Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 18 Feb 2021
| 18 Feb 2021
Sensitivity of stratospheric water vapour to variability in tropical tropopause temperatures and large-scale transport
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Peter H. Haynes
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Amanda C. Maycock
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Neal Butchart
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Andrew C. Bushell
Met Office, Exeter, UK
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 317–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-317-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-317-2026, 2026
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We used climate models to test how constant El Niño and La Niña ocean conditions shape the Madden-Julian Oscillation during northern winter. El Niño made this weather pattern move faster, while La Niña slowed it down. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, a repeating wind pattern high in the atmosphere, had little effect. This shows that long-lasting ocean conditions mainly drive the changes we found.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, James M. Haywood, Matthew Henry, Andy Jones, Ben Kravitz, Walker R. Lee, Douglas G. MacMartin, Amanda C. Maycock, Takashi Sekiya, Shingo Watanabe, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-310, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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An assessment of the potential impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, a proposed method to offset global warming, on stratospheric ozone projections over the 21st century using the new multi-model GeoMIP G6-1.5K-SAI experiment. We discuss drivers of the responses, identify areas of model agreement and disagreement and sources of uncertainty. Our results highlight the need to assess any projected SAI impacts in wider strategy and scenario dimension using a multi-model framework.
Luisa E. Avilés-Podgurski, Patrick Martineau, Hua Lu, Ayako Yamamoto, Amanda C. Maycock, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Anna E. Hogg, Grzegorz Muszynski, and Andrew Fleming
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Hiroaki Naoe, Jorge L. García-Franco, Chang-Hyun Park, Mario Rodrigo, Froila M. Palmeiro, Federico Serva, Masakazu Taguchi, Kohei Yoshida, James A. Anstey, Javier García-Serrano, Seok-Woo Son, Yoshio Kawatani, Neal Butchart, Kevin Hamilton, Chih-Chieh Chen, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Clara Orbe, Scott Osprey, Mijeong Park, Jadwiga H. Richter, Stefan Versick, and Shingo Watanabe
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Links between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and atmospheric circulations in the tropics, subtropics, and polar regions, as well as their modulation by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, are examined through model experiments. The QBO–polar vortex connection is reproduced by a multi-model ensemble at about half the observed amplitude. Weak performance of QBO signals in these regions is likely due to unrealistically weak QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere.
Weronika Osmolska, Charles Chemel, Amanda Maycock, and Paul Field
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1221–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1221-2025, 2025
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Extreme cold temperatures have widespread impacts on health, agriculture, infrastructures and the economy. We develop for the first time a methodology to build a catalogue of cold spell events, tracked in space and time. This catalogue is used to examine the behaviour of cold spells and its climatology. The results reveal specific pathways through which cold air affect midlatitudes.
Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Shingo Watanabe, Masakazu Taguchi, Federico Serva, James A. Anstey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Neal Butchart, Clara Orbe, Scott M. Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Dillon Elsbury, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Froila M. Palmeiro, Mijeong Park, Stefan Versick, and Kohei Yoshida
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1045–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1045-2025, 2025
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratospheric mean winds has been relatively steady over the 7 decades it has been observed, but there are always cycle-to-cycle variations. This study used several global atmospheric models to investigate systematic modulation of the QBO by the El Niño/La Niña cycle. All models simulated shorter periods during El Niño, in agreement with observations. By contrast, the models disagreed even on the sign of the El Niño effect on QBO amplitude.
Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 595–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, 2025
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The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.
Martin Richard Willett, Melissa Brooks, Andrew Bushell, Paul Earnshaw, Samantha Smith, Lorenzo Tomassini, Martin Best, Ian Boutle, Jennifer Brooke, John M. Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Catherine Hardacre, Andrew J. Hartley, Alan Hewitt, Ben Johnson, Adrian Lock, Andy Malcolm, Jane Mulcahy, Eike Müller, Heather Rumbold, Gabriel G. Rooney, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Annelize van Niekerk, Andy Wiltshire, and Michael Whitall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1829, 2025
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA8GL9, which includes improvements to the represenation of convection and other physical processes. GA8GL9 is used for operational weather prediction in the UK and forms the basis for the next GA and GL configuration.
Amanda C. Maycock, Christine M. McKenna, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Jacob Perez, and Julia F. Lockwood
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Winter North Atlantic storms cause significant financial losses and damage in Europe. This study shows that modes of seasonal large-scale climate variability called the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern modulate the exposure to cyclone related extreme wind, precipitation and storm surge hazards across many parts of Europe. The results have the potential to be combined with skilful seasonal climate forecasts of climate modes to inform the insurance sector.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
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This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Rémy Bonnet, Christine M. McKenna, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, 2024
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Climate models underestimate multidecadal winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Understanding the origin of this weak variability is important for making reliable climate projections. We use multi-model climate simulations to explore statistical relationships with drivers that may contribute to NAO variability. We find a relationship between modelled stratosphere–troposphere coupling and multidecadal NAO variability, offering an avenue to improve the simulation of NAO variability.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
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Timothy P. Banyard, Corwin J. Wright, Scott M. Osprey, Neil P. Hindley, Gemma Halloran, Lawrence Coy, Paul A. Newman, Neal Butchart, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
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In 2019/2020, the tropical stratospheric wind phenomenon known as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was disrupted for only the second time in the historical record. This was poorly forecasted, and we want to understand why. We used measurements from the first Doppler wind lidar in space, Aeolus, to observe the disruption in an unprecedented way. Our results reveal important differences between Aeolus and the ERA5 reanalysis that affect the timing of the disruption's onset and its evolution.
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster
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There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places. Complex models can study these impacts but take a long time to run, even on powerful computers. Simple methods can be used to reduce this time by estimating the complex model output, but these are not perfect. This study looks at the accuracy of one of these techniques, showing that there are limitations to its use, especially for low-emission future scenarios.
Neal Butchart
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1237–1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, 2022
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In recent years, it has emerged that there is an affinity between stratospheric variability and surface events. Waves from the troposphere interacting with the mean flow drive much of the variability in the polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warmings and tropical quasi-biennial oscillation. Here we review the historical evolution of established knowledge of the stratosphere's global structure and dynamical variability, along with recent advances and theories, and identify outstanding challenges.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
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The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
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Short summary
This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing each of the two key influences on water vapour entry to the stratosphere. Presenting modified trajectory models, the results of this paper show temperatures dominate on annual and inter-annual variations; however, transport has a significant effect in reducing the annual cycle maximum. Furthermore, sub-seasonal variations in temperature have an important overall influence.
This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing...
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