Stratospherically induced  circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the no-Montreal-Protocol scenario

Zilker, Franziska; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Chiodo, Gabriel; Friedel, Marina; Egorova, Tatiana; Rozanov, Eugene; Sedlacek, Jan; Seeber, Svenja; Peter, Thomas

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 20

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13387-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 20

Research article

|

24 Oct 2023

Research article |

| 24 Oct 2023

Stratospherically induced circulation changes under the extreme conditions of the no-Montreal-Protocol scenario

Franziska Zilker, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Tatiana Egorova, Eugene Rozanov, Jan Sedlacek, Svenja Seeber, and Thomas Peter

Data sets

Montreal Protocol's impact on the ozone layer and climate Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, Timofei Sukhodolov, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Franziska Zilker, and Eugene Rozanov https://zenodo.org/record/7234665#.Y1aP-UxBxaQ

Model code and software

Atmosphere-Ocean-Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Model SOCOLv4.0 code Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Jan Sedlacek, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4570622

Short summary

The Montreal Protocol (MP) has successfully reduced the Antarctic ozone hole by banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy the ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) that would have strengthened global warming. In this study, we investigate the surface weather and climate in a world without the MP at the end of the 21st century, disentangling ozone-mediated and GHG impacts of CFCs. Overall, we avoided 1.7 K global surface warming and a poleward shift in storm tracks.