Articles | Volume 22, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10841-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10841-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 26 Aug 2022
| 26 Aug 2022
Impacts of combined microphysical and land-surface uncertainties on convective clouds and precipitation in different weather regimes
Christian Barthlott
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Department Troposphere (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Amirmahdi Zarboo
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Department Troposphere (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Takumi Matsunobu
Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany
Christian Keil
Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany
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Takumi Matsunobu, Christian Keil, and Christian Barthlott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1273–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, 2022
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This study quantifies the impact of poorly constrained parameters used to represent aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions on precipitation and cloud forecasts associated with uncertainties in input atmospheric states. Uncertainties in these parameters have a non-negligible impact on daily precipitation amount and largely change the amount of cloud. The comparison between different weather situations reveals that the impact becomes more important when convection is triggered by local effects.
Christian Barthlott, Amirmahdi Zarboo, Takumi Matsunobu, and Christian Keil
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2153-2022, 2022
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The relative impact of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and the shape parameter of the cloud droplet size distribution is evaluated in realistic convection-resolving simulations. We find that an increase in the shape parameter can produce almost as large a variation in precipitation as a CCN increase from maritime to polluted conditions. The choice of the shape parameter may be more important than previously thought for determining cloud radiative characteristics.
Christian Barthlott and Andrew I. Barrett
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, 2020
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The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low. By moving the model domain by just one grid point changed whether the MCS was successfully simulated or not. The decisive factor seems to be small differences in the initial track of the convection: cooler air near the coast inhibited development there, but tracks slightly more inland found more favorable conditions.
Linda Schneider, Christian Barthlott, Corinna Hoose, and Andrew I. Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12343–12359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019, 2019
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This study addresses the relative impact of orography, soil moisture, and aerosols on precipitation over Germany in different weather regimes. We find that the impact of these perturbations is higher for weak than for strong large-scale forcing. Furthermore, aerosols and soil moisture are both of similar importance for precipitation forecasting, which indicates that their inclusion in operational ensemble forecasting should be assessed in the future.
Sylvia C. Sullivan, Christian Barthlott, Jonathan Crosier, Ilya Zhukov, Athanasios Nenes, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16461–16480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16461-2018, 2018
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Ice crystal formation in clouds can occur via thermodynamic nucleation, but also via mechanical collisions between pre-existing crystals or co-existing droplets. When descriptions of this mechanical ice generation are implemented into the COSMO weather model, we find that the contributions to crystal number from thermodynamic and mechanical processes are of the same order. Mechanical ice generation also intensifies differences in precipitation intensity between dynamic and quiescent regions.
Andreas Macke, Patric Seifert, Holger Baars, Christian Barthlott, Christoph Beekmans, Andreas Behrendt, Birger Bohn, Matthias Brueck, Johannes Bühl, Susanne Crewell, Thomas Damian, Hartwig Deneke, Sebastian Düsing, Andreas Foth, Paolo Di Girolamo, Eva Hammann, Rieke Heinze, Anne Hirsikko, John Kalisch, Norbert Kalthoff, Stefan Kinne, Martin Kohler, Ulrich Löhnert, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Vera Maurer, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Jan Schween, Ilya Serikov, Holger Siebert, Clemens Simmer, Florian Späth, Sandra Steinke, Katja Träumner, Silke Trömel, Birgit Wehner, Andreas Wieser, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Xinxin Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4887–4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, 2017
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This article provides an overview of the instrumental setup and the main results obtained during the two HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiments HOPE-Jülich and HOPE-Melpitz conducted in Germany in April–May and Sept 2013, respectively. Goal of the field experiments was to provide high-resolution observational datasets for both, improving the understaning of boundary layer and cloud processes, as well as for the evaluation of the new ICON model that is run at 156 m horizontal resolution.
C. Barthlott and C. Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12361–12384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12361-2015, 2015
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This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling model for 7 cases of 2013. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests, the variability of clouds and precipitation and how this variability changes with model resolution are investigated. The performance of the model at these resolutions is of general relevance to the research community as well as to operational forecasters
Takumi Matsunobu, Christian Keil, and Christian Barthlott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1273–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022, 2022
Short summary
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This study quantifies the impact of poorly constrained parameters used to represent aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions on precipitation and cloud forecasts associated with uncertainties in input atmospheric states. Uncertainties in these parameters have a non-negligible impact on daily precipitation amount and largely change the amount of cloud. The comparison between different weather situations reveals that the impact becomes more important when convection is triggered by local effects.
Christian Barthlott, Amirmahdi Zarboo, Takumi Matsunobu, and Christian Keil
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2153–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2153-2022, 2022
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The relative impact of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and the shape parameter of the cloud droplet size distribution is evaluated in realistic convection-resolving simulations. We find that an increase in the shape parameter can produce almost as large a variation in precipitation as a CCN increase from maritime to polluted conditions. The choice of the shape parameter may be more important than previously thought for determining cloud radiative characteristics.
Christian Barthlott and Andrew I. Barrett
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-207-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that affected Germany at Pentecost 2014 was one of the most severe for decades. However, the predictability of this system was very low. By moving the model domain by just one grid point changed whether the MCS was successfully simulated or not. The decisive factor seems to be small differences in the initial track of the convection: cooler air near the coast inhibited development there, but tracks slightly more inland found more favorable conditions.
Linda Schneider, Christian Barthlott, Corinna Hoose, and Andrew I. Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12343–12359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019, 2019
Short summary
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This study addresses the relative impact of orography, soil moisture, and aerosols on precipitation over Germany in different weather regimes. We find that the impact of these perturbations is higher for weak than for strong large-scale forcing. Furthermore, aerosols and soil moisture are both of similar importance for precipitation forecasting, which indicates that their inclusion in operational ensemble forecasting should be assessed in the future.
Sylvia C. Sullivan, Christian Barthlott, Jonathan Crosier, Ilya Zhukov, Athanasios Nenes, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16461–16480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16461-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Ice crystal formation in clouds can occur via thermodynamic nucleation, but also via mechanical collisions between pre-existing crystals or co-existing droplets. When descriptions of this mechanical ice generation are implemented into the COSMO weather model, we find that the contributions to crystal number from thermodynamic and mechanical processes are of the same order. Mechanical ice generation also intensifies differences in precipitation intensity between dynamic and quiescent regions.
Amirmahdi Zarboo, Stefan Bender, John P. Burrows, Johannes Orphal, and Miriam Sinnhuber
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We present the retrieved volume emission rates (VERs) from the airglow of both the daytime and twilight O2(1Σ) band and O2(1Δ) band emissions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). We have investigated the daily mean latitudinal distributions and the time series of the retrieved VER in the altitude range from 53 to 149 km. These observations provide information about the chemistry and dynamics and can be used to infer ozone, solar heating rates, and temperature in the MLT.
Andreas Macke, Patric Seifert, Holger Baars, Christian Barthlott, Christoph Beekmans, Andreas Behrendt, Birger Bohn, Matthias Brueck, Johannes Bühl, Susanne Crewell, Thomas Damian, Hartwig Deneke, Sebastian Düsing, Andreas Foth, Paolo Di Girolamo, Eva Hammann, Rieke Heinze, Anne Hirsikko, John Kalisch, Norbert Kalthoff, Stefan Kinne, Martin Kohler, Ulrich Löhnert, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Vera Maurer, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Jan Schween, Ilya Serikov, Holger Siebert, Clemens Simmer, Florian Späth, Sandra Steinke, Katja Träumner, Silke Trömel, Birgit Wehner, Andreas Wieser, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Xinxin Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4887–4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4887-2017, 2017
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This article provides an overview of the instrumental setup and the main results obtained during the two HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiments HOPE-Jülich and HOPE-Melpitz conducted in Germany in April–May and Sept 2013, respectively. Goal of the field experiments was to provide high-resolution observational datasets for both, improving the understaning of boundary layer and cloud processes, as well as for the evaluation of the new ICON model that is run at 156 m horizontal resolution.
C. Barthlott and C. Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12361–12384, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12361-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling model for 7 cases of 2013. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests, the variability of clouds and precipitation and how this variability changes with model resolution are investigated. The performance of the model at these resolutions is of general relevance to the research community as well as to operational forecasters
Related subject area
Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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There is considerable disagreement on mathematical parameters that describe the number of clouds of different sizes as well as the size of the largest clouds. Both are key defining characteristics of Earth's atmosphere. A previous study provided an incorrect explanation for the disagreement. Instead, the disagreement may be explained by prior studies not properly accounting for the size of their measurement domain. We offer recommendations for how the domain size can be accounted for.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8295–8316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8295-2024, 2024
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Sina Hofer, Klaus Gierens, and Susanne Rohs
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We try to improve the forecast of ice supersaturation (ISS) and potential persistent contrails using data on dynamical quantities in addition to temperature and relative humidity in a modern kind of regression model. Although the results are improved, they are not good enough for flight routing. The origin of the problem is the strong overlap of probability densities conditioned on cases with and without ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the important range of 70–100 %.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7253–7260, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024, 2024
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Climate models are our primary tool to probe past, present, and future climate states unlike the more recent observation record. By constructing a hypothetical model configuration, we show that present-day correlations are insufficient to predict a persistent uncertainty in climate projection (how much sun because clouds will reflect in a changing climate). We hope our result will contribute to the scholarly conversation on better utilizing observations to constrain climate uncertainties.
Britta Schäfer, Robert Oscar David, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Julie Thérèse Pasquier, Georgia Sotiropoulou, and Trude Storelvmo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7179–7202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7179-2024, 2024
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Mixed-phase clouds, i.e., clouds consisting of ice and supercooled water, are very common in the Arctic. However, how these clouds form is often not correctly represented in standard weather models. We show that both ice crystal concentrations in the cloud and precipitation from the cloud can be improved in the model when aerosol concentrations are prescribed from observations and when more processes for ice multiplication, i.e., the production of new ice particles from existing ice, are added.
Nan Sun, Gaopeng Lu, and Yunfei Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7123–7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7123-2024, 2024
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Microphysical characteristics of convective overshooting are essential but poorly understood, and we examine them by using the latest data. (1) Convective overshooting events mainly occur over NC (Northeast China) and northern MEC (Middle and East China). (2) Radar reflectivity of convective overshooting over NC accounts for a higher proportion below the zero level, while the opposite is the case for MEC and SC (South China). (3) Droplets of convective overshooting are large but sparse.
Liu Yang, Saisai Ding, Jing-Wu Liu, and Su-Ping Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6809–6824, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6809-2024, 2024
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Advection fog occurs when warm and moist air moves over a cold sea surface. In this situation, the temperature of the foggy air usually drops below the sea surface temperature (SST), particularly at night. High-resolution simulations show that the cooling effect of longwave radiation from the top of the fog layer permeates through the fog, resulting in a cooling of the surface air below SST. This study emphasizes the significance of monitoring air temperature to enhance sea fog forecasting.
Nadja Omanovic, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Christopher Fuchs, Jan Henneberger, Anna J. Miller, Kevin Ohneiser, Fabiola Ramelli, Patric Seifert, Robert Spirig, Huiying Zhang, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6825–6844, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6825-2024, 2024
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We present simulations with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to study the growth of ice crystals in low clouds following glaciogenic seeding. We show that the simulated ice crystals grow slower than observed and do not consume as many cloud droplets as measured in the field. This may have implications for forecasting precipitation, as the ice phase is crucial for precipitation at middle and high latitudes.
Matthew W. Christensen, Peng Wu, Adam C. Varble, Heng Xiao, and Jerome D. Fast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6455–6476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6455-2024, 2024
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Clouds are essential to keep Earth cooler by reflecting sunlight back to space. We show that an increase in aerosol concentration suppresses precipitation in clouds, causing them to accumulate water and expand in a polluted environment with stronger turbulence and radiative cooling. This process enhances their reflectance by 51 %. It is therefore prudent to account for cloud fraction changes in assessments of aerosol–cloud interactions to improve predictions of climate change.
Andrew DeLaFrance, Lynn McMurdie, Angela Rowe, and Andrew Heymsfield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1480, 2024
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Using a numerical model, the process whereby falling ice crystals accumulate supercooled liquid water droplets is investigated to elucidate its effects on radar-based measurements and surface precipitation. We demonstrate that this process accounted for 55% of the precipitation during a wintertime storm and is uniquely discernable from other ice crystal growth processes in Doppler velocity measurements. These results have implications to measurements from air- and spaceborne platforms.
Jing Yang, Shiye Huang, Tianqi Yang, Qilin Zhang, Yuting Deng, and Yubao Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5989–6010, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5989-2024, 2024
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This study contributes to filling the dearth of understanding the impacts of different secondary ice production (SIP) processes on the cloud electrification in cold-season thunderstorms. The results suggest that SIP, especially the rime-splintering process and the shattering of freezing drops, has significant impacts on the charge structure of the storm. In addition, the modeled radar composite reflectivity and flash rate are improved after implementing the SIP processes in the model.
Ulrike Proske, Sylvaine Ferrachat, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5907–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5907-2024, 2024
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Climate models include treatment of aerosol particles because these influence clouds and radiation. Over time their representation has grown increasingly detailed. This complexity may hinder our understanding of model behaviour. Thus here we simplify the aerosol representation of our climate model by prescribing mean concentrations, which saves run time and helps to discover unexpected model behaviour. We conclude that simplifications provide a new perspective for model study and development.
Alexei Korolev, Zhipeng Qu, Jason Milbrandt, Ivan Heckman, Mélissa Cholette, Mengistu Wolde, Cuong Nguyen, Greg McFarquhar, Paul Lawson, and Ann Fridlind
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1465, 2024
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The phenomenon of high ice water content (HIWC) occurs in mesoscale convective systems (MCS) when a large number of small ice particles with typical sizes of a few hundred micrometers are found at high altitudes. This study presents a conceptual model of the formation of HIWC in tropical MCSs developed based on in-situ observations and numerical simulation. It was found that secondary ice production in the vicinity of the melting layer plays a key role in the formation and maintenance of HIWC.
Wenhui Zhao, Yi Huang, Steven Siems, Michael Manton, and Daniel Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5713–5736, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5713-2024, 2024
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We studied how shallow clouds and rain behave over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using a detailed weather model. We found that the shape of the land, especially mountains, and particles in the air play big roles in influencing these clouds. Surprisingly, the sea's temperature had a smaller effect. Our research helps us understand the GBR's climate and how various factors can influence it, where the importance of the local cloud in thermal coral bleaching has recently been identified.
Sidiki Sanogo, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin, Audran Borella, Kevin Wolf, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5495–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, 2024
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Relative humidity relative to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. This study shows that the properties of the probability density function of RHi differ between the tropics and higher latitudes. In line with RHi and temperature variability, aircraft are likely to produce more contrails with bioethanol and liquid hydrogen as fuel. The impact of this fuel change decreases with decreasing pressure levels but increases from high latitudes to the tropics.
Zane Dedekind, Ulrike Proske, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Ulrike Lohmann, and David Neubauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5389–5404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5389-2024, 2024
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Ice particles precipitating into lower clouds from an upper cloud, the seeder–feeder process, can enhance precipitation. A numerical modeling study conducted in the Swiss Alps found that 48 % of observed clouds were overlapping, with the seeder–feeder process occurring in 10 % of these clouds. Inhibiting the seeder–feeder process reduced the surface precipitation and ice particle growth rates, which were further reduced when additional ice multiplication processes were included in the model.
Liine Heikkinen, Daniel G. Partridge, Sara Blichner, Wei Huang, Rahul Ranjan, Paul Bowen, Emanuele Tovazzi, Tuukka Petäjä, Claudia Mohr, and Ilona Riipinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5117–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5117-2024, 2024
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The organic vapor condensation with water vapor (co-condensation) in rising air below clouds is modeled in this work over the boreal forest because the forest air is rich in organic vapors. We show that the number of cloud droplets can increase by 20 % if considering co-condensation. The enhancements are even larger if the air contains many small, naturally produced aerosol particles. Such conditions are most frequently met in spring in the boreal forest.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5009–5024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, 2024
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The contrail formation potential and its tempo-spatial distribution are estimated for the North Atlantic flight corridor. Meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity are taken from the ERA5 re-analysis and IAGOS. Based on IAGOS flight tracks, crossing length, size, orientation, frequency of occurrence, and overlap of persistent contrail formation areas are determined. The presented conclusions might provide a guide for statistical flight track optimization to reduce contrails.
Jianhao Zhang, Yao-Sheng Chen, Takanobu Yamaguchi, and Graham Feingold
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1021, 2024
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Quantifying cloud response to aerosol perturbations presents a major challenge to understanding the human impact on climate. Using a large number of process-resolving simulations of marine stratocumulus, we show that solar heating plays an important role in governing this response, such that a persistent negative trend is buffered by a negative feedback mechanism after sunrise. It provides implications for the dependence of cloud cooling effect on the timing of advertent aerosol perturbations.
Ravi Kumar Reddy Addula, Ingrid de Almeida Ribeiro, Valeria Molinero, and Baron Peters
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.26434/chemrxiv-2024-1vkn7, https://doi.org/10.26434/chemrxiv-2024-1vkn7, 2024
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Ice nucleation from supercooled droplets is important in many weather and climate modelling efforts. For experiments where droplets are steadily supercooled from the freezing point, our work combines nucleation theory and survival probability analysis to predict the nucleation spectrum, i.e. droplet freezing probabilities vs temperature. We use the new framework to extract approximately consistent rate parameters from experiments with different cooling rates and droplet sizes.
Lucas J. Sterzinger and Adele L. Igel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3529–3540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3529-2024, 2024
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Using idealized large eddy simulations, we find that clouds forming in the Arctic in environments with low concentrations of aerosol particles may be sustained by mixing in new particles through the cloud top. Observations show that higher concentrations of these particles regularly exist above cloud top in concentrations that are sufficient to promote this sustenance.
Mathieu Lachapelle, Mélissa Cholette, and Julie M. Thériault
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-594, 2024
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Hazardous precipitation types such as ice pellets and freezing rain are difficult to predict because they are associated with complex microphysical processes. Using the Predicted Particles Properties (P3), this work shows that secondary ice production processes increase the amount of ice pellets simulated while decreasing the amount of freezing rain. Moreover, the properties of the simulated precipitation compare well with those measured.
Andrea Mosso, Thomas Hocking, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-618, 2024
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Clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the earth, as they can either warm up or cool down the area they cover depending on their height and depth. It is expected that they will alter their behaviour under climate change, which will affect the warming generated by greenhouse gases. This paper proposes a new method to estimate their overall effect by simulating a climate where clouds are transparent. Results show that, with the model used, clouds have a stabilising effect on climate.
Puja Roy, Robert M. Rauber, and Larry Di Girolamo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-526, 2024
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Cloud droplet temperature impacts cloud processes such as activation of ice-nucleating particles. This study investigates the thermal and radial evolution of supercooled cloud droplets and their surrounding environments, with an aim to better understand observed enhancement of ice nucleation at moderately supercooled cloud edges. This analysis shows that the magnitude of droplet cooling during evaporation is much greater than estimated from past studies, especially for drier environments.
Andreas Bier, Simon Unterstrasser, Josef Zink, Dennis Hillenbrand, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, and Annemarie Lottermoser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2319–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2319-2024, 2024
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Using hydrogen as aviation fuel affects contrails' climate impact. We study contrail formation behind aircraft with H2 combustion. Due to the absence of soot emissions, contrail ice crystals are assumed to form only on ambient particles mixed into the plume. The ice crystal number, which strongly varies with temperature and aerosol number density, is decreased by more than 80 %–90 % compared to kerosene contrails. However H2 contrails can form at lower altitudes due to higher H2O emissions.
Prasanth Prabhakaran, Fabian Hoffmann, and Graham Feingold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1919–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1919-2024, 2024
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In this study, we explore the impact of deliberate aerosol perturbation in the northeast Pacific region using large-eddy simulations. Our results show that cloud reflectivity is sensitive to the aerosol sprayer arrangement in the pristine system, whereas in the polluted system it is largely proportional to the total number of aerosol particles injected. These insights would aid in assessing the efficiency of various aerosol injection strategies for climate intervention applications.
Lisa Bock and Axel Lauer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1587-2024, 2024
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Climate model simulations still show a large range of effective climate sensitivity (ECS) with high uncertainties. An important contribution to ECS is cloud climate feedback. We investigate the representation of cloud physical and radiative properties from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models grouped by ECS. We compare the simulated cloud properties of today’s climate from three ECS groups and quantify how the projected changes in cloud properties and cloud radiative effects differ.
Toshi Matsui, Daniel Hernandez-Deckers, Scott Giangrande, Thiago Biscaro, Ann Fridlind, and Scott Braun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3, 2024
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Using computer simulations and real measurements, we discovered that during the dry periods, storms were narrower but more intense, producing heavier rain and more ice particles in the clouds. Our research showed that cumulus bubbles played a key role in creating these intense storms. This study can improve how continental and ocean environments affect tropical regions' rainfall patterns.
Leonie Villiger and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 957–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-957-2024, 2024
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Three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model are used to investigate the cloud–circulation coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. It is shown that stable water isotopes near cloud base in the tropics reflect (1) the diel cycle of the atmospheric circulation, which drives the formation and dissipation of clouds, and (2) changes in the large-scale circulation over the North Atlantic.
Renaud Falga and Chien Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-631-2024, 2024
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The impact of urban land use on regional meteorology and rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon has been assessed in this study. Using a cloud-resolving model centered around Kolkata, we have shown that the urban heat island effect led to a rainfall enhancement via the amplification of convective activity, especially during the night. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that the kinetic effect of the city induced the initiation of a nighttime storm.
Dario Sperber and Klaus Gierens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15609–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15609-2023, 2023
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A significant share of aviation's climate impact is due to persistent contrails. Avoiding their creation is a step toward sustainable air transportation. For this purpose, a reliable forecast of so-called ice-supersaturated regions is needed, which then allows one to plan aircraft routes without persistent contrails. Here, we propose a method that leads to the better prediction of ice-supersaturated regions.
Blaž Gasparini, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Adam B. Sokol, Bernd Kärcher, Eric Jensen, and Dennis L. Hartmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15413–15444, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15413-2023, 2023
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Tropical cirrus clouds are essential for climate, but our understanding of these clouds is limited due to their dependence on a wide range of small- and large-scale climate processes. In this opinion paper, we review recent advances in the study of tropical cirrus clouds, point out remaining open questions, and suggest ways to resolve them.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Lucas Reimann, Clemens Simmer, and Silke Trömel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14219-2023, 2023
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Polarimetric radar observations were assimilated for the first time in a convective-scale numerical weather prediction system in Germany and their impact on short-term precipitation forecasts was evaluated. The assimilation was performed using microphysical retrievals of liquid and ice water content and yielded slightly improved deterministic 9 h precipitation forecasts for three intense summer precipitation cases with respect to the assimilation of radar reflectivity alone.
Cunbo Han, Corinna Hoose, Martin Stengel, Quentin Coopman, and Andrew Barrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14077–14095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14077-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14077-2023, 2023
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Cloud phase has been found to significantly impact cloud thermodynamics and Earth’s radiation budget, and various factors influence it. This study investigates the sensitivity of the cloud-phase distribution to the ice-nucleating particle concentration and thermodynamics. Multiple simulation experiments were performed using the ICON model at the convection-permitting resolution of 1.2 km. Simulation results were compared to two different retrieval products based on SEVIRI measurements.
Yun Lin, Yuan Wang, Jen-Shan Hsieh, Jonathan H. Jiang, Qiong Su, Lijun Zhao, Michael Lavallee, and Renyi Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13835–13852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13835-2023, 2023
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause catastrophic damage to coastal regions. We used a numerical model that explicitly simulates aerosol–cloud interaction and atmosphere–ocean coupling. We show that aerosols and ocean coupling work together to make TC storms bigger but weaker. Moreover, TCs in polluted air have more rainfall and higher sea levels, leading to more severe storm surges and flooding. Our research highlights the roles of aerosols and ocean-coupling feedbacks in TC hazard assessment.
Adam C. Varble, Adele L. Igel, Hugh Morrison, Wojciech W. Grabowski, and Zachary J. Lebo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13791–13808, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13791-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13791-2023, 2023
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As atmospheric particles called aerosols increase in number, the number of droplets in clouds tends to increase, which has been theorized to increase storm intensity. We critically evaluate the evidence for this theory, showing that flaws and limitations of previous studies coupled with unaddressed cloud process complexities draw it into question. We provide recommendations for future observations and modeling to overcome current uncertainties.
Yanfeng He and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13061–13085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13061-2023, 2023
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Lightning has big social impacts. Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) plays a vital role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Investigating past lightning and LNOx trends can provide essential indicators of all lightning-related phenomena. Simulations show almost flat global lightning and LNOx trends during 1960–2014. Past global warming enhances the trends positively, but increases in aerosol have the opposite effect. Moreover, global lightning decreased markedly after the Pinatubo eruption.
Hannah C. Frostenberg, André Welti, Mikael Luhr, Julien Savre, Erik S. Thomson, and Luisa Ickes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10883–10900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10883-2023, 2023
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Observations show that ice-nucleating particle concentrations (INPCs) have a large variety and follow lognormal distributions for a given temperature. We introduce a new immersion freezing parameterization that applies this lognormal behavior. INPCs are drawn randomly from a temperature-dependent lognormal distribution. We then show that the ice content of the modeled Arctic stratocumulus cloud is highly sensitive to the probability of drawing large INPCs.
Kai-I Lin, Kao-Shen Chung, Sheng-Hsiang Wang, Li-Hsin Chen, Yu-Chieng Liou, Pay-Liam Lin, Wei-Yu Chang, Hsien-Jung Chiu, and Yi-Hui Chang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10423–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10423-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10423-2023, 2023
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This study develops a hybrid microphysics scheme to enable the complex model simulation of cloud seeding based on observational cloud condensation nuclei size distribution. Our results show that more precipitation can be developed in the scenarios seeding in the in-cloud region, and seeding over an area of tens km2 is the most efficient strategy due to the strengthening of the accretion process. Moreover, particles bigger than 0.4 μm are the main factor contributing to cloud-seeding effects.
Naifu Shao, Chunsong Lu, Xingcan Jia, Yuan Wang, Yubin Li, Yan Yin, Bin Zhu, Tianliang Zhao, Duanyang Liu, Shengjie Niu, Shuxian Fan, Shuqi Yan, and Jingjing Lv
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9873–9890, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9873-2023, 2023
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Fog is an important meteorological phenomenon that affects visibility. Aerosols and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) play critical roles in the fog life cycle. In this study, aerosol-induced changes in fog properties become more remarkable in the second fog (Fog2) than in the first fog (Fog1). The reason is that aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI) delays Fog1 dissipation, leading to the PBL meteorological conditions being more conducive to Fog2 formation and to stronger ACI in Fog2.
Rachel L. James, Jonathan Crosier, and Paul J. Connolly
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9099–9121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9099-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9099-2023, 2023
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Secondary ice production (SIP) may significantly enhance the ice particle concentration in mixed-phase clouds. We present a systematic modelling study of secondary ice formation in idealised shallow convective clouds for various conditions. Our results suggest that the SIP mechanism of collisions of supercooled water drops with more massive ice particles may be a significant ice formation mechanism in shallow convective clouds outside the rime-splintering temperature range (−3 to −8 °C).
Melanie Lauer, Annette Rinke, Irina Gorodetskaya, Michael Sprenger, Mario Mech, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8705–8726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8705-2023, 2023
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We present a new method to analyse the influence of atmospheric rivers (ARs), cyclones, and fronts on the precipitation in the Arctic, based on two campaigns: ACLOUD (early summer 2017) and AFLUX (early spring 2019). There are differences between both campaign periods: in early summer, the precipitation is mostly related to ARs and fronts, especially when they are co-located, while in early spring, cyclones isolated from ARs and fronts contributed most to the precipitation.
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Short summary
The relevance of microphysical and land-surface uncertainties for convective-scale predictability is evaluated with a combined-perturbation strategy in realistic convection-resolving simulations. We find a large ensemble spread which demonstrates that the uncertainties investigated here and, in particular, their collective effect are highly relevant for quantitative precipitation forecasting of summertime convection in central Europe.
The relevance of microphysical and land-surface uncertainties for convective-scale...
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