The authors have worked hard to improve the manuscripts and addressed many of my previous concerns. However, some inconsistencies remain in the text and some fairly major changes are still necessary before this article can be accepted for publication.
I have not checked the ms beyond L270 as my comments are largely repetitive: The point of the G6 simulations is not whether they arrive at a “better” future than SSP5-8.5, a better future would be SSP1.19. Rather the point is whether using SAI to hold temperatures in line with SSP2-45 will have any other unforeseen consequences. Thus all results comparing back to SSP5-85 need to be removed, and statistical significance tests should be between SSP2-45 and G6 simulations. Please revise the remainder of the manuscript to reflect this.
At a general level please ensure you choose either precipitation or rainfall and stick with that terminology. Similarly for “global warming” “anthropogenic global warming” “warming at the global scale”.
I remain unconvinced about the need to present the comparison with APHRODITE data. Your analysis centres around extreme precipitation, for which the models are not appropriate as they overestimate the maximum intensity. Furthermore, you do not (and do not need to!) bias correct the results; and I do not see where else the comparison to observations is used (not line 230-255 as stated in your response). You could instead simply state that the model has been effectively evaluated for adequacy elsewhere citing relevant papers (including your own paper Liang and Haywood 2023!). If you really wish to keep it, I suggest putting a summary of the analysis as an Appendix.
The presentation of the results is still confusing. In all cases you present changes and statistical significance with respect to the control period, but state that SAI is approximately successful. I recommend breaking this up to illustrate both the changes with respect to the control period, and the differences at the end of the century from SSP2-45. Discuss the results with respect to these differences from SSP2-4.5 as that is the target. As the pattern of changes is largely the same for all indices, you don’t need to show the results for the changes relative to control, but could explain that the patterns are similar to those seen in other indices and cite other literature for UKESM/CMIP6 and focus on the effects of SAI.
L24 G6sulfur is
L26 delete “, under future simulations (SSP 5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5),”
L28-29 As stated for the previous version of the ms, this is not appropriate and should be reframed as matching the target FOR THIS MODEL only similar to L31
L30-31 These sentences don’t make sense
L34 Should really highlight that although only one model, small ensemble etc., the hydrological effects are not as beneficial as those indicated for temperature and more research recommended. Leave statements about deployment to policy people.
L43 insert space after “2020,”
L43-52 You could still reduce the level of historical events as the focus of the article is not on these impacts. e.g. start a new paragraph at “Extreme precipitation…” then
“For example severe flooding affected southern, eastern and parts of central China in the summer of 2020 (Jia et al 2020); extremely intense hourly and daily precipitation also occurred over Zhengzhou (southeast? China) in 2021 (Zhao et al, Dong et al). Further extreme precipitation occurred over southern China in 2022, together with flooding in the west of the Yangtze; and finally record-breaking precipitation occurred in 2023 across at least 15 cities and provinces in north-eastern China” Could cite the WMO State of the Climate report here to back up the record-breaker.
WMO (2023) Provisional State of the Climate in 2023. World Meteorological Organization. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3063 (Accessed: 15 February 2024).
L50 Remove “Although not statistically robust” and “might tentatively”
Dunn et al. (2020) and de Vries et al. (2023) show a robust signal in Rx1day globally.
De Vries, I.E. et al. (2023) ‘Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change’, Earth System Dynamics, 14(1), pp. 81–100. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023.
Dunn, R.J.H. et al. (2020) ‘Development of an Updated Global Land In Situ‐Based Data Set of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: HadEX3’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(16). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032263.
L61 Change ‘forecasted’ to ‘projected’
L63 Again this is a policy statement best left to policy makers. The projections show an urgent need to mitigate (I.e. reduce carbon emissions) to avoid worse changes, and to adapt. However, as you go on, some have suggested that climate interventions may also support those actions to further abate the impacts from climate change.
L65 Technically this should be a reference to COP 15, UNFCCC rather than the IPCC special report.
L73-75 Move “Numerous studies….” To L69 before G6Sulfur - to give better background on the idea of a “natural analogue” in the form of volcanoes.
L71 Zarnetske also points out the negative consequences; it is worth making more of that to make this paper a balanced contribution.
L75 New paragraph for “The latest phase of …”
L79 Description of model specifics (I.e. SSP) belongs in the Methods section.
L83 rephrase “Previous studies from a range of modeling experiments innate that SAI will exert….”
L84 This is too generalised. Instead “reduce mean surface air temperature and may reduce global mean precipitation”
Simpson et al. 2019 shows that global mean precipitation is reduced, but locally it may increase. Similarly Pinto et al. (2020) shows that the precipitation responses are not the same across Africa.
L86 change to “when stratospheric sulfur is used to moderate global mean temperatures”
L87 Remove “However, as suggested by some studies,” and change to “can effectively moderate global mean temperature increases, it cannot…”
L92 geoengineering is redundant here.
L93 maybe differences instead of changes? And “between scenarios of projected warming alone, and warming with solar geoengineering”
L98 This should be 2100?
L117 remove “Tier 1” this is confusing.
L125 Define the control period here instead of calling it “Historical”.
L131 maybe “was created from spatial interpolation of gauge…”
L132 change “has been a” to “is a”
L140 include the references that are also in the Table caption here.
L162-190 This section does not describe changes and so doesn’t go with the title. It would be better removed altogether as stated above.
L192 Should be “In all four simulations, most of the region is..”
L193-195 See my general comment and consider removing these lines.
L205 some areas of southern China seem wetter than SSP2-45, and drier in the west for G6. See general comment. Even if statistically significant this still doesn’t categorically show that SAI “effectively mitigates the increase” it demonstrates that it works for this set up in this model.
L212 space between R95p,for
L220 Should be SSP5-8.5
L223 Why is this noteworthy? It seems to be the same location in all four panels.
L227 Presumably the combination of water vapour and south-westerly winds brings more frequent ARs as you demonstrated?
L228 Spelling check all UK or all US throughout.
L231 is this a statistically significant decrease with respect to SSP5-8.5?
L238-252 Figure 5 This would make more sense with SSP2-4.5 - G6sulfur, SSP2-45 - G6solar, and G6sulfur-G6solar because the description is about how areas are wetter than SSP2-45; and your reference point is whether the difference between SSP-2.45 and G6 are statistically distinguishable and what the consequences might be. Update the narrative to match the figures as suggested.
L248 Change “effectively mitigates”
Table 3 as noted above, more compelling would be the difference in results between SSP2-4.5 and G6. Can SAI hold the space without having other consequences?
L270 You still have not included in the article how the CDFs were established for each region!
L286 Four G6 scenarios? |