Articles | Volume 24, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13025-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13025-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 26 Nov 2024
| 26 Nov 2024
Analysis of the cloud fraction adjustment to aerosols and its dependence on meteorological controls using explainable machine learning
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Karlsruhe, Germany
Hendrik Andersen
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Karlsruhe, Germany
Jan Cermak
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Karlsruhe, Germany
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Sarah Wilson Kemsley, Paulo Ceppi, Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Philip Stier, and Peer Nowack
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8295–8316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8295-2024, 2024
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Aiming to inform parameter selection for future observational constraint analyses, we incorporate five candidate meteorological drivers specifically targeting high clouds into a cloud controlling factor framework within a range of spatial domain sizes. We find a discrepancy between optimal domain size for predicting locally and globally aggregated cloud radiative anomalies and identify upper-tropospheric static stability as an important high-cloud controlling factor.
Alexandre Mass, Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Paola Formenti, Eva Pauli, and Julian Quinting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1627, 2024
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This study investigates the interaction between smoke aerosols and fog and low clouds (FLCs) in the Namib desert between June and October. Here, a satellite-based dataset of FLCs, reanalysis data and machine learning are used to systematically analyze FLCs persistence under different aerosol loadings. Aerosol plumes are shown to modify local thermodynamics which increases FLC persistence. But fully disentangling aerosol effects from meteorological ones remains a challenge.
Babak Jahani, Steffen Karalus, Julia Fuchs, Tobias Zech, Marina Zara, and Jan Cermak
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2885, 2024
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Fog and low stratus (FLS) are both persistent clouds close to the Earth’s surface. In the context of photovoltaic power production, FLS is particularly important, as FLS, impact large regions simultaneously, making regional power grid balancing hard. This study introduces a new machine leanring based algorithm developed for the MSG geostationary satellites that can provide a coherent and detailed view of FLS development over large areas over the 24 H day cycle.
Karine Desboeufs, Paola Formenti, Raquel Torres-Sánchez, Kerstin Schepanski, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Stefanie Feuerstein, Benoit Laurent, Danitza Klopper, Andreas Namwoonde, Mathieu Cazaunau, Servanne Chevaillier, Anaïs Feron, Cécile Mirande-Bret, Sylvain Triquet, and Stuart J. Piketh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1525–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1525-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the fractional solubility of iron (Fe) in dust particles along the coast of Namibia, a critical region for the atmospheric Fe supply of the South Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest a possible two-way interplay whereby marine biogenic emissions from the coastal marine ecosystems into the atmosphere would increase the solubility of Fe-bearing dust by photo-reduction processes. The subsequent deposition of soluble Fe could act to further enhance marine biogenic emissions.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Alyson Douglas, Timothy A. Myers, Peer Nowack, Philip Stier, Casey J. Wall, and Sarah Wilson Kemsley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10775–10794, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10775-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10775-2023, 2023
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This study uses an observation-based cloud-controlling factor framework to study near-global sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to a large number of meteorological and aerosol controls. We present near-global sensitivity patterns to selected thermodynamic, dynamic, and aerosol factors and discuss the physical mechanisms underlying the derived sensitivities. Our study hopes to guide future analyses aimed at constraining cloud feedbacks and aerosol–cloud interactions.
Julia Fuchs, Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Eva Pauli, and Rob Roebeling
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4257–4270, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4257-2022, 2022
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Two cloud-masking approaches, a local and a regional approach, using high-resolution satellite data are developed and validated for the region of Paris to improve applicability for analyses of urban effects on low clouds. We found that cloud masks obtained from the regional approach are more appropriate for the high-resolution analysis of locally induced cloud processes. Its applicability is tested for the analysis of typical fog conditions over different surface types.
Babak Jahani, Hendrik Andersen, Josep Calbó, Josep-Abel González, and Jan Cermak
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1483–1494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1483-2022, 2022
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The change in the state of sky from cloudy to cloudless (or vice versa) comprises an additional phase called
transition zonewith characteristics laying between those of aerosols and clouds. This study presents an approach for the quantification of the broadband longwave radiative effects of the cloud–aerosol transition zone at the top of the atmosphere during daytime over the ocean based on satellite observations and radiative transfer simulations.
Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
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Trace gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) are released from a variety of point sources around the globe. Examples include volcanoes, industrial chimneys, forest fires, and ship stacks. These sources provide opportunistic experiments with which to quantify the role of aerosols in modifying cloud properties. We review the current state of understanding on the influence of aerosol on climate built from the wide range of natural and anthropogenic laboratories investigated in recent decades.
Roland Stirnberg, Jan Cermak, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, Hendrik Andersen, Julia Fuchs, Miae Kim, Jean-Eudes Petit, and Olivier Favez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3919-2021, 2021
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Air pollution endangers human health and poses a problem particularly in densely populated areas. Here, an explainable machine learning approach is used to analyse periods of high particle concentrations for a suburban site southwest of Paris to better understand its atmospheric drivers. Air pollution is particularly excaberated by low temperatures and low mixed layer heights, but processes vary substantially between and within seasons.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Peter Knippertz, Marco Gaetani, Julian Quinting, Sebastian Sippel, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3415–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, 2020
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Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are an essential but poorly understood element of Namib regional climate. Here, a satellite-based data set of FLCs in central Namib, reanalysis data, and back trajectories are used to systematically analyze conditions when FLCs occur. Synoptic-scale mechanisms are identified that influence the formation of FLCs and the onshore advection of marine boundary-layer air masses. The findings lead to a new conceptual model of mechanisms that drive FLC variability in the Namib.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Irina Solodovnik, Luca Lelli, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4383–4392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4383-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4383-2019, 2019
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Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are an essential but poorly understood component of Namib-region climate. This study uses observations from multiple satellite platforms and ground-based measurements to coherently characterize Namib-region FLC patterns. Findings concerning the seasonal cycle of the vertical structure and the diurnal cycle of FLCs lead to a new conceptual model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of FLCs in the Namib and help to improve the understanding of underlying processes.
Karmen Babić, Bianca Adler, Norbert Kalthoff, Hendrik Andersen, Cheikh Dione, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, and Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1281–1299, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1281-2019, 2019
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The first detailed observational analysis of the complete diurnal cycle of low-level clouds (LLC) and associated atmospheric processes over southern West Africa is performed using the data gathered within the DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud-Interactions in West Africa) ground-based campaign. We find cooling related to the horizontal advection, which occurs in connection with the inflow of cool maritime air mass and a prominent low-level jet, to have the dominant role in LLC formation.
Matthias Wiegner, Ina Mattis, Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Juan Antonio Bravo-Aranda, Yann Poltera, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Ulrich Görsdorf, Ronny Leinweber, Josef Gasteiger, Martial Haeffelin, Frank Wagner, Jan Cermak, Katerina Komínková, Mike Brettle, Christoph Münkel, and Kornelia Pönitz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 471–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-471-2019, 2019
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Many ceilometers are influenced by water vapor absorption in the spectral range around 910 nm. Thus, a correction is required to retrieve aerosol optical properties. Validation of this correction scheme was performed in the framework of CeiLinEx2015 for several ceilometers with good agreement for Vaisala's CL51 ceilometer. For future applications we recommend monitoring the emitted wavelength and providing
darkmeasurements on a regular basis to be able to correct for signal artifacts.
Bianca Adler, Karmen Babić, Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Cheikh Dione, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, and Hendrik Andersen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 663–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-663-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-663-2019, 2019
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This study deals with nocturnal stratiform low-level clouds that frequently form in the atmospheric boundary layer over southern West Africa. We use observational data from 11 nights to characterize the clouds and intranight variability of boundary layer conditions as well as to assess the physical processes relevant for cloud formation. We find that cooling is crucial to reach saturation and a large part of the cooling is related to horizontal advection of cool air from the Gulf of Guinea.
Julia Fuchs, Jan Cermak, and Hendrik Andersen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16537–16552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16537-2018, 2018
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This study separates the influence of aerosol on cloud properties in the southeast Atlantic region from meteorological conditions in the biomass-burning season. Machine learning is used to link 8-day-averaged satellite and reanalysis data sets. Distinct regimes of aerosol–cloud interactions are identified in the subregions of the southeast Atlantic based on the obtained sensitivities.
Hendrik Andersen and Jan Cermak
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5461–5470, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5461-2018, 2018
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Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are a valuable source of water for many ecosystems in the Namib. This study presents the first fully diurnal satellite detection of FLCs, revealing the spatial and temporal patterns in the Namib. A validation is conducted against station measurements in the central Namib and shows a high overall accuracy. The average timing and persistence of FLCs seem to depend on the distance to the coast, suggesting that the region is dominated by advection-driven FLCs.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Reto Knutti, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9535–9546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9535-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9535-2017, 2017
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Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to contribute large uncertainties to our climate system understanding. In this study, we use near-global satellite and reanalysis data sets to predict marine liquid-water clouds by means of artificial neural networks. We show that on the system scale, lower-tropospheric stability and boundary layer height are the main determinants of liquid-water clouds. Aerosols show the expected impact on clouds but are less relevant than some meteorological factors.
N. Schaller, J. Cermak, M. Wild, and R. Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 253–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-253-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-253-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Climate and Earth System | Research Activity: Machine Learning | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective
Peer Nowack and Duncan Watson-Parris
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1636, 2024
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In our Opinion article, we review uncertainties in global climate change projections and current methods using Earth observations to constrain them, which is crucial for climate risk assessments and for informing society. We then discuss how machine learning can advance the field, discussing recent work that provides potentially stronger and more robust links between observed data and future climate projections. We further discuss challenges of applying machine learning to climate science.
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Short summary
We present a near-global observation-based explainable machine learning framework to quantify the response of cloud fraction (CLF) of marine low clouds to cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), accounting for the covariations with meteorological factors. This approach provides a novel data-driven method to analyse the CLF adjustment by assessing the CLF sensitivity to Nd and numerous meteorological factors as well as the dependence of the Nd–CLF sensitivity on the meteorological conditions.
We present a near-global observation-based explainable machine learning framework to quantify...
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