Articles | Volume 22, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10841-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10841-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 26 Aug 2022
| 26 Aug 2022
Impacts of combined microphysical and land-surface uncertainties on convective clouds and precipitation in different weather regimes
Christian Barthlott
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Department Troposphere (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Amirmahdi Zarboo
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Department Troposphere (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Takumi Matsunobu
Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany
Christian Keil
Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany
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This study quantifies the impact of poorly constrained parameters used to represent aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions on precipitation and cloud forecasts associated with uncertainties in input atmospheric states. Uncertainties in these parameters have a non-negligible impact on daily precipitation amount and largely change the amount of cloud. The comparison between different weather situations reveals that the impact becomes more important when convection is triggered by local effects.
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The relative impact of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and the shape parameter of the cloud droplet size distribution is evaluated in realistic convection-resolving simulations. We find that an increase in the shape parameter can produce almost as large a variation in precipitation as a CCN increase from maritime to polluted conditions. The choice of the shape parameter may be more important than previously thought for determining cloud radiative characteristics.
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Short summary
The relevance of microphysical and land-surface uncertainties for convective-scale predictability is evaluated with a combined-perturbation strategy in realistic convection-resolving simulations. We find a large ensemble spread which demonstrates that the uncertainties investigated here and, in particular, their collective effect are highly relevant for quantitative precipitation forecasting of summertime convection in central Europe.
The relevance of microphysical and land-surface uncertainties for convective-scale...
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