Articles | Volume 22, issue 16
Research article
26 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 26 Aug 2022

Impacts of combined microphysical and land-surface uncertainties on convective clouds and precipitation in different weather regimes

Christian Barthlott, Amirmahdi Zarboo, Takumi Matsunobu, and Christian Keil

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The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control
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Importance of aerosols and shape of the cloud droplet size distribution for convective clouds and precipitation
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Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany
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Relative impact of aerosol, soil moisture, and orography perturbations on deep convection
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The effect of secondary ice production parameterization on the simulation of a cold frontal rainband
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Subject: Clouds and Precipitation | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Physics (physical properties and processes)
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Cited articles

Albrecht, B. A.: Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230,, 1989. a
Alpert, P.: Meso-meteorology: Factor separation examples in atmospheric meso-scale motions, Factor Separation in the Atmosphere: Applications and Future Prospects, edited by: Alpert, P. and Sholokhman, T., Cambridge University Press, 53–66,​​​​​​​, 2011. a
Altaratz, O., Koren, I., Remer, L., and Hirsch, E.: Review: Cloud invigoration by aerosols–Coupling between microphysics and dynamics, Atmos. Res., 140–141, 38–60,, 2014. a, b
Barthlott, C. and Barrett, A. I.: Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 207–224,, 2020. a
Barthlott, C. and Hoose, C.: Spatial and temporal variability of clouds and precipitation over Germany: multiscale simulations across the “gray zone”, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12361–12384,, 2015. a
Short summary
The relevance of microphysical and land-surface uncertainties for convective-scale predictability is evaluated with a combined-perturbation strategy in realistic convection-resolving simulations. We find a large ensemble spread which demonstrates that the uncertainties investigated here and, in particular, their collective effect are highly relevant for quantitative precipitation forecasting of summertime convection in central Europe.
Final-revised paper