Articles | Volume 22, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10551-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10551-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Statistical and machine learning methods for evaluating trends in air quality under changing meteorological conditions
Minghao Qiu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
current address: Earth System Science Department, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
Corwin Zigler
Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, USA
Noelle E. Selin
Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Climate emulators allow for rapid projections without the computational costs associated with full-scale climate models. Here, we outline a framework to compare a variety of emulation techniques both theoretically and practically through a series of stress tests that expose common sources of emulator error. Our results help clarify which emulators are best suited for different tasks and show how future climate scenarios can be used to support emulator design.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We developed a fast and accurate computer tool that predicts how air pollution levels will change around the world under different climate and policy choices. Using machine learning and real model data, our tool can estimate changes in harmful fine particulate pollution in seconds instead of thousands of hours. This makes it easier for researchers and policymakers to explore future air quality and health impacts under a wide range of scenarios.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
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This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
William Atkinson, Sebastian D. Eastham, Y.-H. Henry Chen, Jennifer Morris, Sergey Paltsev, C. Adam Schlosser, and Noelle E. Selin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7767–7789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7767-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7767-2022, 2022
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Understanding policy effects on human-caused air pollutant emissions is key for assessing related health impacts. We develop a flexible scenario tool that combines updated emissions data sets, long-term economic modeling, and comprehensive technology pathways to clarify the impacts of climate and air quality policies. Results show the importance of both policy levers in the future to prevent long-term emission increases from offsetting near-term air quality improvements from existing policies.
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Short summary
Evaluating impacts of emission changes on air quality requires accounting for meteorological variability. Many studies use simple regression methods to correct for meteorology, but little is known about their performance. Using cases in the US and China, we show that widely used regression models do not perform well and can lead to biased estimates of emission-driven trends. We propose a novel machine learning method with lower bias and provide recommendations to policymakers and researchers.
Evaluating impacts of emission changes on air quality requires accounting for meteorological...
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