Evaluation and bias correction of probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts

Crawford, Alice; Chai, Tianfeng; Wang, Binyu; Ring, Allison; Stunder, Barbara; Loughner, Christopher P.; Pavolonis, Michael; Sieglaff, Justin

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 21

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13967-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 21

Research article

|

02 Nov 2022

Research article |

| 02 Nov 2022

Evaluation and bias correction of probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts

Alice Crawford, Tianfeng Chai, Binyu Wang, Allison Ring, Barbara Stunder, Christopher P. Loughner, Michael Pavolonis, and Justin Sieglaff

Model code and software

Real-time Environmental Applications and Display System (READY) NOAA Air Resources Laboratory https://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php

ash_eval_notebooks (Version v0) A. Crawford https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7248972

Short summary

This study describes the development of a workflow which produces probabilistic and quantitative forecasts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. The workflow includes methods of incorporating satellite observations of the ash cloud into a modeling framework as well as verification statistics that can be used to guide further model development and provide information for risk-based approaches to flight planning.