Articles | Volume 20, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 26 Aug 2020
| 26 Aug 2020
Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence
Matt Amos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Paul J. Young
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Centre of Excellence in Environmental Data Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
J. Scott Hosking
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Jean-François Lamarque
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
N. Luke Abraham
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Leeds, LS2 9PH, UK
Hideharu Akiyoshi
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
Alexander T. Archibald
Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Leeds, LS2 9PH, UK
Slimane Bekki
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
Makoto Deushi
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Patrick Jöckel
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Douglas Kinnison
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
Ole Kirner
Steinbuch Centre for Computing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Markus Kunze
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Marion Marchand
LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France
David A. Plummer
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canada
David Saint-Martin
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Kengo Sudo
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Simone Tilmes
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
Yousuke Yamashita
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean I. Ivanciu et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022
- Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework L. Brunner et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1
- Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole Q. Lu 10.1063/5.0047661
- How skillful was the projected temperature over China during 2002–2018? D. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.scib.2022.02.004
- Wildfire smoke destroys stratospheric ozone P. Bernath et al. 10.1126/science.abm5611
- South Pole Station ozonesondes: variability and trends in the springtime Antarctic ozone hole 1986–2021 B. Johnson et al. 10.5194/acp-23-3133-2023
- Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models Y. Zhao et al. 10.1007/s00376-022-1401-2
- Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change M. Friedel et al. 10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023
- A SPATIOTEMPORAL-AWARE WEIGHTING SCHEME FOR IMPROVING CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS M. Fan et al. 10.1615/JMachLearnModelComput.2022046715
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00648-8
- Indicators of Antarctic ozone depletion: 1979 to 2019 G. Bodeker & S. Kremser 10.5194/acp-21-5289-2021
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al. 10.5194/npg-31-303-2024
- Polar Stratospheric Clouds Detection at Belgrano II Antarctic Station with Visible Ground-Based Spectroscopic Measurements L. Gomez-Martin et al. 10.3390/rs13081412
- Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions D. Befort et al. 10.1029/2022GL098568
- Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
- Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States A. Wootten et al. 10.5194/esd-14-121-2023
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean I. Ivanciu et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022
- Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework L. Brunner et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1
- Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole Q. Lu 10.1063/5.0047661
- How skillful was the projected temperature over China during 2002–2018? D. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.scib.2022.02.004
- Wildfire smoke destroys stratospheric ozone P. Bernath et al. 10.1126/science.abm5611
- South Pole Station ozonesondes: variability and trends in the springtime Antarctic ozone hole 1986–2021 B. Johnson et al. 10.5194/acp-23-3133-2023
- Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models Y. Zhao et al. 10.1007/s00376-022-1401-2
- Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change M. Friedel et al. 10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023
- A SPATIOTEMPORAL-AWARE WEIGHTING SCHEME FOR IMPROVING CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS M. Fan et al. 10.1615/JMachLearnModelComput.2022046715
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00648-8
- Indicators of Antarctic ozone depletion: 1979 to 2019 G. Bodeker & S. Kremser 10.5194/acp-21-5289-2021
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al. 10.5194/npg-31-303-2024
- Polar Stratospheric Clouds Detection at Belgrano II Antarctic Station with Visible Ground-Based Spectroscopic Measurements L. Gomez-Martin et al. 10.3390/rs13081412
- Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions D. Befort et al. 10.1029/2022GL098568
- Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
- Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States A. Wootten et al. 10.5194/esd-14-121-2023
Latest update: 03 Jul 2025
Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of...
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