Articles | Volume 22, issue 17
Research article
 | Highlight paper
01 Sep 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 01 Sep 2022

Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment

Megan Jeramaz Lickley, John S. Daniel, Eric L. Fleming, Stefan Reimann, and Susan Solomon


Total article views: 2,878 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
2,154 668 56 2,878 177 34 45
  • HTML: 2,154
  • PDF: 668
  • XML: 56
  • Total: 2,878
  • Supplement: 177
  • BibTeX: 34
  • EndNote: 45
Views and downloads (calculated since 08 Apr 2022)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 08 Apr 2022)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 2,878 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,981 with geography defined and -103 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1


Latest update: 27 May 2024
Executive editor
Banks of ozone-depleting halogenated carbon compounds continue to be sources of emissions. Their contribution to current and future emissions, however, is highly uncertain, and this uncertainty obscures ongoing emissions attribution and undermines international efforts to evaluate global compliance with the Montreal Protocol. The paper by Lickley et al. presents a convincing and thorough method to assess the banks of several halocarbons and their emissions based on known atmospheric lifetimes and constrained by observed atmospheric concentrations. The authors demonstrate that the banks of the halocarbons under assessment are very likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that total production has been very likely higher than reported. These are most important results that will find their way in the next WMO ozone assessment and have to be considered in assessments of global warming.
Short summary
Halocarbons contained in equipment continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These banks must be carefully accounted for in evaluating compliance with the Montreal Protocol. We extend a Bayesian model to the suite of regulated chemicals subject to banking. We find that banks are substantially larger than previous estimates, and we identify banks by chemical and equipment type whose future emissions will contribute to global warming and delay ozone-hole recovery if left unrecovered.
Final-revised paper