Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 May 2021
Research article |
| 18 May 2021
| 18 May 2021
Air traffic and contrail changes over Europe during COVID-19: a model study
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpaffenhofen, Germany
Ian Poll
Aerospace Engineering, Cranfield University, Cranfield, UK
Roger Teoh
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Rainer Koelle
Performance Review Unit, EUROCONTROL, 1130 Brussels, Belgium
Enrico Spinielli
Performance Review Unit, EUROCONTROL, 1130 Brussels, Belgium
Jarlath Molloy
NATS, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire, PO15 7FL, UK
George S. Koudis
NATS, Whiteley, Fareham, Hampshire, PO15 7FL, UK
Robert Baumann
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpaffenhofen, Germany
Luca Bugliaro
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpaffenhofen, Germany
Marc Stettler
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Christiane Voigt
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, 82234 Oberpaffenhofen, Germany
Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg-University, Mainz, Germany
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- COVID-19: Poisoning by Military Solar Geoengineering Operations F. Deruelle https://doi.org/10.14738/aivp.1305.19468
- Segregated supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to reduce contrail energy forcing – demonstration and potentials G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jatrs.2024.100049
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- The influence of extratropical cross-tropopause mixing on the correlation between ozone and sulfate aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere P. Joppe et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7499-2024
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- Research on High Technology-Importing Countries and the Profitability of European Zone ANSPs: A Combined Approach with Hybrid CRITIC-TOPSIS Method and Panel Regression Model O. Ölçen & S. Alnıpak https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2026.44.1516554
- Sustainable aviation in the context of the Paris Agreement: A review of prospective scenarios and their technological mitigation levers S. Delbecq et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paerosci.2023.100920
- Feasibility of integrating multiple climate impact estimation models to enhance confidence in environmentally-friendly aircraft trajectory optimization A. Simorgh & M. Soler https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2025.101692
- Aircraft Engine Particulate Matter and Gaseous Emissions from Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Results from Ground-Based Measurements During the Nasa/Dlr Campaign Eclif2/Nd-Max T. Schripp et al. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4045444
- Geometrical and optical properties of cirrus clouds in Barcelona, Spain: analysis with the two-way transmittance method of 4 years of lidar measurements C. Gil-Díaz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1197-2024
- The effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns on the composition of the troposphere as seen by In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) at Frankfurt H. Clark et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16237-2021
- A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis S. Geraedts et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad11ab
- Reduced ice number concentrations in contrails from low-aromatic biofuel blends T. Bräuer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16817-2021
- Decreased Aviation Leads to Increased Ice Crystal Number and a Positive Radiative Effect in Cirrus Clouds J. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000546
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- Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation L. Megill & V. Grewe https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
- Black carbon aerosol reductions during COVID-19 confinement quantified by aircraft measurements over Europe O. Krüger et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8683-2022
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- Hydroprocessing of fossil fuel-based aviation kerosene – Technology options and climate impact mitigation potentials G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100259
- Uncertainties in mitigating aviation non-CO2 emissions for climate and air quality using hydrocarbon fuels D. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D3EA00091E
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- Design Principles for a Contrail-Minimizing Trial in the North Atlantic J. Molloy et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9070375
- Climatology of Cirrus Clouds over Observatory of Haute-Provence (France) Using Multivariate Analyses on Lidar Profiles F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101261
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- Enhanced sulfur in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in spring 2020 L. Tomsche et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15135-2022
- Reduced contrail radiative effect for fleets with low soot and water vapour emissions M. Rubin-Zuzic et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100353
- Water vapor transport observed at a coastal Mediterranean site during the summer of 2021 and compared with ERA5 F. Madonna et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36040-0
- Investigating an indirect aviation effect on mid-latitude cirrus clouds – linking lidar-derived optical properties to in situ measurements S. Groß et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8369-2023
- Measurement report: In-flight and ground-based measurements of nitrogen oxide emissions from latest-generation jet engines and 100 % sustainable aviation fuel T. Harlass et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11807-2024
- Climate-optimized flight planning can effectively reduce the environmental footprint of aviation in Europe at low operational costs A. Simorgh & M. Soler https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02031-8
- Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 R. Teoh et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
- Impact of COVID‐19‐Related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails Over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes D. Duda et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037554
- Robust 4D climate-optimal aircraft trajectory planning under weather-induced uncertainties: Free-routing airspace A. Simorgh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2024.104196
48 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The climate impact of COVID-19-induced contrail changes A. Gettelman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9405-2021
- Substantial aircraft contrail formation at low soot emission levels C. Voigt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10286-0
- Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations J. Low et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
- Targeted use of paraffinic kerosene: Potentials and implications G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100279
- Numerical simulation of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on tropospheric composition and aerosol radiative forcing in Europe S. Reifenberg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022
- Lidar observations of cirrus cloud properties with CALIPSO from midlatitudes towards high-latitudes Q. Li & S. Groß https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16657-2025
- Changes in cirrus cloud properties and occurrence over Europe during the COVID-19-caused air traffic reduction Q. Li & S. Groß https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14573-2021
- Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0 Z. Engberg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
- COVID-19: Poisoning by Military Solar Geoengineering Operations F. Deruelle https://doi.org/10.14738/aivp.1305.19468
- Segregated supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to reduce contrail energy forcing – demonstration and potentials G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jatrs.2024.100049
- Variability of ice supersaturated regions at flight altitudes: evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis using IAGOS in situ measurements K. Hildebrandt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6449-2026
- The influence of extratropical cross-tropopause mixing on the correlation between ozone and sulfate aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere P. Joppe et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7499-2024
- Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis K. Wolf et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025
- Research on High Technology-Importing Countries and the Profitability of European Zone ANSPs: A Combined Approach with Hybrid CRITIC-TOPSIS Method and Panel Regression Model O. Ölçen & S. Alnıpak https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2026.44.1516554
- Sustainable aviation in the context of the Paris Agreement: A review of prospective scenarios and their technological mitigation levers S. Delbecq et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paerosci.2023.100920
- Feasibility of integrating multiple climate impact estimation models to enhance confidence in environmentally-friendly aircraft trajectory optimization A. Simorgh & M. Soler https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2025.101692
- Aircraft Engine Particulate Matter and Gaseous Emissions from Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Results from Ground-Based Measurements During the Nasa/Dlr Campaign Eclif2/Nd-Max T. Schripp et al. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4045444
- Geometrical and optical properties of cirrus clouds in Barcelona, Spain: analysis with the two-way transmittance method of 4 years of lidar measurements C. Gil-Díaz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1197-2024
- The effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns on the composition of the troposphere as seen by In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) at Frankfurt H. Clark et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16237-2021
- A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis S. Geraedts et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad11ab
- Reduced ice number concentrations in contrails from low-aromatic biofuel blends T. Bräuer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16817-2021
- Decreased Aviation Leads to Increased Ice Crystal Number and a Positive Radiative Effect in Cirrus Clouds J. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000546
- Machine learning for improvement of upper-tropospheric relative humidity in ERA5 weather model data Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025
- Satellite observations of seasonality and long-term trends in cirrus cloud properties over Europe: investigation of possible aviation impacts Q. Li & S. Groß https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15963-2022
- Investigating the limiting aircraft-design-dependent and environmental factors of persistent contrail formation L. Megill & V. Grewe https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4131-2025
- Black carbon aerosol reductions during COVID-19 confinement quantified by aircraft measurements over Europe O. Krüger et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8683-2022
- Aircraft engine particulate matter emissions from sustainable aviation fuels: Results from ground-based measurements during the NASA/DLR campaign ECLIF2/ND-MAX T. Schripp et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2022.124764
- Contrail coverage over the United States before and during the COVID-19 pandemic V. Meijer et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac26f0
- Hydroprocessing of fossil fuel-based aviation kerosene – Technology options and climate impact mitigation potentials G. Quante et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2024.100259
- Uncertainties in mitigating aviation non-CO2 emissions for climate and air quality using hydrocarbon fuels D. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D3EA00091E
- Differences in microphysical properties of cirrus at high and mid-latitudes E. De La Torre Castro et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13167-2023
- Secondary PM2.5 decreases significantly less than NO2 emission reductions during COVID lockdown in Germany V. Balamurugan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7105-2022
- Influence of temperature and humidity on contrail formation regions in the general circulation model EMAC: a spring case study P. Peter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025
- Design Principles for a Contrail-Minimizing Trial in the North Atlantic J. Molloy et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9070375
- Climatology of Cirrus Clouds over Observatory of Haute-Provence (France) Using Multivariate Analyses on Lidar Profiles F. Mandija et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101261
- Distribution and morphology of non-persistent contrail and persistent contrail formation areas in ERA5 K. Wolf et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024
- Weather Variability Induced Uncertainty of Contrail Radiative Forcing L. Wilhelm et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8110332
- Observations of microphysical properties and radiative effects of a contrail cirrus outbreak over the North Atlantic Z. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1941-2023
- Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021 R. Teoh et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024
- Enhanced sulfur in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in spring 2020 L. Tomsche et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15135-2022
- Reduced contrail radiative effect for fleets with low soot and water vapour emissions M. Rubin-Zuzic et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100353
- Water vapor transport observed at a coastal Mediterranean site during the summer of 2021 and compared with ERA5 F. Madonna et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36040-0
- Investigating an indirect aviation effect on mid-latitude cirrus clouds – linking lidar-derived optical properties to in situ measurements S. Groß et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8369-2023
- Measurement report: In-flight and ground-based measurements of nitrogen oxide emissions from latest-generation jet engines and 100 % sustainable aviation fuel T. Harlass et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11807-2024
- Climate-optimized flight planning can effectively reduce the environmental footprint of aviation in Europe at low operational costs A. Simorgh & M. Soler https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02031-8
- Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 R. Teoh et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
- Impact of COVID‐19‐Related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails Over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes D. Duda et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037554
- Robust 4D climate-optimal aircraft trajectory planning under weather-induced uncertainties: Free-routing airspace A. Simorgh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2024.104196
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Oct 2026
Short summary
The roughly 70 % reduction of air traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic from March–August 2020 compared to 2019 provides a test case for the relationship between air traffic density, contrails, and their radiative forcing of climate change. This paper investigates the induced traffic and contrail changes in a model study. Besides strong weather changes, the model results indicate aviation-induced cirrus and top-of-the-atmosphere irradiance changes, which can be tested with observations.
The roughly 70 % reduction of air traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic from March–August 2020...
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