The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses

Karagodin-Doyennel, Arseniy; Rozanov, Eugene; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Egorova, Tatiana; Sedlacek, Jan; Ball, William; Peter, Thomas

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 23

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 23

Research article

|

05 Dec 2022

Research article |

| 05 Dec 2022

The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, William Ball, and Thomas Peter

Data sets

Zonal mean data of the SOCOLv4 reference experiment (1980–2018) (1.0) A. Karagodin-Doyennel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6885544

BASIC Composite Ozone Time-Series Data J. Alsing and W. Ball https://doi.org/10.17632/2mgx2xzzpk.3

Extended and refined multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone for the period 1970–2012 (https://www.temis.nl/protocols/O3global.php) R. J. van der A, M. A. F. Allaart, and H. J. Eskes https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3021-2015

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2) R. Gelaro, W. McCarty, M. J. Suárez, R. Todling, A. Molod, L. Takacs, C. A. Randles, A. Darmenov, M. G. Bosilovich, R. Reichle, K. Wargan, L. Coy, R. Cullather, C. Draper, S. Akella, V. Buchard, A. Conaty, A. M. da Silva, W. Gu, G.-K. Kim, R. Koster, R. Lucchesi, D. Merkova, J. E. Nielsen, G. Partyka, S. Pawson, W. Putman, M. Rienecker, S. D. Schubert, M. Sienkiewicz, and B. Zhao https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1

The ERA5 global reanalysis (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5&type=dataset) H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, S. Abdalla, X. Abellan, G. Balsamo, P. Bechtold, G. Biavati, J. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, G. Chiara, P. Dahlgren, D. Dee, M. Diamantakis, R. Dragani, J. Flemming, R. Forbes, M. Fuentes, A. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. Healy, R. J. Hogan, E. Hólm, M. Janisková, S. Keeley, P. Laloyaux, P. Lopez, C. Lupu, G. Radnoti, P. Rosnay, I. Rozum, F. Vamborg, S. Villaume, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

The monthly mean QBO time series at Singapore M. Kunze https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html

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Applying the dynamic linear model, we confirm near-global ozone recovery (55°N–55°S) in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the troposphere. We also show that modern chemistry–climate models (CCMs) like SOCOLv4 may reproduce the observed trend distribution of lower stratospheric ozone, despite exhibiting a lower magnitude and statistical significance. The obtained ozone trend pattern in SOCOLv4 is generally consistent with observations and reanalysis datasets.