Myhre, G., Platnick, S., Stephens, G. L., Takahashi, H., and Thordarson, T.: Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions, Nature, 546, 485-491, 10.1038/nature22974, 2017.
Manshausen, P., Watson-Parris, D., Christensen, M. W., Jalkanen, J.-P., and Stier, P.: Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol, Nature, 610, 101-106, 10.1038/s41586-022-05122-0, 2022.
Manshausen, P., Watson-Parris, D., Christensen, M. W., Jalkanen, J. P., and Stier, P.: Rapid saturation of cloud water adjustments to shipping emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12545-12555, 10.5194/acp-23-12545-2023, 2023.
Toll, V., Christensen, M., Gassó, S., and Bellouin, N.: Volcano and Ship Tracks Indicate Excessive Aerosol-Induced Cloud Water Increases in a Climate Model, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 12,492-412,500, 10.1002/2017gl075280, 2017.
Toll, V., Christensen, M., Quaas, J., and Bellouin, N.: Weak average liquid-cloud-water response to anthropogenic aerosols, Nature, 572, 51-55, 10.1038/s41586-019-1423-9, 2019.