Articles | Volume 22, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10551-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10551-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 19 Aug 2022
| 19 Aug 2022
Statistical and machine learning methods for evaluating trends in air quality under changing meteorological conditions
Minghao Qiu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
current address: Earth System Science Department, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
Corwin Zigler
Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, USA
Noelle E. Selin
Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Terry Keating, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-65, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed to inform the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic and multi-media mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases in the environment.
William Atkinson, Sebastian D. Eastham, Y.-H. Henry Chen, Jennifer Morris, Sergey Paltsev, C. Adam Schlosser, and Noelle E. Selin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7767–7789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7767-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7767-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding policy effects on human-caused air pollutant emissions is key for assessing related health impacts. We develop a flexible scenario tool that combines updated emissions data sets, long-term economic modeling, and comprehensive technology pathways to clarify the impacts of climate and air quality policies. Results show the importance of both policy levers in the future to prevent long-term emission increases from offsetting near-term air quality improvements from existing policies.
Shaojie Song, Hélène Angot, Noelle E. Selin, Hubert Gallée, Francesca Sprovieri, Nicola Pirrone, Detlev Helmig, Joël Savarino, Olivier Magand, and Aurélien Dommergue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15825–15840, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15825-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15825-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Mercury is a trace metal with adverse health effects on human and wildlife. Its unique property makes it undergo long-range transport, and even remote Antarctica receives significant inputs. This paper presents the first model that aims to understand mercury behavior over the Antarctic Plateau. We find that mercury is quickly cycled between snow and air in the sunlit period, likely driven by bromine chemistry, and that several uncertain processes contribute to its behavior in the dark period.
Benjamin Brown-Steiner, Noelle E. Selin, Ronald Prinn, Simone Tilmes, Louisa Emmons, Jean-François Lamarque, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4155–4174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4155-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We conduct three simulations of atmospheric chemistry using chemical mechanisms of different levels of complexity and compare their results to observations. We explore situations in which the simplified mechanisms match the output of the most complex mechanism, as well as when they diverge. We investigate how concurrent utilization of chemical mechanisms of different complexities can further our atmospheric-chemistry understanding at various scales and give some strategies for future research.
Benjamin Brown-Steiner, Noelle E. Selin, Ronald G. Prinn, Erwan Monier, Simone Tilmes, Louisa Emmons, and Fernando Garcia-Menendez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8373–8388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8373-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8373-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Detecting signals in observations and simulations of atmospheric chemistry is difficult due to the underlying variability in the chemistry, meteorology, and climatology. Here we examine the scale dependence of ozone variability and explore strategies for reducing or averaging this variability and thereby enhancing ozone signal detection capabilities. We find that 10–15 years of temporal averaging, and some level of spatial averaging, reduces the risk of overconfidence in ozone signals.
Johannes Bieser, Franz Slemr, Jesse Ambrose, Carl Brenninkmeijer, Steve Brooks, Ashu Dastoor, Francesco DeSimone, Ralf Ebinghaus, Christian N. Gencarelli, Beate Geyer, Lynne E. Gratz, Ian M. Hedgecock, Daniel Jaffe, Paul Kelley, Che-Jen Lin, Lyatt Jaegle, Volker Matthias, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Shaojie Song, Oleg Travnikov, Andreas Weigelt, Winston Luke, Xinrong Ren, Andreas Zahn, Xin Yang, Yun Zhu, and Nicola Pirrone
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6925–6955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6925-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6925-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a multi model study to investigate our ability to reproduce the vertical distribution of mercury in the atmosphere. For this, we used observational data from over 40 aircraft flights in EU and US. We compared observations to the results of seven chemistry transport models and found that the models are able to reproduce vertical gradients of total and elemental Hg. Finally, we found that different chemical reactions seem responsible for the oxidation of Hg depending on altitude.
Oleg Travnikov, Hélène Angot, Paulo Artaxo, Mariantonia Bencardino, Johannes Bieser, Francesco D'Amore, Ashu Dastoor, Francesco De Simone, María del Carmen Diéguez, Aurélien Dommergue, Ralf Ebinghaus, Xin Bin Feng, Christian N. Gencarelli, Ian M. Hedgecock, Olivier Magand, Lynwill Martin, Volker Matthias, Nikolay Mashyanov, Nicola Pirrone, Ramesh Ramachandran, Katie Alana Read, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Fabrizio Sena, Shaojie Song, Francesca Sprovieri, Dennis Wip, Ingvar Wängberg, and Xin Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5271–5295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5271-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a complex analysis of processes governing Hg fate in the atmosphere involving both measurement data and simulation results of chemical transport models. Evaluation of the model simulations and numerical experiments against observations allows explaining spatial and temporal variations of Hg concentration in the near-surface atmospheric layer and shows possibility of multiple pathways of Hg oxidation occurring concurrently in various parts of the atmosphere.
Colin P. Thackray and Noelle E. Selin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4585–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4585-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
PFCAs are toxic contaminants that can form in the atmosphere when precursor chemicals are released and degrade. We calculate the capacity of different atmospheric environments to form PFCAs this way. Different environments have very different capacities to form PFCAs, with the atmosphere far from sources of pollution being much better able to make the more toxic PFCAs. While the chemistry involved has uncertainties, they are small compared to the differences between environments.
Hélène Angot, Ashu Dastoor, Francesco De Simone, Katarina Gårdfeldt, Christian N. Gencarelli, Ian M. Hedgecock, Sarka Langer, Olivier Magand, Michelle N. Mastromonaco, Claus Nordstrøm, Katrine A. Pfaffhuber, Nicola Pirrone, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Henrik Skov, Shaojie Song, Francesca Sprovieri, Alexandra Steffen, Kenjiro Toyota, Oleg Travnikov, Xin Yang, and Aurélien Dommergue
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10735–10763, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10735-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This is a synthesis of the atmospheric mercury (Hg) monitoring data available in recent years (2011–2015) in the Arctic and in Antarctica along with a comparison of these observations with numerical simulations using four cutting-edge global models. Based on this comparison, we discuss whether the processes that affect atmospheric Hg seasonality and interannual variability are appropriately represented in the models, and identify remaining research gaps.
Carey L. Friedman and Noelle E. Selin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3433–3448, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3433-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3433-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new global model to simulate the atmospheric transport of toxic contaminants (PCBs). We evaluate the model against PCB observations in the northern hemisphere midlatitude and Arctic atmosphere. We then use the model to calculate global budgets of PCBs and to examine the influence of climate- and emissions-driven processes on Arctic atmospheric concentrations. We find that processes occurring outside the Arctic have a greater influence on Arctic PCBs than those occurring within.
V. Shah, L. Jaeglé, L. E. Gratz, J. L. Ambrose, D. A. Jaffe, N. E. Selin, S. Song, T. L. Campos, F. M. Flocke, M. Reeves, D. Stechman, M. Stell, J. Festa, J. Stutz, A. J. Weinheimer, D. J. Knapp, D. D. Montzka, G. S. Tyndall, E. C. Apel, R. S. Hornbrook, A. J. Hills, D. D. Riemer, N. J. Blake, C. A. Cantrell, and R. L. Mauldin III
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1511–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1511-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1511-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present airborne observations of mercury over the southeastern USA during summer. Higher concentrations of oxidized mercury were observed in clean, dry air masses descending in the subtropical anti-cyclones. We used an atmospheric model to simulate the chemistry and transport of mercury. We found reasonable agreement with the observations when the modeled oxidation of elemental mercury was increased, suggesting fast cycling between elemental and oxidized mercury.
S. Song, N. E. Selin, A. L. Soerensen, H. Angot, R. Artz, S. Brooks, E.-G. Brunke, G. Conley, A. Dommergue, R. Ebinghaus, T. M. Holsen, D. A. Jaffe, S. Kang, P. Kelley, W. T. Luke, O. Magand, K. Marumoto, K. A. Pfaffhuber, X. Ren, G.-R. Sheu, F. Slemr, T. Warneke, A. Weigelt, P. Weiss-Penzias, D. C. Wip, and Q. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7103–7125, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7103-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7103-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A better knowledge of mercury (Hg) emission fluxes into the global atmosphere is important for assessing its human health impacts and evaluating the effectiveness of corresponding policy actions. We for the first time apply a top-down approach at a global scale to quantitatively estimate present-day mercury emission sources as well as key parameters in a chemical transport model, in order to better constrain the global biogeochemical cycle of mercury.
P. Weiss-Penzias, H. M. Amos, N. E. Selin, M. S. Gustin, D. A. Jaffe, D. Obrist, G.-R. Sheu, and A. Giang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1161–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1161-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1161-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Speciated atmospheric Hg measurements from five high-elevation sites were compared with a global mercury model. The comparison confirmed that reactive mercury is formed in dry free tropospheric air from the oxidation of elemental Hg, more so in the summer than in other seasons. Simulations run with OH-O3 oxidation instead of the Br oxidation mechanism compared more closely with observations at desert sites, suggesting future simulations should include multiple reaction mechanisms simultaneously.
T. M. Thompson, R. K. Saari, and N. E. Selin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 969–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-969-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Aerosols | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Troposphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Quantifying the impacts of marine aerosols over the southeast Atlantic Ocean using a chemical transport model: implications for aerosol–cloud interactions
Quantifying the impact of global nitrate aerosol on tropospheric composition fields and its production from lightning NOx
Rapid oxidation of phenolic compounds by O3 and HO●: effects of the air–water interface and mineral dust in tropospheric chemical processes
Modeling the contribution of leads to sea spray aerosol in the high Arctic
Importance of aerosol composition and aerosol vertical profiles in global spatial variation in the relationship between PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth
The co-benefits of a low-carbon future for PM2.5 and O3 air pollution in Europe
Assessing the effectiveness of SO2, NOx, and NH3 emission reductions in mitigating winter PM2.5 in Taiwan using CMAQ
Modelling of atmospheric concentrations of fungal spores: a 2-year simulation over France using CHIMERE
Cluster-dynamics-based parameterization for sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation: comparison and selection through box and three-dimensional modeling
The surface tension and CCN activation of sea spray aerosol particles
Impacts of meteorology and emission reductions on haze pollution during the lockdown in the North China Plain: Insights from six-year simulations
Observed and CMIP6-model-simulated organic aerosol response to drought in the contiguous United States during summertime
Cooling radiative forcing effect enhancement of atmospheric amines and mineral particles caused by heterogeneous uptake and oxidation
Exploring the processes controlling secondary inorganic aerosol: Evaluating the global GEOS-Chem simulation using a suite of aircraft campaigns
Source-resolved atmospheric metal emissions, concentrations, and deposition fluxes into the East Asian seas
Predicted impacts of heterogeneous chemical pathways on particulate sulfur over Fairbanks, Alaska, the N. Hemisphere, and the Contiguous United States
Land use change influence on atmospheric organic gases, aerosols, and radiative effects
Analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over the greater Athens area using the EPISODE–CityChem source dispersion and photochemistry model
Global estimates of ambient reactive nitrogen components during 2000–2100 based on the multi-stage model
Impact of mineral dust on the global nitrate aerosol direct and indirect radiative effect
The role of naphthalene and its derivatives in the formation of secondary organic aerosol in the Yangtze River Delta region, China
Unveiling the optimal regression model for source apportionment of the oxidative potential of PM10
Investigating the contribution of grown new particles to cloud condensation nuclei with largely varying preexisting particles – Part 2: Modeling chemical drivers and 3-D new particle formation occurrence
Technical note: Influence of different averaging metrics and temporal resolutions on the aerosol pH calculated by thermodynamic modeling
Dual roles of the inorganic aqueous phase on secondary organic aerosol growth from benzene and phenol
Global source apportionment of aerosols into major emission regions and sectors over 1850–2017
Modeling atmospheric brown carbon in the GISS ModelE Earth system model
Observation-constrained kinetic modeling of isoprene SOA formation in the atmosphere
Significant impact of urban tree biogenic emissions on air quality estimated by a bottom-up inventory and chemistry transport modeling
Secondary organic aerosols derived from intermediate-volatility n-alkanes adopt low-viscous phase state
Modeling the drivers of fine PM pollution over Central Europe: impacts and contributions of emissions from different sources
Reaction of SO3 with H2SO4 and its implications for aerosol particle formation in the gas phase and at the air–water interface
Weakened aerosol–radiation interaction exacerbating ozone pollution in eastern China since China's clean air actions
Uncertainties from biomass burning aerosols in air quality models obscure public health impacts in Southeast Asia
Oxidative potential apportionment of atmospheric PM1: a new approach combining high-sensitive online analysers for chemical composition and offline OP measurement technique
Aqueous-phase chemistry of glyoxal with multifunctional reduced nitrogen compounds: a potential missing route for secondary brown carbon
An updated modeling framework to simulate Los Angeles air quality – Part 1: Model development, evaluation, and source apportionment
Frequent haze events associated with transport and stagnation over the corridor between the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta
Evaluation of WRF-Chem-simulated meteorology and aerosols over northern India during the severe pollution episode of 2016
How well are aerosol–cloud interactions represented in climate models? – Part 1: Understanding the sulfate aerosol production from the 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption
pH regulates the formation of organosulfates and inorganic sulfate from organic peroxide reaction with dissolved SO2 in aquatic media
Technical note: Accurate, reliable, and high-resolution air quality predictions by improving the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service using a novel statistical post-processing method
Contribution of intermediate-volatility organic compounds from on-road transport to secondary organic aerosol levels in Europe
Development of an integrated model framework for multi-air-pollutant exposure assessments in high-density cities
CAMx–UNIPAR simulation of secondary organic aerosol mass formed from multiphase reactions of hydrocarbons under the Central Valley urban atmospheres of California
Impact of urbanization on fine particulate matter concentrations over central Europe
Measurement report: Assessing the impacts of emission uncertainty on aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing from biomass burning in peninsular Southeast Asia
The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics
Dynamics-based estimates of decline trend with fine temporal variations in China's PM2.5 emissions
Effects of simulated secondary organic aerosol water on PM1 levels and composition over the US
Mashiat Hossain, Rebecca M. Garland, and Hannah M. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14123–14143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research examines aerosol dynamics over the southeast Atlantic, a region with significant uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings. Using the GEOS-Chem model, we find that at cloud altitudes, organic aerosols dominate during the biomass burning season, while sulfate aerosols, driven by marine emissions, prevail during peak primary production. These findings highlight the need for accurate representation of marine aerosols in models to improve climate predictions and reduce uncertainties.
Ashok K. Luhar, Anthony C. Jones, and Jonathan M. Wilkinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14005–14028, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14005-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrate aerosol is often omitted in global chemistry–climate models, partly due to the chemical complexity of its formation process. Using a global model, we show that including nitrate aerosol significantly impacts tropospheric composition fields, such as ozone, and radiation. Additionally, lightning-generated oxides of nitrogen influence both nitrate aerosol mass concentrations and aerosol size distribution, which has important implications for radiative fluxes and indirect aerosol effects.
Yanru Huo, Mingxue Li, Xueyu Wang, Jianfei Sun, Yuxin Zhou, Yuhui Ma, and Maoxia He
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12409–12423, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work found that the air–water (A–W) interface and TiO2 clusters promote the oxidation of phenolic compounds (PhCs) to varying degrees compared with the gas phase and bulk water. Some byproducts are more harmful than their parent compounds. This work provides important evidence for the rapid oxidation observed in O3/HO• + PhC experiments at the A–W interface and in mineral dust.
Rémy Lapere, Louis Marelle, Pierre Rampal, Laurent Brodeau, Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, and Jennie L. Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12107–12132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Elongated open-water areas in sea ice, called leads, can release marine aerosols into the atmosphere. In the Arctic, this source of atmospheric particles could play an important role for climate. However, the amount, seasonality and spatial distribution of such emissions are all mostly unknown. Here, we propose a first parameterization for sea spray aerosols emitted through leads in sea ice and quantify their impact on aerosol populations in the high Arctic.
Haihui Zhu, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Chi Li, Jun Meng, Christopher R. Oxford, Xuan Liu, Yanshun Li, Dandan Zhang, Inderjeet Singh, and Alexei Lyapustin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11565–11584, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11565-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11565-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) contributes to 4 million deaths globally each year. Satellite remote sensing of aerosol optical depth (AOD), coupled with a simulated PM2.5–AOD relationship (η), can provide global PM2.5 estimations. This study aims to understand the spatial patterns and driving factors of η to guide future measurement and modeling efforts. We quantified η globally and regionally and found that its spatial variation is strongly influenced by aerosol composition.
Connor J. Clayton, Daniel R. Marsh, Steven T. Turnock, Ailish M. Graham, Kirsty J. Pringle, Carly L. Reddington, Rajesh Kumar, and James B. McQuaid
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10717–10740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that strong climate mitigation could improve air quality in Europe; however, less ambitious mitigation does not result in these co-benefits. We use a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model. This allows us to demonstrate how this varies across European countries and analyse the underlying chemistry. This may help policy-facing researchers understand which sectors and regions need to be prioritised to achieve strong air quality co-benefits of climate mitigation.
Ping-Chieh Huang, Hui-Ming Hung, Hsin-Chih Lai, and Charles C.-K. Chou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10759–10772, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Models were used to study ways to reduce particulate matter (PM) pollution in Taiwan during winter. After considering various factors, such as physical processes and chemical reactions, we found that reducing NOx or NH3 emissions is more effective at mitigating PM2.5 than reducing SO2 emissions. When considering both efficiency and cost, reducing NH3 emissions seems to be a more suitable policy for the studied environment in Taiwan.
Matthieu Vida, Gilles Foret, Guillaume Siour, Florian Couvidat, Olivier Favez, Gaelle Uzu, Arineh Cholakian, Sébastien Conil, Matthias Beekmann, and Jean-Luc Jaffrezo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10601–10615, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10601-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate 2 years of atmospheric fungal spores over France and use observations of polyols and primary biogenic factors from positive matrix factorisation. The representation of emissions taking into account a proxy for vegetation surface and specific humidity enables us to reproduce very accurately the seasonal cycle of fungal spores. Furthermore, we estimate that fungal spores can account for 20 % of PM10 and 40 % of the organic fraction of PM10 over vegetated areas in summer.
Jiewen Shen, Bin Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, An Ning, Yuyang Li, Runlong Cai, Da Gao, Biwu Chu, Yang Gao, Manish Shrivastava, Jingkun Jiang, Xiuhui Zhang, and Hong He
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10261–10278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We extensively compare various cluster-dynamics-based parameterizations for sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation and identify a newly developed parameterization derived from Atmospheric Cluster Dynamic Code (ACDC) simulations as being the most reliable one. This study offers a valuable reference for developing parameterizations of other nucleation systems and is meaningful for the accurate quantification of the environmental and climate impacts of new particle formation.
Judith Kleinheins, Nadia Shardt, Ulrike Lohmann, and Claudia Marcolli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2838, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model the CCN activation of sea spray aerosol particles with classical Köhler theory and with a new model approach that takes surface tension lowering into account. We categorize organic compounds into weak, intermediate, and strong surfactants and we outline for which composition surface tension lowering is important. The results suggest that surface tension lowering allows sea spray aerosol particles in the Aitken mode to be a source of CCN in marine updrafts.
Lang Liu, Xin Long, Yi Li, Zengliang Zang, Yan Han, Zhier Bao, Yang Chen, Tian Feng, and Jinxin Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2704, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study use the WRF-Chem model to assess how meteorological conditions and unexpected emission reductions affected PM2.5 in the North China Plain (NCP). It highlights regional disparities: in the Northern NCP, adverse weather negated emission reduction effects. In contrast, the Southern NCP with PM2.5 decrease due to favorable weather and emission reductions. The research highlighted the interaction between emissions, meteorology and air quality.
Wei Li and Yuxuan Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9339–9353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9339-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9339-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts immensely increased organic aerosol (OA) in the contiguous United States in summer (1998–2019), notably in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southeast (SEUS). The OA rise in the SEUS is driven by the enhanced formation of epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosol due to the increase in biogenic volatile organic compounds and sulfate, while in the PNW, it is caused by wildfires. A total of 10 climate models captured the OA increase in the PNW yet greatly underestimated it in the SEUS.
Weina Zhang, Jianhua Mai, Zhichao Fan, Yongpeng Ji, Yuemeng Ji, Guiying Li, Yanpeng Gao, and Taicheng An
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9019–9030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9019-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9019-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study reveals heterogeneous oxidation causes further radiative forcing effect (RFE) enhancement of amine–mineral mixed particles. Note that RFE increment is higher under clean conditions than that under polluted conditions, which is contributed to high-oxygen-content products. The enhanced RFE of amine–mineral particles caused by heterogenous oxidation is expected to alleviate warming effects.
Olivia G. Norman, Colette L. Heald, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Hugh Coe, Marc N. Fiddler, Jaime R. Green, Jose L. Jimenez, Katharina Kaiser, Jin Liao, Ann M. Middlebrook, Benjamin A. Nault, John B. Nowak, Johannes Schneider, and André Welti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2296, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds that one component of secondary inorganic aerosols, nitrate, is greatly overestimated by a global atmospheric chemistry model compared to observations from 11 flight campaigns. None of the loss and production pathways explored can explain the nitrate bias alone. The model’s inability to capture the variability in the observations remains and requires future investigation to avoid biases in policy-related studies (i.e., air quality, health, climate impacts of these aerosols).
Shenglan Jiang, Yan Zhang, Guangyuan Yu, Zimin Han, Junri Zhao, Tianle Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8363–8381, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8363-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide gridded data on sea-wide concentrations, deposition fluxes, and soluble deposition fluxes with detailed source categories of metals using the modified CMAQ model. We developed a monthly emission inventory of six metals – Fe, Al, V, Ni, Zn, and Cu – from terrestrial anthropogenic, ship, and dust sources in East Asia in 2017. Our results reveal the contribution of each source to the emissions, concentrations, and deposition fluxes of metals in the East Asian seas.
Sara Louise Farrell, Havala O. T. Pye, Robert Gilliam, George Pouliot, Deanna Huff, Golam Sarwar, William Vizuete, Nicole Briggs, and Kathleen Fahey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1550, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we implement heterogeneous sulfur chemistry into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. This new chemistry accounts for the formation of sulfate via aqueous oxidation of SO2 in aerosol liquid water and the formation of hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) – often confused by measurement techniques as sulfate. Model performance in predicting sulfur PM2.5 in Fairbanks, Alaska, and other places that experience dark and cold winters, is improved.
Ryan Vella, Matthew Forrest, Andrea Pozzer, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Thomas Hickler, Jos Lelieveld, and Holger Tost
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2014, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how land cover changes influence biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and atmospheric states. Using a coupled chemistry-climate/vegetation model, we compare present-day land cover (deforested for crops and grazing) with natural vegetation, and an extreme reforestation scenario. We find that vegetation changes significantly impact global BVOC emissions and organic aerosols but have a relatively small effect on total aerosols, clouds, and radiative effects.
Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Matthias Karl, Kim A. Weiss, Dimitris Karagiannis, Eleni Athanasopoulou, Anastasia Kakouri, Aikaterini Bougiatioti, Eleni Liakakou, Iasonas Stavroulas, Georgios Papangelis, Georgios Grivas, Despina Paraskevopoulou, Orestis Speyer, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, and Evangelos Gerasopoulos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7815–7835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A state-of-the-art thermodynamic model has been coupled with the city-scale chemistry transport model EPISODE–CityChem to investigate the equilibrium between the inorganic gas and aerosol phases over the greater Athens area, Greece. The simulations indicate that the formation of nitrates in an urban environment is significantly affected by local nitrogen oxide emissions, as well as ambient temperature, relative humidity, photochemical activity, and the presence of non-volatile cations.
Rui Li, Yining Gao, Lijia Zhang, Yubing Shen, Tianzhao Xu, Wenwen Sun, and Gehui Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7623–7636, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7623-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7623-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A three-stage model was developed to obtain the global maps of reactive nitrogen components during 2000–2100. The results implied that cross-validation R2 values of four species showed satisfactory performance (R2 > 0.55). Most reactive nitrogen components, except NH3, in China showed increases during 2000–2013. In the future scenarios, SSP3-7.0 (traditional-energy scenario) and SSP1-2.6 (carbon neutrality scenario) showed the highest and lowest reactive nitrogen component concentrations.
Alexandros Milousis, Klaus Klingmüller, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Jasper F. Kok, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes, and Vlassis A. Karydis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1579, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of dust on the global radiative effect of nitrate aerosols. The results indicate both positive and negative regional shortwave and longwave radiative effects due to aerosol-radiation interactions and cloud adjustments. The global average net REari and REaci of nitrate aerosols are -0.11 and +0.17 W/m², respectively, mainly affecting the shortwave spectrum. Sensitivity simulations evaluated the influence of mineral dust composition and emissions on the results.
Fei Ye, Jingyi Li, Yaqin Gao, Hongli Wang, Jingyu An, Cheng Huang, Song Guo, Keding Lu, Kangjia Gong, Haowen Zhang, Momei Qin, and Jianlin Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7467–7479, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Naphthalene (Nap) and methylnaphthalene (MN) are key precursors of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), yet their sources and sinks are often inadequately represented in air quality models. In this study, we incorporated detailed emissions, gas-phase chemistry, and SOA parameterization of Nap and MN into CMAQ to address this issue. The findings revealed remarkably high SOA formation potentials for these compounds despite their low emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region during summer.
Vy Dinh Ngoc Thuy, Jean-Luc Jaffrezo, Ian Hough, Pamela A. Dominutti, Guillaume Salque Moreton, Grégory Gille, Florie Francony, Arabelle Patron-Anquez, Olivier Favez, and Gaëlle Uzu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7261–7282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The capacity of particulate matter (PM) to generate reactive oxygen species in vivo is represented by oxidative potential (OP). This study focuses on finding the appropriate model to evaluate the oxidative character of PM sources in six sites using the PM sources and OP. Eight regression techniques are introduced to assess the OP of PM. The study highlights the importance of selecting a model according to the input data characteristics and establishes some recommendations for the procedure.
Ming Chu, Xing Wei, Shangfei Hai, Yang Gao, Huiwang Gao, Yujiao Zhu, Biwu Chu, Nan Ma, Juan Hong, Yele Sun, and Xiaohong Yao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6769–6786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6769-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6769-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used a 20-bin WRF-Chem model to simulate NPF events in the NCP during a three-week observational period in the summer of 2019. The model was able to reproduce the observations during June 29–July 6, which was characterized by a high frequency of NPF occurrence.
Haoqi Wang, Xiao Tian, Wanting Zhao, Jiacheng Li, Haoyu Yu, Yinchang Feng, and Shaojie Song
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6583–6592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
pH is a key property of ambient aerosols, which affect many atmospheric processes. As aerosol pH is a non-conservative parameter, diverse averaging metrics and temporal resolutions may influence the pH values calculated by thermodynamic models. This technical note seeks to quantitatively evaluate the average pH using varied metrics and resolutions. The ultimate goal is to establish standardized reporting practices in future research endeavors.
Jiwon Choi, Myoseon Jang, and Spencer Blau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6567–6582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent phenoxy radical (PPR), formed by phenol gas oxidation and its aqueous reaction, catalytically destroys O3 and retards secondary organic aerosol (SOA) growth. Explicit gas mechanisms including the formation of PPR and low-volatility products from the oxidation of phenol or benzene are applied to the UNIPAR model to predict SOA mass via multiphase reactions of precursors. Aqueous reactions of reactive organics increase SOA mass but retard SOA growth via heterogeneously formed PPR.
Yang Yang, Shaoxuan Mou, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Baojie Li, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6509–6523, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The variations in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and source contributions and their subsequent radiative impact in major emission regions during historical periods are quantified based on an aerosol-tagging system in E3SMv1. Due to the industrial development and implementation of economic policies, sources of anthropogenic aerosols show different variations, which has important implications for pollution prevention and control measures and decision-making for global collaboration.
Maegan A. DeLessio, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Jacek Chowdhary, and Gregory L. Schuster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6275–6304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6275-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6275-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first explicit representation of brown carbon aerosols in the GISS ModelE Earth system model (ESM). Model sensitivity to a range of brown carbon parameters and model performance compared to AERONET and MODIS retrievals of total aerosol properties were assessed. A summary of best practices for incorporating brown carbon into ModelE is also included.
Chuanyang Shen, Xiaoyan Yang, Joel Thornton, John Shilling, Chenyang Bi, Gabriel Isaacman-VanWertz, and Haofei Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6153–6175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6153-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, a condensed multiphase isoprene oxidation mechanism was developed to simulate isoprene SOA formation from chamber and field studies. Our results show that the measured isoprene SOA mass concentrations can be reasonably reproduced. The simulation results indicate that multifunctional low-volatility products contribute significantly to total isoprene SOA. Our findings emphasize that the pathways to produce these low-volatility species should be considered in models.
Alice Maison, Lya Lugon, Soo-Jin Park, Alexia Baudic, Christopher Cantrell, Florian Couvidat, Barbara D'Anna, Claudia Di Biagio, Aline Gratien, Valérie Gros, Carmen Kalalian, Julien Kammer, Vincent Michoud, Jean-Eudes Petit, Marwa Shahin, Leila Simon, Myrto Valari, Jérémy Vigneron, Andrée Tuzet, and Karine Sartelet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6011–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the development of a bottom-up inventory of urban tree biogenic emissions. Emissions are computed for each tree based on their location and characteristics and are integrated in the regional air quality model WRF-CHIMERE. The impact of these biogenic emissions on air quality is quantified for June–July 2022. Over Paris city, urban trees increase the concentrations of particulate organic matter by 4.6 %, of PM2.5 by 0.6 %, and of ozone by 1.0 % on average over 2 months.
Tommaso Galeazzo, Bernard Aumont, Marie Camredon, Richard Valorso, Yong B. Lim, Paul J. Ziemann, and Manabu Shiraiwa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5549–5565, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5549-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) derived from n-alkanes is a major component of anthropogenic particulate matter. We provide an analysis of n-alkane SOA by chemistry modeling, machine learning, and laboratory experiments, showing that n-alkane SOA adopts low-viscous semi-solid or liquid states. Our results indicate few kinetic limitations of mass accommodation in SOA formation, supporting the application of equilibrium partitioning for simulating n-alkane SOA in large-scale atmospheric models.
Lukáš Bartík, Peter Huszár, Jan Karlický, Ondřej Vlček, and Kryštof Eben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4347–4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The presented study deals with the attribution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations to anthropogenic emissions over Central Europe using regional-scale models. It calculates the present-day contributions of different emissions sectors to concentrations of PM2.5 and its secondary components. Moreover, the study investigates the effect of chemical nonlinearities by using multiple source attribution methods and secondary organic aerosol calculation methods.
Rui Wang, Yang Cheng, Shasha Chen, Rongrong Li, Yue Hu, Xiaokai Guo, Tianlei Zhang, Fengmin Song, and Hao Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4029–4046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4029-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4029-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used quantum chemical calculations, Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics simulations, and the ACDC kinetic model to characterize SO3–H2SO4 interaction in the gas phase and at the air–water interface and to study the effect of H2S2O7 on H2SO4–NH3-based clusters. The work expands our understanding of new pathways for the loss of SO3 in acidic polluted areas and helps reveal some missing sources of NPF in metropolitan industrial regions and understand the atmospheric organic–sulfur cycle better.
Hao Yang, Lei Chen, Hong Liao, Jia Zhu, Wenjie Wang, and Xin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4001–4015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study quantifies the response of aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) to anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2017, with the main focus on the contribution to changed O3 concentrations over eastern China both in summer and winter using the WRF-Chem model. The weakened ARI due to decreased anthropogenic emission aggravates the summer (winter) O3 pollution by +0.81 ppb (+0.63 ppb), averaged over eastern China.
Margaret R. Marvin, Paul I. Palmer, Fei Yao, Mohd Talib Latif, and Md Firoz Khan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3699–3715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric chemistry model to investigate aerosols emitted from fire activity across Southeast Asia. We find that the limited nature of measurements in this region leads to large uncertainties that significantly hinder the model representation of these aerosols and their impacts on air quality. As a result, the number of monthly attributable deaths is underestimated by as many as 4500, particularly in March at the peak of the mainland burning season.
Julie Camman, Benjamin Chazeau, Nicolas Marchand, Amandine Durand, Grégory Gille, Ludovic Lanzi, Jean-Luc Jaffrezo, Henri Wortham, and Gaëlle Uzu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3257–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fine particle (PM1) pollution is a major health issue in the city of Marseille, which is subject to numerous pollution sources. Sampling carried out during the summer enabled a fine characterization of the PM1 sources and their oxidative potential, a promising new metric as a proxy for health impact. PM1 came mainly from combustion sources, secondary ammonium sulfate, and organic nitrate, while the oxidative potential of PM1 came from these sources and from resuspended dust in the atmosphere.
Yuemeng Ji, Zhang Shi, Wenjian Li, Jiaxin Wang, Qiuju Shi, Yixin Li, Lei Gao, Ruize Ma, Weijun Lu, Lulu Xu, Yanpeng Gao, Guiying Li, and Taicheng An
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3079–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The formation mechanisms for secondary brown carbon (SBrC) contributed by multifunctional reduced nitrogen compounds (RNCs) remain unclear. Hence, from combined laboratory experiments and quantum chemical calculations, we investigated the heterogeneous reactions of glyoxal (GL) with multifunctional RNCs, which are driven by four-step indirect nucleophilic addition reactions. Our results show a possible missing source for SBrC formation on urban, regional, and global scales.
Elyse A. Pennington, Yuan Wang, Benjamin C. Schulze, Karl M. Seltzer, Jiani Yang, Bin Zhao, Zhe Jiang, Hongru Shi, Melissa Venecek, Daniel Chau, Benjamin N. Murphy, Christopher M. Kenseth, Ryan X. Ward, Havala O. T. Pye, and John H. Seinfeld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2345–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2345-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To assess the air quality in Los Angeles (LA), we improved the CMAQ model by using dynamic traffic emissions and new secondary organic aerosol schemes to represent volatile chemical products. Source apportionment demonstrates that the urban areas of the LA Basin and vicinity are NOx-saturated, with the largest sensitivity of O3 to changes in volatile organic compounds in the urban core. The improvement and remaining issues shed light on the future direction of the model development.
Feifan Yan, Hang Su, Yafang Cheng, Rujin Huang, Hong Liao, Ting Yang, Yuanyuan Zhu, Shaoqing Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Wenbin Kou, Xinran Zeng, Shengnan Xiang, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Yang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2365–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
PM2.5 pollution is a major air quality issue deteriorating human health, and previous studies mostly focus on regions like the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. However, the characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations between these two regions are studied less often. Focusing on the transport corridor region, we identify an interesting seesaw transport phenomenon with stagnant weather conditions, conducive to PM2.5 accumulation over this region, resulting in large health effects.
Prerita Agarwal, David S. Stevenson, and Mathew R. Heal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2239–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollution levels across northern India are amongst some of the worst in the world, with episodic and hazardous haze events. Here, the ability of the WRF-Chem model to predict air quality over northern India is assessed against several datasets. Whilst surface wind speed and particle pollution peaks are over- and underestimated, respectively, meteorology and aerosol trends are adequately captured, and we conclude it is suitable for investigating severe particle pollution events.
George Jordan, Florent Malavelle, Ying Chen, Amy Peace, Eliza Duncan, Daniel G. Partridge, Paul Kim, Duncan Watson-Parris, Toshihiko Takemura, David Neubauer, Gunnar Myhre, Ragnhild Skeie, Anton Laakso, and James Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1939–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2014–15 Holuhraun eruption caused a huge aerosol plume in an otherwise unpolluted region, providing a chance to study how aerosol alters cloud properties. This two-part study uses observations and models to quantify this relationship’s impact on the Earth’s energy budget. Part 1 suggests the models capture the observed spatial and chemical evolution of the plume, yet no model plume is exact. Understanding these differences is key for Part 2, where changes to cloud properties are explored.
Lin Du, Xiaofan Lv, Makroni Lily, Kun Li, and Narcisse Tsona Tchinda
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the pH effect on the reaction of dissolved SO2 with selected organic peroxides. Results show that the formation of organic and/or inorganic sulfate from these peroxides strongly depends on their electronic structures, and these processes are likely to alter the chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in different ways. The rate constants of these reactions exhibit positive pH and temperature dependencies within pH 1–10 and 240–340 K ranges.
Angelo Riccio and Elena Chianese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Starting from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), we provided a novel ensemble statistical post-processing approach to improve their air quality predictions. Our approach is able to provide reliable short-term forecasts of pollutant concentrations, which is a key challenge in supporting national authorities in their tasks related to EU Air Quality Directives, such as planning and reporting the state of air quality to the citizens.
Stella E. I. Manavi and Spyros N. Pandis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 891–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Organic vapors of intermediate volatility have often been neglected as sources of atmospheric organic aerosol. In this work we use a new approach for their simulation and quantify the contribution of these compounds emitted by transportation sources (gasoline and diesel vehicles) to particulate matter over Europe. The estimated secondary organic aerosol levels are on average 60 % higher than predicted by previous approaches. However, these estimates are probably lower limits.
Zhiyuan Li, Kin-Fai Ho, Harry Fung Lee, and Steve Hung Lam Yim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 649–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-649-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-649-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed an integrated model framework for accurate multi-air-pollutant exposure assessments in high-density and high-rise cities. Following the proposed integrated model framework, we established multi-air-pollutant exposure models for four major PM10 chemical species as well as four criteria air pollutants with R2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.93. The proposed framework serves as an important tool for combined exposure assessment in epidemiological studies.
Yujin Jo, Myoseon Jang, Sanghee Han, Azad Madhu, Bonyoung Koo, Yiqin Jia, Zechen Yu, Soontae Kim, and Jinsoo Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 487–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-487-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-487-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CAMx–UNIPAR model simulated the SOA budget formed via multiphase reactions of hydrocarbons and the impact of emissions and climate on SOA characteristics under California’s urban environments during winter 2018. SOA growth was dominated by daytime oxidation of long-chain alkanes and nighttime terpene oxidation with O3 and NO−3 radicals. The spatial distributions of anthropogenic SOA were affected by the northwesterly wind, whereas those of biogenic SOA were insensitive to wind directions.
Peter Huszar, Alvaro Patricio Prieto Perez, Lukáš Bartík, Jan Karlický, and Anahi Villalba-Pradas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 397–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Urbanization transforms rural land into artificial land, while due to human activities, it also introduces a great quantity of emissions. We quantify the impact of urbanization on the final particulate matter pollutant levels by looking not only at these emissions, but also at the way urban land cover influences meteorological conditions, how the removal of pollutants changes due to urban land cover, and how biogenic emissions from vegetation change due to less vegetation in urban areas.
Yinbao Jin, Yiming Liu, Xiao Lu, Xiaoyang Chen, Ao Shen, Haofan Wang, Yinping Cui, Yifei Xu, Siting Li, Jian Liu, Ming Zhang, Yingying Ma, and Qi Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 367–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to address these issues by evaluating eight independent biomass burning (BB) emission inventories (GFED, FINN1.5, FINN2.5 MOS, FINN2.5 MOSVIS, GFAS, FEER, QFED, and IS4FIRES) using the WRF-Chem model and analyzing their impact on aerosol optical properties (AOPs) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) during wildfire events in peninsular Southeast Asia (PSEA) that occurred in March 2019.
Hamza Ahsan, Hailong Wang, Jingbo Wu, Mingxuan Wu, Steven J. Smith, Susanne Bauer, Harrison Suchyta, Dirk Olivié, Gunnar Myhre, Hitoshi Matsui, Huisheng Bian, Jean-François Lamarque, Ken Carslaw, Larry Horowitz, Leighton Regayre, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Vaishali Naik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the impact of the assumed effective height of SO2 injection, SO2 and BC emission seasonality, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions injected as SO4 on climate and chemistry model results. We find that the SO2 injection height has a large impact on surface SO2 concentrations and, in some models, radiative flux. These assumptions are a
hiddensource of inter-model variability and may be leading to bias in some climate model results.
Zhen Peng, Lili Lei, Zhe-Min Tan, Meigen Zhang, Aijun Ding, and Xingxia Kou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14505–14520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Annual PM2.5 emissions in China consistently decreased by about 3% to 5% from 2017 to 2020 with spatial variations and seasonal dependencies. High-temporal-resolution and dynamics-based PM2.5 emission estimates provide quantitative diurnal variations for each season. Significant reductions in PM2.5 emissions in the North China Plain and northeast of China in 2020 were caused by COVID-19.
Stylianos Kakavas, Spyros N. Pandis, and Athanasios Nenes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13555–13564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water uptake from organic species in aerosol can affect the partitioning of semi-volatile inorganic compounds but are not considered in global and chemical transport models. We address this with a version of the PM-CAMx model that considers such organic water effects and use it to carry out 1-year aerosol simulations over the continental US. We show that such organic water impacts can increase dry PM1 levels by up to 2 μg m-3 when RH levels and PM1 concentrations are high.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, 2016. a
Beijing Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau: Beijing Clean Air Action Plan (2013–2017),
http://sthjj.beijing.gov.cn/bjhrb/index/xxgk69/sthjlyzwg/wrygl/603133/index.html (last access: March 2022), 2013. a
Bey, I., Jacob, D. J., Yantosca, R. M., Logan, J. A., Field, B. D., Fiore, A. M., Li, Q., Liu, H. Y., Mickley, L. J., and Schultz, M. G.: Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology: Model description and evaluation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 23073–23095, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000807, 2001. a
Burke, M., Driscoll, A., Heft-Neal, S., Xue, J., Burney, J., and Wara, M.: The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the United States, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2011048118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011048118, 2021. a
Camalier, L., Cox, W., and Dolwick, P.: The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends, Atmos. Environ., 41, 7127–7137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.04.061, 2007. a
Carslaw, D. C., Beevers, S. D., and Tate, J. E.: Modelling and assessing trends in traffic-related emissions using a generalised additive modelling approach, Atmos. Environ., 41, 5289–5299, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.02.032, 2007. a
Chen, L., Zhu, J., Liao, H., Yang, Y., and Yue, X.: Meteorological influences on PM2.5 and O3 trends and associated health burden since China's clean air actions, Sci. Total Environ., 744, 140837, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140837, 2020. a
Chen, Z., Chen, D., Kwan, M.-P., Chen, B., Gao, B., Zhuang, Y., Li, R., and Xu, B.: The control of anthropogenic emissions contributed to 80 % of the decrease in PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing from 2013 to 2017, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13519–13533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13519-2019, 2019. a, b
Cheng, J., Su, J., Cui, T., Li, X., Dong, X., Sun, F., Yang, Y., Tong, D., Zheng, Y., Li, Y., Li, J., Zhang, Q., and He, K.: Dominant role of emission reduction in PM2.5 air quality improvement in Beijing during 2013–2017: a model-based decomposition analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6125–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6125-2019, 2019.
a
Chernozhukov, V., Chetverikov, D., Demirer, M., Duflo, E., Hansen, C., Newey, W., and Robins, J.: Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters, Economet. J., 21, C1–C68, https://doi.org/10.1111/ectj.12097, 2018. a
European Union: Air Quality Standards in the European Union, https://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/quality/standards.htm (last access: March 2022), 2020. a
Fiore, A. M., Dentener, F. J., Wild, O., Cuvelier, C., Schultz, M. G., Hess, P., Textor, C., Schulz, M., Doherty, R. M., Horowitz, L. W., MacKenzie, I. A., Sanderson, M. G., Shindell, D. T., Stevenson, D. S., Szopa, S., Van Dingenen, R., Zeng, G., Atherton, C., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Carmichael, G., Collins, W. J., Duncan, B. N., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Gauss, M., Gong, S., Hauglustaine, D., Holloway, T., Isaksen, I. S. A., Jacob, D. J., Jonson, J. E., Kaminski, J. W., Keating, T. J., Lupu, A., Marmer, E., Montanaro, V., Park, R. J., Pitari, G., Pringle, K. J., Pyle, J. A., Schroeder, S., Vivanco, M. G., Wind, P., Wojcik, G., Wu, S., and Zuber, A.: Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D04301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010816, 2009. a
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan1,3 K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, 2017. a
Grange, S. K., Carslaw, D. C., Lewis, A. C., Boleti, E., and Hueglin, C.: Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6223–6239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6223-2018, 2018. a
Han, H., Liu, J., Shu, L., Wang, T., and Yuan, H.: Local and synoptic meteorological influences on daily variability in summertime surface ozone in eastern China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 203–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-203-2020, 2020. a, b
Hayn, M., Beirle, S., Hamprecht, F. A., Platt, U., Menze, B. H., and Wagner, T.: Analysing spatio-temporal patterns of the global NO2-distribution retrieved from GOME satellite observations using a generalized additive model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6459–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-6459-2009, 2009. a
He, P., Liang, J., Qiu, Y. L., Li, Q., and Xing, B.: Increase in domestic electricity consumption from particulate air pollution, Nature Energy, 5, 985–995, 2020. a
Heald, C. L., Collett Jr., J. L., Lee, T., Benedict, K. B., Schwandner, F. M., Li, Y., Clarisse, L., Hurtmans, D. R., Van Damme, M., Clerbaux, C., Coheur, P.-F., Philip, S., Martin, R. V., and Pye, H. O. T.: Atmospheric ammonia and particulate inorganic nitrogen over the United States, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 10295–10312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10295-2012, 2012. a
Henneman, L. R., Holmes, H. A., Mulholland, J. A., and Russell, A. G.: Meteorological detrending of primary and secondary pollutant concentrations: Method application and evaluation using long-term (2000–2012) data in Atlanta, Atmos. Environ., 119, 201–210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.08.007, 2015. a
Holland, D. M., Principe, P. P., and Sickles, J. E.: Trends in atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen species in the eastern United States for 1989–1995, Atmos. Environ., 33, 37–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00123-X, 1998. a
Keller, C. A., Long, M. S., Yantosca, R. M., Da Silva, A. M., Pawson, S., and Jacob, D. J.: HEMCO v1.0: a versatile, ESMF-compliant component for calculating emissions in atmospheric models, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1409–1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1409-2014, 2014. a
Leung, D. M., Tai, A. P. K., Mickley, L. J., Moch, J. M., van Donkelaar, A., Shen, L., and Martin, R. V.: Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6733–6748, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6733-2018, 2018. a
Li, C., Martin, R. V., Van Donkelaar, A., Boys, B. L., Hammer, M. S., Xu, J. W., Marais, E. A., Reff, A., Strum, M., Ridley, D. A., Crippa, M., Brauer, M., and Zhang, Q.: Trends in Chemical Composition of Global and Regional Population-Weighted Fine Particulate Matter Estimated for 25 Years, Environ. Sci. Technol., 51, 11185–11195, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b02530, 2017. a
Li, K., Jacob, D. J., Shen, L., Lu, X., De Smedt, I., and Liao, H.: Increases in surface ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2019: anthropogenic and meteorological influences, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11423–11433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11423-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Li, M., Liu, H., Geng, G., Hong, C., Liu, F., Song, Y., Tong, D., Zheng, B., Cui, H., Man, H., Zhang, Q., and He, K.: Anthropogenic emission inventories in China: A review, Natl. Sci. Rev., 4, 834–866, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwx150, 2017. a
Lu, X., Zhang, L., Chen, Y., Zhou, M., Zheng, B., Li, K., Liu, Y., Lin, J., Fu, T.-M., and Zhang, Q.: Exploring 2016–2017 surface ozone pollution over China: source contributions and meteorological influences, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8339–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8339-2019, 2019. a
Lu, X., Zhang, L., Wang, X., Gao, M., Li, K., Zhang, Y., Yue, X., and Zhang, Y.: Rapid increases in warm-season surface ozone and resulting health impact in China since 2013, Environ. Sci. Tech. Let., 7, 240–247, 2020. a
Ma, Z., Xu, J., Quan, W., Zhang, Z., Lin, W., and Xu, X.: Significant increase of surface ozone at a rural site, north of eastern China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3969–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3969-2016, 2016. a
McClure, C. D. and Jaffe, D. A.: US particulate matter air quality improves except in wildfire-prone areas, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 7901–7906, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804353115, 2018. a
Otero, N., Sillmann, J., Mar, K. A., Rust, H. W., Solberg, S., Andersson, C., Engardt, M., Bergström, R., Bessagnet, B., Colette, A., Couvidat, F., Cuvelier, C., Tsyro, S., Fagerli, H., Schaap, M., Manders, A., Mircea, M., Briganti, G., Cappelletti, A., Adani, M., D'Isidoro, M., Pay, M.-T., Theobald, M., Vivanco, M. G., Wind, P., Ojha, N., Raffort, V., and Butler, T.: A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12269–12288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, 2018. a
Porter, W. C. and Heald, C. L.: The mechanisms and meteorological drivers of the summertime ozone–temperature relationship, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13367–13381, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13367-2019, 2019. a
Qiu, M., Zigler, C., and Selin, N.: Statistical and machine learning methods for evaluating trends in air quality under changing meteorological conditions [Data set], Zenodo [data set and code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6857259, 2022. a
Qu, L., Liu, S., Ma, L., Zhang, Z., Du, J., Zhou, Y., and Meng, F.: Evaluating the meteorological normalized PM2.5 trend (2014–2019) in the “2+26” region of China using an ensemble learning technique, Environ. Pollut., 266, 115346, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115346, 2020. a
Runge, J., Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M., Mahecha, M. D., Muñoz-Marí, J., van Nes, E. H., Peters, J., Quax, R., Reichstein, M., Scheffer, M., Schölkopf, B., Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J., Zhang, K., and Zscheischler, J.: Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3, 2019. a
Saari, R., Mei, Y., Monier, E., and Garcia-Menendez, F.: Effect of Health-related Uncertainty and Natural Variability on Health Impacts and Co-Benefits of Climate Policy, Environ. Sci. Technol., 53, 1098–1108, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b05094, 2019. a
Shen, L., Mickley, L. J., and Tai, A. P. K.: Influence of synoptic patterns on surface ozone variability over the eastern United States from 1980 to 2012, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10925–10938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10925-2015, 2015. a, b
Sherwen, T., Schmidt, J. A., Evans, M. J., Carpenter, L. J., Großmann, K., Eastham, S. D., Jacob, D. J., Dix, B., Koenig, T. K., Sinreich, R., Ortega, I., Volkamer, R., Saiz-Lopez, A., Prados-Roman, C., Mahajan, A. S., and Ordóñez, C.: Global impacts of tropospheric halogens (Cl, Br, I) on oxidants and composition in GEOS-Chem, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12239–12271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12239-2016, 2016. a
Shi, Z., Song, C., Liu, B., Lu, G., Xu, J., Van Vu, T., Elliott, R. J., Li, W., Bloss, W. J., and Harrison, R. M.: Abrupt but smaller than expected changes in surface air quality attributable to COVID-19 lockdowns, Sci. Adv., 7, eabd6696., https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd6696, 2021. a
State Council of the People's Republic of China: The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (2013–2017), http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-09/12/content_2486773.htm (last access: March 2022), 2013. a
Tai, A. P. K., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Leibensperger, E. M., Zhang, L., Fisher, J. A., and Pye, H. O. T.: Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in the United States: implications for PM2.5 sensitivity to climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3131–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3131-2012, 2012. a
Tian, R., Ma, X., and Zhao, J.: A revised mineral dust emission scheme in GEOS-Chem: improvements in dust simulations over China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4319–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4319-2021, 2021. a
Travis, K. R., Jacob, D. J., Fisher, J. A., Kim, P. S., Marais, E. A., Zhu, L., Yu, K., Miller, C. C., Yantosca, R. M., Sulprizio, M. P., Thompson, A. M., Wennberg, P. O., Crounse, J. D., St. Clair, J. M., Cohen, R. C., Laughner, J. L., Dibb, J. E., Hall, S. R., Ullmann, K., Wolfe, G. M., Pollack, I. B., Peischl, J., Neuman, J. A., and Zhou, X.: Why do models overestimate surface ozone in the Southeast United States?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13561–13577, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13561-2016, 2016. a, b
US Energy Information Agency: Heat wave results in highest U. S. electricity demand since 2017, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40253 (last access: March 2022), 2019. a
US Environmental Protection Agency: National Primary and Secondary Ambient Air Quality Standards, https://ecfr.federalregister.gov/current/title-40/chapter-I/subchapter-C/part-50 (last access: March 2022), 2019. a
US Environmental Protection Agency: Criteria pollutants National Tier 1 for 1970–2020, https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/air-pollutant-emissions-trends-data (last access: May 2021), 2021b. a
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., van Leeuwen, T. T., Chen, Y., Rogers, B. M., Mu, M., van Marle, M. J. E., Morton, D. C., Collatz, G. J., Yokelson, R. J., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017. a
Vu, T. V., Shi, Z., Cheng, J., Zhang, Q., He, K., Wang, S., and Harrison, R. M.: Assessing the impact of clean air action on air quality trends in Beijing using a machine learning technique, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11303–11314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11303-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Wang, Y. X., McElroy, M. B., Jacob, D. J., and Yantosca, R. M.: A nested grid formulation for chemical transport over Asia: Applications to CO, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D22307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005237, 2004. a
Wells, B., Dolwick, P., Eder, B., Evangelista, M., Foley, K., Mannshardt, E., Misenis, C., and Weishampel, A.: Improved estimation of trends in US ozone concentrations adjusted for interannual variability in meteorological conditions, Atmos. Environ., 248, 118234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118234, 2021. a
Wood, S. N.: Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 73, 3–36, 2011. a
Xie, Y., Wang, Y., Dong, W., Wright, J. S., Shen, L., and Zhao, Z.: Evaluating the Response of Summertime Surface Sulfate to Hydroclimate Variations in the Continental United States: Role of Meteorological Inputs in the GEOS-Chem Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 1662–1679, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029693, 2019. a
Xie, Y., Lin, M., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Horowitz, L. W., Lawrence, D. M., Li, F., and Séférian, R.: Tripling of western US particulate pollution from wildfires in a warming climate, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2111372119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111372119, 2022. a
Zhai, S., Jacob, D. J., Wang, X., Shen, L., Li, K., Zhang, Y., Gui, K., Zhao, T., and Liao, H.: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) trends in China, 2013–2018: separating contributions from anthropogenic emissions and meteorology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11031–11041, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11031-2019, 2019. a, b, c
Zhai, S., Jacob, D. J., Wang, X., Liu, Z., Wen, T., Shah, V., Li, K., Moch, J. M., Bates, K. H., Song, S., Shen, L., Zhang, Y., Luo, G., Yu, F., Sun, Y., Wang, L., Qi, M., Tao, J., Gui, K., Xu, H., Zhang, Q., Zhao, T., Wang, Y., Lee, H. C., Choi, H., and Liao, H.: Control of particulate nitrate air pollution in China, Nat. Geosci., 14, 389–395, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00726-z, 2021. a
Zhang, H., Yuan, H., Liu, X., Yu, J., and Jiao, Y.: Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013–2017, Sci. Total Environ., 627, 200–210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.248, 2018. a
Zhang, Q., Zheng, Y., Tong, D., Shao, M., Wang, S., Zhang, Y., Xu, X., Wang, J., He, H., Liu, W., Ding, Y., Lei, Y., Li, J., Wang, Z., Zhang, X., Wang, Y., Cheng, J., Liu, Y., Shi, Q., Yan, L., Geng, G., Hong, C., Li, M., Liu, F., Zheng, B., Cao, J., Ding, A., Gao, J., Fu, Q., Huo, J., Liu, B., Liu, Z., Yang, F., He, K., and Hao, J.: Drivers of improved PM2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 24463–24469, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907956116, 2019. a
Zhang, Y., Vu, T. V., Sun, J., He, J., Shen, X., Lin, W., Zhang, X., Zhong, J., Gao, W., Wang, Y., Fu, T. M., Ma, Y., Li, W., and Shi, Z.: Significant Changes in Chemistry of Fine Particles in Wintertime Beijing from 2007 to 2017: Impact of Clean Air Actions, Environ. Sci. Technol., 54, 1344–1352, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b04678, 2020.
a
Zhao, Y., Zhang, K., Xu, X., Shen, H., Zhu, X., Zhang, Y., Hu, Y., and Shen, G.: Substantial Changes in Nitrate Oxide and Ozone after Excluding Meteorological Impacts during the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China, Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett., 7, 402–408, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00304, 2020. a
Zheng, B., Tong, D., Li, M., Liu, F., Hong, C., Geng, G., Li, H., Li, X., Peng, L., Qi, J., Yan, L., Zhang, Y., Zhao, H., Zheng, Y., He, K., and Zhang, Q.: Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14095–14111, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14095-2018, 2018. a
Zhong, Q., Ma, J., Shen, G., Shen, H., Zhu, X., Yun, X., Meng, W., Cheng, H., Liu, J., Li, B., Wang, X., Zeng, E. Y., Guan, D., and Tao, S.: Distinguishing Emission-Associated Ambient Air PM2.5 Concentrations and Meteorological Factor-Induced Fluctuations, Environ. Sci. Technol., 52, 10416–10425, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b02685, 2018. a
Zurbenko, I. G.: Detecting and tracking changes in ozone air quality, Air and Waste, 44, 1089–1092, https://doi.org/10.1080/10473289.1994.10467303, 1994. a
Short summary
Evaluating impacts of emission changes on air quality requires accounting for meteorological variability. Many studies use simple regression methods to correct for meteorology, but little is known about their performance. Using cases in the US and China, we show that widely used regression models do not perform well and can lead to biased estimates of emission-driven trends. We propose a novel machine learning method with lower bias and provide recommendations to policymakers and researchers.
Evaluating impacts of emission changes on air quality requires accounting for meteorological...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint