Articles | Volume 21, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 21 Jul 2021
| 21 Jul 2021
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Birkeland Centre for Space Science, Department of Physics and Technology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Birkeland Centre for Space Science, Department of Physics and Technology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Christine Smith-Johnsen
Birkeland Centre for Space Science, Department of Physics and Technology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Pavle Arsenovic
EMPA Swiss Federal Laboratories for Material Science and Technology, Zürich, Switzerland
Daniel R. Marsh
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Related authors
Ville Maliniemi, Pavle Arsenovic, Annika Seppälä, and Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8137–8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on Antarctic stratospheric ozone chemistry over the whole 20th century. We find a significant increase of reactive nitrogen due to EP, which can deplete ozone via a catalytic reaction. Furthermore, significant modulation of active chlorine is obtained related to EPP, which impacts ozone depletion by both active chlorine and EPP. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of ozone chemistry during the CFC era.
Gregory Cooke, Dan Marsh, Catherine Walsh, Felix Sainsbury-Martinez, and Marrick Braam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1133, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
During the Archean eon (4–2.4 Gyr ago), Earth's atmosphere lacked oxygen (O2) but contained nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and methane. As cyanobacteria evolved, they produced O2, while hydrogen (H) escaped, making Earth more oxidized. Around 2.4 billion years ago, oxygen levels rose, limiting hydrogen loss. Using 3D computer simulations, we found that oxygen concentrations affect the upward diffusion of water vapor (H2O). We therefore quantify the rate of hydrogen escape as O2 changes.
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain, contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate, for the first time, the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12133–12141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Metal layers occur in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region 80–120 km from the ablation of cosmic dust. Nonmigrating diurnal tides are persistent global oscillations. We investigate nonmigrating diurnal tidal variations in metal layers using satellite observations and global climate model simulations; these have not been studied previously due to the limitations of measurements. The nonmigrating diurnal tides in temperature are strongly linked to the corresponding change in metal layers.
Connor J. Clayton, Daniel R. Marsh, Steven T. Turnock, Ailish M. Graham, Kirsty J. Pringle, Carly L. Reddington, Rajesh Kumar, and James B. McQuaid
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10717–10740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that strong climate mitigation could improve air quality in Europe; however, less ambitious mitigation does not result in these co-benefits. We use a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model. This allows us to demonstrate how this varies across European countries and analyse the underlying chemistry. This may help policy-facing researchers understand which sectors and regions need to be prioritised to achieve strong air quality co-benefits of climate mitigation.
Miriam Sinnhuber, Christina Arras, Stefan Bender, Bernd Funke, Hanli Liu, Daniel R. Marsh, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Monika E. Szelag, and Jan Maik Wissing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Formation of nitric oxide NO in the upper atmosphere varies with solar activity. Observations show that it starts a chain of processes in the entire atmosphere affecting the ozone layer and climate system. This is often underestimated in models. We compare five models which show large differences in simulated NO. Analysis of results point out problems related to the oxygen balance, and to the impact of atmospheric waves on dynamics. Both must be modeled well to reproduce the downward coupling.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4401–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires one however to include non-local thermodynamic equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, which cannot be afforded by climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient, accurate and very fast (~50 µs) parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the pre-industrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
John M. C. Plane, Jörg Gumbel, Konstantinos S. Kalogerakis, Daniel R. Marsh, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13255–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mesosphere or lower thermosphere region of the atmosphere borders the edge of space. It is subject to extreme ultraviolet photons and charged particles from the Sun and atmospheric gravity waves from below, which tend to break in this region. The pressure is very low, which facilitates chemistry involving species in excited states, and this is also the region where cosmic dust ablates and injects various metals. The result is a unique and exotic chemistry.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Mingjiao Jia, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Daniel R. Marsh, Jonas Hedin, Jörg Gumbel, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11485–11504, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a study on the climatology of the metal sodium layer in the upper atmosphere from the ground-based measurements obtained from a lidar network, the Odin satellite measurements, and a global model of meteoric sodium in the atmosphere. Comprehensively, comparisons show good agreement and some discrepancies between ground-based observations, satellite measurements, and global model simulations.
Ville Maliniemi, Pavle Arsenovic, Annika Seppälä, and Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8137–8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on Antarctic stratospheric ozone chemistry over the whole 20th century. We find a significant increase of reactive nitrogen due to EP, which can deplete ozone via a catalytic reaction. Furthermore, significant modulation of active chlorine is obtained related to EPP, which impacts ozone depletion by both active chlorine and EPP. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of ozone chemistry during the CFC era.
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga V. Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppälä, Kazuo Shiokawa, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 39, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Han-Li Liu, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15619–15630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Metal layers occur in the MLT region (80–120 km) from the ablation of cosmic dust. The latest lidar observations show these metals can reach a height approaching 200 km, which is challenging to explain. We have developed the first global simulation incorporating the full life cycle of metal atoms and ions. The model results compare well with lidar and satellite observations of the seasonal and diurnal variation of the metals and demonstrate the importance of ion mass and ion-neutral coupling.
Michael Kiefer, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Anne Kleinert, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4111–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An improved dataset of vertical temperature profiles of the Earth's atmosphere in the altitude range 5–70 km is presented. These profiles are derived from measurements of the MIPAS instrument onboard ESA's Envisat satellite. The overall improvements are based on upgrades in the input data and several improvements in the data processing approach. Both of these are discussed, and an extensive error discussion is included. Enhancements of the new dataset are demonstrated by means of examples.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Jianfei Wu, Xinan Yue, Wuhu Feng, Yutian Chi, Daniel R. Marsh, Hanli Liu, Xiankang Dou, and John M. C. Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4219–4230, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A long-standing mystery of metal ions within Es layers in the Earth's upper atmosphere is the marked seasonal dependence, with a summer maximum and a winter minimum. We report a large-scale winter-to-summer transport of metal ions from 6-year multi-satellite observations and worldwide ground-based stations. A global atmospheric circulation is responsible for the phenomenon. Our results emphasise the effect of this atmospheric circulation on the transport of composition in the upper atmosphere.
Noora Partamies, Fasil Tesema, Emma Bland, Erkka Heino, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, and Erlend Kallelid
Ann. Geophys., 39, 69–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-69-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-69-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
About 200 nights of substorm activity have been analysed for their magnetic disturbance magnitude and the level of cosmic radio noise absorption. We show that substorms with a single expansion phase have limited lifetimes and spatial extents. Starting from magnetically quiet conditions, the strongest absorption occurs after 1 to 2 nights of substorm activity. This prolonged activity is thus required to accelerate particles to energies, which may affect the atmospheric chemistry.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Fasil Tesema, Noora Partamies, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, and Derek McKay
Ann. Geophys., 38, 1191–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present the ionization level from EISCAT radar experiments and cosmic noise absorption level
from KAIRA riometer observations during pulsating auroras. We found thick layers of ionization that reach down
to 70 km (harder precipitation) and higher cosmic noise absorption during patchy pulsating aurora than
during amorphous pulsating and patchy auroras.
Niilo Kalakoski, Pekka T. Verronen, Annika Seppälä, Monika E. Szeląg, Antti Kero, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8923–8938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8923-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on middle atmosphere chemistry were studied using the WACCM-D chemistry–climate model, including an improved representation of lower ionosphere ion chemistry. This study includes 66 events in the years 1989–2012 and uses a statistical approach to determine the impact of the improved chemistry scheme. The differences shown highlight the importance of ion chemistry in models used to study energetic particle precipitation.
Pekka T. Verronen, Daniel R. Marsh, Monika E. Szeląg, and Niilo Kalakoski
Ann. Geophys., 38, 833–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the first to study how the representation of the magnetic-local-time (MLT) dependency of electron precipitation impacts middle-atmospheric-ozone response on monthly timescales. We use a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model with detailed lower-ionospheric chemistry for an advanced representation of atmospheric impacts of electron forcing. We find that the use of daily zonal-mean electron forcing will provide an accurate ozone response in long-term climate simulations.
Tao Yuan, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3769–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3769-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3769-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Na layer in the upper atmosphere is very sensitive to solar radiation and varies considerably during sunrise and sunset. In this paper, we use the lidar observations and an advanced model to investigate this process. We found that the variation is mostly due to the changes in several photochemical reactions involving Na compounds, especially NaHCO3. We also reveal that the Fe layer in the same region changes more quickly than the Na layer due to a faster reaction rate of FeOH to sunlight.
David E. Siskind, McArthur Jones Jr., Douglas P. Drob, John P. McCormack, Mark E. Hervig, Daniel R. Marsh, Martin G. Mlynczak, Scott M. Bailey, Astrid Maute, and Nicholas J. Mitchell
Ann. Geophys., 37, 37–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-37-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-37-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use data from two NASA satellites and a general circulation model of the upper atmosphere to elucidate the key factors governing the abundance and diurnal variation of nitric oxide (NO) at near-solar minimum conditions and low latitudes. This has been difficult to do previously, because NO data are typically taken from satellites in sun-synchronous orbits, meaning that they only acquire data in fixed local times. We overcome this limitation through model simulations of the NO diurnal cycle.
Tao Li, Chao Ban, Xin Fang, Jing Li, Zhaopeng Wu, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Jiangang Xiong, Daniel R. Marsh, Michael J. Mills, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11683–11695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 154 nights of observations by the USTC Na temperature and wind lidar (32° N, 117° E) suggest significant seasonal variability in the mesopause. Chemistry plays an important role in Na atom formation. More than half of the observed gravity wave (GW) momentum flux (MF), whose divergence determines the GW forcing, is induced by short-period (10 min–2 h) waves. The anticorrelation between MF and zonal wind (U) suggests strong filtering of short-period GWs by semiannual oscillation U.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Koen Hendrickx, Linda Megner, Daniel R. Marsh, and Christine Smith-Johnsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9075–9089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9075-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9075-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The mechanisms that produce, destroy and transport nitric oxide (NO) in the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere are investigated in AIM-SOFIE satellite observations and compared to SD-WACCM simulations. During winter, NO concentrations are most similar while the altitude of maximum NO number densities is most separated. Even though the rate of descent is similar in both datasets, the simulated descending NO flux is too low in concentration, which reflects a missing source of NO.
Erkki Kyrölä, Monika E. Andersson, Pekka T. Verronen, Marko Laine, Simo Tukiainen, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5001–5019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5001-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5001-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we compare three key constituents of the middle atmosphere (ozone, NO2, and NO3) from the GOMOS satellite instrument with the WACCM model. We find that in the stratosphere (below 50 km) ozone differences are very small, but in the mesosphere large deviations are found. GOMOS and WACCM NO2 agree reasonably well except in the polar areas. These differences can be connected to the solar particle storms. For NO3, WACCM results agree with GOMOS with a very high correlation.
Pavle Arsenovic, Eugene Rozanov, Julien Anet, Andrea Stenke, Werner Schmutz, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3469–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
Martin P. Langowski, Christian von Savigny, John P. Burrows, Didier Fussen, Erin C. M. Dawkins, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2989–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2989-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2989-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Meteoric metals form metal layers in the upper atmosphere anandplay a role in the formation of middle-atmospheric clouds and aerosols. However, the total metal influx rate is not well known. Global Na datasets from measurements and a model are available, which had not been compared yet on a global scale until this paper. Overall the agreement is good, and many differences between measurements are also found in the model simulations. However, the modeled layer altitude is too low.
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
Bernd Funke, William Ball, Stefan Bender, Angela Gardini, V. Lynn Harvey, Alyn Lambert, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, Katharina Meraner, Holger Nieder, Sanna-Mari Päivärinta, Kristell Pérot, Cora E. Randall, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Hauke Schmidt, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriele P. Stiller, Natalia D. Tsvetkova, Pekka T. Verronen, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Vladimir Yushkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3573–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations from eight atmospheric models have been compared to tracer and temperature observations from seven satellite instruments in order to evaluate the energetic particle indirect effect (EPP IE) during the perturbed northern hemispheric (NH) winter 2008/2009. Models are capable to reproduce the EPP IE in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The results emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events.
Tamás Kovács, Wuhu Feng, Anna Totterdill, John M. C. Plane, Sandip Dhomse, Juan Carlos Gómez-Martín, Gabriele P. Stiller, Florian J. Haenel, Christopher Smith, Piers M. Forster, Rolando R. García, Daniel R. Marsh, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 883–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a very potent greenhouse gas, which is present in the atmosphere only through its industrial use, for example as an electrical insulator. To estimate accurately the impact of SF6 emissions on climate we need to know how long it persists in the atmosphere before being removed. Previous estimates of the SF6 lifetime indicate a large degree of uncertainty. Here we use a detailed atmospheric model to calculate a current best estimate of the SF6 lifetime.
Tamás Kovács, John M. C. Plane, Wuhu Feng, Tibor Nagy, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Pekka T. Verronen, Monika E. Andersson, David A. Newnham, Mark A. Clilverd, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3123–3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3123-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3123-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study was completed on D-region atmospheric model development. The sophisticated 3-D Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the 1-D Sodynkalä Ion and Neutral Chemistry Model (SIC) were combined in order to provide a detailed, accurate model (WACCM-SIC) that considers the processes taking place in solar proton events. The original SIC model was reduced by mechanism reduction, which provided an accurate sub-mechanism (rSIC, WACCM-rSIC) of the original model.
Simone Tilmes, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Louisa K. Emmons, Doug E. Kinnison, Dan Marsh, Rolando R. Garcia, Anne K. Smith, Ryan R. Neely, Andrew Conley, Francis Vitt, Maria Val Martin, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Isobel Simpson, Don R. Blake, and Nicola Blake
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1853–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The state of the art Community Earth System Model, CESM1 CAM4-chem has been used to perform reference and sensitivity simulations as part of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifics of the model and details regarding the setup of the simulations are described. In additions, the main behavior of the model, including selected chemical species have been evaluated with climatological datasets. This paper is therefore a references for studies that use the provided model results.
Charles H. Jackman, Daniel R. Marsh, Douglas E. Kinnison, Christopher J. Mertens, and Eric L. Fleming
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5853–5866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Two global models were used to investigate the impact of galactic cosmic ray (GCRs) on the atmosphere over the 1960-2010 time period. The primary impact of the naturally occurring GCRs on ozone was found to be due to their production of NOx and this impact varies with the atmospheric chlorine loading, sulfate aerosol loading, and solar cycle variation. GCR-caused decreases of annual average global total ozone were computed to be 0.2 % or less.
N. Huneeus, S. Basart, S. Fiedler, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Benedetti, J. Mulcahy, E. Terradellas, C. Pérez García-Pando, G. Pejanovic, S. Nickovic, P. Arsenovic, M. Schulz, E. Cuevas, J. M. Baldasano, J. Pey, S. Remy, and B. Cvetkovic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4967–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Five dust models are evaluated regarding their performance in predicting an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe (NE). Models predict the onset and evolution of the event for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences in lead times for each model. The models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards NE. This is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical dust distribution and horizontal wind.
M. P. Langowski, C. von Savigny, J. P. Burrows, W. Feng, J. M. C. Plane, D. R. Marsh, D. Janches, M. Sinnhuber, A. C. Aikin, and P. Liebing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 273–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Global concentration fields of Mg and Mg+ in the Earth's upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (70-150km) are presented. These are retrieved from SCIAMACHY/Envisat satellite grating spectrometer measurements in limb viewing geometry between 2008 and 2012.
These were compared with WACCM-Mg model results and a large fraction of the available measurement results for these species, and an interpretation of the results is done. The variation of these species during NLC presence is discussed.
G. Chiodo, D. R. Marsh, R. Garcia-Herrera, N. Calvo, and J. A. García
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5251–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5251-2014, 2014
A. C. Kren, D. R. Marsh, A. K. Smith, and P. Pilewskie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4843–4856, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4843-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Gases | Research Activity: Atmospheric Modelling and Data Analysis | Altitude Range: Stratosphere | Science Focus: Chemistry (chemical composition and reactions)
Ozone trends in homogenized Umkehr, ozonesonde, and COH overpass records
On the atmospheric budget of 1,2-dichloroethane and its impact on stratospheric chlorine and ozone (2002–2020)
The return to 1980 stratospheric halogen levels: a moving target in ozone assessments from 2006 to 2022
The impact of dehydration and extremely low HCl values in the Antarctic stratospheric vortex in mid-winter on ozone loss in spring
Beyond self-healing: stabilizing and destabilizing photochemical adjustment of the ozone layer
Solar FTIR measurements of NOx vertical distributions – Part 2: Experiment-based scaling factors describing the daytime variation in stratospheric NOx
Technical note: Evaluation of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Cy48R1 upgrade of June 2023
Protection without poison: Why tropical ozone maximizes in the interior of the atmosphere
Analysis of a newly homogenised ozonesonde dataset from Lauder, New Zealand
Correction of stratospheric age of air (AoA) derived from sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) for the effect of chemical sinks
Opinion: Stratospheric ozone – depletion, recovery and new challenges
Quantum yields of CHDO above 300 nm
Sensitivities of atmospheric composition and climate to altitude and latitude of hypersonic aircraft emissions
Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances over the recent past – Part 2: Impacts on ozone
N2O as a regression proxy for dynamical variability in stratospheric trace gas trends
The influence of future changes in springtime Arctic ozone on stratospheric and surface climate
Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change
The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study
The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4
Atmospheric distribution of HCN from satellite observations and 3-D model simulations
Indicators of the ozone recovery for selected sites in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes derived from various total column ozone datasets (1980–2020)
The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses
Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances over the recent past – Part 1: Stratospheric chlorine budget and the role of transport
Effects of reanalysis forcing fields on ozone trends and age of air from a chemical transport model
The influence of energetic particle precipitation on Antarctic stratospheric chlorine and ozone over the 20th century
From the middle stratosphere to the surface, using nitrous oxide to constrain the stratosphere–troposphere exchange of ozone
An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol
Processes influencing lower stratospheric water vapour in monsoon anticyclones: insights from Lagrangian modelling
Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
Slow feedbacks resulting from strongly enhanced atmospheric methane mixing ratios in a chemistry–climate model with mixed-layer ocean
Impact of the eruption of Mt Pinatubo on the chemical composition of the stratosphere
Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence
Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998
Reformulating the bromine alpha factor and equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC): evolution of ozone destruction rates of bromine and chlorine in future climate scenarios
Analysis and attribution of total column ozone changes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2017
Seasonal impact of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons on lowermost stratospheric ozone between 60° N and 60° S during the 21st century
Modelling the potential impacts of the recent, unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions on total column ozone recovery
The potential impacts of a sulfur- and halogen-rich supereruption such as Los Chocoyos on the atmosphere and climate
Technical note: Intermittent reduction of the stratospheric ozone over northern Europe caused by a storm in the Atlantic Ocean
Possible implications of enhanced chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations on ozone
Technical note: Reanalysis of Aura MLS chemical observations
Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing
Reactive nitrogen (NOy) and ozone responses to energetic electron precipitation during Southern Hemisphere winter
Implication of strongly increased atmospheric methane concentrations for chemistry–climate connections
Multitimescale variations in modeled stratospheric water vapor derived from three modern reanalysis products
How robust are stratospheric age of air trends from different reanalyses?
Evaluation of CESM1 (WACCM) free-running and specified dynamics atmospheric composition simulations using global multispecies satellite data records
Chlorine nitrate in the atmosphere
Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour
Importance of seasonally resolved oceanic emissions for bromoform delivery from the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific to the stratosphere
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeannette D. Wild, Kari Abromitis, Peter Effertz, Koji Miyagawa, Lawrence E. Flynn, Eliane Maillard Barras, Robert Damadeo, Glen McConville, Bryan Johnson, Patrick Cullis, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Gerard Ancellet, Richard Querel, Roeland Van Malderen, and Daniel Zawada
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2895–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2895-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observational records show that stratospheric ozone is recovering in accordance with the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Natural ozone variability complicates the detection of small trends. This study optimizes a statistical model fit in ground-station-based observational records by adding parameters that interpret seasonal and long-term changes in atmospheric circulation and airmass mixing, which reduces uncertainties in detecting the stratospheric ozone recovery.
Ryan Hossaini, David Sherry, Zihao Wang, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, David E. Oram, Karina E. Adcock, Stephen A. Montzka, Isobel J. Simpson, Andrea Mazzeo, Amber A. Leeson, Elliot Atlas, and Charles C.-K. Chou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13457–13475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
DCE (1,2-dichloroethane) is an industrial chemical used to produce PVC (polyvinyl chloride). We analysed DCE production data to estimate global DCE emissions (2002–2020). The emissions were included in an atmospheric model and evaluated by comparing simulated DCE to DCE measurements in the troposphere. We show that DCE contributes ozone-depleting Cl to the stratosphere and that this has increased with increasing DCE emissions. DCE’s impact on stratospheric O3 is currently small but non-zero.
Megan J. Lickley, John S. Daniel, Laura A. McBride, Ross J. Salawitch, and Guus J. M. Velders
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13081–13099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The expected ozone recovery date was delayed by 17 years between the 2006 and 2022 international scientific assessments of ozone depletion. We quantify the primary drivers of this delay. Changes in the metric used to estimate ozone recovery explain ca. 5 years of this delay. Of the remaining 12 years, changes in estimated banks, atmospheric lifetimes, and emission projections explain 4, 3.5, and 3 years of this delay, respectively.
Yiran Zhang-Liu, Rolf Müller, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Sabine Robrecht, Bärbel Vogel, Abdul Mannan Zafar, and Ralph Lehmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12557–12574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12557-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12557-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
HCl null cycles in Antarctica are important for maintaining high values of ozone-destroying chlorine in Antarctic spring. These HCl null cycles are not affected by (1) using the most recent recommendations of chemical kinetics (compared to older recommendations), (2) accounting for dehydration in the Antarctic winter vortex, and (3) considering the observed (but unexplained) depletion of HCl in mid-winter in the Antarctic vortex throughout Antarctic winter.
Aaron Match, Edwin P. Gerber, and Stephan Fueglistaler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10305–10322, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's ozone layer absorbs incoming UV light, protecting life. Removing ozone aloft allows UV light to penetrate deeper, where it is known to produce new ozone, leading to "self-healing" that partially stabilizes total ozone. However, a photochemistry model shows that, above 40 km in the tropics, deeper-penetrating UV destroys ozone, destabilizing the total ozone. Photochemical theory reveals that this destabilizing regime occurs where overhead ozone is below a key threshold.
Pinchas Nürnberg, Sarah A. Strode, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10001–10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We created a set of scaling factors describing the diurnal increase in stratospheric nitrogen oxides above Zugspitze, Germany. We used these factors to validate recently published model simulation data. On the one hand, this validation enables the use of the validated data to better understand the stratospheric photochemistry. On the other hand, it can improve satellite validation, which has implications for the understanding of urban smog events and other pollution events in the troposphere.
Henk Eskes, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Melanie Ades, Mihai Alexe, Anna Carlin Benedictow, Yasmine Bennouna, Lewis Blake, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Richard Engelen, Quentin Errera, Johannes Flemming, Sebastien Garrigues, Jan Griesfeller, Vincent Huijnen, Luka Ilić, Antje Inness, John Kapsomenakis, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Augustin Mortier, Mark Parrington, Isabelle Pison, Mikko Pitkänen, Samuel Remy, Andreas Richter, Anja Schoenhardt, Michael Schulz, Valerie Thouret, Thorsten Warneke, Christos Zerefos, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9475–9514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global analyses and forecasts of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere. On 27 June 2023 a major upgrade, Cy48R1, became operational. Comparisons with in situ, surface remote sensing, aircraft, and balloon and satellite observations show that the new CAMS system is a significant improvement. The results quantify the skill of CAMS to forecast impactful events, such as wildfires, dust storms and air pollution peaks.
Aaron Match, Edwin P. Gerber, and Stephan Fueglistaler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1552, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Explanations for the tropical ozone maximum at 26 km have fragmented into two paradigms, shown to represent limiting regimes of ozone photochemistry with production by UV and generalized destruction by catalytic cycles and transport. Paradoxically, neither paradigm explains the observed ozone peak, motivating a new theory: peak ozone occurs precisely at the transition between these regimes. An idealized analytical ozone profile is derived, helping to interpret sensitivities to UV perturbations.
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6413–6432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a homogenised ozonesonde record (1987–2020) for Lauder, a Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude site; identify factors driving ozone trends; and attribute them to anthropogenic forcings using statistical analysis and model simulations. We find that significant negative lower-stratospheric ozone trends identified at Lauder are associated with an increase in tropopause height and that CO2-driven dynamical changes have played an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends.
Hella Garny, Roland Eichinger, Johannes C. Laube, Eric A. Ray, Gabriele P. Stiller, Harald Bönisch, Laura Saunders, and Marianna Linz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4193–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4193-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transport circulation in the stratosphere is important for the distribution of tracers, but its strength is hard to measure. Mean transport times can be inferred from observations of trace gases with certain properties, such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). However, this gas has a chemical sink in the high atmosphere, which can lead to substantial biases in inferred transport times. In this paper we present a method to correct mean transport times derived from SF6 for the effects of chemical sinks.
Martyn P. Chipperfield and Slimane Bekki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2783–2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2783-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We give a personal perspective on recent issues related to the depletion of stratospheric ozone and some newly emerging challenges. We first provide a brief review of historic work on understanding the ozone layer and review ozone recovery from the effects of halogenated source gases and the Montreal Protocol. We then discuss the recent observations of ozone depletion from Australian fires in early 2020 and the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022.
Ernst-Peter Röth and Luc Vereecken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2625–2638, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the radical and molecular product quantum yields in the photolysis reaction of CHDO at wavelengths above 300 nm. Two different approaches based on literature data are used, with results falling within both approaches' uncertainty ranges. Simple functional forms are presented for use in photochemical models of the atmosphere.
Johannes Pletzer and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1743–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Very fast aircraft can travel at 30–40 km altitude and are designed to use liquid hydrogen as fuel instead of kerosene. Depending on their flight altitude, the impact of these aircraft on the atmosphere and climate can change very much. Our results show that a variation inflight latitude can have a considerably higher change in impact compared to a variation in flight altitude. Atmospheric air transport and polar stratospheric clouds play an important role in hypersonic aircraft emissions.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13701–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify, for the first time, the time-varying impact of uncontrolled emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs) on stratospheric ozone using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that Cl-VSLSs already have a non-negligible impact on stratospheric ozone, including a local reduction of up to ~7 DU in Arctic ozone in the cold winter of 2019/20, and any so future growth in emissions will continue to offset some of the benefits of the Montreal Protocol.
Kimberlee Dubé, Susann Tegtmeier, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Douglas Degenstein, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, and William Randel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13283–13300, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a technique for understanding the causes of long-term changes in stratospheric composition. By using N2O as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the model used to calculated trends, it is possible to separate the effects of dynamics and chemistry on observed trace gas trends. We find that observed HCl increases are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation, as are O3 decreases above 30 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere.
Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Daniela Domeisen, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10451–10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past, but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratospheric climate and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, James Keeble, Thomas Peter, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Eugene Rozanov, David Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, and Béatrice Josse
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10235–10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previously, it has been suggested that springtime Arctic ozone depletion might worsen in the coming decades due to climate change, which might counteract the effect of reduced ozone-depleting substances. Here, we show with different chemistry–climate models that springtime Arctic ozone depletion will likely decrease in the future. Further, we explain why models show a large spread in the projected development of Arctic ozone depletion and use the model spread to constrain future projections.
Thomas Reddmann, Miriam Sinnhuber, Jan Maik Wissing, Olesya Yakovchuk, and Ilya Usoskin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6989–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent analyses of isotopic records of ice cores and sediments have shown that very strong explosions may occur on the Sun, perhaps about one such explosion every 1000 years. Such explosions pose a real threat to humankind. It is therefore of great interest to study the impact of such explosions on Earth. We analyzed how the explosions would affect the chemistry of the middle atmosphere and show that the related ozone loss is not dramatic and that the atmosphere will recover within 1 year.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4801–4817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4801-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The future ozone evolution in SOCOLv4 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios has been assessed for the period 2015–2099 and subperiods using the DLM approach. The SOCOLv4 projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and in the 2060s in SSP5-8.5. The stratospheric ozone increase is ~3 times higher in SSP5-8.5, confirming the important role of GHGs in ozone evolution. We also showed that tropospheric ozone strongly impacts the total column in the tropics.
Antonio G. Bruno, Jeremy J. Harrison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, David P. Moore, Richard J. Pope, Christopher Wilson, Emmanuel Mahieu, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4849–4861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4849-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4849-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3-D chemical transport model, TOMCAT; satellite data; and ground-based observations have been used to investigate hydrogen cyanide (HCN) variability. We found that the oxidation by O(1D) drives the HCN loss in the middle stratosphere and the currently JPL-recommended OH reaction rate overestimates HCN atmospheric loss. We also evaluated two different ocean uptake schemes. We found them to be unrealistic, and we need to scale these schemes to obtain good agreement with HCN observations.
Janusz Krzyścin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3119–3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3119-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose indices to obtain the current stage of total column ozone (TCO3) recovery attributed to ozone-depleting substance (ODS) changes in the stratosphere. The indices are calculated using TCO3 values in key years of the ODS changes. The ozone recovery stage is derived for 16 sites in the NH mid-latitudes using results from ground and satellite measurements and reanalysis data. In Europe, there is a slow TCO3 recovery. A continuous TCO3 decline has been occurring in some sites since 1980.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Jan Sedlacek, William Ball, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15333–15350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15333-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Applying the dynamic linear model, we confirm near-global ozone recovery (55°N–55°S) in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the troposphere. We also show that modern chemistry–climate models (CCMs) like SOCOLv4 may reproduce the observed trend distribution of lower stratospheric ozone, despite exhibiting a lower magnitude and statistical significance. The obtained ozone trend pattern in SOCOLv4 is generally consistent with observations and reanalysis datasets.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
Yajuan Li, Sandip S. Dhomse, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Andreas Chrysanthou, Yuan Xia, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10635–10656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10635-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10635-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical transport models forced with (re)analysis meteorological fields are ideally suited for interpreting the influence of important physical processes on the ozone variability. We use TOMCAT forced by ECMWF ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis data sets to investigate the effects of reanalysis forcing fields on ozone changes. Our results show that models forced by ERA5 reanalyses may not yet be capable of reproducing observed changes in stratospheric ozone, particularly in the lower stratosphere.
Ville Maliniemi, Pavle Arsenovic, Annika Seppälä, and Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8137–8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on Antarctic stratospheric ozone chemistry over the whole 20th century. We find a significant increase of reactive nitrogen due to EP, which can deplete ozone via a catalytic reaction. Furthermore, significant modulation of active chlorine is obtained related to EPP, which impacts ozone depletion by both active chlorine and EPP. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of ozone chemistry during the CFC era.
Daniel J. Ruiz and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is an important source of tropospheric ozone, which affects climate, chemistry, and air quality, but is extremely difficult to quantify given the large production and loss terms in the troposphere. Here, we use other gases that are well observed and quantified as a reference to test our simulations of ozone transport in the atmosphere. This allows us to better constrain the stratospheric source of ozone and also offers guidance to improve future simulations of ozone transport.
Catherine Wilka, Susan Solomon, Doug Kinnison, and David Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15771–15781, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use satellite and balloon measurements to evaluate modeled ozone loss seen in the unusually cold Arctic of 2020 in the real world and compare it to simulations of a world avoided. We show that extensive denitrification in 2020 provides an important test case for stratospheric model process representations. If the Montreal Protocol had not banned ozone-depleting substances, an Arctic ozone hole would have emerged for the first time in spring 2020 that is comparable to those in the Antarctic.
Nuria Pilar Plaza, Aurélien Podglajen, Cristina Peña-Ortiz, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9585–9607, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9585-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9585-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We study the role of different processes in setting the lower stratospheric water vapour. We find that mechanisms involving ice microphysics and small-scale mixing produce the strongest increase in water vapour, in particular over the Asian Monsoon. Small-scale mixing has a special relevance as it improves the agreement with observations at seasonal and intra-seasonal timescales, contrary to the North American Monsoon case, in which large-scale temperatures still dominate its variability.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of strongly increased atmospheric methane mixing ratios on the Earth's climate. An interactive model system including atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and a mixed-layer ocean model is used to analyse the effect of doubled and quintupled methane mixing ratios. We assess feedbacks on atmospheric chemistry and changes in the stratospheric circulation, focusing on the impact of tropospheric warming, and their relevance for the model's climate sensitivity.
Markus Kilian, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11697–11715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
After the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991, ozone decreased in the tropics and increased in the midlatitudes and polar regions for 1 year. The change in the ozone column is solely a result of the volcanic heating, followed by an ozone decrease in the higher latitudes. This is caused by the volcanic aerosol, which changes the heterogeneous chemistry and thus the catalytic ozone loss cycles. Vertical transport of water vapour is enhanced by volcanic heating and increases methane.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
William T. Ball, Gabriel Chiodo, Marta Abalos, Justin Alsing, and Andrea Stenke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9737–9752, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Recent lower stratospheric ozone decreases remain unexplained. We show that chemistry–climate models are not generally able to reproduce mid-latitude ozone and water vapour changes. Our analysis of observations provides evidence that climate change may be responsible for the ozone trends. While model projections suggest that extratropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their efficacy in simulating lower stratospheric changes in this region.
J. Eric Klobas, Debra K. Weisenstein, Ross J. Salawitch, and David M. Wilmouth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9459–9471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The rates of important ozone-destroying chemical reactions in the stratosphere are likely to change in the future. We employ a computer model to evaluate how the rates of ozone destruction by chlorine and bromine may evolve in four climate change scenarios with the introduction of the eta factor. We then show how these changing rates will impact the ozone-depleting power of the stratosphere with a new metric known as Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Benchmark-normalized Chlorine (EESBnC).
Yajuan Li, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, Sandip S. Dhomse, Richard J. Pope, Faquan Li, and Dong Guo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8627–8639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts important thermal and dynamical effects on atmospheric circulation, climate change as well as the ozone distribution. In this study, we use updated observations and model simulations to investigate the ozone trends and variations over the TP. Wintertime TP ozone variations are largely controlled by tropical to high-latitude transport processes, whereas summertime concentrations are a combined effect of photochemical decay and tropical processes.
Javier Alejandro Barrera, Rafael Pedro Fernandez, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Carlos Alberto Cuevas, Jean-Francois Lamarque, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8083–8102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The inclusion of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons (VSLBr) in the CAM-chem model improves the model–satellite agreement of the total ozone columns at mid-latitudes and drives a persistent hemispheric asymmetry in lowermost stratospheric ozone loss. The seasonal VSLBr impact on mid-latitude lowermost stratospheric ozone is influenced by the heterogeneous reactivation processes of inorganic chlorine on ice crystals, with a clear increase in ozone destruction during spring and winter.
James Keeble, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Paul T. Griffiths, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7153–7166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7153-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Montreal Protocol was agreed in 1987 to limit and then stop the production of man-made CFCs, which destroy stratospheric ozone. As a result, the atmospheric abundances of CFCs are now declining in the atmosphere. However, the atmospheric abundance of CFC-11 is not declining as expected under complete compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model, we explore the impact of future unregulated production of CFC-11 on ozone recovery.
Hans Brenna, Steffen Kutterolf, Michael J. Mills, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6521–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Los Chocoyos supereruption (84 000 years ago) in Guatemala was one of the largest volcanic events of the last 100 000 years. This eruption released enormous amounts of sulfur, which cooled the climate, as well as chlorine and bromine, which destroyed the ozone in the stratosphere. We have simulated this eruption by using an advanced chemistry–climate model. We found a collapse in the ozone layer lasting more than 10 years, increased surface–UV radiation, and a 30-year climate-cooling period.
Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Risto Hänninen, and Viktoria F. Sofieva
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1839–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1839-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1839-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An episode of anomalously low ozone concentrations in the stratosphere over northern Europe occurred on 3–5 November 2018. The 30 % reduction of the ozone layer was predicted by the global chemistry-transport model of the Finnish Meteorological Institute driven by weather forecasts of ECMWF. The reduction was subsequently observed by ozone monitoring satellites. The episode was caused by a storm in the northern Atlantic, which uplifted air from the troposphere to stratosphere.
Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, and Matthias Nützel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13759–13771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13759-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13759-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A chemistry–climate model (CCM) study is performed, investigating the consequences of a constant CFC-11 surface mixing ratio for stratospheric ozone in the future. The total column ozone is particularly affected in both polar regions in winter and spring. It turns out that the calculated ozone changes, especially in the upper stratosphere, are smaller than expected. In this attitudinal region the additional ozone depletion due to the catalysis by reactive chlorine is partly compensated for.
Quentin Errera, Simon Chabrillat, Yves Christophe, Jonas Debosscher, Daan Hubert, William Lahoz, Michelle L. Santee, Masato Shiotani, Sergey Skachko, Thomas von Clarmann, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13647–13679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13647-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
BRAM2 is a 13-year reanalysis of the chemical composition from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere based on the assimilation of the Microwave Limb Sounder observations where eight species are assimilated: O3, H2O, N2O, HNO3, HCl, ClO, CH3Cl and CO. BRAM2 agrees generally well with independent observations in the middle stratosphere, the polar vortex and the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere but also shows several issues in the model and in the observations.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Braesicke, Paul J. Telford, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9833–9846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric response to the amplitude of 11-year solar cycle in UM-UKCA is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates, and the results compared with a control case with both effects included. We find that while the tropical responses are largely additive, this is not necessarily the case in the high latitudes. We suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle.
Pavle Arsenovic, Alessandro Damiani, Eugene Rozanov, Bernd Funke, Andrea Stenke, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9485–9494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Low-energy electrons (LEE) are the dominant source of odd nitrogen, which destroys ozone, in the mesosphere and stratosphere in polar winter in the geomagnetically active periods. However, the observed stratospheric ozone anomalies can be reproduced only when accounting for both low- and middle-range energy electrons (MEE) in the chemistry-climate model. Ozone changes may induce further dynamical and thermal changes in the atmosphere. We recommend including both LEE and MEE in climate models.
Franziska Winterstein, Fabian Tanalski, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, and Michael Ponater
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7151–7163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7151-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7151-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric concentrations of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas methane are predicted to rise in the future. In this paper we investigate how very strong methane concentrations will impact the atmosphere. We analyse two experiments, one with doubled and one with quintupled methane concentrations and focus on the rapid atmospheric changes before the ocean adjusts to the induced
forcing. In particular these are changes in temperature, ozone, the hydroxyl radical and stratospheric water vapour.
Mengchu Tao, Paul Konopka, Felix Ploeger, Xiaolu Yan, Jonathon S. Wright, Mohamadou Diallo, Stephan Fueglistaler, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6509–6534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6509-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6509-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper examines the annual and interannual variations as well as long-term trend of modeled stratospheric water vapor with a Lagrangian chemical transport model driven by ERA-I, MERRA-2 and JRA-55. We find reasonable consistency among the annual cycle, QBO and the variabilities induced by ENSO and volcanic aerosols. The main discrepancies are linked to the differences in reanalysis upwelling rates in the lower stratosphere. The trends are sensitive to the reanalyses that drives the model.
Felix Ploeger, Bernard Legras, Edward Charlesworth, Xiaolu Yan, Mohamadou Diallo, Paul Konopka, Thomas Birner, Mengchu Tao, Andreas Engel, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6085–6105, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6085-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6085-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the change in the circulation of the middle atmosphere based on current generation meteorological reanalysis data sets. We find that long-term changes from 1989 to 2015 are similar for the chosen reanalyses, mainly resembling the forced response in climate model simulations to climate change. For shorter periods circulation changes are less robust, and the representation of decadal variability appears to be a major uncertainty for modelling the circulation of the middle atmosphere.
Lucien Froidevaux, Douglas E. Kinnison, Ray Wang, John Anderson, and Ryan A. Fuller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4783–4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates two versions of a 3-D global model of upper-atmospheric composition for recent decades. The two versions differ mainly in their dynamical (wind) constraints. Model–data differences, variability, and trends in five gases (ozone, H2O, HCl, HNO3, and N2O) are compared. While the match between models and observations is impressive, a few areas of discrepancy are noted. This work also updates trends in composition based on recent satellite-based measurements (through 2018).
Thomas von Clarmann and Sören Johansson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15363–15386, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15363-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15363-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This review article compiles the characteristics of the gas chlorine nitrate and discusses its role in atmospheric chemistry. Chlorine nitrate is a reservoir of both stratospheric chlorine and nitrogen. Formation and sink processes are discussed, as well as spectral features and spectroscopic studies. Remote sensing, fluorescence, and mass spectroscopic measurement techniques are introduced, and global distributions and the annual cycle are discussed in the context of chlorine de-/activation.
Laura Thölix, Alexey Karpechko, Leif Backman, and Rigel Kivi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15047–15067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the impact of water vapour (WV) on Arctic ozone loss and find the strongest impact during intermediately cold stratospheric winters when chlorine activation increases with increasing PSCs and WV. In colder winters the impact is limited because chlorine activation becomes complete at relatively low WV values, so further addition of WV does not affect ozone loss. Our results imply that improved simulations of WV are needed for more reliable projections of ozone layer recovery.
Alina Fiehn, Birgit Quack, Irene Stemmler, Franziska Ziska, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11973–11990, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11973-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11973-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic very short-lived substances, VSLS, contribute to stratospheric halogen loading and ozone depletion. We created bromoform emission inventories with monthly resolution for the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific and modeled the atmospheric transport of bromoform with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART/ERA-Interim. Results underline that the seasonal and regional stratospheric bromine entrainment critically depends on the seasonality and spatial distribution of the VSLS emissions.
Cited articles
Anderson, J. G., Toohey, D. W., and Brune, W. H.: Free radicals within the Antarctic vortex: the role of CFCs in Antarctic ozone loss, Science, 251, 39–46, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.251.4989.39, 1991. a
Andersson, M. E., Verronen, P. T., Marsh, D. R., Seppälä, A., Päivärinta, S., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., Kalakoski, N., and van de Kamp, M.: Polar ozone response to energetic particle precipitation over decadal time ccales: the role of medium-energy electrons, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 607–622, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027605, 2018. a
Arsenovic, P., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Funke, B., Wissing, J. M., Mursula, K., Tummon, F., and Peter, F.: The influence of middle range energy electrons on atmospheric chemistry and regional climate, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phy., 149, 180–190, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2016.04.008, 2016. a
Asikainen, T., Salminen, A., Maliniemi, V., and Mursula, K.: Influence of enhanced planetary wave activity on the polar vortex enhancement related to energetic electron precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032137, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032137, 2020. a
Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Jöckel, P., Dameris, M., and Crutzen, P. J.: Will climate change increase ozone depletion from low-energy-electron precipitation?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9647–9656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9647-2010, 2010. a
Brasseur, G. P. and Solomon, S.: Aeronomy of the middle atmosphere, Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 2005. a
Butchart, N.: The Brewer–Dobson circulation, Rev. Geophys., 52, 157–184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000448, 2014. a, b
Cicerone, R. J.: Changes in stratospheric ozone, Science, 237, 35–42, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.237.4810.35, 1987. a
Cleveland, W. S. and Devlin, S. J.: Locally-weighted regression: an approach to regression analysis by local fitting, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 596–610, https://doi.org/10.2307/2289282, 1988. a
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10071, 2019a. a
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10026, 2019b. a
Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Stiller, G. P., and Clarmann, T.: Mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation during 2002–2012, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 4429–4446, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021404, 2014. a
Garcia, R. R.: Transport of thermospheric NOx to the stratosphere and mesosphere, Adv. Space Res., 12, 57–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/0273-1177(92)90444-3, 1992. a
Garcia, R. R. and Randel, W. J.: Acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation due to increases in greenhouse gases, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 2731–2739, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2712.1, 2008.
a, b
Gérard, J.-C., Roble, R. G., Rusch, D. W., and Stewart, A. I.: The global distribution of thermospheric odd nitrogen for solstice conditions during solar cycle minimum, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 89, 1725–1738, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA089iA03p01725, 1984. a, b
Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Bacmeister, J. T., Neale, R. B., Pendergrass, A. G., Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Fasullo, J. T., Bailey, D. A., Lawrence, D. M., and Mills, M. J.: High climate sensitivity in the community earth system model version 2 (CESM2), Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8329–8337, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978, 2019. a
Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Vitt, F. M., Garcia, R. R., Fleming, E. L., Labow, G. J., Randall, C. E., López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., von Clarmann, T., and Stiller, G. P.: Short- and medium-term atmospheric constituent effects of very large solar proton events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 765–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-765-2008, 2008. a
Kirner, O., Ruhnke, R., and Sinnhuber, B.-M.: Chemistry–climate interactions of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone in EMAC long-term simulations with different boundary conditions for CO2, CH4, N2O, and ODS, Atmos. Ocean, 53, 140–152, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2014.980718, 2015. a, b, c
Langematz, U.: Future ozone in a changing climate, C. R. Geosci., 350, 403–409, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2018.06.015, 2018. a, b, c, d
Lary, D. J.: Catalytic destruction of stratospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 21515–21526, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00912, 1997. a, b
le Texier, H., Solomon, S., and Garcia, R. R.: The role of molecular hydrogen and methane oxidation in the water vapour budget of the stratosphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 281–295, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711448002, 1988. a
Li, F., Stolarski, R. S., and Newman, P. A.: Stratospheric ozone in the post-CFC era, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2207–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-2207-2009, 2009. a
Maliniemi, V., Asikainen, T., and Mursula, K.: Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 9752–9764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021343, 2014. a
Mann, H. B.: Non-parametric test against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945. a
Marsh, D. R., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Calvo, N., and Polvani, L. M.: Climate change from 1850 to 2005 simulated in CESM1(WACCM), J. Climate, 26, 7372–7391, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00558.1, 2013. a
Matthes, K., Funke, B., Andersson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman, C. H., Kretzschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R., Maycock, A. C., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppälä, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., van de Kamp, M., Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020. a, b
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a
Randall, C. E., Harvey, V. L., Singleton, C. S., Bernath, P. F., Boone, C. D., and Kozyra, J. U.: Enhanced NOx in 2006 linked to strong upper stratospheric Arctic vortex, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18811, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027160, 2006. a
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Silva, L. A. D., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a, b, c
Salminen, A., Asikainen, T., Maliniemi, V., and Mursula, K.: Effect of energetic electron precipitation on the northern polar vortex: explaining the QBO modulation via control of meridional circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 5807–5821, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029296, 2019. a
Shepherd, T. G.: Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change, Atmos. Ocean, 46, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.460106, 2008. a
Smith, A. K., Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., and Richter, J. H.: WACCM simulations of the mean circulation and trace species transport in the winter mesosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D20115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016083, 2011. a
Solomon, S., Crutzen, P. J., and Roble, R. G.: Photochemical coupling between the thermosphere and the lower atmosphere: 1. odd nitrogen from 50 to 120 km, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 7206–7220, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC09p07206, 1982. a
Solomon, S., Ivy, D. J., Kinnison, D., Mills, M. J., Neely, R. R., and Schmidt, A.: Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer, Science, 353, 269–274, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aae0061, 2016. a, b
Stolarski, R. S., Douglass, A. R., Oman, L. D., and Waugh, D. W.: Impact of future nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions on the stratospheric ozone layer, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 034011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034011, 2015. a
Velders, G. J. M., Andersen, S. O., Daniel, J. S., Fahey, D. W., and McFarland, M.: The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 4814–4819, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610328104, 2007.
a, b, c
Wilks, D. S.: “The stippling shows statistically significant grid points”: how research results are routinely overstated and overinterpreted, and what to do about it, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 2263–2273, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00267.1, 2016.
a
Short summary
We simulate ozone variability over the 21st century with different greenhouse gas scenarios. Our results highlight a novel mechanism of additional reactive nitrogen species descending to the Antarctic stratosphere from the thermosphere/upper mesosphere due to the accelerated residual circulation under climate change. This excess descending NOx can potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.
We simulate ozone variability over the 21st century with different greenhouse gas scenarios. Our...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint