Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
17 Jun 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 17 Jun 2022
| 17 Jun 2022
The Sun's role in decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24118 Kiel, Germany
SINTEF Ocean AS, 7010 Trondheim, Norway
DMI – Danish Meteorological Institute, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Wenjuan Huo
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Katja Matthes
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Kunihiko Kodera
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
RIKEN Nishina Center for Accelerator-Based Science, Wako, Saitama
351-0198, Japan
Tim Kruschke
SMHI – Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute – Rossby
Centre, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
now at: Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), 20359 Hamburg, Germany
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations T. Spiegl et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023
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- Predicting sunspot number from topological features in spectral images I: Machine learning approach D. Sierra-Porta et al. 10.1016/j.ascom.2024.100857
- Atlantic decadal-to-bidecadal variability in a version of the Kiel Climate Model J. Sun et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06821-8
- A climate index collection based on model data M. Landt-Hayen et al. 10.1017/eds.2023.5
- Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability B. Dong et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
- Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations W. Huo et al. 10.5194/acp-25-2589-2025
- Preface to Monitoring the Earth Radiation Budget and Its Implication to Climate Simulations: Recent Advances and Discussions J. Montillet et al. 10.1029/2023JD040075
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- Solar Signature in Climate Indices C. Mares et al. 10.3390/atmos13111898
- Future Climate Under CMIP6 Solar Activity Scenarios J. Sedlacek et al. 10.1029/2022EA002783
- Norway spruce forest management in the Czech Republic is linked to the solar cycle under conditions of climate change – from tree rings to salvage harvesting V. Šimůnek et al. 10.1051/swsc/2024030
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13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations T. Spiegl et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023
- Modulation of the solar activity on the connection between the NAO and the tropical pacific SST variability W. Huo et al. 10.3389/feart.2023.1147582
- Predicting sunspot number from topological features in spectral images I: Machine learning approach D. Sierra-Porta et al. 10.1016/j.ascom.2024.100857
- Atlantic decadal-to-bidecadal variability in a version of the Kiel Climate Model J. Sun et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06821-8
- A climate index collection based on model data M. Landt-Hayen et al. 10.1017/eds.2023.5
- Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability B. Dong et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
- Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations W. Huo et al. 10.5194/acp-25-2589-2025
- Preface to Monitoring the Earth Radiation Budget and Its Implication to Climate Simulations: Recent Advances and Discussions J. Montillet et al. 10.1029/2023JD040075
- The possible impact of solar activity on rainfall in Nepal: A case study S. Gautam et al. 10.1016/j.asr.2024.05.075
- Solar Signature in Climate Indices C. Mares et al. 10.3390/atmos13111898
- Future Climate Under CMIP6 Solar Activity Scenarios J. Sedlacek et al. 10.1029/2022EA002783
- Norway spruce forest management in the Czech Republic is linked to the solar cycle under conditions of climate change – from tree rings to salvage harvesting V. Šimůnek et al. 10.1051/swsc/2024030
- Triskeles and Symmetries of Mean Global Sea-Level Pressure F. Lopes et al. 10.3390/atmos13091354
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 29 Jul 2025
Executive editor
This paper by Drews et al. reports model simulations of the effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmospheric circulation and hence on year-to-year variations in weather patterns, . The physics of the effect of the solar cycle is complex, but one important mechanism is believed to be via the variation in short-wave radiation, which perturbs the ozone distribution in the upper stratosphere. The key development in this study is a good model representation of chemistry, radiation and dynamics and their interactions to enable the dynamical feedback processes, which potentially communicate the direct physical effects of the solar cycle to the lower part of the atmosphere, to be adequately simulated. An important aspect of the paper is that the authors exploit an ensemble of simulations that make it possible to distinguish a signal due to solar-cycle effects from natural weather variability. The results convincingly show a solar cycle effect, over the North Atlantic in particular, where variations in the circulation have important implications for the weather experienced in Europe. This is particularly the case in the current period (since 1950 or so) when the 11-year solar variation is strong relative to the entire historical record (starting in about 1850). The results of this paper suggest that including solar cycle effects in models used for decadal climate predictions can provide worthwhile improvements in the skill of such predictions.
This paper by Drews et al. reports model simulations of the effect of the 11-year solar cycle on...
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large...
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