Articles | Volume 22, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 02 Nov 2022
| 02 Nov 2022
Evaluation and bias correction of probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Tianfeng Chai
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Cooperative Institute for Satellite and Earth System Studies (CISESS), University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Binyu Wang
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, USA
IM Systems Group, Rockville, MD, USA
Allison Ring
Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Barbara Stunder
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Christopher P. Loughner
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Michael Pavolonis
NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS), Madison, WI, USA
Justin Sieglaff
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW/CIMSS), Madison, WI, USA
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12907–12933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12907-2023, 2023
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The SO2 emissions of three power plants are estimated using aircraft observations and an ensemble of HYSPLIT dispersion simulations with different plume rise parameters. The emission estimates using the runs with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) and the runs with the best correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed mixing ratios both agree well with the Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) data. The RMSE-based plume rise appears to be more reasonable.
Wayne M. Angevine, Jeff Peischl, Alice Crawford, Christopher P. Loughner, Ilana B. Pollack, and Chelsea R. Thompson
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Emissions of air pollutants must be known for a wide variety of applications. Different methods of estimating emissions often disagree substantially. In this study, we apply standard methods to a well-known source, a power plant. We explore the uncertainty implied by the different answers that come from the different methods, different samples taken over several years, and different pollutants. We find that the overall uncertainty of emissions estimates is about 30 %.
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An inverse system based on the HYSPLIT dispersion model has been built to estimate volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations. Using MODIS retrievals from the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds, three options for matching model results to satellite mass loadings are tested. They all show decent skill. It is also found that simultaneously assimilating observations at different times produces better hindcasts than only assimilating the most recent observations.
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The SO2 emissions of three power plants are estimated using aircraft observations and an ensemble of HYSPLIT dispersion simulations with different plume rise parameters. The emission estimates using the runs with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) and the runs with the best correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed mixing ratios both agree well with the Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) data. The RMSE-based plume rise appears to be more reasonable.
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Hyun Cheol Kim, Tianfeng Chai, Ariel Stein, and Shobha Kondragunta
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Smoke forecasts have been challenged by high uncertainty in fire emission estimates. We develop an inverse modeling system, the HYSPLIT-based Emissions Inverse Modeling System for wildfires, that estimates wildfire emissions from the transport and dispersion of smoke plumes as measured by satellite observations. Using NOAA HYSPLIT and GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP), the system resolves smoke source strength as a function of time and vertical level and outperforms current operational system.
Shunliu Zhao, Matthew G. Russell, Amir Hakami, Shannon L. Capps, Matthew D. Turner, Daven K. Henze, Peter B. Percell, Jaroslav Resler, Huizhong Shen, Armistead G. Russell, Athanasios Nenes, Amanda J. Pappin, Sergey L. Napelenok, Jesse O. Bash, Kathleen M. Fahey, Gregory R. Carmichael, Charles O. Stanier, and Tianfeng Chai
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In order to evaluate the data assimilation tools for regional real-time PM2.5 forecasts, we applied a 3D-Var assimilation tool to adjust the aerosol initial condition by assimilating satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth and surface PM2.5 observations for a regional air quality model, which is compared to another assimilation method, optimal interpolation. We discuss the pros and cons of these two assimilation methods based on the comparison of their 1-month four-cycles-per-day runs.
Daniel L. Goldberg, Lok N. Lamsal, Christopher P. Loughner, William H. Swartz, Zifeng Lu, and David G. Streets
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An inverse system based on the HYSPLIT dispersion model has been built to estimate volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations. Using MODIS retrievals from the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds, three options for matching model results to satellite mass loadings are tested. They all show decent skill. It is also found that simultaneously assimilating observations at different times produces better hindcasts than only assimilating the most recent observations.
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Subject: Dynamics | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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James M. Salter, Helen N. Webster, and Cameron Saint
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6251–6274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6251-2024, 2024
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Models are used to make forecasts of volcanic ash dispersion during eruptions. These models have unknown inputs relating to the eruption itself, physical processes, and meteorological conditions. We use statistical models to predict the output of the expensive physical model and show we can account for the effects of the different inputs. We compare the model to real-world observations and show that accounting for all sources of uncertainty may lead to different conclusions about the inputs.
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Based on long-term observational, reanalysis, and numerical model simulation datasets from 1901 through 2014, this study shows that precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone featured prominent interdecadal changes, with dry summers during the periods preceding 1927, 1939–1945, 1968–1982, and 1998–2010 and wet summers during 1928–1938, 1946–1967, and 2011 onwards. The Indian Ocean basin mode is an important oceanic modulator responsible for its interdecadal variations.
Jordi Massagué, Eduardo Torre-Pascual, Cristina Carnerero, Miguel Escudero, Andrés Alastuey, Marco Pandolfi, Xavier Querol, and Gotzon Gangoiti
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Weiming Ma, Hailong Wang, Gang Chen, Yun Qian, Ian Baxter, Yiling Huo, and Mark W. Seefeldt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4451–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024, 2024
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Extreme warming events with surface temperature going above 0°C can occur in the high-Arctic winter. Although reanalysis data show that these events were short-lived and occurred rarely during 1980–2021, they have become more frequent, stronger, and longer lasting latterly. A dipole pattern, comprising high- and low-pressure systems, is found to be the key in driving them. These findings have implications for the recent changes in sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem over the Arctic.
Gaoyun Wang, Rong Fu, Yizhou Zhuang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Joseph A. Santanello, Guiling Wang, Kun Yang, and Kaighin McColl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3857–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the influence of lower-tropospheric humidity on land–atmosphere coupling (LAC) during warm seasons in the US Southern Great Plains. Using radiosonde data and a buoyancy model, we find that elevated LT humidity is crucial for generating afternoon precipitation events under dry soil conditions not accounted for by conventional LAC indices. This underscores the importance of considering LT humidity in understanding LAC over dry soil during droughts in the SGP.
Robert Hanfland, Dominik Brunner, Christiane Voigt, Alina Fiehn, Anke Roiger, and Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2511–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, 2024
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To show that the three-dimensional dispersion of plumes simulated by the Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model within the planetary boundary layer agrees with real plumes, we identify the most important input parameters and analyse the turbulence properties of five different turbulence models in very unstable stratification conditions using their deviation from the well-mixed state. Simulations show that one model agrees slightly better in unstable stratification conditions.
Bangjun Cao, Yaping Shao, Xianyu Yang, Xin Yin, and Shaofeng Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 275–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-275-2024, 2024
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Our novel scheme enhances large-eddy simulations (LESs) for atmosphere–land interactions. It couples LES subgrid closure with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), overcoming MOST's limitations. Validated over diverse land surfaces, our approach outperforms existing methods, aligning well with field measurements. Robustness is demonstrated across varying model resolutions. MOST's influence strengthens with decreasing grid spacing, particularly for sensible heat flux.
Gaëlle de Coëtlogon, Adrien Deroubaix, Cyrille Flamant, Laurent Menut, and Marco Gaetani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15507–15521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, 2023
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Using a numerical atmospheric model, we found that cooling sea surface temperatures along the southern coast of West Africa in July cause the “little dry season”. This effect reduces humidity and pollutant transport inland, potentially enhancing West Africa's synoptic and seasonal forecasting.
Dongqi Lin, Marwan Katurji, Laura E. Revell, Basit Khan, and Andrew Sturman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14451–14479, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14451-2023, 2023
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Accurate fog forecasting is difficult in a complex environment. Spatial variations in soil moisture could impact fog. Here, we carried out fog simulations with spatially different soil moisture in complex topography. The soil moisture was calculated using satellite observations. The results show that the spatial variations in soil moisture do not have a significant impact on where fog occurs but do impact how long fog lasts. This finding could improve fog forecasts in the future.
Shuqi Yan, Hongbin Wang, Xiaohui Liu, Fan Zu, and Duanyang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13987–14002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13987-2023, 2023
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In this study, we quantitatively study the effect of the boundary layer low-level jet (BLLJ) on fast fog spatial propagation; i.e., the fog area expands very fast along a certain direction. The wind speed (10 m s−1) and direction (southeast) of the BLLJ core are consistent with fog propagation (9.6 m s−1). The BLLJ-induced temperature and moisture advections are possible reasons for fast fog propagation. The propagation speed would decrease by 6.4 m s−1 if these advections were turned off.
Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13883–13909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, 2023
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This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
Andrew R. Jones, Susan J. Leadbetter, and Matthew C. Hort
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12477–12503, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023, 2023
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The paper explores spread and calibration properties of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts for hypothetical release events. Real-time forecasts from an ensemble weather prediction system were used to generate an ensemble of dispersion predictions and assessed against simulations produced using analysis meteorology. Results demonstrate good performance overall but highlight more skilful predictions for material released in the upper air compared with releases near the surface.
Jason A. Otkin, Lee M. Cronce, Jonathan L. Case, R. Bradley Pierce, Monica Harkey, Allen Lenzen, David S. Henderson, Zac Adelman, Tsengel Nergui, and Christopher R. Hain
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7935–7954, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023, 2023
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We performed model simulations to assess the impact of different parameterization schemes, surface initialization datasets, and analysis nudging on lower-tropospheric conditions near Lake Michigan. Simulations were run with high-resolution, real-time datasets depicting lake surface temperatures, green vegetation fraction, and soil moisture. The most accurate results were obtained when using high-resolution sea surface temperature and soil datasets to constrain the model simulations.
Mark T. Richardson, Brian H. Kahn, and Peter Kalmus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7699–7717, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7699-2023, 2023
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Convection over land often triggers hours after a satellite last passed overhead and measured the state of the atmosphere, and during those hours the atmosphere can change greatly. Here we show that it is possible to reconstruct most of those changes by using weather forecast winds to predict where warm and moist air parcels will travel. The results can be used to better predict where precipitation is likely to happen in the hours after satellite measurements.
Lars Hoffmann, Paul Konopka, Jan Clemens, and Bärbel Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7589–7609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7589-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric convection plays a key role in tracer transport in the troposphere. Global meteorological forecasts and reanalyses typically have a coarse spatiotemporal resolution that does not adequately resolve the dynamics, transport, and mixing of air associated with storm systems or deep convection. We discuss the application of the extreme convection parameterization in a Lagrangian transport model to improve simulations of tracer transport from the boundary layer into the free troposphere.
Angshuman Modak and Thorsten Mauritsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7535–7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023, 2023
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We provide an improved estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental temperature record including the corrections for the pattern effect. The improved estimate factors in the uncertainty caused by the underlying sea-surface temperature datasets used in the estimates of pattern effect. This together with the inter-model spread lifts the corresponding IPCC AR6 estimate to 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0], which is lower and better constrained than in past studies.
Xiaoyu Sun, Mathias Palm, Katrin Müller, Jonas Hachmeister, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7075–7090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7075-2023, 2023
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The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an active interhemispheric transport region contributing significantly to the global climate. A method to determine the chemical equator was developed by model simulations of a virtual passive tracer to analyze transport in the tropics, with a focus on the TWP region. We compare the chemical equator with tropical rain belts and wind fields and obtain a vertical pattern of interhemispheric transport processes which shows tilt structure in certain seasons.
Andrew E. Schuh and Andrew R. Jacobson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6285–6297, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023, 2023
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A comparison of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from two different atmospheric transport models showed large differences in predicted concentrations with significant space–time correlations. The vertical mixing of long-lived trace gases by convection was determined to be the main driver of these differences. The resulting uncertainty was deemed significant to the application of using atmospheric gradients of carbon dioxide to estimate surface fluxes of carbon dioxide.
Qike Yang, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaodan Hu, Zhiyuan Wang, Chun Qing, Tao Luo, Pengfei Wu, Xianmei Qian, and Yiming Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6339–6355, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6339-2023, 2023
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The AMPS-forecasted Richardson number was first comprehensively validated over the Antarctic continent. Some potential underlying reasons for the discrepancies between the forecasts and observations were analyzed. The underlying physical processes of triggering atmospheric turbulence in Antarctica were investigated. Our results suggest that the estimated Richardson number by the AMPS is reasonable and the turbulence conditions in Antarctica are well revealed.
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6065–6081, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6065-2023, 2023
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It is shown that the outflow from cumulonimbus clouds or thunderstorms in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in idealized high-resolution simulations (LESs) depends linearly on the net amount of latent heat released by the cloud for fixed geometry of the clouds. However, it is shown that, in more realistic situations, convective organization and aggregation (collecting mechanisms of cumulonimbus clouds) affect the amount of outflow non-linearly through non-idealized geometry.
Zixuan Jia, Carlos Ordóñez, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Steven T. Turnock, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2829–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2829-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the influence of the winter large-scale circulation on daily concentrations of PM2.5 and their sensitivity to emissions. The new proposed circulation index can effectively distinguish different levels of air pollution and explain changes in PM2.5 sensitivity to emissions from local and surrounding regions. We then project future changes in PM2.5 concentrations using this index and find an increase in PM2.5 concentrations over the region due to climate change.
Chao Lin, Yunyi Wang, Ryozo Ooka, Cédric Flageul, Youngseob Kim, Hideki Kikumoto, Zhizhao Wang, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1421–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1421-2023, 2023
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In this study, SSH-aerosol, a modular box model that simulates the evolution of gas, primary, and secondary aerosols, is coupled with the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, OpenFOAM and Code_Saturne. The transient dispersion of pollutants emitted from traffic in a street canyon of Greater Paris is simulated. The coupled model achieved better agreement in NO2 and PM10 with measurement data than the conventional CFD simulation which regards pollutants as passive scalars.
Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marja Bister, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 821–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, 2023
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Local winds in four valleys located in the Nepal Himalayas are studied by means of high-resolution meteorological modelling. Well-defined daytime up-valley winds are simulated in all of the valleys with some variation in the flow depth and strength among the valleys and their parts. Parts of the valleys with a steep valley floor inclination (2–5°) are associated with weaker and shallower daytime up-valley winds compared with the parts that have nearly flat valley floors (< 1°).
Edward Groot and Holger Tost
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-565-2023, 2023
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Thunderstorm systems play an important role in the dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere, and some of them form a well-organised line: squall lines. Simulations of such squall lines with very small initial perturbations are compared to a reference simulation. The evolution of perturbations and processes amplifying them are analysed. It is shown that the formation of new secondary thunderstorm cells (after the initial primary cells) directly ahead of the line affects the spread strongly.
Matthias Nützel, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Hella Garny, Patrick Jöckel, Laura L. Pan, and Mijeong Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15659–15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, 2022
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During the Asian summer monsoon season, a large high-pressure system is present at levels close to the tropopause above Asia. We analyse how air masses are transported from surface levels to this high-pressure system, which shows distinct features from the surrounding air masses. To this end, we employ multiannual data from two complementary models that allow us to analyse the climatology as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variability of these transport pathways.
Alessandro Carlo Maria Savazzi, Louise Nuijens, Irina Sandu, Geet George, and Peter Bechtold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13049–13066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13049-2022, 2022
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Winds are of great importance for the transport of energy and moisture in the atmosphere. In this study we use measurements from the EUREC4A field campaign and several model experiments to understand the wind bias in the forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We are able to link the model errors to heights above 2 km and to the representation of the diurnal cycle of winds: the model makes the winds too slow in the morning and too strong in the evening.
Ivo Neefjes, Roope Halonen, Hanna Vehkamäki, and Bernhard Reischl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11155–11172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11155-2022, 2022
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Collisions between ionic and dipolar molecules and clusters facilitate the formation of atmospheric aerosol particles, which affect global climate and air quality. We compared often-used classical approaches for calculating ion–dipole collision rates with robust atomistic computer simulations. While classical approaches work for simple ions and dipoles only, our modeling approach can also efficiently calculate reasonable collision properties for more complex systems.
Alice Maison, Cédric Flageul, Bertrand Carissimo, Yunyi Wang, Andrée Tuzet, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9369–9388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9369-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a parameterization of the tree crown effect on air flow and pollutant dispersion in a street network model used to simulate air quality at the street level. The new parameterization is built using a finer-scale model (computational fluid dynamics). The tree effect increases with the leaf area index and the crown volume fraction of the trees; the street horizontal velocity is reduced by up to 68 % and the vertical transfer into or out of the street by up to 23 %.
Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Cameron Saint, Andrew T. Prata, Helen N. Webster, and Roy G. Grainger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8529–8545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8529-2022, 2022
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In the event of a volcanic eruption, airlines need to make decisions about which routes are safe to operate and ensure that airborne aircraft land safely. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a statistical technique that best combines ash information from satellites and a suite of computer forecasts of ash concentration to provide a range of plausible estimates of how much volcanic ash emitted from a volcano is available to undergo long-range transport.
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Laurent Labbouz, Cyrille Flamant, and Alma Hodzic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8639–8658, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, 2022
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Ground-based, spaceborne and rare airborne observations of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) during the AEROCLO-sA field campaign in 2017 are complemented with convection-permitting simulations with online trajectories. The results show that the radiative effect of the BBA accelerates the southern African easterly jet and generates upward motions that transport the BBAs to higher altitudes and farther southwest.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
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Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Shipra Jain, Ruth M. Doherty, David Sexton, Steven Turnock, Chaofan Li, Zixuan Jia, Zongbo Shi, and Lin Pei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7443–7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022, 2022
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We provide a range of future projections of winter haze and clear conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using multiple simulations from a climate model for the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of haze conducive weather is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather is likely to decrease in future. The total number of hazy days for a given winter can be as much as ˜3.5 times higher than the number of clear days over the NCP.
Antonio Capponi, Natalie J. Harvey, Helen F. Dacre, Keith Beven, Cameron Saint, Cathie Wells, and Mike R. James
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6115–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022, 2022
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Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash in the atmosphere are hampered by uncertainties in parameters describing the characteristics of volcanic plumes. Uncertainty quantification is vital for making robust flight-planning decisions. We present a method using satellite data to refine a series of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts and quantify these uncertainties. We show how we can improve forecast accuracy and potentially reduce the regions of high risk of volcanic ash relevant to aviation.
Piyush Srivastava, Ian M. Brooks, John Prytherch, Dominic J. Salisbury, Andrew D. Elvidge, Ian A. Renfrew, and Margaret J. Yelland
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4763–4778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4763-2022, 2022
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The parameterization of surface turbulent fluxes over sea ice remains a weak point in weather forecast and climate models. Recent theoretical developments have introduced more extensive physics but these descriptions are poorly constrained due to a lack of observation data. Here we utilize a large dataset of measurements of turbulent fluxes over sea ice to tune the state-of-the-art parameterization of wind stress, and compare it with a previous scheme.
Yiqing Liu, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4721–4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, 2022
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Anthropogenic heat emission from buildings is important for atmospheric modelling in cities. The current building anthropogenic heat flux is simplified by building energy consumption. Our research proposes a novel approach to determine ‘real’ building anthropogenic heat emission from the changes in energy balance fluxes between occupied and unoccupied buildings. We hope to provide new insights into future parameterisations of building anthropogenic heat flux in urban climate models.
Lars Hoffmann and Reinhold Spang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4019–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4019-2022, 2022
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We present an intercomparison of 2009–2018 lapse rate tropopause characteristics as derived from ECMWF's ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Large-scale features are similar, but ERA5 shows notably larger variability, which we mainly attribute to UTLS temperature fluctuations due to gravity waves being better resolved by ECMWF's IFS forecast model. Following evaluation with radiosondes and GPS data, we conclude ERA5 will be a more suitable asset for tropopause-related studies in future work.
Linye Song, Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Jianping Guo, Conglan Cheng, and Yong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1669–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022, 2022
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This study shows that in most years when haze pollution (HP) over the North China Plain (NCP) is more (less) serious in winter, air conditions in the following spring are also worse (better) than normal. Conversely, there are some years when HP in the following spring is opposed to that in winter. It is found that North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies play important roles in HP evolution over the NCP. Thus North Atlantic SST is an important preceding signal for NCP HP evolution.
Anna A. Shestakova, Dmitry G. Chechin, Christof Lüpkes, Jörg Hartmann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1529–1548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1529-2022, 2022
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This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the easterly orographic wind episode which occurred over Svalbard on 30–31 May 2017. This wind caused a significant temperature rise on the lee side of the mountains and greatly intensified the snowmelt. This episode was investigated on the basis of measurements collected during the ACLOUD/PASCAL field campaigns with the help of numerical modeling.
Xiadong An, Lifang Sheng, Chun Li, Wen Chen, Yulian Tang, and Jingliang Huangfu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 725–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-725-2022, 2022
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The North China Plain (NCP) suffered many periods of haze in winter during 1985–2015, related to the rainfall-induced diabatic heating over southern China. The haze over the NCP is modulated by an anomalous anticyclone caused by the Rossby wave and a north–south circulation (NSC) induced mainly by diabatic heating. As a Rossby wave source, rainfall-induced diabatic heating supports waves and finally strengthens the anticyclone over the NCP. These changes favor haze over the NCP.
Chenrui Diao, Yangyang Xu, and Shang-Ping Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18499–18518, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021, 2021
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Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission has shown a zonal redistribution since the 1980s, with a decline in the Western Hemisphere (WH) high latitudes and an increase in the Eastern Hemisphere (EH) low latitudes. This study compares the role of zonally asymmetric forcings affecting the climate. The WH aerosol reduction dominates the poleward shift of the Hadley cell and the North Pacific warming, while the EH AA forcing is largely confined to the emission domain and induces local cooling responses.
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Heidi Huntrieser, Sergio Soler, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Nicolau Pineda, Javier Navarro-González, Víctor Reglero, Joan Montanyà, Oscar van der Velde, and Nikos Koutsias
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17529–17557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17529-2021, 2021
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Lightning-ignited fires tend to occur in remote areas and can spread significantly before suppression. Long continuing current (LCC) lightning, preferably taking place in dry thunderstorms, is believed to be the main precursor of lightning-ignited fires. We analyze fire databases of lightning-ignited fires in the Mediterranean basin and report the shared meteorological conditions of fire- and LCC-lightning-producing thunderstorms. These results can be useful to improve fire forecasting methods.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, 2021
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We investigate the origin of air masses sampled at Mount Chacaltaya, Bolivia. Three-quarters of the measured air has not been influenced by the surface in the previous 4 d. However, it is rare that, at any given time, the sampled air has not been influenced at all by the surface, and often the sampled air has multiple origins. The influence of the surface is more prevalent during day than night. Furthermore, during the 6-month study, one-third of the air masses originated from Amazonia.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, 2021
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Heat-related illnesses are of increasing concern in China given its rapid urbanisation and our ever-warming climate. We examine the relative impacts that land surface properties and anthropogenic heat have on the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing using ADMS-Urban. Air temperature measurements and satellite-derived land surface temperatures provide valuable means of evaluating modelled spatiotemporal variations. This work provides critical information for urban planners and UHI mitigation.
Tobias Wolf, Lasse H. Pettersson, and Igor Esau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12463–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12463-2021, 2021
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House heating by wood-burning stoves is cozy and needed in boreal cities, e.g., Bergen, Norway. But smoke (aerosols) from stoves may reduce urban air quality. It can be transported over long distance excessively polluting some neighborhoods. Who will suffer the most? Our modelling study looks at urban pollution in unprecedented meter-sized details tracing smoke pathways and turbulent dispersion in a typical city. We prototype effective policy scenarios to mitigate urban air quality problems.
Piotr Sekuła, Anita Bokwa, Jakub Bartyzel, Bogdan Bochenek, Łukasz Chmura, Michał Gałkowski, and Mirosław Zimnoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12113–12139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12113-2021, 2021
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The wind shear generated on a local scale by the diversified relief’s impact can be a factor which significantly modifies the spatial pattern of PM10 concentration. The vertical profile of PM10 over a city located in a large valley during the events with high surface-level PM10 concentrations may show a sudden decrease with height not only due to the increase in wind speed, but also due to the change in wind direction alone. Vertical aerosanitary urban zones can be distinguished.
Jangho Lee, Jeffrey C. Mast, and Andrew E. Dessler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11889–11904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021, 2021
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This paper investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes. There are three major findings in this study. We quantify how unforced variability in the climate impacts can lead to large variations where heat waves occur, we find that all heat extremes increase as the climate warms, especially between 1.5 and 2.0 °C of the average global warming, and we show that the economic inequity of facing extreme heat will worsen in a warmer world.
Hyunju Jung, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Bjorn Stevens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10337–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10337-2021, 2021
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We analyze the behavior of organized convection in a large-scale flow by imposing a mean flow to idealized simulations. In the mean flow, organized convection initially propagates slower than the mean wind speed and becomes stationary. The initial upstream and downstream difference in surface fluxes becomes symmetric as the surface momentum flux acts as a drag, resulting in the stationarity. Meanwhile, the surface enthalpy flux has a minor role in the propagation of the convection.
Cited articles
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Beckett, F. M., Witham, C. S., Leadbetter, S. J., Crocker, R., Webster, H. N., Hort, M. C., Jones, A. R., Devenish, B. J., and Thomson, D. J.: Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC: A Review of Developments since the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull Volcano Ash Cloud, Atmosphere, 11, 352, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040352, 2020. a
Belitz, K. and Stackelberg, P. E.: Evaluation of six methods for correcting bias in estimates from ensemble tree machine learning regression models, Environ. Modell. Softw., 139, 105006, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105006, 2021. a
Cai, Z., Griessbach, S., and Hoffmann, L.: Improved estimation of volcanic SO2 injections from satellite retrievals and Lagrangian transport simulations: the 2019 Raikoke eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6787–6809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6787-2022, 2022. a, b
Chai, T., Crawford, A., Stunder, B., Pavolonis, M. J., Draxler, R., and Stein, A.: Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2865–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2865-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Chai, T. F., Draxler, R., and Stein, A.: Source term estimation using air concentration measurements and a Lagrangian dispersion model – Experiments with pseudo and real cesium-137 observations from the Fukushima nuclear accident, Atmos. Environ., 106, 241–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.01.070, 2015. a
Crawford, A. M.: The use of Gaussian mixture models with atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion models for density estimation and feature identification, Atmosphere, 11, 1369, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121369, 2020. a, b, c
Crawford, A.: ash_eval_notebooks (Version v0) [Computer software], Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7248972, 2022. a
Crawford, A. M., Stunder, B. J. B., Ngan, F., and Pavolonis, M. J.: Initializing HYSPLIT with satellite observations of volcanic ash: A case study of the 2008 Kasatochi eruption, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 10786–10803, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024779, 2016. a, b
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Short summary
This study describes the development of a workflow which produces probabilistic and quantitative forecasts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. The workflow includes methods of incorporating satellite observations of the ash cloud into a modeling framework as well as verification statistics that can be used to guide further model development and provide information for risk-based approaches to flight planning.
This study describes the development of a workflow which produces probabilistic and quantitative...
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